Anyone have any success using Martingale system?

[Mr. Peepers]

I have heard all the reasons why you shouldn't use this system such as possibly risking a ton to win a little, potentially getting limited by books when needing to place large bet etc etc but has anyone had some real life experiences along with any long term success with this system?

Thank you for the feedback,

[danshan11]

there is no such thing as long term success with martingale. with that said every time I go to the city I put up 100 a roll on roulette and than double and add 1 to it till I win and has never failed me ever, yes one day it will for sure without doubt but has never happened yet and I leave as soon as I win once whether its the first or 15th spin

[LLXC]

Really short term, MAYBE. Long term, no.

[Alfa1234]

there is no such thing as long term success with martingale. with that said every time I go to the city I put up 100 a roll on roulette and than double and add 1 to it till I win and has never failed me ever, yes one day it will for sure without doubt but has never happened yet and I leave as soon as I win once whether its the first or 15th spin

You'll be hitting the table limit real soon so I think you're joking. After 9 losses you'd be looking at a 51200 bet.

The martingale can never, ever work. Even people with a 10% ROI have losing streaks of 15 bets.

[qsgsg]

there is no peace of mind when you are on a losing streak of a Martingale stake system. especially if your games are spaced apart.

[danshan11]

You'll be hitting the table limit real soon so I think you're joking. After 9 losses you'd be looking at a 51200 bet.

The martingale can never, ever work. Even people with a 10% ROI have losing streaks of 15 bets.

oh my mistake I thought the idea was to tell a joke

[oilcountry99]

There is a successful thread across the street using a strategic limited martingale strategy with NHL parlay wagers. This is a positive example you may be interested in.

[Rich Boy]

Martingale or any other betting "system" cant overcome the fact that your wagers are -EV


If you DID have an edge, Martingale would be the worst thing to do ironically, it would ensure you lose everything at some point. Thats why players use it trying to convince themselves that they can turn -EV wagers into a winning system.

[oilcountry99]

Most people can’t find +EV wagers

[oilcountry99]

Could you not apply a strategic MM to +EV wagers if you are so inclined to find them? Flat betting is hard to generate profits on less you have a substantial betting unit, $100 minimum. The majority of players aren’t at this level. People have to start somewhere and playing with a $10 unit and being up 10 units at the end of a year is a waste of time and effort unless this is strictly a hobby and ‘for fun’ . No bet should be ever be made ‘blind’ they should all have a handicap attached to it and wager amount attached to it should be part of the handicap as well.

[slapshot]

There is a successful thread across the street using a strategic limited martingale strategy with NHL parlay wagers. This is a positive example you may be interested in.

sounds interesting...where can the thread be found?

[JoeCool20]

The point is that martingale only wins the original bet. So if you start with $100, and lose, then bet $200 and lose, then bet $400 and lose, then $800, then $1600, then $3200, then $6400, then $12800, and you finally win that bet, then you won $100, but you just risked losing $25,500 to win $100.
Obviously that becomes ridiculous real fast. But if you think that is worth it for you, then try it.

[HeeeHAWWWW]

Could you not apply a strategic MM to +EV wagers if you are so inclined to find them?

Over-staking > negative EG > long-term bankruptcy. This is true regardless of how big your edge is.

[oilcountry99]

sounds interesting...where can the thread be found?

across the street...systems and strategies

[oilcountry99]

NHL 2 TEAM ROAD PARLAY SYSTEM

, put that in the old googler

[oilcountry99]

Over-staking > negative EG > long-term bankruptcy. This is true regardless of how big your edge is.

Does anyone really ever have an edge? and how do you truly know? This is my whole issue with kelly criterion and +EV wagers. How can one successfully find an edge on a regular long term basis? A very very very select few can probably do it in the major sports markets. I'm not talking cricket and badminton here.

I'd love more insight on how this is done, I love to learn.

[tsty]

Lol

[danshan11]

Does anyone really ever have an edge? and how do you truly know? This is my whole issue with kelly criterion and +EV wagers. How can one successfully find an edge on a regular long term basis? A very very very select few can probably do it in the major sports markets. I'm not talking cricket and badminton here.

I'd love more insight on how this is done, I love to learn.

Getting an edge is a simple process really
create a fair line
bet when the line available is not fair, based on your fair line

now the issue is repeating that enough times in high enough volume to overcome variance.

[oilcountry99]

Getting an edge is a simple process really
create a fair line
bet when the line available is not fair, based on your fair line

now the issue is repeating that enough times in high enough volume to overcome variance.

This is not easy...if so more than 5% of bettors would be long term winners.

