When do sharp players bet? Does it matter?

[danshan11]

I think a majority of sharp players bet as soon limits go up but is that really true? What are the advantages to betting at certain times other than the obvious two
1 early to anticipate line movement
2 last second, you have the most up to date accurate game info

[solring]

Bet when you have the best line at the best limit available.

[danshan11]

does that tend to be a certain time, normally?

[Alfa1234]

No, you bet as soon as the line comes out and you can get the value. Waiting makes no sense as you have no guarantee at all the odd won't be gone by the time limits go up. If anything, it's a bad indication as you are not the only one able to identify value and if the line stays how it is until limits go up, it means the line is probably accurate.

Check Pinnacle opening lines, the limits are tiny and the line/odd moves all over the place at first untill a balance is found (a more or less correct line), then and only then will the limits go up. Same goes for Betonline, they often open NBA, NFL and NCAA lines before Pinnacle does.

I often bet the opening lines on tiny markets (reserve soccer, lower divisions or smaller basketball markets) and see this happen daily. There is a lot of value to be found in the opening lines but the longer you wait the less value you can find.

[danshan11]

alfa your point is valid but 99% of the people here know who is gonna win and they really dont care about line value.
there are line chasers and there are people who know who is gonna win
I think line chasers bet as soon as the limits are high enough to take their action
I think people who know who is gonna win bet when they get home from their day job (ie when convenient). I mean if someone has a good idea the Raiders are gonna blow out the Chiefs, they dont care about 3 or 4 cents on the moneyline or a half point or 1 of spread. Right?

[QuantumLeap]

No, you bet as soon as the line comes out and you can get the value. Waiting makes no sense as you have no guarantee at all the odd won't be gone by the time limits go up. If anything, it's a bad indication as you are not the only one able to identify value and if the line stays how it is until limits go up, it means the line is probably accurate.

Check Pinnacle opening lines, the limits are tiny and the line/odd moves all over the place at first untill a balance is found (a more or less correct line), then and only then will the limits go up. Same goes for Betonline, they often open NBA, NFL and NCAA lines before Pinnacle does.

I often bet the opening lines on tiny markets (reserve soccer, lower divisions or smaller basketball markets) and see this happen daily. There is a lot of value to be found in the opening lines but the longer you wait the less value you can find.

How do you know which line is the winning line? In other words, don't you bet early and find out that it's the wrong side of the bet? Betting early in that case doesn't do any good.

[Alfa1234]

How do you know which line is the winning line? In other words, don't you bet early and find out that it's the wrong side of the bet? Betting early in that case doesn't do any good.

You don't know the "winning" line, your model identifies the correct line and if the opening line is better (and your model is good) you bet that line as soon as it comes out. By waiting you run the risk of not getting the value. This hinges upon having a good model off course. You can always rebet in case the line does go your way or if it moves enough, but there is no point in waiting to see what happens because there is no way that can help you.

[LLXC]

Bet when you have the best line at the best limit available.

Agreed, this is very important when you're betting fringe sports with low limits.

For example, NCAA FCS games that I want to bet I am waiting till the line shows up on more books the day of the games.

[gojetsgomoxies]

semi-grunch,

i have really noticed this year that large NCAA spreads tend to get larger from the opener. (note that alot of large spread games are early season non-conference)...

is there a free database to analyze line movements? like sports database (but it doesn't have tons of betting data, more fundamental game result/stats focus)

as for information, the more that is out there i think the much more effiicient the market becomes and the more it benefits the square better (on a relative basis) ........ a good handicapper you want to have such good general knowledge that you have good feel with incomplete specific info.... of course, you don't want to be on the other side from inside info but i think that's most a concern at very small limit sports (like challenger tennis)

i will note that good general info i think means both 1) knowing where to go to find/interpret info; 2) having a good general feel for the league (like an NCAA football conference or a specfiic european soccer league)

[grey area]

after good days tread lightly till a bad one

[QuantumLeap]

You don't know the "winning" line, your model identifies the correct line and if the opening line is better (and your model is good) you bet that line as soon as it comes out. By waiting you run the risk of not getting the value. This hinges upon having a good model off course. You can always rebet in case the line does go your way or if it moves enough, but there is no point in waiting to see what happens because there is no way that can help you.

