Win % sample size

[aljack]

I track by '+EV' via ROI/BET @ 2.5% / bet.

So far in 2018 I am: 3,102-3,781-355, +319.07u,

319.07u = 319.07 x 2.5% =
797.68% Profit

797.68% / (3102+3781+355) = 0.11% ROI per BET (@ 2.5% each bet)

Meaning...

For every bet I make, win or lose. I am gaining 0.11% ROI.

That's $1.10 / bet, win or lose. (@ $25/bet)

That's how I track. Winning % is only useful if you're betting constantly at -110, etc.

Just my opinion.

[danshan11]

I track by '+EV' via ROI/BET @ 2.5% / bet.

So far in 2018 I am: 3,102-3,781-355, +319.07u,

319.07u = 319.07 x 2.5% =
797.68% Profit

797.68% / (3102+3781+355) = 0.11% ROI per BET (@ 2.5% each bet)

Meaning...

For every bet I make, win or lose. I am gaining 0.11% ROI.

That's $1.10 / bet, win or lose. (@ $25/bet)

That's how I track. Winning % is only useful if you're betting constantly at -110, etc.

Just my opinion.

well that aint shit, tsty does these numbers everyday before lunch and he is not betting 25 bucks, he bets 25-50k per bet and tips a couple grand if the counter guy is cute!

[tsty]

Lol why are you so mad?

Also that math is wrong lol

[danshan11]

I am not mad, I just think its funny. can you only say funny things when you are mad?

[tsty]

I am not mad, I just think its funny. can you only say funny things when you are mad?

If you ever bet for real one day and sit in front of your computer watching markets for more than 12 hours on end you will realise something

Only a few markets move one way and close

every other market in the world fluctuates like a mother rooster_eater

there is easy money out there but you just need to set your ego to the side and look

trying to beat NBA/NFL/Soccer on your own is a fools game

[tsty]

fwiw baseball is a very easy market

if you can't beat baseball then you shouldn't move on to other stuff like the NBA when it's much harder

[danshan11]

If you ever bet for real one day and sit in front of your computer watching markets for more than 12 hours on end you will realise something

Only a few markets move one way and close

every other market in the world fluctuates like a mother rooster_eater

there is easy money out there but you just need to set your ego to the side and look

trying to beat NBA/NFL/Soccer on your own is a fools game

it is 2018 you dont need to stare at your screen for 12 hours there are programs for that and they track lines anyway you want
who cares if markets only move one way and close, i dont see what that even means
easy money out there, that is a joke too right?
on your own, what do you mean by that ? NBA is beatable you can obviously see it is by daily line movements, NFL not so much
and your comment on baseball if you are talking MLB you are really proving you absolutely know nothing about sports betting.

[danshan11]

the only way we currently have to know if we have an edge is beating the line, all the probability of luck formulas are garbage. the best thing and it can be wrong is beating the market consistently and enough times to overcome variance.

I dont think anyone that knows anything legitimately about sports betting would argue
that if you beat the line by an average of 2% assuming a 1% margin over 1000 games you would very likely be a winner, period!

Yes I know there is a guy somewhere who can using a magic wand and a newspaper with some cinnamon oil can pick winners better than the entire betting consensus on a consistent regular basis for the long term without any care or concern with the line, more power to him, but reality I will never have cinnamon oil and or a magic wand, so for me and the millions of others that want to win long term, the best option is beating the line!

its real simple you have to accurately predict what the closing line will be BEFORE IT opens and if you can do that consistently long term you will be a winner!

[tsty]

Mlb is really easy in comparison to the nba

You are retarded if you think otherwise

[tsty]

Lol who goes around trying to predict the closing line?

Beating the closing line is a by product not the goal lol

[danshan11]

Lol who goes around trying to predict the closing line?

Beating the closing line is a by product not the goal lol

if you had a reliable system to show you what the closing line will be on games, you think there is a more valuable tool?

