1. #1
    the Great Gatsby
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    is there a way to predict the outcome from the odds movement?

    i m new to betting so i dont know
    i ve heard about the site https://www.oddsportal.com/
    but people told me its a free and not trustworthy site


    what do you think?

  2. #2
    XSTRAIGHTXEDGEX
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    Quote Originally Posted by the Great Gatsby View Post
    i m new to betting so i dont know
    i ve heard about the site https://www.oddsportal.com/
    but people told me its a free and not trustworthy site


    what do you think?
    I wouldn’t be asking these guys. LMAO


    wait for it……

  3. #3
    KVB
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    Actually, there is, but using ancillary information becomes critical now.

    It used to be much easier to tag the market based solely on movement but the bookmakers are well aware of this and now use it to their advantage.

    The bookmakers have goals, long term and short, and will stop at nothing to get there. The originators (many are also bookmakers now) know this and also work with the bookmakers to exploit it.

    So yeah, it's there, but it's much much more difficult now and you almost had to experience the earlier days to understand how it works now.

    Unfortunately not even historical raw data that I can give you will subsitute for experience when it comes to this topic.

    Maybe I can walk us through some examples as they happen here, I'll see what I can offer.

    Good Luck.

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  4. #4
    jacksonstreet
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    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    Actually, there is, but using ancillary information becomes critical now.

    It used to be much easier to tag the market based solely on movement but the bookmakers are well aware of this and now use it to their advantage.

    The bookmakers have goals, long term and short, and will stop at nothing to get there. The originators (many are also bookmakers now) know this and also work with the bookmakers to exploit it.

    So yeah, it's there, but it's much much more difficult now and you almost had to experience the earlier days to understand how it works now.

    Unfortunately not even historical raw data that I can give you will subsitute for experience when it comes to this topic.

    Maybe I can walk us through some examples as they happen here, I'll see what I can offer.

    Good Luck.

    please do - your opinion is always valued!

  5. #5
    TheGoldenGoose
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    Live movement. Us OG's call it "Steam". Bookmakers will tag you a "Steam Player".

  6. #6
    Gaze73
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    Yes, but it's not as simple as betting on the steamers, because when a team goes from evens to -200 then the value can be on the other side.

  7. #7
    the Great Gatsby
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gaze73 View Post
    Yes, but it's not as simple as betting on the steamers, because when a team goes from evens to -200 then the value can be on the other side.
    thats irelevant with the thread

  8. #8
    d2bets
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    Quote Originally Posted by the Great Gatsby View Post
    thats irelevant with the thread
    No, it's not. It's completely relevant. Line movement doesn't "predict winners". It "predicts different probabilities from the original line. If you can't understand this conceptually, you are never going to be a winner. Pro bettors don't "predict winners". They bet value. The odds matter. The odds always matter. If it didn't you could just buy up a massive number of points and you will probably have a "winner", albeit likely a terrible wager.

    Soak that in and then also listen to KVB.
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  9. #9
    Gaze73
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    Quote Originally Posted by d2bets View Post
    No, it's not. It's completely relevant. Line movement doesn't "predict winners". It "predicts different probabilities from the original line. If you can't understand this conceptually, you are never going to be a winner. Pro bettors don't "predict winners". They bet value. The odds matter. The odds always matter. If it didn't you could just buy up a massive number of points and you will probably have a "winner", albeit likely a terrible wager.

    Soak that in and then also listen to KVB.
    Exactly. I've seen many teams steam from +500 to -500 and lose and I've also seen teams drift from +100 to +1000 and win. Not even C squads in dead rubber games are guaranteed to lose. Unless a game is fixed there is no sure thing.

  10. #10
    the Great Gatsby
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    Should i bother by checking sites with dropping odds or not?

    what do you say?

