Bowl Betting system

**BigdaddyQH** · 12-20-19, 12:48 PM

Basically, favorites tend to cover on New Years Day games and later games, while Dogs cover before New Years. That will change a lot this season because the Bowls are so screwed up date wise. There are 5 meaningless Bowl games after 1/1/20. There are two very meaningful Bowl Games on 12/28/19. Peach and Fiesta Bowls. If you are going to wager on Bowl games, I recommend this:

1. Stick to the teams you know. No matter what may happen personnel wise, you know those teams and should be able to adjust.

2. Try to find the teams that want to win these games the most. It could be a game with a team who has an "interim" head coach looking for a permanent job. It could be a retiring head coach wanting to go out on a winning note. Things like that.

3. Look for bad lines. There are always a few.

4. DO NOT wager just because the game is on T.V. That is degenerate wagering. There is a ton of that in here. Degens are losers. Some actually like to lose so they can try and illicit some sympathy. Stupid is as stupid does. and there is a lot of that in here.

**veriableodds** · 12-20-19, 01:14 PM

this is easy just dont do it. Kids are on vacation, time off(to long), cannot trust rankings at this point.

Plenty of action elsewhere why push action on un-reliability

**gojetsgomoxies** · 12-20-19, 02:36 PM

i wasn't aware of that early vs. later bowl system until last year....... has it worked recently?....... it makes some sense as early vs. late games have different feel. although there are now meaningless late bowls too.

5 things i've seen,

1) rushing teams are good...... heavy run teams, good run teams and good run D's....... some combo of that. navy is 5-0 ATS last 5 bowl games. army/AF pretty good too

2) heavy passing teams is bad....... not much effective practice time to get timing down... WSU and WV, TT (?? on TT, doing this one from memory) are terrible bowl teams. other heavy pass teams are mixed.

3) lots of nfl talent, poor season... miami-florida. been terrible bowl team.

4) upstart and/or system teams...... get figured out with coaches having weeks to analyze........ upstarts = minnesota, baylor, ASU?, one more i've forgotten.

5) i've read bad ATS teams are good in bowls. and maybe vice-versa. basically, brand new season to some extent ....... the opposite of what i stated in #3....... i will check

**SBR Drew** · 12-20-19, 02:57 PM

Great insight here guys...thanks..going to look closer at the games,not force a bet, and enjoy!!

**Optional** · 12-20-19, 06:02 PM

Originally posted by BigdaddyQH

4. DO NOT wager just because the game is on T.V.

It's holiday time, and bowl season, will be tough for many people to stick to that rule.

**StackinGreen** · 12-21-19, 01:50 AM

Who is BigDaddy on?

**mjsuax13** · 12-21-19, 02:53 AM

Originally posted by StackinGreen

Who is BigDaddy on?

He never posts his plays. Mostly losers!

**StackinGreen** · 12-21-19, 11:26 AM

Originally posted by mjsuax13

he never posts his plays. Mostly losers!

lolz

**BigdaddyQH** · 12-21-19, 11:55 AM

Originally posted by Optional

It's holiday time, and bowl season, will be tough for many people to stick to that rule.

I agree, and that is why there are so many losers in here. It is really sad in a way. People with nothing else to do except lose their money.

**StackinGreen** · 12-21-19, 01:33 PM

BigDaddy, who are you on? Let's have a contest for fun, we have no beef, bowl picks. You game? Make a thread and we'll square off.

**KVB** · 12-21-19, 09:51 PM

Originally posted by gojetsgomoxies

i wasn't aware of that early vs. later bowl system until last year....... has it worked recently?...

No, BigDaddy was talking out of his ass, as usual.

I appreciate the effort Drew made to put this in the Think Tank but I'm not surprised if we get some trolling and non think tank posts for sure.

First of all, BigDaddyQH needs to take his constant trolling out of the Think Tank. This is not the place to just talk out of your ass.

Instead of moving the thread, because I don't care about where threads are outside of the Think Tank, I'll try to at least put some kind of Think Tank spin on it.

The first step is to set things straight, and undo what BigDaddy fukked up.

Here's the story Moxies...

Originally posted by BigdaddyQH

Basically, favorites tend to cover on New Years Day games and later games...

Over the last 76 New Year's Day games, favorites are 37-39, 48.68% for -3.6 units.

Here's how it looks on just New Year's Day over the years. All bets risk the same 1 unit and some years Jan 1st fell on a Sunday. These games won't compete with NFL and won't schedule on Sunday so those years the "New Year's Day" game is on Jan. 2nd...

Now when it comes to games after New Year's Day it gets even worse for BigDaddy as favorites are 33-40-1, 43.43% (no tie in %) for -8.3 units. Here are those 74 plays...

