So where are the free agents going this year,?
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Very excited to see what the dh will do to the NL. Tired of watching pitchers attempt to bat.Comment -
Today is the last day for teams to issue qualifying offers to eligible free agents. Teams must make their decisions by 4pm CT, but the identities of some QO free agents have already been reported or even officially announced by their respective clubs. We’ll update this list throughout the day, but here are the players who already know will be getting the one-year, $18.4MM deal…
- Nick Castellanos, Reds (link)
- Michael Conforto, Mets (link)
- Robbie Ray, Blue Jays (link)
- Corey Seager, Dodgers (link)
- Marcus Semien, Blue Jays (link)
- Trevor Story, Rockies (link)
- Noah Syndergaard, Mets (link)
These players now have until November 17 to decide whether or not to accept the offer. If they accept, they’ll receive $18.4MM next season, and can’t be traded until June 15, 2022. They also won’t be eligible to receive a qualifying offer in any future trips to free agency (players are also ineligible for the qualifying offer if they haven’t spent at least one full season with their current team). Since the qualifying offer system was introduced in the 2012-13 offseason, 10 of the 96 players to receive a QO have taken the deal.
If a player rejects the qualifying offer, draft pick compensation is now attached to their market, unless they re-sign with their former team. Teams who sign a QO free agent will have to surrender at least one draft pick, and potentially some international bonus pool money depending on their status as revenue-sharing recipients or whether or not they exceeded the luxury tax threshold. (Here is the list of what every team would have to give up to sign a QO free agent.)
If a QO free agent signs elsewhere, that player’s former team receives a compensatory draft pick based on this criteria….
- A draft pick after Competitive Balance Round B will be awarded if the team losing the free agent did not receive revenue sharing or if the free agent in question signed a contract worth less than $50MM in guaranteed money.
- A draft pick after Round 1 will be awarded if the team losing the free agent received revenue sharing and the free agent in question signed for more than $50MM.
- A draft pick after Round 4 will be awarded if the team losing the free agent paid luxury tax penalties in the preceding season.
As always, several factors are weighed by both teams and players about whether or not to issue or accept qualifying offers. This winter provides yet another wrinkle — this could be the final year of the current qualifying offer system due to the expiration of the current Collective Bargaining Agreement on December 1. It is widely expected that the owners could lock out the players if a new deal isn’t reached by that date. In the event of a lockout, MLB would institute a roster freeze on all transactional business involving Major League players, thus bringing the free agent market to a halt.
With this deadline looming, it is possible we could see some QO recipients (those less certain of landing big multi-year contracts) choose to accept the one-year deal in order to guarantee themselves some financial and contractual security prior to a possible lockout. By that same token, this could make teams warier about extending the qualifying offer to certain players due to a larger suspicion that they would accept…or perhaps a player’s willingness to accept could make a team more inclined to issue a QO to a so-called borderline case.Comment -
This is one rule change I do agree is probably a welcome change even though for the longest time I've been a "baseball purist" and thought the DH should be done away with. Now I believe if you're going to have it in one league then it should be universal to both leagues. A lot of guys will have prolonged careers because of the universal DH and I think that's a good thing.Comment -
Joe Kelly is now a free agent. Astros pick him up???Comment -
The Jays better re-sign Semein and Ray and sign a few others this offseason, if not they will be terrible.Comment -
I hear you Peavy, but just ugly watching pitchers bat, especially with how good pitchers are these days.Comment -
Today was the last day for teams to issue qualifying offers to eligible free agents, as teams had to make their decisions by 4pm CT. With the deadline now behind us, here are the players who were issued the one-year, $18.4MM offers…
- Brandon Belt, Giants (link)
- Nick Castellanos, Reds (link)
- Michael Conforto, Mets (link)
- Carlos Correa, Astros (link)
- Freddie Freeman, Braves (link)
- Raisel Iglesias, Angels (link)
- Robbie Ray, Blue Jays (link)
- Eduardo Rodriguez, Red Sox (link)
- Corey Seager, Dodgers (link)
- Marcus Semien, Blue Jays (link)
- Trevor Story, Rockies (link)
- Noah Syndergaard, Mets (link)
- Chris Taylor, Dodgers (link)
- Justin Verlander, Astros (link)
This is the highest number of qualifying offers issued since the 2015-16 offseason, when a record 20 players received the QOs. Only six players received qualifying offers last winter, which was the lowest ever issued in an offseason, yet not really surprising given the pandemic’s impact on the 2020 season and league revenues.
