No "Systems" in the Think Tank please

**yanky yank** · 06-28-10, 12:05 PM

System Great

**yanky yank** · 06-28-10, 05:38 PM

I'm new but y is it I have posted things but I don't have any points

**ZombieWolverine** · 07-01-10, 05:29 PM

hummmm dont know

**underthe total** · 07-07-10, 07:29 PM

Originally posted by Justin7

If 30 players get promoted from square to sharp, the food chain won't even blink.

what number do you think would make a difference?

**muldoon** · 07-30-10, 11:23 AM

Wouldn't it make more sense to have a "sub" forum, or an agreed method where if a system was nominated X times, you'd move it over to "Justin's System Room" where the volume of systems would be lower, but you could still accommodate folks who want to discuss/post other methods?

**parlaybetwinners** · 09-06-10, 06:32 PM

I also agree! Even if a system loses, it's still a system. If you are following a pattern of any kind, then it's a system!

**dinaro7** · 09-18-10, 08:50 AM

fla tenn under

**goallinebob** · 09-28-10, 06:32 PM

after reading thru this thread i see nothing good.. all systems are good to a degree,,even Chase systems but all must be reviewed and played with caution IMO,,,

**Shonner** · 09-28-10, 09:09 PM

The whole point of this is that these threads are supposed to involve some degree of handicapping or statistical/math analysis, not a system where you blindly make -EV bets until you win.

**Borat38** · 11-05-10, 11:51 PM

Originally posted by muldoon

Wouldn't it make more sense to have a "sub" forum, or an agreed method where if a system was nominated X times, you'd move it over to "Justin's System Room" where the volume of systems would be lower, but you could still accommodate folks who want to discuss/post other methods?

Not a good idea. Let the noise run wild, and let the diligent ones work through to the gems.

Do not think for a moment that the books are not paying attention to these forums. Don't overestimate forums like SBR, but don't underestimate them either. It'd only take a few minutes of spreadsheet work for a book to backtest any quantitative approach, and if it's worth adjusting, they will adjust—making it harder to beat them.

**Ratzz** · 11-17-10, 08:14 PM

must be some wining system somewhere

**Wrecktangle** · 11-18-10, 08:08 AM

Originally posted by Ratzz

must be some wining system somewhere

Yes there are, and most of them (essentially all that I explored, but I'm giving myself some wiggle room) are built upon some underlying data/math relationship. But the smaller the sample size in the angle, the greater the angle is some stat quirk and not a data/math phenomenon.

**vividjohn45** · 11-24-10, 02:53 AM

"raw" system betting is no good anyway. they will contradict good handicaping techniques , forcing you to put ur money on a team that u know that if u win, ur just getting lucky anyway.

ex. knowing that nbateams coming of a successful three game road trip are flat at home first game and the road
team is a good ats play.

but the fact that chicago bullz are playing well on thier current road trip (in away mode) along with a unstoppable derek rose to keep the score tighter, made them a good play tonite on the returning home mode Lakers ((conquering heros, now getting adjusted back to home fans)

**underthe total** · 12-09-10, 02:23 AM

Originally posted by Ratzz

must be some wining system somewhere

haha thats right my winning system has turned into a whining system.

this downturn is rougher than others have been, but i am still fighting and it looks to be turning around.

**underthe total** · 12-09-10, 02:26 AM

Originally posted by Borat38

Not a good idea. Let the noise run wild, and let the diligent ones work through to the gems. Do not think for a moment that the books are not paying attention to these forums. Don't overestimate forums like SBR, but don't underestimate them either. It'd only take a few minutes of spreadsheet work for a book to backtest any quantitative approach, and if it's worth adjusting, they will adjust—making it harder to beat them.

there is one they will not ever overcome and that is line movements. however they combat that wih lower limits and often eliminate players.
fuckemall

**spargament** · 01-05-11, 04:02 PM

Originally posted by curinator

All Justin is saying is anything not related to finding value in a line through a quantitative approach is worthless in the long run (which is true). All qualitative approaches whether they be situational or betting against the public will correct themselves when enough people become aware of them. Blindly making wagers in this regard will not work long term. Finding value in a line quantitatively AND combining a sensible qualitative approach (betting against the public for one) will help to boost profit on turnover, at least in the short term. The point is, you must have some sort of quantitative approach anchoring what you are doing in terms of finding value or you are setting yourself up for failure.

I know this is like totally dinosaur stuff, but I have to say that this is one of my personal favorite posts I've ever read on this entire forum. Honestly it could have been some clown that doesn't like me from the MMA subforum posting this and I would give kudos.

