When do sharp players bet? Does it matter?

[AlgoLady]

the winning and losing of a few hundred games is unfortunately what most people use to determine a winner. That is super flawed and does not properly display the skill and or knowledge of a player

This

[danshan11]

Well from your logic this is a pointless thread because your telling me you need 100000's of games to determine a winner who in here is going to show you that they are a long term winner of 10000's bets no one is so pretty much anything anyone says you can just say yea but is it winning over 1000's upon 1000's of bets. So like I said this thread is really pointless from your logic cause if someone says they are a winner you will say yea but are you doing it over 100000's games if not then your not considered a winner.

we might not have the records but it can be very helpful to discuss the best way to try and get there, what makes that conversation useless?

[danshan11]

This

if I showed you this what would you say?

	W	L	P	Win %	CLV
Overall	75	49	2	60.48%	1.70%
Sides	30	25	2	54.55%	0.03%
Totals	45	24	0	65.22%	3.16%

does that prove I am a winner? of course not, that is only one season of WNBA not enough to determine anything

[danshan11]

or this does this say anything

League	Win %	W	L	P	CLV
MX	28.57%	2	5	0	0.51%
MLS	33.33%	3	6	0	0.06%
CFL	57.14%	8	6	1	0.95%
MLB	44.44%	44	55	5	0.93%

[danshan11]

these are all just plain and simple not enough records and the big issue is if someone gets on a hot streak people think that person knows something.

[danshan11]

you can look at my CLV tab on this sheet for last years nba

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1o0o4459UqpPCPK3_0t3UyChCX2ou7L4EnyQlqJUbNsk/edit?usp=sharing

again great season but in reality not enough data to prove anything to me or you!

[AlgoLady]

If someone shows you numbers through 200-400 games it's not luck trust me you don't need 10,000 games to determine if your sharp or not...And you can tell people till your blue in the face on what is a winning blue print they are still going to bet or do what they want 95% of people who bet don't have what it takes to become a winning bettor or someone who makes money long term let's just tell it how it is because it's more then just 1 thing you need to have great money management you need to not be a degan and bet 25 games a week + you need to be able to pick winners I don't care about if you don't beat the line that's a myth imo if I bet a game at +115 instead of +125 or bet a team at -115 instead of EVEN money that's not going to determine if im a winner you still need to be on the right side more then not.

[Alfa1234]

I think alfa does even though I cant decipher much from it because he bets womens 3rd string volleyball and whatever stuff.

In my defense, there's a bunch of big markets in there as well. You can find every game on oddsportal.

Update here:

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/players-talk/3491346-so-you-think-winning-long-term-impossible-p20.html

I now have a total of 32275 plays in my spreadsheet. Only started posting plays a few months ago.

[danshan11]

Alfa me and you are on the same team. I like making fun of your 3rd string womens g string football league bets! I know you know what it takes to win!

[danshan11]

If someone shows you numbers through 200-400 games it's not luck trust me you don't need 10,000 games to determine if your sharp or not...And you can tell people till your blue in the face on what is a winning blue print they are still going to bet or do what they want 95% of people who bet don't have what it takes to become a winning bettor or someone who makes money long term let's just tell it how it is because it's more then just 1 thing you need to have great money management you need to not be a degan and bet 25 games a week + you need to be able to pick winners I don't care about if you don't beat the line that's a myth imo if I bet a game at +115 instead of +125 or bet a team at -115 instead of EVEN money that's not going to determine if im a winner you still need to be on the right side more then not.

this whole statement is just flat out not true, that is what tons of people think and that is why they lose.

You have to beat the line, there is no proof to the contrary but there is proof beating the line is profitable if you can do it enough times to overcome variance.

400 bets is nothing, you cannot use 400 bets to determine anything except if they have beaten the line consistently

[Alfa1234]

this whole statement is just flat out not true, that is what tons of people think and that is why they lose.

You have to beat the line, there is no proof to the contrary but there is proof beating the line is profitable if you can do it enough times to overcome variance.

400 bets is nothing, you cannot use 400 bets to determine anything except if they have beaten the line consistently

I believe you are kinda correct. Show me 400 bets and I can probably tell if it's a long term winner or loser. Doesn't mean he's a winner in those 400 bets though.

[AlgoLady]

this whole statement is just flat out not true, that is what tons of people think and that is why they lose.

You have to beat the line, there is no proof to the contrary but there is proof beating the line is profitable if you can do it enough times to overcome variance.

400 bets is nothing, you cannot use 400 bets to determine anything except if they have beaten the line consistently

I disagree you pull joe bloat from down the street that knows nothing about betting and give him 400 coin flips I GURANTEE he don't hit more then 50%...Danshan this is what i'm saying you are telling people what works and what don't where is your winning plays???? Where's your posts? and your so big with this opening and closing line it don't mean nothing unless your betting -140 and up's every game you still need to be on the right side period. We will just agree to disagree because that's 100% false you need to beat the line every time to be a winner not true.