These 14 players now have until November 17 to decide whether or not to accept the offer. If they accept, they’ll receive $18.4MM next season, and can’t be traded until June 15, 2022. They also won’t be eligible to receive a qualifying offer in any future trips to free agency (players are also ineligible for the qualifying offer if they haven’t spent at least one full season with their current team). Since the qualifying offer system was introduced in the 2012-13 offseason, 10 of the 96 players to receive a QO have taken the deal.
If a player rejects the qualifying offer, draft pick compensation is now attached to their market, unless they re-sign with their former team. Teams who sign a QO free agent will have to surrender at least one draft pick, and potentially some international bonus pool money depending on their status as revenue-sharing recipients or whether or not they exceeded the luxury tax threshold. (Here is the list of what every team would have to give up to sign a QO free agent.)
If a QO free agent signs elsewhere, that player’s former team receives a compensatory draft pick based on this criteria….
- A draft pick after Competitive Balance Round B will be awarded if the team losing the free agent did not receive revenue sharing or if the free agent in question signed a contract worth less than $50MM in guaranteed money.
- A draft pick after Round 1 will be awarded if the team losing the free agent received revenue sharing and the free agent in question signed for more than $50MM.
- A draft pick after Round 4 will be awarded if the team losing the free agent paid luxury tax penalties in the preceding season.
As always, several factors are weighed by both teams and players about whether or not to issue or accept qualifying offers. This winter provides yet another wrinkle — this could be the final year of the current qualifying offer system due to the expiration of the current Collective Bargaining Agreement on December 1. It is widely expected that the owners could lock out the players if a new deal isn’t reached by that date. In the event of a lockout, MLB would institute a roster freeze on all transactional business involving Major League players, thus bringing the free agent market to a halt.
With this deadline looming, it is possible we could see some QO recipients (those less certain of landing big multi-year contracts) choose to accept the one-year deal in order to guarantee themselves some financial and contractual security prior to a possible lockout. By that same token, this could make teams warier about extending the qualifying offer to certain players due to a larger suspicion that they would accept…or perhaps a player’s willingness to accept could make a team more inclined to issue a QO to a so-called borderline case.Comment -
Nice to see the Giants at least try to retain Brandon Belt for another year after he had a big year in 2021. It sucks that he got hurt right before the playoffs started because that was a huge blow to the Giants offense and it showed up in the playoffs.Comment -
Red Sox again.
They let Schwarber try the market, signing Xander is a must, they need one more SP and RP and one more power bat.
Xander's financial team will probably wait on what Correa will get in free agency then negotiate with Bostonn.
Red Sox really have to spend on a SP though, Sale is a giant crap shoot going forward.Comment -
Joc Pederson a free agent.
I think Carlos Correa will end up with the YankeesComment -
Patrick Wisdom not a rookie of the year candidate? You gotta be fisting me.Comment -
Sal Perez not a Gold Glove winning catcher.
You gotta be fisting me.Comment -
1. Carlos Correa. Ten years, $320MM.
Tim Dierkes: Tigers / Steve Adams: Phillies / Anthony Franco: Tigers
In this winter’s star-studded class of free agent shortstops, we consider Correa the best. The Astros drafted Correa first overall out of Puerto Rico Baseball Academy back in 2012, and he won the 2015 AL Rookie of the Year award despite debuting in June. The 2016 season was a continuation of that success, and Correa seemed unstoppable.
However, in the three seasons that followed, Correa averaged only 98 games played per year due to a torn ligament in his thumb, multiple back injuries, and a cracked rib. Correa was able to avoid the IL during the shortened 2020 season, yet posted just a 96 wRC+ at the plate. At that point, Correa had played more than 110 games in a season only once, in 2016.
With plenty to prove in 2021, Correa delivered. He played in 148 games, posting a 134 wRC+ at the plate. Remarkably, Correa and Corey Seager have each played exactly 281 games with 1,182 plate appearances since 2019. Correa’s 129 wRC+ ranks fifth among shortstops during that period, not far behind Seager, Trea Turner, and Xander Bogaerts (Fernando Tatis Jr. remains in a class by himself).
Correa’s shortstop defense sets him apart from his offensive peers. Since 2018, Correa’s outs above average mark is on par with Andrelton Simmons, tied for third in the game among shortstops. Francisco Lindor has better defensive numbers but has never hit the way Correa does. It stands to reason that Lindor’s ten-year, $341MM extension with the Mets signed in April 2021 will be a benchmark for Correa. And keep in mind that while Lindor and Correa’s contracts both begin with the 2022 season, Correa is more than ten months younger. Correa should be able to remain at shortstop for the majority of his contract, which is not necessarily true of others on the market.