When you add the New Year's Day and the later games you find that of the 150 games studied favorites are 70-79-1, 46.98% (no tie in %) for -12 units.

It's even worse if you pull out those "meaningless" bowls of smaller schools that have been in the first week of January.

So as far as Think Tank contributions go...Thanks BigDaddy.

Sheesh.

We've seen above that the dogs tend to actually bark late after all, especially recently.

Now, what of those Underdogs before New Year's Day?

**KVB** · 12-21-19, 09:52 PM

Originally posted by BigdaddyQH

...while Dogs cover before New Years...

In the last 341 Bowl games leading up to New Year's Day UNDERDOGS are 175-166, 51.32% for -2.6 units.

Here is the year by year UNITS when betting UNDERDOGS before New Year's Day. Again, all bets are to risk the same 1 unit...

To use the charts together for a given season remember that the games leading up to New Year's are the calender year before the ones On and After New Year's Day. None of the information includes the 2019-2020 season.

By the way, if a bettor had bet the same 1 unit on the favorites, and gone 166-175, that bettor would be down -18.5 units.

So it looks like Dogs have been where it's at, at least as far as not losing as fast whether before or after New Year's Day.

Or in BigDaddy's case, the blind squirrel found a nut...

Originally posted by BigdaddyQH

...while Dogs cover before New Years...

**gojetsgomoxies** · 12-22-19, 08:52 AM

i did find something awhile back with the bowl dating, if memory serves correct ............. i'm thinking you breakup december into 2 pieces.

BTW, i very much appreciate all that work

**gojetsgomoxies** · 12-22-19, 08:52 AM

haha........... i love the Big Daddy (Crabtree) photo....

**chilidog** · 12-22-19, 09:14 AM

So, in other words, BigDaddy is a huge loser. Got it. Noted.

**gojetsgomoxies** · 12-23-19, 04:49 PM

i think the early vs. late did work in the past. although last year the first day (the saturday and it always has 5-6 games) went the opposite way strongly

i saw a system on another forum that said take the better ranked massey ratings defense..... so far it is 4-4 ATS, although 2 of the losses were very close (and one loss had a big spread, which i think you might want to disregard. of course, if you massage it too much, it's data mining.)

**deeppckts** · 12-24-19, 01:48 PM

Anything thread with the word 'system' should be banned from being in a "think tank" subforum.

**gojetsgomoxies** · 12-24-19, 02:24 PM

i was tracking rushing stats from regular season as the basis for bowl game picks....... that is my favourite........ i was doing net ypc (offense minus defense)...

anyway, running 50%ish so far.

**dante1** · 12-24-19, 04:35 PM

Originally posted by BigdaddyQH

Basically, favorites tend to cover on New Years Day games and later games, while Dogs cover before New Years. That will change a lot this season because the Bowls are so screwed up date wise. There are 5 meaningless Bowl games after 1/1/20. There are two very meaningful Bowl Games on 12/28/19. Peach and Fiesta Bowls. If you are going to wager on Bowl games, I recommend this:

1. Stick to the teams you know. No matter what may happen personnel wise, you know those teams and should be able to adjust.

2. Try to find the teams that want to win these games the most. It could be a game with a team who has an "interim" head coach looking for a permanent job. It could be a retiring head coach wanting to go out on a winning note. Things like that.

3. Look for bad lines. There are always a few.

4. DO NOT wager just because the game is on T.V. That is degenerate wagering. There is a ton of that in here. Degens are losers. Some actually like to lose so they can try and illicit some sympathy. Stupid is as stupid does. and there is a lot of that in here.

OMG is this BS. I don't like being critical during the holiday season but are you for real. this sounds like a 7th grade report

Number 3 is subjective do you know what that means? Number 4 is useless, 99.9% of players are losers. Number 2, really, you can play next day QB and rationalize every game--when they are over.

Number 1, who really knows these teams. Oh you might know Penn State if you live in Pa. Or maybe a few others however learning these teams inside out is nearly impossible unless you are a true "degen" as you call them.

It would have been better for you to admit I don't have a fckin clue.

Many years I tell this story because it is a true story. When I booked for over two decades we had very few winners. that is a lie we had zero winners. however we had a couple of kids who did fairly well. they sometimes hit us for a few thousand and did especially well during bowl season.

So one day I asked them and they replied we generally like to play the favorites in early games and the dogs in later games, the big games. So I still did not test this theory and you would think I would have by now but I just don't believe in 99% of systems. they win, until they don't. even right now I have no clue what has happened so far. and another question is when, when do you make the turnaround from fav to dog.

this is about the 3rd time I told this story. Make what you will of it and maybe test it and let me know. Maybe this year it will pick at about 55% and next year at about 35%. Who knows??