  11. #11
    semibluff
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    Quote Originally Posted by the Great Gatsby View Post
    Should i bother by checking sites with dropping odds or not?

    what do you say?
    SBR are very good at showing and updating a small number of US facing books, and their affiliates. If you want US facing odds use the SBR odds page. The only European facing books SBR show are Bet365 and Wm. Hill. If you want European odds you would be better off using Oddschecker. Oddschecker also had some of the newer Philadelphia based books on their US page.

    Oddsportal has a bigger range of books but personally I find their site less user friendly and they have a considerable number of 'questionable' books. I can't comment on their updating of odds because I rarely look at their site.

    Whether you think dropping prices are a good indicator of 'above odds bet winning probability' is up to you. I can only offer you my unscientific, anecdotal observation. I follow the NFL but i'm not good enough to bet NFL games with any expectation of winning money. For 4 years I having been playing spread pick'ems. Pick'em lines are posted on Tuesdays. I make picks with 1 account on Tuesdays and this account hits at about 51.2%. That's better than a blind guess but it's not enough to cover standard juice. I compare these picks with a 2nd account that I make picks with on Sundays. The Sundays' picks have the advantage of knowing the market moves and 'betting' against Tuesdays' spreads. Over 1024 picks the Sundays' picks tally is only 10 more wins, (which is an improvement of just under 1% and still not enough to break even against normal juice). I could post some reasons why my pick results might be so unimpressive, but that's not what you want. My conclusion is that 'chasing steam' will help, but not as much as you'd think. For many it will merely lower the loss %. My advice is to improve on your own bet value analysis rather than looking for a strategy short-cut.

  12. #12
    Darkside Magick
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    I knew a Analyst when I was at Merrill Lynch who took line movement and converted to Japanese Candlesticks
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  13. #13
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by Darkside Magick View Post
    I knew a Analyst when I was at Merrill Lynch who took line movement and converted to Japanese Candlesticks
    I've been showing by example over the years the use of charting the markets, using special market tracking handicapping, and we've had some serious stock comparisons. I was going to get into the candlestick ideas but thought I'd keep expanding ont he current charts.

    Moving on from SMA to EMA and maybe even discussing the slope of some differences. There is so much I can lay over my market tracking charts.

    I have never seen anyone in the world do what I do, and post what I post, but I know that what I'm doing is being done.

    I've tried to show by example, but realize I am leaving a lot out in my analysis.

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  14. #14
    Darkside Magick
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    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    I've been showing by example over the years the use of charting the markets, using special market tracking handicapping, and we've had some serious stock comparisons. I was going to get into the candlestick ideas but thought I'd keep expanding ont he current charts.

    Moving on from SMA to EMA and maybe even discussing the slope of some differences. There is so much I can lay over my market tracking charts.

    I have never seen anyone in the world do what I do, and post what I post, but I know that what I'm doing is being done.

    I've tried to show by example, but realize I am leaving a lot out in my analysis.
    He would also use Gann square of 9 looking at angles before converting... Made of money but it was mainly recreational because of limits

    I took small aspects from it when I created my algorithm.. As the algorithm track line movements and adjust probabilities with current odds

  15. #15
    d2bets
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    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    I've been showing by example over the years the use of charting the markets, using special market tracking handicapping, and we've had some serious stock comparisons. I was going to get into the candlestick ideas but thought I'd keep expanding ont he current charts.

    Moving on from SMA to EMA and maybe even discussing the slope of some differences. There is so much I can lay over my market tracking charts.

    I have never seen anyone in the world do what I do, and post what I post, but I know that what I'm doing is being done.