Correa’s postseason performance further bolsters his resume. He’s had all kinds of walk-off moments in his 79 career postseason games, with a batting line of .272/.344/.505 and 18 home runs in 334 plate appearances.
Correa has mostly quieted questions about his ability to stay healthy, having played in more than 97% of regular season games since 2020. That leaves one primary concern about our top free agent: his involvement in the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal. Correa benefited from the team’s trash can scheme in at least 2017 and ’18, and possibly in 2019. While Correa has spoken about feeling remorse, there has also been defiance in his comments after the scandal broke. Perhaps that’s why the sign-stealing scandal might not roll off Correa’s back in quite the same way it seems to have with George Springer, who signed the largest contract of the previous offseason.
The boos may follow Correa on the road for his entire career, and he showed this year that doesn’t faze him. But with several good alternatives on the market, certain big market teams — namely the Dodgers and Yankees — might not be able to stomach a long-term marriage with Correa. The Dodgers have a potential in-house replacement for Seager anyway in Trea Turner. The Yankees figure to at least be involved in Correa’s market, given their stated desire to improve at shortstop. The Tigers, Phillies, Rangers, Angels, Mariners, and Cardinals are other potential suitors. A reunion with the Astros is still possible as well, though the club never got past $125MM in their spring training extension offers.
2. Corey Seager. Ten years, $305MM.
TD: Yankees / SA: Yankees / AF: Yankees
Seager, 28 in April, is one of the best-hitting shortstops in baseball. Since 2020, only Fernando Tatis Jr. has outhit him. He’s difficult to strike out, posted a career-best walk rate this year and since 2020 ranks third among all shortstops (min. 200 PAs) with a .239 ISO (slugging minus batting average). Though the left-handed-hitting Seager has never topped 26 home runs in a season, he has 31 bombs in 147 games since ’20. His key Statcast markers were all in the 80th percentile or better.
Seager didn’t set the world on fire in his 53 postseason plate appearances this year for the Dodgers, but he boasts trophies for NLCS and World Series MVP in 2020 and has ample October experience. The former No. 18 overall draft pick (2012) won the NL Rookie of the Year and finished third in the MVP voting back in 2016. A two-time All-Star, Seager also received MVP votes in the 2017 and ’20 seasons. Seager’s defense generally falls into acceptable range, but there’s an expectation he’ll move off shortstop at some point in the middle of his contract. At 6’4″, Seager, Correa, and Cal Ripken Jr. are the tallest regular shortstops in Major League history.
Major injuries have befallen Seager three times in his MLB career. He played in only 26 regular season games in 2018 due to Tommy John and hip surgery. This year in May, Seager was struck by a Ross Detwiler pitch that fractured his right hand, limiting him to 95 regular season games. Seager raked upon his return, with a 169 wRC+ in 240 plate appearances. He did, however, find himself with a new double play partner in Trea Turner. Turner, under team control through 2022, was in his fifth year starring as the Nationals’ shortstop and moved to second base for the Dodgers only in deference to Seager.
After the easy call to make Seager a qualifying offer, it stands to reason that the Dodgers will make at least some attempt to retain their longtime shortstop. But with Turner in tow, they hardly need to act out of desperation, opening the door for teams like the Yankees, Tigers, Phillies, Astros, Angels, Rangers, and Cardinals to make a play.
3. Freddie Freeman. Six years, $180MM.
TD: Braves / SA: Braves / AF: Red Sox
Freeman, 32, has been one of the best hitters in baseball dating all the way back to 2013. His lowest single-season wRC+ mark during those nine seasons is 132, and he surged up to 186 in the shortened 2020 season to win the NL MVP. Freeman has gotten MVP votes in five additional seasons and is a five-time All-Star. Having signed an extension back in 2014, Freeman has been a Braves fixture for more than 11 seasons.
With such a beloved and consistently excellent player, it’s difficult to picture Freeman in another uniform. However, despite the Braves’ attempts to lock him up, Freeman has reached the open market. The obvious comparable is Paul Goldschmidt’s five-year, $130MM extension from spring 2019, but it’s unknown where each side stands relative to that marker. It’s also worth noting that even with the Braves’ championship, signing Freeman at $30MM+ per year will leave Liberty Media with limited financial flexibility to improve the team unless they raise payroll to new heights or shed existing commitments. If the Braves somehow allow Freeman to leave, the Yankees, Red Sox, Padres, Giants, Mariners, Mets, and Dodgers could be in play, but it’s tough to let a legacy player like this walk away on the heels of a World Series win.
