No "Systems" in the Think Tank please

[Aman_Dage]

If players would learn to bet just with rotation #'s and not look at who is playing or who is pitching, booking would come to an end.

[underthe total]

hey who said that?

[diondublin]

A system is any type of betting that doesn't care what the spread or money line is. If you follow this, you will lose. Please don't clutter up the Think Tank with losing systems.

This assumes that the market is not 'reliable' in terms of the number it ends up as. It may just be that it is reliable in this way even if few or none know it and therefore it can be discounted in a system.

[BediMindtricks]

according to who?

[afrodeschiac]

Man, I was just putting the final touches on a 125-41 ATS system. But it doesn't consider the line, so I won't be posting it.

Damn, that sounds good. If you do post that system somewhere lets us know so we can check it out. thanks

[supershark]

Hmm, this has been a very interesting read.
I have a degree in applied economics, so I have some mathematical skills (in statistics and econometrics) Justin7, what are your thoughts on a auto-regression compiling pitching/batting win/loss statistical measures for baseball to calculate a 'win' probability.. to be compared against the line. Is it worthwhile to make one? or will I just get squashed?

[bztips]

Hmm, this has been a very interesting read.
I have a degree in applied economics, so I have some mathematical skills (in statistics and econometrics) Justin7, what are your thoughts on a auto-regression compiling pitching/batting win/loss statistical measures for baseball to calculate a 'win' probability.. to be compared against the line. Is it worthwhile to make one? or will I just get squashed?

At the risk of downgrading Justin7's modeling skills, I don't believe he has much of a math/econometric background (he had to have someone else estimate a logit model for him for use in his book). Nevertheless, his book is very useful if you're just getting started in sports betting.

However, you sound confused yourself. An autoregression to calculate win probabilities, as its name indicates, would involve regressing win probabilities just on past values of win probabilities -- which is virtually guanteed to fail.

[supershark]

At the risk of downgrading Justin7's modeling skills, I don't believe he has much of a math/econometric background (he had to have someone else estimate a logit model for him for use in his book). Nevertheless, his book is very useful if you're just getting started in sports betting.

However, you sound confused yourself. An autoregression to calculate win probabilities, as its name indicates, would involve regressing win probabilities just on past values of win probabilities -- which is virtually guanteed to fail.

You are correct, and I guess that's what Justin7 and others was saying would not work going into the future .... however I think something that takes into account 'all' (or many) past probability systems should fare better than just a simple bet against a team that has covered the spread in 3 straight. Anyways, are there any good books on mathematical models for sports gambling. Something at the graduate level wouldn't scare me too much.

[Wrecktangle]

At the risk of downgrading Justin7's modeling skills, I don't believe he has much of a math/econometric background (he had to have someone else estimate a logit model for him for use in his book). Nevertheless, his book is very useful if you're just getting started in sports betting.

However, you sound confused yourself. An autoregression to calculate win probabilities, as its name indicates, would involve regressing win probabilities just on past values of win probabilities -- which is virtually guanteed to fail.

Something for you guys who fall in love with your models:

All models are wrong, but some are useful. ~ Statistician George E. P. Box

[bztips]

Thanks for that wonderful insight

[Wrecktangle]

Thanks for that wonderful insight

You're welcome; frequentists need all the help they can get.

[spargament]

Something for you guys who fall in love with your models: All models are wrong, but some are useful. ~ Statistician George E. P. Box

I still laugh when I say this because I think about the Chappelle popcorn skit, but the traditional Box-Cox transformation with a shift parameter could be awfully useful in eliminating noise from systems that DO incorporate price and regression analysis, no? It's been a long time since I've tried working a system, and even longer since I've been in a math or econ class, but that makes sense...I think..

..

[cliffcoast]

All Justin is saying is anything not related to finding value in a line through a quantitative approach is worthless in the long run (which is true). All qualitative approaches whether they be situational or betting against the public will correct themselves when enough people become aware of them. Blindly making wagers in this regard will not work long term. Finding value in a line quantitatively AND combining a sensible qualitative approach (betting against the public for one) will help to boost profit on turnover, at least in the short term. The point is, you must have some sort of quantitative approach anchoring what you are doing in terms of finding value or you are setting yourself up for failure.