    I've tried to show by example, but realize I am leaving a lot out in my analysis.
    But can't y'all just pick some winners?
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  16. #16
    vivablu
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    Quote Originally Posted by d2bets View Post
    No, it's not. It's completely relevant. Line movement doesn't "predict winners". It "predicts different probabilities from the original line. If you can't understand this conceptually, you are never going to be a winner. Pro bettors don't "predict winners". They bet value. The odds matter. The odds always matter. If it didn't you could just buy up a massive number of points and you will probably have a "winner", albeit likely a terrible wager.
    Soak that in and then also listen to KVB.
    What you say is betting 101 but unfortunately most here or most of the American bettors will not grasp it. Most american bettors are used to touts, weather it is modern day touts or old school touts on television, hyping things up with winning %, game of the day, week, month, year etc that promises richness overnight and they are always betting with that mind set with no regards to value betting. The marketers pretending to be handicappers in the tout industry pry on the gullible using this method. Most good handicappers that make a living from sports betting hit 45 to 54% over the long term. If you tell this to this to a typical american gambler, they cannot get around the fact that someone can make a killing hitting just around or below 50% because they they have this idea that one has to hit 53% of or better to make profit. They don't realize that 53% or better is true only if you are playing -110 odds for the same amount repeatedly. Take a look at this handicappers sample of nearly 2000 picks. The hit rate during this period is just under 50% but the profit is insane. This happens by value betting various odds and various stakes based on the odds. And the max bet is is no more than 3%. The dashboard of the spreadsheet shows the unit results with compounding method and flat betting method. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...gid=1164341153 This type of betting requires handicapping skill and as well as very strict discipline. If you hand these picks out to most here, they will find ways to lose it because they won't have the patience to bet like that.

  17. #17
    the Great Gatsby
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    boys please
    the thread is about odds movement NOT the theory of betting
    check this site

    https://txmarkets.com/

  18. #18
    u21c3f6
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    is there a way to predict the outcome from the odds movement?

    Yes, some of the time

    “Should i bother by checking sites with dropping odds or not?”

    Depends on your objective and what information you expect to garner from checking these sites. My focus is where are the best odds I can get for the selections I want to wager on, not whether they are dropping or not and not for wagering selection purposes.

    You keep saying that others are posting irrelevant info. I don’t know if that is because you are truly “new” at this or you just want people to look at these particular sites but let me share this with you.

    We had another poster here a while ago who said he was “new” and wanted to learn but everytime someone tried to share something with him he would shoot it down because he was sure that his way was the true and only way to do things. So he proceeded to show us why we should think of him as a good handicapper. His method was to beat the closing line. He started his spreadsheets 3 times for this forum and yes, his selections would beat the closing line on average about 1-2%. This in his opinion was the only measure of a good handicapper. Congratulations, he did it!

    The problem in my opinion was that he was losing on average 8-10% of dollars wagered. Some would say it was variance (I am not in that camp). Bottom line is that while he accomplished what he set out to do, what he really wanted was to be profitable but he was not.

    If your goal is to make selections based on dropping odds, that can be done. Of course there will be many selections with dropping odds that will lose. In the end, isn’t the real goal: to be profitable?

    Joe.

  19. #19
    Roger T. Bannon
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    The answer to this question is technically No.

    You can predict winners from odds movement but you are not actually predicting winners you are following someone else's bet. They are predicting winners. Not you. You are copying them.

    The market generally gets it right so if you are able to bet odds that have not yet moved you will be "predicting" a winner because that is what someone else is doing and they will probably win.

    So the question is as a new bettor, do you want to sit around and copy the picks of winners or do you want to be the winner. The first is the easiest. The second is the most profitable.

  20. #20
    Roger T. Bannon
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    Quote Originally Posted by semibluff View Post
    Whether you think dropping prices are a good indicator of 'above odds bet winning probability' is up to you. I can only offer you my unscientific, anecdotal observation. I follow the NFL but i'm not good enough to bet NFL games with any expectation of winning money. For 4 years I having been playing spread pick'ems. Pick'em lines are posted on Tuesdays. I make picks with 1 account on Tuesdays and this account hits at about 51.2%. That's better than a blind guess but it's not enough to cover standard juice. I compare these picks with a 2nd account that I make picks with on Sundays. The Sundays' picks have the advantage of knowing the market moves and 'betting' against Tuesdays' spreads. Over 1024 picks the Sundays' picks tally is only 10 more wins, (which is an improvement of just under 1% and still not enough to break even against normal juice). I could post some reasons why my pick results might be so unimpressive, but that's not what you want. My conclusion is that 'chasing steam' will help, but not as much as you'd think. For many it will merely lower the loss %. My advice is to improve on your own bet value analysis rather than looking for a strategy short-cut.
    This is pretty interesting. What exactly are you doing here? Give an example of a Tuesday bet that you have made and why and an example of a Sunday bet that you have made and why. This is how you generally bet on NFL games? Or are you just tracking this to determine how the strategy would work?

