NFL 2009 season wins Video with spreadsheet

[Justin7]

Also, why do you not wait until preseason is over to make this future bet? Wouldn't you have more information to base the decision on?

There is a tradeoff on any wager between when you place it, and how much information you have. There is a ton more information available now, and you can set a much better line.

If you bet very early, it's not just you that has a tougher time - it's the book as well. The earlier you bet though, the fewer opinions have shaped the line. If you bet a future 5 minutes before the first game, the market is going to be very efficient (and tough to beat).

could you do better now (or even later?) Maybe. It's more a function of your analysis than timing, but you can use timing based on what analysis you want to use. If you're laze like me and want to do it quickly, using pythag early is better than later.

[TobiasFunke]

Thanks for the video and spreadsheet Justin, very helpful and informative!

[Corey]

There is a tradeoff on any wager between when you place it, and how much information you have. There is a ton more information available now, and you can set a much better line.

If you bet very early, it's not just you that has a tougher time - it's the book as well. The earlier you bet though, the fewer opinions have shaped the line. If you bet a future 5 minutes before the first game, the market is going to be very efficient (and tough to beat).

could you do better now (or even later?) Maybe. It's more a function of your analysis than timing, but you can use timing based on what analysis you want to use. If you're laze like me and want to do it quickly, using pythag early is better than later.

OK. Is there a thread or video that deals specifically with the pythagorean theorem and how it applies to sports?

I know it from Geometry, but found it strange and surprising that it would have a sports application.

EDIT: One thing about your videos Justin - It is very hard to read the equations, and the spreadsheet is barely readable at all (in the video, not in here LOL). The video compression makes it almost impossible to read them. Perhaps you should use a bigger font? Other than that, I totally respect and admire your videos!

[dj80d]

video was good and thanks for the spreedsheat

[Justin7]

Thanks Corey. I'm a sports bettor, not a movie maker... but I'll try to do it better.

[Vincepcion]

v good video, made me put some money on Balt Over but i dont know about the TB over, their sched is super tough. BOL to ya