I like your answer to this question. I'm a businessman and have done well in real estate as a builder and a Landlord. All the math associated with both is simple, money math. Nothing complicated.

My question. Can you reccomend a way, book, course, etc that a newbie with my background could learn quantatative analysis to sports betting?

Thank you,

Cliff

[cliffcoast]

You are correct, and I guess that's what Justin7 and others was saying would not work going into the future .... however I think something that takes into account 'all' (or many) past probability systems should fare better than just a simple bet against a team that has covered the spread in 3 straight. Anyways, are there any good books on mathematical models for sports gambling. Something at the graduate level wouldn't scare me too much.

Did you get any good book suggestions? Something at thw graduate level woBuld scare me. I'll say (humbly & greatfully) that I've done really well as a Builder, Landlord, Land Developer. But the math involved in all of it is so basic. I mean accounting 101 basic, really. When my peers in the biz try to get fancy that always are less profitable or simple complain that they get the same result but with 5x more work.

My question. Can you reccomend a basic book, video course, etc that will teach me how to apply quanatative analysis to sports investing?

Thanks,

Cliff

[Riceboi]

Did you get any good book suggestions? Something at thw graduate level woBuld scare me. I'll say (humbly & greatfully) that I've done really well as a Builder, Landlord, Land Developer. But the math involved in all of it is so basic. I mean accounting 101 basic, really. When my peers in the biz try to get fancy that always are less profitable or simple complain that they get the same result but with 5x more work. My question. Can you reccomend a basic book, video course, etc that will teach me how to apply quanatative analysis to sports investing? Thanks, Cliff

I would also like to know about books.

[St.Bernard1991]

i feel you are out of line Justin. Who are you to say what systems are legit and which aren't. Unless you can prove to me you are a career winning handicapper, I don't care what your take on the matter is. For those of you who don't wish to follow, don't. I will post my daily progress for those skeptics. You claim "chasing" doesn't work. how can you claim this when none of you have ever seen my handicapping ability. I am using several statistics and variables to determine my picks. This is one of the worlds most popular betting systems. So if you are going to remove this, please change the subtitle on the forum because is claims betting strategies and systems.

[FourLengthsClear]

i feel you are out of line Justin. Who are you to say what systems are legit and which aren't. Unless you can prove to me you are a career winning handicapper, I don't care what your take on the matter is. For those of you who don't wish to follow, don't. I will post my daily progress for those skeptics. You claim "chasing" doesn't work. how can you claim this when none of you have ever seen my handicapping ability. I am using several statistics and variables to determine my picks. This is one of the worlds most popular betting systems. So if you are going to remove this, please change the subtitle on the forum because is claims betting strategies and systems.

It takes the mathematical abilities of an eight year old to prove that chasing/martingale does not work. If you are a winning handicapper there is zero benefit in the long run to chasing even when compared to flat betting.

Your handicapping ability is one thing (you can post your plays in "player's talk" or one of the sub-forums), wrapping them up in a chase system is another thing altogether but is still not for the Think Tank.

[Justin7]

St. Bernard,

I publicly tracked a lot of my plays for a couple years here: http://justin7.mysbrforum.com/spreadsheet/ You can decide for yourself whether those bets are winners, whether they beat the closing price, and use any other analysis you want. 1600 plays won't guarantee anything, but it is enough to profile a player.

If you are a handicapper, you understand expected value, and optimal bet sizing. Chase systems use neither. All they do is add variance. Even if you were a brilliant handicapper, you would be better off using a non-chase bet sizing approach. This has been discussed so many times, I'm simply not willing to waste threads on it in the HTT.

[SBExposed]

i agree. there are systems that actually work.

unfortunately, dumazz people don't work the systems. they usually get greedy when they see the bankroll growing.

a true system must include: money management, elimination filters, & historical success of a MINIMUM of the 5 most recent years.

[SBExposed]

and how do you do that? is there an ebook or course you're recommending?

[fitguy67]

i think what should be frowned upon is any method/technique/protocol/system where bets are sized primarily on the basis of attempting to recover previously-accrued losses+chalk...ie. any and all sorts of "chasing"/"line clearing" schemes...

they are incorrectly construed as "money management" techniques...but in reality they inevitably are nothing more than "volatility magnification" techniques

[MH]

Has anyone ever considered combining option pricing theory from quantitative finance with sports betting?