  21. #21
    Roger T. Bannon
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    Quote Originally Posted by the Great Gatsby View Post
    boys please
    the thread is about odds movement NOT the theory of betting
    check this site

    https://txmarkets.com/
    This sort of thing is for weighing the value of odds moves. This would be professional level stuff. It might have some value if you had an intricate understanding of how the markets worked. This would be a really advanced betting method. Not something a beginner can pull off.
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  22. #22
    Gaze73
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    Quote Originally Posted by the Great Gatsby View Post
    boys please
    the thread is about odds movement NOT the theory of betting
    check this site

    https://txmarkets.com/
    What are your expectations? You think that if a line moves by 20% in favor of one team it means they are 99% sure to win? If it were that easy everone would do it.

  23. #23
    d2bets
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gaze73 View Post
    What are your expectations? You think that if a line moves by 20% in favor of one team it means they are 99% sure to win? If it were that easy everone would do it.
    99%? Of course not. It's not about finding 99% edges. It's about finding small advantages. Find +EV bets, bet them frequently, and hit them hard. And have a bankroll to deal with variance.

    Line moves don't predict winners, but they can predict expected value.
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  24. #24
    Gaze73
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    Quote Originally Posted by d2bets View Post
    99%? Of course not. It's not about finding 99% edges. It's about finding small advantages. Find +EV bets, bet them frequently, and hit them hard. And have a bankroll to deal with variance.

    Line moves don't predict winners, but they can predict expected value.
    I know that, but OP wants winners based on line movements.

  25. #25
    semibluff
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger T. Bannon View Post
    This is pretty interesting. What exactly are you doing here? Give an example of a Tuesday bet that you have made and why and an example of a Sunday bet that you have made and why. This is how you generally bet on NFL games? Or are you just tracking this to determine how the strategy would work?
    These were not bets. These were 'no money' picks on ESPN's free-to-play Pick'em game. It was part self psychology, partly how accurately the market was moving towards the winning pick, and part analysis of what results I might get get through chasing steam. It wasn't a scientific study for multiple reasons, (and I was running a more interesting study/'game' elsewhere).

  26. #26
    the Great Gatsby
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gaze73 View Post
    I know that, but OP wants winners based on line movements.

    Op made a thread asking if there is a way to make profitable predictions based on odds movements
    if you want to speak about the very basics of betting for newbies made another thread

  27. #27
    Gaze73
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    Quote Originally Posted by the Great Gatsby View Post
    Op made a thread asking if there is a way to make profitable predictions based on odds movements
    if you want to speak about the very basics of betting for newbies made another thread
    No, you didn't. You asked "is there a way to predict the outcome from the odds movement?" which implies you're looking for bets that are very likely to win. When we talked about odds you said it's irrelevant. I have almost 3k posts here, you really think you know more than me? If you're so smart, go chase steamers and make millions.

  28. #28
    the Great Gatsby
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gaze73 View Post
    No, you didn't. You asked "is there a way to predict the outcome from the odds movement?" which implies you're looking for bets that are very likely to win. When we talked about odds you said it's irrelevant. I have almost 3k posts here, you really think you know more than me? If you're so smart, go chase steamers and make millions.

    stop trolling

  29. #29
    KVB
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    I promise to get to this thread with some pretty interesting, and advanced concepts.

    Again, some of this is best taught by example with a combination of simple algos, and the the creation of algos around those based on experience that has been quantified.