So it comes down to your model identifying the correct line.

Thanks for the explanation.

[danshan11]

model gives you a "fair" line if you get value above the margin you bet it
does not matter -400 or +500 or if they are "HOT" or "COLD" or any other nonsense

also your model must be deadly accurate

if you average being off the historic closing lines with your model by a bunch, that means your model is garbage and needs a ton of work. you need your line to be very close to the closing line on "most" games and only have a very few number of games where there is margin+ value.

[nash13]

since you can not predict the future, it is hard to identify the timing.
if your opening line is +150 on the ML, and you identify value, and the line increases to 170 you loose 20 cents. but if the closing line drops to +130 you will beat the closing line. Value is value nevertheless. a line of 1.01 can be value if you are 100% sure.
so this discussion is theoretically since success in betting depends not on picks only, it depends on limits and timing.
i'd rather take a limitless bookie where i still can get bets with value.

[Ian]

It depends.

If you bet small, openers are often the best time.

If you bet above the limits of openers, bet when the limits get lifted.

If you plan on fading a public bet, you'll often want to wait until 15 minutes or so before close so that the public can move the line in your favor as much as possible. (Mayweather vs. McGregor was an example of this)

Certain niche markets where many books don't hang lines until shortly before the event are better to hit late because you can profit more off of line shopping than you can by betting a potentially soft opener.

Just my opinion...

[Alfa1234]

It depends.

If you bet small, openers are often the best time.

If you bet above the limits of openers, bet when the limits get lifted.

If you plan on fading a public bet, you'll often want to wait until 15 minutes or so before close so that the public can move the line in your favor as much as possible. (Mayweather vs. McGregor was an example of this)

Certain niche markets where many books don't hang lines until shortly before the event are better to hit late because you can profit more off of line shopping than you can by betting a potentially soft opener.

Just my opinion...

No, you don't wait till the limits get lifted. You still bet the opening line and hope it moves back so you can bet more. By waiting you'll miss a lot of value. It's better to get on 30% or 50% of the stake you wanted at a good line than get on nothing at all by risking a line move. Waiting makes no sense IMHO.

[Bsims]

Is this really an appropriate discussion in this forum?

Handicapper Think Tank

Handicapping theories, betting systems, tips, tricks, odds and math

[danshan11]

Bsims, I am trying to be nice and respectable to you, so please take this as kindly as possible, you are just a hater on me, no idea why but anyway this is tips tricks and more about when to bet and why, this conversation is 100% more relevant than the crap system stuff you talk about even though even your crap belongs in the think tank. Please be nice and accept what I give just as I listen and reply to the stuff you say. I dont know it all but I know the 1st guy to score on third down is more likely to win on cloudy days! My apologies in advance for being harsh but you have been nitpicking me, pleas refrain unless I am out of place, thanks in advance!

[Ian]

No, you don't wait till the limits get lifted. You still bet the opening line and hope it moves back so you can bet more. By waiting you'll miss a lot of value. It's better to get on 30% or 50% of the stake you wanted at a good line than get on nothing at all by risking a line move. Waiting makes no sense IMHO.

As a (primarily) small market bettor the reason I don't subscribe to your method is because a limit bet on an opener will usually move the line, often substantially. I don't want to cripple my own odds by making a small bet when I can let it sit there and almost always get it for the full amount later on.

In a larger market where you're only slightly over the limit then I see the merit to your point.

Just my opinion...

[danshan11]

yeah early bettors help adjust the line, but I think the line still recovers if early bettors are wrong, it will move back

[Alfa1234]

As a (primarily) small market bettor the reason I don't subscribe to your method is because a limit bet on an opener will usually move the line, often substantially. I don't want to cripple my own odds by making a small bet when I can let it sit there and almost always get it for the full amount later on.

In a larger market where you're only slightly over the limit then I see the merit to your point.

Just my opinion...

I actually do the complete opposite on Pinnacle. Whenever an opening line has value I identify in small markets (I'm not sure how small we are talking about here, but I'm talking 40-80€ opening limits) I have to take advantage immediately. It's extremely rare the value remains there long enough for the limits to go up in those markets.