**dante1** · 12-24-19, 04:40 PM

Originally posted by KVB

In the last 341 Bowl games leading up to New Year's Day UNDERDOGS are 175-166, 51.32% for -2.6 units.

Here is the year by year UNITS when betting UNDERDOGS before New Year's Day. Again, all bets are to risk the same 1 unit...

To use the charts together for a given season remember that the games leading up to New Year's are the calender year before the ones On and After New Year's Day. None of the information includes the 2019-2020 season.

By the way, if a bettor had bet the same 1 unit on the favorites, and gone 166-175, that bettor would be down -18.5 units.

So it looks like Dogs have been where it's at, at least as far as not losing as fast whether before or after New Year's Day.

Or in BigDaddy's case, the blind squirrel found a nut...

I personally love the dogs in both NFL and college. sometimes I get killed, but I probably play dogs at about 3 to 1. If I can find a good excuse to take the dog I will. lol

How sickening is it when you lay 7.5 and the game is nearly over, you have the favorite and it is a tie game. you have almost zero chance. when I booked the huge majority of players were favorite bettors and we never lost--in the long run. Bad days yes, bad weeks yes, bad seasons never.

**Optional** · 12-24-19, 07:01 PM

Originally posted by deeppckts

Anything thread with the word 'system' should be banned from being in a "think tank" subforum.

That did used to be the Think Tank rule once upon a time.

Would love to see the Think Tank get back to those days a bit more. A web search that resulted in a think tank thread by Ganchrow was what drew me to the site to start with.

**leetreaper** · 12-24-19, 07:25 PM

BigDadaddy is an embarrassment and everybody knows it.

**peacebyinches** · 12-25-19, 07:13 AM

great points here, thank you for the ACTUAL ANALYSIS kvb. But, I do have a system that I’d wager my life savings on: any thread with “system” in the title will include a terrible reply from bigdaddy. Merry Christmas think tankers!

**RangeFinder** · 12-25-19, 06:02 PM

Nice work K!!

**Bsims** · 12-26-19, 07:40 AM

Originally posted by deeppckts

Anything thread with the word 'system' should be banned from being in a "think tank" subforum.

The definition of the word "system " is fairly complex. I'm not sure everyone is using the same definition. Hence, banning it would mean different things to different people.

**milwaukee mike** · 12-27-19, 09:47 AM

Originally posted by Bsims

The definition of the word "system " is fairly complex. I'm not sure everyone is using the same definition. Hence, banning it would mean different things to different people.

totally agree

if my system was to bet on the nets to score first every game when brook lopez was winning tips at a nutso rate... that was a "system" and to ban it from the think tank would've been ridiculous... nba first to score worked so well for me and others that books stopped pricing it based on the pregame line and tweaked it (often in the wrong direction), some like betonline just gave up and stopped offering it

**deeppckts** · 12-27-19, 03:02 PM

The team located closer to the equator has won 17-4 of the last 21 bowl games ATS on Friday.

GO!

**deeppckts** · 12-27-19, 03:04 PM

There's only one system. Make bets that are +EV. Sporting events are by and large independent events. Therefore anything involving trends should be thrown out the window. And that's 99% of people's "systems".

Here is the other way to identify a "system": what they are going to bet doesn't depend on the spread or total or, in other words, the price of the bet.

When you are making +EV bets, you are potentially willing to be on either side of a bet depending on the price. Does that sound like most 'systems' on here?

**milwaukee mike** · 12-27-19, 06:11 PM

Originally posted by deeppckts

There's only one system. Make bets that are +EV. Sporting events are by and large independent events. Therefore anything involving trends should be thrown out the window. And that's 99% of people's "systems".

Here is the other way to identify a "system": what they are going to bet doesn't depend on the spread or total or, in other words, the price of the bet.

When you are making +EV bets, you are potentially willing to be on either side of a bet depending on the price. Does that sound like most 'systems' on here?

if it's nothing more than data mining, then yes

but if it's something like one nfl team (that always defers) vs another nfl team (that always takes the ball) and you take the receiving team for the 1q then yes history matters... but you're right you still wouldn't autobet them, everything should always be price dependent

**deeppckts** · 12-27-19, 06:39 PM

Originally posted by milwaukee mike

if it's nothing more than data mining, then yes

but if it's something like one nfl team (that always defers) vs another nfl team (that always takes the ball) and you take the receiving team for the 1q then yes history matters... but you're right you still wouldn't autobet them, everything should always be price dependent

Yes sir, milwaukee mike seems to ravage sports as much as avril.