[danshan11]

Mlb is really easy in comparison to the nba

You are retarded if you think otherwise

you dont need to explain this, its obvious you are clueless that is why you one line and dont commit to shit, you dont have a clue

[tsty]

if you had a reliable system to show you what the closing line will be on games, you think there is a more valuable tool?

Do you even know what a system is?

[tsty]

you dont need to explain this, its obvious you are clueless that is why you one line and dont commit to shit, you dont have a clue

Lol plenty of people rape the mlb on their own it is ridiculously easiar than nba

I dont know anyone beating the nba on their own

Pinny couldnt even price - 2.5 properly last year

[Debacleov]

If you are shoving it into one particular league I see no reason to try to pull your rooster out and penetrate a different one

stick to the one that forces you to use lube

[danshan11]

Do you even know what a system is?

when I say system I used bad terminology what i meant was a predictive model, good catch!

[danshan11]

Lol plenty of people rape the mlb on their own it is ridiculously easiar than nba

I dont know anyone beating the nba on their own

Pinny couldnt even price - 2.5 properly last year

on their own, I have no idea what that means
pinny couldnt price what?
brother nobody is "raping" MLB, MLB is very tough to beat, most consider it one of the toughest next to the NFL, NHL is probably thee easiest and then NBA
my tough rankings are
NFL
MLB
NBA
NHL
WNBA

[danshan11]

listen ding dong, we all do the exact same thing
we look at the current line and determine if that is the correct line, if it is the correct line we pass if not we bet accordingly
now the exception is some people (not me) dont think the closing line is the correct line.

if there were 2 roulette tables and one paid 39 to 1 and the other paid 35 to 1, I would bet at the 39 to 1 table and people that dont think the line is efficient would bet at either one because they think they know they will win because they think they know who the winner is before the ball is dropped. I dont think that I think the result is random and will eventually come out to 37 or 38 to 1 as it should be

[danshan11]

we create models to determine what is a fair line and once we have a fair line we compare that to the current line if their is space we bet it if not we don't!

[Debacleov]

soccer has gotta be the worst

[tsty]

hahahhaha WNBA

ROFL

I HEARD IT HERE FIRST

AHAHHAHAHHAHAH

[danshan11]

soccer has gotta be the worst

yeah I was talking US markets, I really dont know much about soccer but I know it is very sharp with the intl following

[danshan11]

hahahhaha WNBA

ROFL

I HEARD IT HERE FIRST

AHAHHAHAHHAHAH

good answer ding dong! keep talking you are proving your skill more and more by the minute

[qsgsg]

good answer ding dong! keep talking you are proving your skill more and more by the minute

That guy is full of BS. MLB is one of the hardest to predict accurately. I have not even seen any decent MLB tipster around.

[danshan11]

of course it is, he is just a talker, he does not have any skills related to sports betting!

[Bsims]

now the exception is some people (not me) dont think the closing line is the correct line.

You keep beating the drum that the closing line is the correct line. That leads me to a few questions. What closing line? It seems to me different books have different closing lines. Then, what metric(s) do you use to say the closing line is the correct line? Finally, given two choices for 2019, which would you choose?

Beat the "closing " line, but lose money, or
Not beat the "closing" line, but make money.

[Waterstpub87]

You keep beating the drum that the closing line is the correct line. That leads me to a few questions. What closing line? It seems to me different books have different closing lines. Then, what metric(s) do you use to say the closing line is the correct line? Finally, given two choices for 2019, which would you choose?

Beat the "closing " line, but lose money, or
Not beat the "closing" line, but make money.

Pinnacle is always the close of choice. I would take 5 dimes as well on American sports. From what I have seen, this tend to be the consensus. Honorable mention to bookmaker as well.

[Waterstpub87]

NBA is much harder than MLB. I feel like the lines are much more accurate than NFL, which is a much more random outcome. Heard that Men's tennis is even harder, but I have hardly ever bet that.