[danshan11]

you can see here these are my pending bets so far today since yesterday, I am adding more all day long as I finish capping games but here from this sample you can see the constant punishing of the line

[danshan11]

I disagree you pull joe bloat from down the street that knows nothing about betting and give him 400 coin flips I GURANTEE he don't hit more then 50%...Danshan this is what i'm saying you are telling people what works and what don't where is your winning plays???? Where's your posts? and your so big with this opening and closing line it don't mean nothing unless your betting -140 and up's every game you still need to be on the right side period. We will just agree to disagree because that's 100% false you need to beat the line every time to be a winner not true.

you need to beat the line >50% of the time above the juice to be a long term winner. You also need to have enough plays to overcome variance. I can beat the line but my problem is I cant beat it enough times per day to overcome variance. MY whole goal now is to get enough wagers a day to beat the line all the time and eventually 100 or more times a day to be a winner.

I full disclose I am not there and as good as I am against the line I dont have enough plays to consider myself a long term winner.

and if you flip a coin 400 times say 10 sets of 400 you will lose about 50% of the time
2 times lose bad
2 times barely lose
2 times 50-50
2 times win barely
2 times win big
400 is nothing!

[AlgoLady]

you can see here these are my pending bets so far today since yesterday, I am adding more all day long as I finish capping games but here from this sample you can see the constant punishing of the line

I can tell you right off the bat your FAR from a winning player long term there is no way your betting 8 games in 1 day and your going to be profitable long term 0% sorry.

[AlgoLady]

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/hockey-betting/3503152-women-can-sharp-well-p3.html#post28165083

Follow my thread for NHL and I bet you i'm in the green come the end of the year. Why? because I stick to what i'm good at which is horses and NHL I don't bet just to bet I pick my spots I rarely have days where I play more then 1 game yea I no I only have 9 plays thus far which means nothing but my style is more profitable then yours 100%. No chance you will ever catch me betting 8 games in 1 day that's one of the worst things you can do as a bettor.

[Alfa1234]

I disagree you pull joe bloat from down the street that knows nothing about betting and give him 400 coin flips I GURANTEE he don't hit more then 50%...Danshan this is what i'm saying you are telling people what works and what don't where is your winning plays???? Where's your posts? and your so big with this opening and closing line it don't mean nothing unless your betting -140 and up's every game you still need to be on the right side period. We will just agree to disagree because that's 100% false you need to beat the line every time to be a winner not true.

If you GUARANTEE he won't win 50% you are beating all laws of probability and variance as he actually has a 49.9% chance of hitting over 50%. Come on man. Give him a million flips and he still has 49.999999% of going over 500 000 wins.

Now, if you are talking about hitting over 55% and make a profit on juiced lines, the odds of that are off course far lower but still very likely to happen as he has a 90% chance of hitting between 160 and 240 wins. Considering he only needs 220 to make money he still has a 25% chance of making it happen.

[Alfa1234]

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...l#post28165083

Follow my thread for NHL and I bet you i'm in the green come the end of the year. Why? because I stick to what i'm good at which is horses and NHL I don't bet just to bet I pick my spots I rarely have days where I play more then 1 game yea I no I only have 9 plays thus far which means nothing but my style is more profitable then yours 100% no chance you will ever catch me betting 8 games in 1 day that's one of the worst things you can do as a bettor.

Whatever works for you, but I GUARANTEE you are better off playing 5000 games with 5% EV than playing 50 games with 20% +EV.

[AlgoLady]

If you GUARANTEE he won't win 50% you are beating all laws of probability and variance as he actually has a 49.9% chance of hitting over 50%. Come on man. Give him a million flips and he still has 49.999999% of going over 500 000 wins.

Now, if you are talking about hitting over 55% and make a profit on juiced lines, the odds of that are off course far lower but still very likely to happen as he has a 90% chance of hitting between 160 and 240 wins. Considering he only needs 220 to make money he still has a 25% chance of making it happen.

BINGO meaning 75% chance he won't hit 55%

[AlgoLady]

Whatever works for you, but I GUARANTEE you are better off playing 5000 games with 5% EV than playing 50 games with 20% +EV.

I don't believe that

[Alfa1234]

I can tell you right off the bat your FAR from a winning player long term there is no way your betting 8 games in 1 day and your going to be profitable long term 0% sorry.

Weird, because I'm posting roughly 10 picks per day, am at 559 documented picks now since September in that thread and up 84 units.

I guarantee you my spreadsheet looks exactly the same with the 32275 documented bets I've made over the years and the ROI is also very good.

You have a different style, but you can absolutely be profitable making 10+ bets every day.