To each his own I guess, but I've found this to be the case in small soccer games (reserve and youth leagues) as well as all non-top tier basketball games. I can't speak for other markets, but Pinnacle has nothing that opens smaller than those limits.

Whenever I bet value at local bookies I just place limit bets as soon as I identify the value. Those books don't use the weight of money to adjust lines or care about a balanced book, so a limit bet doesn't move the line there anyway (most European books work that way).

[danshan11]

did you say 100-200 dollars ? you are betting into markets with a 100-200 limit? what kind of % of value are you seeing on those, isnt it hard to make any real money on those limits?

[tsty]

betting openers is for amateurs

especially in the lower limits lol

[Alfa1234]

did you say 100-200 dollars ? you are betting into markets with a 100-200 limit? what kind of % of value are you seeing on those, isnt it hard to make any real money on those limits?

Opening limits are often even lower on Pinnacle. Let me give you an example:

I just placed a bet on Turkish basketball, Fenerbahce VS Anadolu. I did this when the market opened. I bet 2 Anadolu +8.5 at 2.24. Limit was 86€. The line dropped to 2.08. I rebet it. Line dropped to 2.03. I stopped.

Line is now at 1.769.

I can't predict the future move, but to me this line had value at anything over 2.0. Considering it dropped a lot farther after I already placed my bets, I wasn't the only one thinking that. Should I have waited and hoped or should I have placed those small bets and grabbed what I could?

As you can see in my thread in players talk, I place anywhere between 10 and 20 bets a day on small to very small markets. Amount ranges from a few hundred to 500€+ depending on the edge and odd. Odd average is a little over 2.0. Edge is roughly 10% on those. Do the math.

[tsty]

using your own logic then you should just bet the other side now at higher limits

the only people who bet openers are people not confident in their own lines

[Alfa1234]

using your own logic then you should just bet the other side now at higher limits

the only people who bet openers are people not confident in their own lines

If my own model says the line should be 8.5 there is value in any odd above 2.0. Why would I not bet that if the opening line gives me that value? If I had waited, I would not have been able to get that value even though it were only small bets, so please elaborate.

By betting the other side now I am essentially paying the Pinnacle juice to insure my bet.
I fail to see what confidence has to do with it, if someone makes a line and the only way to get value out of that line is to bet an opener, why not bet it? I would bet the line as well if the limit was 10k 5mins before the game (not a limit bet though in that case) and the line had opened at +4.5 and later moved my way, but I won't be waiting around hoping for that to happen if I can get some bets in early. I just doesn't make sense to me to "not" bet value when you can on the faint hope you may be able to get on more later...

[Optional]

using your own logic then you should just bet the other side now at higher limits

the only people who bet openers are people not confident in their own lines

That's confusing.

Surely you need to be confident in your estimated odds to be able to hit openers fast.

As far as small sports not being good for openers or not moving so you can wait. The NASCAR forum would disagree with you. Best odds last minutes at most each week and almost never get back near that. And that's a small market.

[tsty]

That's confusing.

Surely you need to be confident in your estimated odds to be able to hit openers fast.

As far as small sports not being good for openers or not moving so you can wait. The NASCAR forum would disagree with you. Best odds last minutes at most each week and almost never get back near that. And that's a small market.

lol silly me I forgot that NASCAR was the epitome of an efficient market...

If you ever watch any small market move you will realise how much the odds move

Just the other day I saw a tennis match open at 2.5 move to 1.9 then close at 3.2

If you guys really think syndicates are camping opening lines then I got some news for you...