[oilcountry99]

Lol

You're my HERO

[tsty]

You posted so much gibberish in the other thread and argued with so much conviction but look at you now lol

Fwiw not even 0.1% of betters are winners long term and not even 1% of them would be making enough money to beat minimum wage

[oilcountry99]

You posted so much gibberish in the other thread and argued with so much conviction but look at you now lol

Not sure what your talking about.

Fwiw not even 0.1% of betters are winners long term and not even 1% of them would be making enough money to beat minimum wage

So you're even better than I thought, must be in the 1% of the 0.1%

[tsty]

It would be impressive if every bettor was trying to go pro

[danshan11]

Honestly tsty you might be the smartest greatest bettor, but I dont see anything you said that proves that, you are vague and dont commit to a single word. I might be 100% wrong in what i think but at least I say it! if you want us to take you serious say something with some meat on it

[Greenline]

The only place I've had moderate success with it is on some of the BTC dice sites where my unit is a satoshi and my roll is over 20M.

[danshan11]

The only place I've had moderate success with it is on some of the BTC dice sites where my unit is a satoshi and my roll is over 20M.

well in theory Martingale is unbeatable and if you had an unlimited bankroll and the places to get down this heavy you would be unbeatable.

[Greenline]

well in theory Martingale is unbeatable and if you had an unlimited bankroll and the places to get down this heavy you would be unbeatable.

Even there, my break is only 23 consecutive losses. And im rolling over 60s, so 39.9999999% chance to win.

[danshan11]

that is crazy, but I have said to myself many times I know I can pick one out of 10 winners in football, LOL

[conorb]

Is this a genuine question that the orignal poster posed?.. Martingale doesn't make any sense it is a very destructive system, like someone said it's a fast way to destroy a bankroll placing only +EV bets

I'm pretty sure level staking is the best system to use for MOST people.. unless you can calculate your edge consistently and accurately - which may be easier with certain bet types, i.e. two way totals and two way ATS betting (this seems to be by far the most popular type of betting for US players as opposed to betting money line and more varied odds which is more common here in Europe).

I use mostly level staking but I will increase my stake when I think the price or line is really really wrong...I don't know too much about implementing Kelly but from what I gather unless you really truly know what you are doing and have a very good idea of your edge then it can cause more problems than it's worth (i.e. over staking and under staking) - would be interested to hear what other peoples opinions on Kelly are?

Pinnacle did an interesting article on staking strategies a while back where they ran simulations of the same bets using five staking strategies including Martingale if anyone is interested -

https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-articles/Betting-Strategy/staking-one-method-to-improve-your-betting/2962VHE9W3JPJ7X7

[conorb]

Does anyone really ever have an edge? and how do you truly know? This is my whole issue with kelly criterion and +EV wagers. How can one successfully find an edge on a regular long term basis? A very very very select few can probably do it in the major sports markets. I'm not talking cricket and badminton here.

I'd love more insight on how this is done, I love to learn.

One way is if you can bet early enough in the life cycle of a market (ideally when lines are not long up) and see if you beat the closing line on a regular basis?.. I guess that would tell you but it would need to be over a large sample size so that you are not just getting lucky beating the closing numbers. I do agree with you in general though that Kelly must be very difficult to properly implement



** On Cricket - it is a HUGE betting market it might come after only European soccer / football!

[tsty]

Honestly tsty you might be the smartest greatest bettor, but I dont see anything you said that proves that, you are vague and dont commit to a single word. I might be 100% wrong in what i think but at least I say it! if you want us to take you serious say something with some meat on it

don't let your emotions get the better of you my friend

[Mr. Peepers]

The point is that martingale only wins the original bet. So if you start with $100, and lose, then bet $200 and lose, then bet $400 and lose, then $800, then $1600, then $3200, then $6400, then $12800, and you finally win that bet, then you won $100, but you just risked losing $25,500 to win $100.
Obviously that becomes ridiculous real fast. But if you think that is worth it for you, then try it.

I understand where you are coming from but replacing those dollar amounts with 1, 3, 9, 27, 81, 243, and 729 and seems a whole lot less intimidating...

[Mr. Peepers]

that is crazy, but I have said to myself many times I know I can pick one out of 10 winners in football, LOL

Bingo...And honestly if you picked your spots and did lose 10 picks in a row and blew your entire bankroll do you have any business sports betting? You likely would be headed that same direction flat betting or playing 5% of roll each bet you just got there a hell of a lot faster and saved yourself the time and aggravation.

[slapshot]

NHL 2 TEAM ROAD PARLAY SYSTEM

, put that in the old googler

:

[MikeTizzy]

worst system ever thought of, thats it.