[Alfa1234]

BINGO meaning 75% chance he won't hit 55%

Yes, and 25% he does make money. You GUARANTEED he wouldn't even hit 50%. Read about "survivorship bias".

[danshan11]

Algo I do agree with you that 99.9% of what I say is not "fact" its just my opinion and I think people dont like what i say because it kinda goes against how most people play! I do try and listen to what others say, I have learned a lot when I first came on to the betting world. I thought I could tell if they Patriots could cover, oh how dumb was I! I thought I somehow magically had this formula that was better than the entire betting consensus and the expert models the books and pros use! What an idiot I was!

[Alfa1234]

I don't believe that

Nothing to believe about it, it's very simple mathematics.

[AlgoLady]

Weird, because I'm posting roughly 10 picks per day, am at 559 documented picks now since September in that thread and up 84 units.

I guarantee you my spreadsheet looks exactly the same with the 32275 documented bets I've made over the years and the ROI is also very good.

You have a different style, but you can absolutely be profitable making 10+ bets every day.

Your thread is so jumbled how can anyone tell what your up and what your not? No chance your picking 10+ games a day and up and doing it for years and years NO CHANCE

[Alfa1234]

Your thread is so jumbled how can anyone tell what your up and what your not? No chance your picking 10+ games a day and up and doing it for years and years NO CHANCE

There's an update every now and then with the picks nicely placed in a spreadsheet...don't know how much more clear it can get. And "no chance"...based upon what? Your informed opinion about what I do?? HAH. No need to believe me buddy, just trying to broaden your horizon. There's a lot of ways to make money and if your way works for you, that's great but don't dismiss other methods out of hand simply because you, for some reason, don't think they are possible.

[AlgoLady]

Algo I do agree with you that 99.9% of what I say is not "fact" its just my opinion and I think people dont like what i say because it kinda goes against how most people play! I do try and listen to what others say, I have learned a lot when I first came on to the betting world. I thought I could tell if they Patriots could cover, oh how dumb was I! I thought I somehow magically had this formula that was better than the entire betting consensus and the expert models the books and pros use! What an idiot I was!

I sure hope you base plays off what people say

[AlgoLady]

There's an update every now and then with the picks nicely placed in a spreadsheet...don't know how much more clear it can get. And "no chance"...based upon what? Your informed opinion about what I do?? HAH. No need to believe me buddy, just trying to broaden your horizon. There's a lot of ways to make money and if your way works for you, that's great but don't dismiss other methods out of hand simply because you, for some reason, don't think they are possible.

Every now and then LOL nobody's keeping track of that jumbled mess do daily updates or it means nothing anybody can throw numbers in their when everything is so jumbled cause nobody is keeping track of that garbage I can tell you without a shadow of a doubt there is a 0% chance you will be profitable betting 10+ games a day for years and years 0%.

[Alfa1234]

Every now and then LOL nobody's keeping track of that jumbled mess do daily updates or it means nothing anybody can throw numbers in their when everything is so jumbled cause nobody is keeping track of that garbage I can tell you without a shadow of a doubt there is a 0% chance you will be profitable betting 10+ games a day for years and years 0%.

You are just trolling without even looking at anything with an unbiased mind. It's like talking with a person that says 'the earth is flat', no way to change his mind despite clear evidence so I'm going to stop responding to it now.

[danshan11]

I sure hope you base plays off what people say

I dont know what you mean

[danshan11]

You are just trolling without even looking at anything with an unbiased mind. It's like talking with a person that says 'the earth is flat', no way to change his mind despite clear evidence so I'm going to stop responding to it now.

dont be a quitter, I like to discuss this stuff and so do you! Everyone has a different way to skin the cat!

[AlgoLady]

You are just trolling without even looking at anything with an unbiased mind. It's like talking with a person that says 'the earth is flat', no way to change his mind despite clear evidence so I'm going to stop responding to it now.

I would to because we might find out the mess of a thread and fake numbers your bloating out is full of shit smart move.

[danshan11]

I can tell you right off the bat your FAR from a winning player long term there is no way your betting 8 games in 1 day and your going to be profitable long term 0% sorry.

if you look at the current line of these and the closing lines compared to what i pay and you will quickly see I am on the right side of most of these bets!

[Alfa1234]

I would to because we might find out the mess of a thread and fake numbers your bloating out is full of shit smart move.

Picks are posted, I dare you to find errors and bloated numbers. I DARE YOU. Not my fault if you are not smart enough to be able to make sense out of the picks or are too lazy to back up your claim.

[AlgoLady]

dont be a quitter, I like to discuss this stuff and so do you! Everyone has a different way to skin the cat!

Your right everyone does have a different way to skin a cat but everyone that is a winner has 3 main things in common good with money management, good with not tilting, and last but not least being able to pick winners.