[tsty]

[QUOTE=Alfa1234;28153352]Opening limits are often even lower on Pinnacle. Let me give you an example:
I just placed a bet on Turkish basketball, Fenerbahce VS Anadolu. I did this when the market opened. I bet 2 Anadolu +8.5 at 2.24. Limit was 86€. The line dropped to 2.08. I rebet it. Line dropped to 2.03. I stopped.
Line is now at 1.769.
/QUOTE]

If my own model says the line should be 8.5 there is value in any odd above 2.0. Why would I not bet that if the opening line gives me that value? If I had waited, I would not have been able to get that value even though it were only small bets, so please elaborate

So the line is 8.5 meaning that both -8.5 and +8.5 are 50% to clear

You wrote that you bet them at 2.24 and the line is currently 1.769

Which means that the -8.5 line is over 2 which means you should bet

People always end up cucking themselves when they get into these discussions

[Alfa1234]

[QUOTE=tsty;28153428]

Opening limits are often even lower on Pinnacle. Let me give you an example:
I just placed a bet on Turkish basketball, Fenerbahce VS Anadolu. I did this when the market opened. I bet 2 Anadolu +8.5 at 2.24. Limit was 86€. The line dropped to 2.08. I rebet it. Line dropped to 2.03. I stopped.
Line is now at 1.769.
/QUOTE]



So the line is 8.5 meaning that both -8.5 and +8.5 are 50% to clear

You wrote that you bet them at 2.24 and the line is currently 1.769

Which means that the -8.5 line is over 2 which means you should bet

People always end up cucking themselves when they get into these discussions

Yes you are right, I should have bet that -8.5 and taken the value when it was over 2.0...I don't like doing that though because I end up paying 2x juice. You could discuss whether or not that is the right thing to do though.

Right now the 8.5 is at 1.97 and 1.847 respectively. Limits are up so I was right to take it early...the point was there is no way to justify not taking the bet if you are convinced the value is there at that time. It doesn't matter if the market is efficient or not in that case. If someone simply is a fan of a player in a small market and places 100€ on him, the line could go from 2.4 to 2.1 even though it's not a sharp bet at all...doesn't mean you shouldn't bet the opposite side if your model had that guy at 1.8 and the odd is now 1.85

I follow a lot of early lines and you are right, sometimes they are all over the place. Doesn't mean you should't bet if you know your model has value though.

I don't see why you are against betting early, you have not said why you think that's a bad idea.

[danshan11]

betting early is good only if your model is really good.
Early betting can get you into deeper trouble because lines move so much more from the openers
say you bet early take -120 and you were real wrong and it closes at +120 that is a lot of juice, now that does not happen as often or as big if you bet last minute.
I think it is very rare for people who win long term to bet last minute. Most "Pro" bettors I think bet as soon as limits go up. If you bet last minute you cannot beat the line enough to really win, IMHO

[Alfa1234]

betting early is good only if your model is really good.
Early betting can get you into deeper trouble because lines move so much more from the openers
say you bet early take -120 and you were real wrong and it closes at +120 that is a lot of juice, now that does not happen as often or as big if you bet last minute.
I think it is very rare for people who win long term to bet last minute. Most "Pro" bettors I think bet as soon as limits go up. If you bet last minute you cannot beat the line enough to really win, IMHO

Agree, although I don't agree about that "deeper trouble". If you have no idea what you are doing you could just as easily take -120 and see a line move to -250...long term you'll end up paying the juice regardless and you'll get "lucky" just as much as you'll be "unlucky".

[danshan11]

probably correct on that last part but there is possibility for larger movement the earlier you bet

[Deuces25]

IMO - Betting latest as possible works for me, in my experience the line always goes in my favor because im not usually betting with the public. ALSO - i like to get the latest injury report or line up change or weather condition as late as possible before placing the wager. THE ONLY time i will wager EARLY is if i wanted to Middle the bet later on.

[HeeeHAWWWW]

Best way to answer this is to get a lines database, and test.

General answer as others have said: lines are expected to move and wipe out your EV over time. But the speed of that can vary - for example, if it's the middle of the night. Sometimes it's worth waiting, especially if the limit increase is particularly large.

Also, if your models find value in a way that others can't, you have no problem to wait till late max limits. For example, Starlizard (Bloom's syndicate) are well known for playing at the last minute.

[danshan11]

IMO - Betting latest as possible works for me, in my experience the line always goes in my favor because im not usually betting with the public. ALSO - i like to get the latest injury report or line up change or weather condition as late as possible before placing the wager. THE ONLY time i will wager EARLY is if i wanted to Middle the bet later on.

you dont require the line movement in order to profit?