NFL 2009 season wins Video with spreadsheet

[Justin7]

here. Video to follow.

[Justin7]

[durito]

Nice video.

What about time value of money?

I used to have a local where I could bet these on credit, but no more. During football I'd prefer to have as close to possible of 100% of my bankroll available to bet every week.

[Justin7]

Credit is best.

The EV is so ridiculous on these season wins bets, I don't mind keeping my money tied up for 3-4 months.

[CaneDawg]

good info

[nosniboR11]

Credit is best.

The EV is so ridiculous on these season wins bets, I don't mind keeping my money tied up for 3-4 months.

[FreeFall]

Credit is best.

The EV is so ridiculous on these season wins bets, I don't mind keeping my money tied up for 3-4 months.

Could you explain the expected value on one of these bets?

[Justin7]

Could you explain the expected value on one of these bets?

If you look at the play list, I thought all of these were at least a full game off. Each half-game is worth about 50 cents (or less, the further you get from the "8").

It's high enough that I would consider pulling money out of stocks if I could get more than nickels on these.

[FreeFall]

Where did you get these bets in? matchbook wont have there lines up till later. 5Dimes only has division winners.

PS Thank a lot your advice and thoughts are always amazing and I appreciate it!

[Justin7]

Greek and Jazz have them up. There are probably others, you just have to look around.

[j0hnnyv]

great information as usual Justin, thanks alot......

[Dark Horse]

Good video.

Thanks for sharing the spreadsheet, but I can't help thinking that it is somewhat oversimplified. You didn't factor in playoffs? Yet a team like Arizona, which is shown as a .500 team, was a completely different team in the postseason. Same question about key or season defining injuries. Pats all season without Brady. Chargers without Merriman. I don't understand that you would revert to the mean in certain areas, but not mark down how unrepresentative the season numbers for a team's PF and PA may have been. Can there be any doubt that the Patriots would have scored more points with Brady, and that the Chargers would have allowed fewer points with Merriman? Or a team like Denver that may have to start from scratch. Last season's totals may not mean very much.

My underlying question relates to the fact that the picture is integrated; what happens to one team affects the others. If a projection is off by 2 wins, then those wins have to go somewhere else. If these were horses, then the percentages would have to add up to 100%. (With total number of wins for all teams being 100%). In fact, these type of futures are very comparable to horse racing. Your spread sheet shows past times, and adjusts for track condition and wind. But not if a horse was bumped, injured, had a bad start, almost won a Triple Crown, etc.

I guess I can answer my own question. lol You couldn't win with this approach in horse betting, but you can (and have) in NFL futures, because the lines are really off. Like taking candy from a baby?

[Pancho sanza]

I had the same thought about the Pats and Brady.

[Justin7]

Good points, Dark Horse. The video was already a bit long, and addressing playoff performance might have doubled the length. You can use playoff games, but you have to "normalize" them for the stronger opposition. Scoring 20 points in a game is below average, unless you're playing Pittsburgh's defense that allowed only 13 points a game.

[RickySteve]

Good points, Dark Horse. The video was already a bit long, and addressing playoff performance might have doubled the length. You can use playoff games, but you have to "normalize" them for the stronger opposition. Scoring 20 points in a game is below average, unless you're playing Pittsburgh's defense that allowed only 13 points a game.

SOS should really be accounted for even in the regular season data. Not enough trials like the other pro sports to call it a wash.

[Justin7]

SOS should really be accounted for even in the regular season data. Not enough trials like the other pro sports to call it a wash.

The more time you put into this, the better you do. I didn't want to spend much more than an hour on this project - with limits at nickels anyway.

[KingJIM]

Are you adding this to your spreadsheet? How do you think your doing with your baseball futures? How many posts does a rookie need to use his own spreadsheet here? Thanks for your time.

[Justin7]

Are you adding this to your spreadsheet? How do you think your doing with your baseball futures? How many posts does a rookie need to use his own spreadsheet here? Thanks for your time.

I hadn't thought about my spreadsheet I will add them.

Use your spreadsheet. It doesn't matter how many posts you have. If people start paying more attention, you can explain as people ask questions (or get ridiculed as people disagree with your omission of SOS adjustments!)

[brock]

WTF was that. Justin7 I have played two of your MLB plays and I am 2-0
I think I will try NE and TB. Thanks.

[FreeFall]

I know this is off topic, but Justin7 would you say the %s accuscore puts out for baseball games are good to follow. Or the ingame %'s that occur. I've been playing with them on matchbook and betting better odds than the % posted at ESPN and wondered if this is -eV.

I'm considering trying this with ingame bets, but would like to know the validity of those %s or your opinon on them. An example would've been when Det with 0-3 to CHC today. I had DET from the start and would've taken them when they were down not knowing if they'd come back or not, but b/c I coudl get them at even better odds than before.

[Justin7]

Sorry FreeFall, I haven't studied Accuscore's history. Why don't you do a study? Compare how Accuscore's predictions do versus closing lines?

