is there a way to predict the outcome from the odds movement?

[Roger T. Bannon]

The answer is yes, but it depends on many factors. The sport, league, fav, dog, opening odds, mid-day odds, closing odds, the total amount of action on the game, public percentages and last but not least, the likely reasons for the line movement. Obviously, when some key players are declared to be absent and the line moves by 30% you have no edge by betting against the team with absent players at the closing line. Basically, the trick is to find which line movements are caused by smart money.

Once the lines have moved, the value is gone. That is why it depends on many factors, none of which you can measure because they are worthless after the line has moved. Closing odds are definitely not a factor because it is too late.

[the Great Gatsby]

Closing odds are definitely not a factor because it is too late.

there is always the possibility to find value in play


so what can the closing odds can tell us?

[Gaze73]

Once the lines have moved, the value is gone. That is why it depends on many factors, none of which you can measure because they are worthless after the line has moved. Closing odds are definitely not a factor because it is too late.

How are closing odds not a factor? They're the main factor that decides which side you play. You don't always have to play the side with huge support. When the odds move too much you can fade the public. Also you seem to think that every line movement in every sport and every league is super efficient, meaning that there is never any value at closing odds after a significant line movement, which is false. Dead rubber games are a good example, the market often bets against the team that has nothing to play for, the line moves by 50%, the favorite becomes the dog and wins super easily anyway. When all the squares are on one side, bet the other way.

[Roger T. Bannon]

Give me an example of a bet you made after the line move based on the closing odds for that game?

[QuantumLeap]

How are closing odds not a factor? They're the main factor that decides which side you play. You don't always have to play the side with huge support. When the odds move too much you can fade the public. Also you seem to think that every line movement in every sport and every league is super efficient, meaning that there is never any value at closing odds after a significant line movement, which is false. Dead rubber games are a good example, the market often bets against the team that has nothing to play for, the line moves by 50%, the favorite becomes the dog and wins super easily anyway. When all the squares are on one side, bet the other way.

I agree. For example, when certain NBA players are out the line may move 3 to 5 points. Eventually we see that the team with the missing player vastly under-performs by 10 or more points meaning that the player was worth more than 10 points to his team and a 3 to 5 point line move was not enough.

The problem with this is that some players have big line moves against their team when they are out yet the team is able to make up for the loss of that player with other players.