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I had success with martingale in baseball. I was also running a thread in a forum, if you search internet you can find it.
It's possible to have success with martingale UNLESS you limit your chase. Regular martingale never works. If you limit your chase, you also limit your risk and exposure. If you chase up to 2 or 3 games, and if you have an *edge*, you can make profit with martingale over long haul.
7k posts later and still stupid..
Sawyer gets itOriginally Posted by Sawyer
possible or impossible? This statement seems contradictory.
Think he meant impossible
Here he is again....with nothing to offer. Thanks tsty, your the best!
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short term nothing looks as good as martingale but eventually it will bite you!
If there was something worth replying to i would lol
In all that gibberish the only thing sawyer said was that martingale only works if you keep chasing and it works because he has a thread
Who would respond to that stupidity?
What exactly is his baseline for working? What is his goal and how does martingale help him achieve it? Because if wanting to make the most money is his goal then he is wrong and it doeant work lol
Can you even explain to me why martingale works for you? Why is chasing the optimal betting strategy?
All your posts lack cleae substance yet you reply to me every chance you get complaining about the same thing lol
everyone knows martingale does not work! why are we even discussing it LOL
I never said chasing was the optimal betting strategy. For some it might be depending on ones individual form and betting strategy/system/handicap whatever the method may be. (I will use the term 'progressive systems' as Martingale insinuates a continual chase until you go bust, which is not what I am condoning or ever have.) As Sawyer stated, progressive systems need a cut-off or a control built in. Don't just blindly Chase the San Antonio Spurs on the ML because that's what you decided to do when you woke up in the morning. Instead handicap games in series to give an increased chance to win. Everyone has a better chance to win 1 out of 2 or 3 than 1 out of 1. These plays need to be strategic, and put the odds in your favor. I can't write a dissertation on betting strategies and handicapping, the information and options are so vast it would literally take a lifetime to complete. That's where the handicapper comes in, it's up to them to find a framework that suits there needs and goals.
As an example maybe you're comfort level is 3 games, you should always know what you are comfortable losing and build out from there.
game A - win x
game B - win x plus loss on A
game C - win 1/2x plus losses or maybe go for break even. Adjust to for what is comfortable.
Use dogs in the system to decrease your risk output. There are several ways to work a progressive strategy.....CONTROL and LOSS LIMIT are key factors. Don't chase indefinitely...
Labouchere is another strategy with many forms that can be used to aid in recovery.
Handicapping the finances (risk/reward) is the most important part (we control what we contribute) we don't control who wins and loses.
martingale works but only if your edge is long term profitable.
I read at a forum about a strategy to chase a team to go under the total in their next four games when they score 79 points in a game or less.
3373 qualifying games to find here.
http://sportsdatabase.com/nba/query?output=default&sdql=p%3Apoints%3C%3D79&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++
4 game chase to go under in one of them.
Game A winners 1633
Game B winners: 797
Game C winners: 398
Game D winners: 186
196 series losses
so no look at the pushes:
Game 1 of chase pushes:
27 winners in Game A(2)
19 wins in B(2)
11 wins in C(2)
0 wins in D(2)
2 series losses
and so on...
if we count a series loss as 1+2+4+8=15 units
198x15 Units
2970 Units lost
3071 Units won
so approx. you would have won 100 units with this chase system.
It works at times, but only with limits and boundaries.
To me mathematically, it is the exact opposite. If you are a +EV Player the Martnigale does nothing for you and in general is a bad idea. By running the martingale you are under and over betting your edge, and even worse at some point due to variance you will destroy your bankroll due to a terrible run by way over betting your edge. Granted you have a better chance than -EV player, but that doesn't resolve the fact you will be at points way over betting your edge and a variance streak will eventually kill you.
Players that are -EV can defy the odds with the martingale for years. I know a guy going on 10 years (4 to 6 visits a year) betting Martingales in Vegas at Pai Gow and Baccarat. He's up 6 figures and lord knows how much on comps.