[sweetjones55]

I like that Baltimore over but definitely not feeling that NE under. They have gotten so much better this offseason.

[xyz]

That Baltimore over is looking good. The odds at the greek is now at over 8.5 -180 and under 8.5 +160. Got to feel good when the markets agree with your pick.

[RickySteve]

(or get ridiculed as people disagree with your omission of SOS adjustments!)

I hope you're kidding. I was offering a constructive suggestion, hardly ridiculing.

[Justin7]

I hope you're kidding. I was offering a constructive suggestion, hardly ridiculing.

I'm kidding

[Ominous]

I used your spreadsheet and found these odds and projected values at some various sportsbooks. Which do you think are strong enough to play Justin7?


LINE odds value

TB O6.5   2   1,68       
NEP U11,5   2   1,66
Cincin U6.5   2   1,6
WASU8,5   1,71   1,54       
Rams U5,5   2,15   1,52 
NYJ O7   1,72   1,42 
ND U10   2,05   1,41       
Seattle U7,5   2,1   1,41 
Baltimore O8.5   -135   1,34       
Cle U6.5   1,85   1,34 
JAX U8   2,02   1,34       
Cle U7   -160   1,31 
Atlanta O8.5   2   1,3 
Dal U9   2,25   1,29       
Atlanta O8   1,72   1,28 
Chi bears U8.5   2,25   1,26       
DEN O7   2,12   1,26
MIAO7   2   1,24       
SD U9,5   2,25   1,24
TENO9   1,77   1,24 
SF O7   1,72   1,23       
Arizona U8,5   2   1,22
KC U6   1,95   1,21 
Buffalo O7.5   -130   1,16

[LT Profits]

I think Seattle wins at least 9 games this year. Justin's spreadsheet does not consider injuries, and you could basically toss Seattle's whole season last year because seemingly the whole team was on IR.

[andywend]

Justin, my biggest bet so far this year in the NFL was 3 max $500 bets on the following:

Team to win the AFC Central WITHOUT the Pittsburgh Steelers:

I bet the Ravens at +125 ($500 to win $625), +105 ($500 to win $525) and -105 ($525 to win $500).

I thought getting better than even money on the Ravens finishing in front of the Bengals and Browns offered tremendous value.

Since you recommended betting over on the Ravens and under on both the Bengals and the Browns, one would assume you would like the wager above.

If you're interested, the bet is being offered at the Greek.

[Bluehorseshoe]

I think Seattle wins at least 9 games this year. Justin's spreadsheet does not consider injuries, and you could basically toss Seattle's whole season last year because seemingly the whole team was on IR.

I agree with this point also. Seattle at one point was pulling people out of the stands and putting them at WR. It's why they overspent for T.J. Houshmandzadeh.

[Dark Horse]

I think Seattle wins at least 9 games this year. Justin's spreadsheet does not consider injuries, and you could basically toss Seattle's whole season last year because seemingly the whole team was on IR.

Maybe we can have a broader discussion about this. Several months to go. Could be a good warm-up for the season.

We have 32 teams that play 16 regular season games. That's a total of 256 wins to be divided among them. So no matter how we break things down, in the end the total number of wins for all teams combined has to be exactly 256.0.

Plenty of angles to consider.

I'll go back a few more years to see how this holds up: Of the nine 2007 NFL teams that improved their records by four or more wins from the prior season, only one made it to the playoffs in the 2008 season! And that team, the defending champ NY Giants, was eliminated in the first round.

[ManOfValue]

Interesting , good work putting it together..

[Fishhead]

TIP---Seldom, if ever, bet the OVER on these wagers.





Justin--find your value plays where it states to bet the UNDER and just go with those..........I think you will profit 4 out of every 5 years.

[Justin7]

TIP---Seldom, if ever, bet the OVER on these wagers.





Justin--find your value plays where it states to bet the UNDER and just go with those..........I think you will profit 4 out of every 5 years.

5+ years ago, every single game was inflated 0.5 - 1.0 games. If you added up all the estimated season wins, it went WAY over an average of 8 per team.

Enter the wise guys. They punished books for this. Books actually LOST money on these groups of futures as a whole. Lines are still off, but they are not all systematically over.

[Corey]

I watched this video, and understand part of it, which is pretty good considering my newbie-ness. Are the picks Justin made still good in light of the fact that NFL Preseason is over? I see the lines have moved since then on Matchbook and Player's Only (I know that book sucks, I just had an account from when I used to whore blackjack bonuses there).

For example, Justin picks Baltimore Over 8.5 -150, but Matchbook has it at -163, which is a worse price (whether it is worse enough to make it -EV I don't know). Justin picks Cincinnati Under 6.5 -110, but Matchbook has it at +150. So that would be a way better situation.

Also, why do you not wait until preseason is over to make this future bet? Wouldn't you have more information to base the decision on?

[spongerat]

i believe the triangle method is just a solid starting point