[Bsims]

Pinnacle is always the close of choice. I would take 5 dimes as well on American sports. From what I have seen, this tend to be the consensus. Honorable mention to bookmaker as well.

I agree, most people would use Pinnacle. But if you look at the final lines for these 3 for the NBA games yesterday, they are all different. I'm not aware of any studies done that demonstrates one is consistently better than the others. I also don't know what metric(s) you would use in doing such a study.

[danshan11]

You keep beating the drum that the closing line is the correct line. That leads me to a few questions. What closing line? It seems to me different books have different closing lines. Then, what metric(s) do you use to say the closing line is the correct line? Finally, given two choices for 2019, which would you choose?
Beat the "closing " line, but lose money, or
Not beat the "closing" line, but make money.

i use pinnacle for the major sports ie(mlb nhl, nba )
I use the implied probability of the closing lines and compare it over a huge 1000000s sample size to see how efficient the line is.

I would choose beat the line and lose money as long as the losses were not big enough to take me out of the game completely.

I think people can have a good year or 2 and never beat the line, its kind of like the sim of 20 rolls of 1000 and 4 out of 10 are winners.

Bsims think of this simple statement and question
we know books do not have very often even money on both sides of a game 95% of the time they are praying for a winner just like us.
we also know the books make money every single year without fail
since we know this and we know they are willing to take bets on both sides and not choose a side how does it work
it works like this
they beat the line using juice and they have 1000s of bets to overcome variance.

just owning a roulette wheel and customers does not make you a winner. you got to have bankroll control, and enough rolls to overcome variance or you could be a loser with a roulette wheel and paying customers.

so how do we make money betting? I think the smartest thing to do is do what the people we know are winners do
beat the line (AKA juice)
have enough games to overcome variance
that is a winning formula and it is the same formula all those shiny buildings in vegas biloxi and everywhere else in the world do! What do you want to do?

[danshan11]

NBA is much harder than MLB. I feel like the lines are much more accurate than NFL, which is a much more random outcome. Heard that Men's tennis is even harder, but I have hardly ever bet that.

hard the term which is harder
the way i try and see how "hard" a league is I look at two things
the margin (juice) is it high
then I look at how much the lines move
this tells you how hard a sport is to beat, there is no other tell tale signs, anything else is guessing or personal sentiment. The sharper the line is in that sport and the bigger the margin, the less potential for profit

NOw Bsims might be better or have a better model for the NBA so he thinks it is easier or Tsty may have an MLB model that is killer so he thinks it is easiest but in reality easiest is really defined as
widest gap in line movements from start to finish and the actual margin on the sport in general.

[tsty]

NBA is much harder than MLB. I feel like the lines are much more accurate than NFL, which is a much more random outcome. Heard that Men's tennis is even harder, but I have hardly ever bet that.

lol these guys are clueless

the difficulty of a market generally comes down to how much pinnacle lets you max bet

MLB is not even in the same ball park there was a -2.5 system running this year where you could bet blindly on any -2.5 and make money blind that shit doesn't happen anywhere else MLB is a joke but hey since danshan can't beat it then it's "really hard"

and WNBA lol its even easiar than esports

[Bsims]

If you look at the profit percentages of Nevada's sports book by sport, baseball is the smallest, ergo baseball is easier to beat.

https://gaming.unlv.edu/reports/NV_sportsbetting.pdf

[danshan11]

sportsbook profit does not say how hard it is to beat. that is more a reflection of the volume bet on a sport and the narrow margin in baseball, baseball has historically the smallest margin

[danshan11]

lol these guys are clueless

the difficulty of a market generally comes down to how much pinnacle lets you max bet

MLB is not even in the same ball park there was a -2.5 system running this year where you could bet blindly on any -2.5 and make money blind that shit doesn't happen anywhere else MLB is a joke but hey since danshan can't beat it then it's "really hard"

and WNBA lol its even easiar than esports

WNBA I ranked as the easiest, my list goes from hardest to easiest.

A system for baseball LOL, that is really funny!