I agree the math is the math, and anybody doing the martingale is playing with fire.
The logic I see most people (that think they are successful) employing is:
1.) "Correlated" chases that take advantage of lines-makers reacting to streaks. Usually seen in bases on a high profile team like the Yankees. If you start betting one outcome, and continue betting that outcome entire streak eventually the bookmakers will likely overreact and give you a large advantage. i.e. if the Yankees start on an over streak and you bet under every time, the longer your losing streak the more the book makers compensate for all the "over" streak players. Still seems crazy because streaks of 8 to 10 overs by a team happen all the time.
Doing this is most likely just kicking the can and will eventually lose but better than random selections in a martingale.
The only real semi-logical reason I can think of that could cause a decent player to have success from running a limited martingale is:
2.) A decent handicapper, that averages a 53% win percentage, by use of something like a 3 game chase, can unintentionally change his behaviors to make his betting fall into line with some sort of Kelly and therefore increase their overall return.. If someone picks 53% long term, then some plays have more edge than others. For simplicity sake let's say some probably hit 51% some 53% and others 55%. For people that don't have models, and have no way of predicting "edge". The chase forces them to prioritize the "best play" on the one worth 4 units (in a 1-2-4 progression). There is still over/under betting of edges, but instead of playing a 51% the same as a 55% in flat betting, they align there better plays with the larger bets.
Still most people that run the martingale are stupid and will eventually find disaster, but I'll tell that to my idiot friend for the 50th time, when I see him in Vegas next time when I go over to his comped suite.
I Martingale on blackjack, and that's it. If I have a hundred bucks and I want a soda and a bag of chips at the 7/11. I get the soda for free for gambling, and then I win 5 bucks playing video black jack. That the only time I Martingale.
Sports and horses, it's not Martingale, it's called chasing.
Commandment to sports betting:THOU SHALT NOT CHASE
Just pick winners, or take a break from the whole damn thing until that dark cloud of losing passes.
Chase and martingale are same actually but we use chase term for a martingale strategy where you limit your chase. Most chase systems are crap unfortunately. However, I remember there was some winning chase systems specially in baseball over years. You can find them if you search internet forums. Good ones I remember are Hookem's Simple Home Chase, Cisco's Chase System.
Prejudice is something very bad. Martingale is way to poorhouse, it's true. However, you can make money with a good chase system. However, finding a good chase system is not something easy.
I've been chasing (martingaling) one good team of each sport with very good results.
You can choose whoever. Mine are New England NFL, Penn State NCAAF, Tampa NHL, Oak City NBA and today I'm going to start chasing Penn State NCAAB.
I look for teams that don't have a good chance of long term losses.
Good luck boys.
Last edited by rkelly110; 12-01-18 at 06:24 AM.
martingale is a bookie killer.....at -105 or better unit size $ .25
Martingale will end badly in the long run. You may win for a bit but you will end up losing everything you won plus more. Stay out of it. Read more here http://bettingresource.com/do-betting-systems-work.html I would also recommend reading the money management article there...your bankroll is lot safer and will have much better long term growth using that money/bankroll management.
Only if you are Warren Buffett
Big fan of Martingale here, thinking of trying it with Russian Roulette.
I went to an Indian casino in the UP of Mich. I put $5 on 9, it hit, paying 35X$5 so I used a kind of reverse Martingale system of betting 1/3 of my now over $200 bank on red. Very quickly I had won all of the 300 chips of my color. My betting neighbor got wiped out because he said "It can't keep coming up red forever. True. But he was broke and I quit up $300. It went to the BJ table where they allowed split aces to doubled for less. ADVANTAGE: You have a pair of aces vs house 9. You split. Both of the aces draw to a 13-16. So betting $100, I could double my soft 14 for $5, basically risking $10 to turn a $200 bet into a possible winner.
Long gone I'm sure.
