1. #106
    Bsims
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    Sorry if I hit a nerve bud.

  2. #107
    danshan11
    I am good at coin flips, I really am!
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    Quote Originally Posted by Combato View Post
    I ran a Z score on your results. Not an exact way to determine statistical significance but a decent surrogate

    Your data has a Z score of 2.79 which translates into a P value that would be considered ss. Your 55% edge is probably valid based on the Z score.
    to even consider Z scores to be accurate you really need tons and tons of records.

  3. #108
    RUNandGun
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    Quote Originally Posted by Combato View Post
    I ran a Z score on your results. Not an exact way to determine statistical significance but a decent surrogate

    Your data has a Z score of 2.79 which translates into a P value that would be considered ss. Your 55% edge is probably valid based on the Z score.
    Thanks I cooled off a tad now at 54% in NCAAB. 278-233-5 But College football is heating up. Only tracking 139 plays though. I am at 78-58-3 or 56%

  4. #109
    bettingman6
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bsims View Post
    If you look at the profit percentages of Nevada's sports book by sport, baseball is the smallest, ergo baseball is easier to beat.

    https://gaming.unlv.edu/reports/NV_sportsbetting.pdf

    I think that's mostly because few people bet on baseball, so the casinos don't care as much about avoiding loose lines.
    Last edited by bettingman6; 12-21-18 at 02:38 AM.

  5. #110
    Sawyer
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    I have to agree about baseball. NHL and MLB are easier to beat then NBA and NFL.

  6. #111
    danshan11
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    when you say harder, what defines harder to you? for me I think harder has to do with how much the line moves average, open to close.
    the more movement there is it seems would create more opportunity to exploit a "bad" number and if this happens regularly that would probably be the "easiest". I have never checked which sport this is true in but if you could look at the NFL movement is very subtle from open to close so this would make it very tough, IMHO!

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