Is the puckline in hockey and the runline in baseball always a sucker bet?

**smitch124** · 03-29-09, 01:00 PM

Nothing can possibly always be a sucker bet. It has to depend on the price one gets.

What if baseball team A is -144 on the ML and the RL is +200? +250? +300?

At some point it becomes a good bet. As always, it depends on the price you get.

**Pancho sanza** · 03-29-09, 01:53 PM

Originally posted by VegasDave

Would like to see some actual math and reason behind this instead of just personal opinions.

If I'm not mistaken, any time you see a wager that is paying better than what you have deduced the actual likelihood of that event happening to be, it is a +EV bet, assuming your deduction is correct.

Isn't this true of runlines and pucklines as well?

You need to calculate the win probabilities of a side by > 1 run, given the ML and total.

From there you can price the run lines/puck lines to see if theres value.

**VegasDave** · 03-29-09, 01:55 PM

Originally posted by Pancho sanza

You need to calculate the win probabilities of a side by > 1 run, given the ML and total.

From there you can price the run lines/puck lines to see if theres value.

How would you go about doing that?

Can see this working a lot better in baseball as over-unders vary in the 7 to 10 range. Hockey though is almost always 5.5, even though one side is usually more expensive than the other.

**Pancho sanza** · 03-29-09, 02:08 PM

Originally posted by VegasDave

How would you go about doing that?

Can see this working a lot better in baseball as over-unders vary in the 7 to 10 range. Hockey though is almost always 5.5, even though one side is usually more expensive than the other.

You need a large database of games, assuming your'e going to analyze actual game results as opposed to modelling them.

From there, organize the data by moneyline/total, and calculate win % by greater than 1 at each level, ie assume -250 home favs with a total of 7.5 win by > 1 run 51.6 % if the time, a fairly priced runline(assuming a 10 cent line) would be:

Road +1.5 +102
Home -1.5 -112