[BlitzTheBooks]

Say a team is -7. Is it fairly standard across the board for the ML to be "-XXX" amount? Or does that vary according to each book?

I'm also curious if it varies according to sport. Using SBR's tool, a 7 point college fav is (-280.1) but on sportility, an NFL fav of -7 is -310. Even SBR's is diff on the NFL (-7 is 371.4). Slightly lost on where they get their ML values and how to actually read them and do something with it.

Forgive the newbie-ish post, I'm just now delving into ML value and analysis. If it's anything like watching spread odds, there has to be some value in figuring out what the book REALLY thinks about the line (ie. when -110 on a 7 point spread moves to -115 you know there's an impending to 7.5).

[bubblebuttluv]

Yes, I believe ML's should be the same amount at online books and in vegas.

Like a team being a 7 point favorite SHOULD be -310 (or whatever the number) at Caesars, LVH, etc.

Now a local may have different moneylines than a casino (like if it is on the home-town team), but that is their choice of course.

The other thing is a 7 point favorite in the NFL has a different moneyline than a 7 point favorite in college. That's just the way it is.

[BlitzTheBooks]

Yes, I believe ML's should be the same amount at online books and in vegas.

Like a team being a 7 point favorite SHOULD be -310 (or whatever the number) at Caesars, LVH, etc.

Now a local may have different moneylines than a casino (like if it is on the home-town team), but that is their choice of course.

The other thing is a 7 point favorite in the NFL has a different moneyline than a 7 point favorite in college. That's just the way it is.

Well, I'm not really meaning offshore vs Vegas. Should have been more specific, it's just books in general. Trying to learn to analyze ML odds to spot future moves or value.

So I didn't know if there's an actual formula or way that bookies, Vegas, offshore, etc come up with their value.

I do a lot of ML parlays and obviously line shop but today I saw some massive discrepancies in ML odds so it got me wondering WHY and if there's something I should be catching like this:

Say there's a certain region the ML should fall in if a team is '-X' favorite, if I see the ML is way out of that range it could mean the books feel the team will win but not cover or vice versa.

*Apologies for the horrid examples, hard to get this question across accurately*

[SteveRyan]

Say there's a certain region the ML should fall in if a team is '-X' favorite, if I see the ML is way out of that range it could mean the books feel the team will win but not cover or vice versa.

I would think not. Remember, the goal of any book is to balance the money on both sides because they want to minimize risk and just clean up on the juice. Books use formulas for ML odds, but will adjust them accordingly to entice action on the other side.

[BlitzTheBooks]

I would think not. Remember, the goal of any book is to balance the money on both sides because they want to minimize risk and just clean up on the juice. Books use formulas for ML odds, but will adjust them accordingly to entice action on the other side.

Good point and thanks. Figured I'd ask, see if there's any angle to watching ML odds and their movements to project what sharps/books think may happen.

[tto827]

Also has a lot to do with the total. A 7 point favorite in a game with a listed total of 69.5 is going to be a smaller fav then a 7 point favorite with a listed total of 38.