[GunShard]

Actually, there are system that does care what the money line value is, so banning systems is unreasonable.

[GunShard]

There's a lot of systems that I am experiementing with play points on various sites.

1. Zig zag betting on NHL playoffs
2. ATS power ranking bets on the NFL
3. O/U betting on the NFL past Week 4 or greater.
4. Fade the public system.

[arpeggiomeister]

St. Bernard,

I publicly tracked a lot of my plays for a couple years here: http://justin7.mysbrforum.com/spreadsheet/ You can decide for yourself whether those bets are winners, whether they beat the closing price, and use any other analysis you want. 1600 plays won't guarantee anything, but it is enough to profile a player.

If you are a handicapper, you understand expected value, and optimal bet sizing. Chase systems use neither. All they do is add variance. Even if you were a brilliant handicapper, you would be better off using a non-chase bet sizing approach. This has been discussed so many times, I'm simply not willing to waste threads on it in the HTT.

I have been fascinated by the idea of chasing for years and I have seen these arguments many times. I understand what Justin7 is trying to do. Though I believe it is possible for chase systems to work there is no denying the professional approach is far more effective. If you can maintain a 57% to 60%+ win ratio consistently then it is no wonder that you would view chasing is dangerous.

The difference in dispute here is the difference between a gambler and an investor. I do not consider the "sharps" to be gamblers. They know by keeping their win percentage above 52.4% on 11/10 odds that over time they will make money. The laws of probability dictate that over time this approach will make money. This is the same paradigm the casinos use to make money turned against them.

A gambler using a chase system does not believe in his/her ability to maintain such a percentage and thus is willing to risk his/her bankroll to show a profit. Chase systems can profit in the short term but it is necassary to have an exit strategy.

My biggest hangup that keeps me studying chase systems is that the negative EV argument is based on the assumption that the results are random. I do not believe this to be true. The point spreads (I am using this as a sweeping term to include all odds devices such as over unders, moneylines, etc) are created by public opinion. These spreads are adjusted to keep money even on both sides. This is designed to keep the favorites/underdogs win ratio roughly 50/50. There are short term biases that come about, but long term the system is very effective. The problem is that the very system is not random, it's based on public opinion. That opinion can be tracked and used to create an advantage. I believe it can be chased.

I have great respect for anyone who can maintain a winning percentage the way Justin7 is recommending. He wants this area reserved for that approach.

I will continue to post my ideas in the other areas of the forum. I do think it would be good to have an area for people to discuss their ideas even if they are "bad" or "doomed to fail". You want to keep the think tank clear of that. I think the best solution would be to have two areas; one to discuss your ideas on maintaining a win percentage (the sharp approach) and another for mechanical systems such as the Martingale. Just a thought.

[Loan.Rombauer]

wonderful submit, very informative. I ponder why the opposite specialists of this sector do not understand this. You must continue your writing. I am sure, you've a huge readers' base already! best wishes

[sbrhedge]

Has anyone ever considered combining option pricing theory from quantitative finance with sports betting?

yes, but it's difficult be long gamma and sequentially rollup vega. it does work if you apply it in certain ways.

[yak merchant]

yes, but it's difficult be long gamma and sequentially rollup vega. it does work if you apply it in certain ways.

Huh? So please explain how you plan on getting "long vega".

[TomG]

derivativessssszzzzzz

[339955]

TomG, I have a couple questions for you regarding MLB. First of all, I was looking through the archives on 2+2 and saw a thread you started in 2007 where you handicapped MLB full game and seemed to have reasonable results with about 200 games you handicapped and then quit. Do you handicap MLB full game now, how have you progressed the last 5 years?

Secondly, how do you structure you MLB databases? It seems like to tackle MLB you need more data to do anything than with other sports. I was thinking one DB which would have each FG with FG spread, price, score inning by inning, etc and a unique ID. Then another DB where each unique ID from the first DB links to a table, or an entry in a huge DB, of play by play information for the entire MLB game. Then I can generate player stats on the fly from the play by play database, I think...

thanks for any thoughts