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Is the puckline in hockey and the runline in baseball always a sucker bet?
Would like to see some actual math and reason behind this instead of just personal opinions.
If I'm not mistaken, any time you see a wager that is paying better than what you have deduced the actual likelihood of that event happening to be, it is a +EV bet, assuming your deduction is correct.
Isn't this true of runlines and pucklines as well?
Nothing can possibly always be a sucker bet. It has to depend on the price one gets.
What if baseball team A is -144 on the ML and the RL is +200? +250? +300?
At some point it becomes a good bet. As always, it depends on the price you get.
You need to calculate the win probabilities of a side by > 1 run, given the ML and total.Originally Posted by VegasDave
From there you can price the run lines/puck lines to see if theres value.
How would you go about doing that?
Can see this working a lot better in baseball as over-unders vary in the 7 to 10 range. Hockey though is almost always 5.5, even though one side is usually more expensive than the other.
You need a large database of games, assuming your'e going to analyze actual game results as opposed to modelling them.
From there, organize the data by moneyline/total, and calculate win % by greater than 1 at each level, ie assume -250 home favs with a total of 7.5 win by > 1 run 51.6 % if the time, a fairly priced runline(assuming a 10 cent line) would be:
Road +1.5 +102
Home -1.5 -112
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