    But we really do need to start from the beginning to understand that there is design to it in the markets and there is a method to the madness.

    I want to share this short term chart, from a thread that asked this about the NBA...

    Any trend on home team going from fav to dog?

    In that thread I posted this...

    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    How far you want to stretch it Minny?

    For example, on April 9th Charlotte opened a -8.5 favorite at home but became a +3.5 dog by game time.

    Like Arch said, a lot of this anymore is personnel announcements.

    I keep saying that capping the NBA probabilities has come down to capping the probabilities that a player is going to play that night.

    And so many of these are game time announcements anymore. It's ridiculous.

    But, here's some fodder for you...

    Since the 2016-17 season until now I have betting on the home team after it's opened as a favorite and then closed as a dog at exactly 50-50 over the last 212 plays.

    Thats 105-105-2.

    Now, if you had bet the same unit on the home team at the close for each of those games here's the ride you went on...

    There is no ancillary information in that chart. It is pure data based on a simple, easy to track, metric.

    The next thing I'd like to get into will deal with the way different types of money affect the market and how it can be lead by by the differences between them. Understand it's an auction market and you have to have a stock market frame of mind, right down to manipulation of prices.

    We've had some good examples of the give and take markets with first week and weekend of playoffs action and I regret not already being involved in this thread. If you did read my market analysis you get an idea of what I'm talking about. These examples cover all three possibilities for a line to have from the open and then at the close. Sure, the line can fly around in between, and go back and forth, but at the open, and at the close, three things can happen.

    It can close toward one side, ml, or Total, the other side of the side ml and Total, or exactly as the opening line.

    Just like a stock, and the markets, it can move up, down, or sideways. On top of that, these things can happen over all sorts of time frames, short, long, day, week + weekend, season, multi season, etc.

    I know it doesn't seem like I'm saying a whole lot of concrete things right now, I feel that. The reason is that I intend to expand on these things and even intertwine them, but not by just giving you a take on what's already happened. My intention is to show by example, real time.

    I may have to summarize last week, or refer to it often, but the goal is to stay in the present and not pretend like I knew exactly what was going to happen last week after we've seen the results. Again, those who read my market analysis understand.

    Maybe we can do something a little dangerous and special in this thread.

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  30. #30
    Waterstpub87
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    Good chart KVB. Interesting Idea

  31. #31
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by Waterstpub87 View Post
    Good chart KVB. Interesting Idea
    Never been to RX, lol.

    That chart above was specifically for that thread, thrown together pretty quick.

    Otherwise, not sure what you mean. It's a chart of units, the title is long.

    Otherwise gimme some specifics, I would like to improve them if need be.

    Not sure how phone users see these charts either. I'm definitely up for constructive criticism here.

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  32. #32
    KVB
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    lol, I see the edit now.

    If there is something off, or something you can think of that I should change please let me know.

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  33. #33
    Waterstpub87
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    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    lol, I see the edit now.

    If there is something off, or something you can think of that I should change please let me know.
    I was joking

    I get on my guys at work when they make charts like that, because they don't always remember to label the X axis with dates. So it looks like that, and looks meaningful, but you can't interpret it without the dates.
    After reading it, I was like "Shit, thats probably the number of bets made, better edit it quick before I look like a clown"
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  34. #34
    Roger T. Bannon
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    I think what the poster had in mind is if you can look at how a line has moved and then determine if it is a good pick after the fact based on the move. The answer is No.
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  35. #35
    Gaze73
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger T. Bannon View Post
    I think what the poster had in mind is if you can look at how a line has moved and then determine if it is a good pick after the fact based on the move. The answer is No.
    The answer is yes, but it depends on many factors. The sport, league, fav, dog, opening odds, mid-day odds, closing odds, the total amount of action on the game, public percentages and last but not least, the likely reasons for the line movement. Obviously, when some key players are declared to be absent and the line moves by 30% you have no edge by betting against the team with absent players at the closing line. Basically, the trick is to find which line movements are caused by smart money.

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