If SBR is still looking for cappers and writers, and this guy is still around, (and is willing/has the time), hire this poster. Please. You could not have asked for a better explanation (both in how thorough it was and simultaneously the relative simplicity) of the lesson to be learned from the topic at hand.

**fotzan** · 01-11-11, 06:47 AM

So Is there a good system or method?

**rafa martin** · 01-11-11, 03:39 PM

Originally posted by HedgeHog

The idea of the think tank is to discuss the merits of various betting systems. Chase systems are crap but they deserve to be discussed because many buy into it. Same goes for most mechanical systems. Normally I agree with Justin, but this seems like censorship to me. As long as the OP seems sincere, the thread should be allowed IMO.

hey guys i am from spain,,,, i accumulated losses over 20000 usd in thev last 3 years most in live betting,,,, hiw can i changed my betting behavior,,, what do you guys means when you talk about a system,,, i though betting in sports what all about picking winners,, please explain to me, i want to learm from you guys and become a winner,, thanks to all of you for helping others,

**Counterfeit Cash** · 02-05-11, 04:18 PM

hmmm, this thread has been quite useful to me...time to sift through the think tank I suppose.

**Counterfeit Cash** · 02-05-11, 04:18 PM

didn't mean to double..

**CyberSleuth** · 02-12-11, 09:42 PM

Great thread. Short, but very informative.

**kero214** · 02-23-11, 06:21 PM

I for one like seeing people's systems, even if it is crap. Forum censorship?

**dbldbl1212** · 03-08-11, 09:35 PM

i just do action reverses their good for halfs and you cant use betting systems, just gut instincts

**Exquisite** · 03-15-11, 07:13 PM

Originally posted by Justin7

A system is any type of betting that doesn't care what the spread or money line is. If you follow this, you will lose. Please don't clutter up the Think Tank with losing systems.

Couldn't disagree with you more

**Exquisite** · 03-15-11, 07:35 PM

My system works in every sport and doesn't matter what the spread is.

**TRE1968** · 03-15-11, 07:46 PM

Originally posted by Exquisite

My system works in every sport and doesn't matter what the spread is.

post it

**underthe total** · 03-16-11, 08:25 PM

**Hybris** · 03-24-11, 10:26 AM

Originally posted by Exquisite

My system works in every sport and doesn't matter what the spread is.

**kero214** · 04-03-11, 04:05 AM

Originally posted by Exquisite

My system works in every sport and doesn't matter what the spread is.

**Sawyer** · 04-03-11, 06:36 AM

Originally posted by Justin7

Quote:
Originally Posted by Justin7
A system is any type of betting that doesn't care what the spread or money line is. If you follow this, you will lose. Please don't clutter up the Think Tank with losing systems.

This is not true. Some systems care what the spread or money line is.

**underthe total** · 04-03-11, 11:43 AM

it seems to me most systems use price as a filter.

i play based only on price

**gryfyn1** · 04-03-11, 12:06 PM

am I think only on who thinks of this whenever i see the title of this thread?

**Warwick44** · 04-06-11, 07:42 AM

Hi guys, I'm new to this forum. I've been reading through this thread, and others...and I am astounded at how many guys are on here talking up "systems" which are based on little more than incidental statistics. PARTICULARLY short statistical runs that are really just 'noise.'

After reading about a hundred references to this "John Morrisson" guy and his "system" I did a little Googling...you would have to be mentally ill to believe in such % claims alone, without even listening to what the "system" is about. It defies common sense. If anything were that good, nobody would be selling it, they would be using it in complete secrecy and then buying an island to live on and paying Playboy Bunnies to 'accompany' them.

From what I read, and what I've been reading about with these "chase" systems, is that they boil down to little more than a modern day variation on Martingale, no? And that was disproven AGES ago.

Are there really that many people who emply this kind of thing? Or are there just loud guys on this forum trying to sell it, but nobody really buys into it?

**brad89** · 04-06-11, 04:34 PM

Originally posted by Warwick44

Are there really that many people who emply this kind of thing? Or are there just loud guys on this forum trying to sell it, but nobody really buys into it?

I assume the people have used their "system" over ~20 plays and think it's the best thing in the world and/or they are just stupid.

**Warwick44** · 04-06-11, 06:23 PM

I guess gambling is just a reflection of just about every other human pursuit...people don't take enough account of what they don't know. And worse, they think what little they do know, is all that is knowable.