I'd like to hear more concrete thoughts from you as well. Take this into consideration, please.
Not native speaker, sorry for poor laguage skills.
Actually I'am up like 6k euros on online blackjack using martingale. I had about 2k in account I was betting on sports on pinnacle, but action was small, so I decided to play blackjack. started with 10 euros with early success i was up to 13k (hitting blackjack on last double up helps a lot). Then my min bet was 100 euros to make 7 bets, i was up to 24k at one moment, next day pinnacle limited my max bet to 250eur, (5000 was original max bet). I was playing with 1eur min bet, then betting 100eur without martingale and my bankroll was melting and reached 10k. I have tried martingale blackjack on pokerstars min bet $0.10. and busted $2K bankroll. And yes i was lucky at the beginning and greedy at the end, but I'am not going to play at online casinos. Maybe i'am little bit into conspiracy, but i don't believe that online casinos have ~1% edge on blackjack more like 5%.
Last edited by povis; 01-04-19 at 12:46 PM.
that is how martingale works, you win big YEAH WHOHOOO!!!!!! and then it inevitably comes! and wham bam thank you maam!
It works until it doesn't, you either have edge or you don't, it's just so much more fun playing poker, betting on sports using strick bankroll management, even with edge martingale is terrible, becouse you not gaining enough EV from your bets, and when you lose it's over. i've learned my lesson.
I use Martingale very selectively and it works for me. I track a couple of successful chase systems. I usually start with .25% of my bankroll and chase 3. If certain patterns develop that I know have a very small likelihood to continue or if the individual won/loss record is straying too far from 50% then I increase my initial bet to 1%. I do lose sometimes, but not more than I win. Maybe the variance is the key. I work off of a 10K bankroll that I built primarily using this strategy. The bankroll is actually higher than 10K, but I only work off of 10K because my books betting limits keep me where I am in bet size which is a good thing because I can't get too crazy with it. It does take some work. I am following 2 systems at the moment and each night I am getting lines and writing them down and tracking wins and losses even though I may not have money on the line. I do all of this in a notebook. I spend enough time on it that it is really like a part time job. I am not a good capper. Money management and systematic alternatives are the only way I find success.
If you have an edge, martingale is the worst possible option, kelly or flat betting would both be more profitable over the long haul because you would not be overbetting your edge after a loss (or underbetting your edge to start the chase if you choose to start conservatively).
If you do not have an edge, martingale will not help you.
I think you get my point.
What about in my situation LT, where I wouldn't know an edge if it hit me in the face? I just play number patterns and perceived percentages, not teams. Do you feel like this will be certain demise at some point? Also, the systems I track have years of winning just blindly following with strait martingale for 3 to 4 game chases, which I don't do.If you have an edge, martingale is the worst possible option, kelly or flat betting would both be more profitable over the long haul because you would not be overbetting your edge after a loss (or underbetting your edge to start the chase if you choose to start conservatively).
If you do not have an edge, martingale will not help you.
I think you get my point.
Then you just do it for recreation, so feel free to do as you choose.
My post was addressed more to guys that can identify an edge but yet still elect to use martindale even though doing so will eventually lead to ruin.
Martingale is a great system if you have unlimited funds and no imposed betting limits.
Impossible to lose.
Or if your capped chases have 100% success!
There's a sure-fire way to profit from Martingale. Figure out what the max bet is going to be with a system. If you are doubliing up to 5 times, and the base unit is 100, the max bet is 2^5 * base, or 3200.
Make sure you have the risk tolerance to book it. Most martingale players are idiots, so -110 vig will hold over 4% against them. If you have a 100k bankroll, book as many of these martingale players as you can (and make sure they aren't chasing the same plays).
Martingale System aka Bankruptcy System.
Yes with WTA breaks. I recommend you start at $5-10, and just martingale from there.
Cmon mods, move this out of the think tank.
Martingale is just casino shit. Go play roulette.
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