4. Kris Bryant. Six years, $160MM.
TD: Mariners / SA: Mariners / AF: Mets
The Cubs selected Bryant second overall in the 2013 draft out of the University of San Diego. The club held off on starting the clock for his 2015 Rookie of the Year season just enough to secure control of his 2021 season, which led to a grievance that Bryant ultimately lost. Bryant seemingly peaked early, ranking third among all position players in wins above replacement from 2015-17, a period that included his 2016 MVP award and the Cubs’ World Series championship. Two of Bryant’s seasons have been marred by injury: a shoulder injury that limited him to 102 games in 2018, and an assortment of minor injuries that resulted in him playing 34 of 60 games in 2020.
That brief ’20 season was the only one in which Bryant posted a subpar batting line. While he bounced back this year with a 123 wRC+, that still fell short of anything he did from 2015-19. He was never a standout defensive third baseman, which prompted the rebranding of Bryant into a jack-of-all-trades defender. He logged 55 games at third base, 48 in left field, 39 in right field, 19 in center field, and 12 at first base this year for the Cubs and Giants. As Bryant approaches his 30th birthday, he seems to have settled in as a quality hitter with defensive versatility, rather than the Hall of Fame-track superstar he was when he burst onto the scene.
Bryant once seemed a lock for well over $200MM, but we don’t see that happening now that he’s actually reached free agency. He is aided by being ineligible for a qualifying offer. The Giants will surely keep an eye on his market, but president of baseball ops Farhan Zaidi has plainly stated that the rotation is his top priority. And, after the season, Zaidi also characterized the acquisition of Bryant like a move that was unique to the 2021 season:
“For us, the move at the deadline was really about pushing chips in with this team, which we thought was a really special team and had a chance to do some special things and did. But we recognize that he’s a superstar talent and it’s going to be a really competitive market for his services. I’m sure we’ll have conversations there, but he’s going to have a long line of suitors, so we’ll just have to see how that develops.”
The Giants can’t be firmly ruled out, but the Mariners, Rangers, Mets, Blue Jays, Phillies, and Padres could also be suitors.
5. Kevin Gausman. Six years, $138MM.
TD: Giants / SA: Giants / AF: Giants
Gausman began his career with a solid run for the Orioles after being selected fourth overall in 2012 out of Louisiana State. He was dealt to Atlanta at the 2018 trade deadline as the O’s kicked off their still-ongoing rebuild. After struggling through 16 starts in 2019, the Braves let Gausman go to the Reds as a waiver claim. Cincinnati used him as a reliever to finish the season. It seems that neither the Braves nor the Reds felt that Gausman’s abilities justified an arbitration salary north of $10MM, and the Reds non-tendered him.
That’s where the Giants jumped in with a $9MM free agent contract. Under the Giants’ tutelage, Gausman was superb in the abbreviated 2020 season, enough so that the club felt justified in making an $18.9MM qualifying offer. Rather than hit the free agent market with that burden, Gausman accepted the offer. A two- or three-year deal might have been on the table had he rejected and hit the market, but the decision to bet on himself by accepting that QO now looks prescient.
Gausman went out in 2021 and proved his 2020 breakout was no fluke, making his first All-Star team. The righty ramped up the use of his splitter this year, to the point where he threw that or his fastball nearly 90% of the time. Overall for the Giants, Gausman has a 3.00 ERA, 30.0 K%, and 6.5 BB% in 251 2/3 innings. Gausman’s bet on himself paid off, and he hits the market ineligible for a qualifying offer. If Gausman’s price gets too high for the Giants’ liking, he could land with the Tigers, Mariners, Angels, Twins, Blue Jays, Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, or Cardinals.
6. Marcus Semien. Six years, $138MM.
TD: Red Sox / SA: Dodgers / AF: Angels
Semien settled in as Oakland’s dependable starting shortstop as of 2015, but his offense skyrocketed in 2019 en route to a third-place finish in AL MVP voting. An unimpressive regular season in 2020 led to Semien betting on himself in free agency, signing a one-year, $18MM deal with the Blue Jays and moving to second base. With the Jays, Semien established that 2020 was the fluke, as his monster 45 home run 2021 campaign will net him MVP votes once again. Semien’s Statcast batting metrics don’t stand out this year, but you can’t argue with the results.
Defensively, Semien may profile better at second base than shortstop, but he’s played significantly more short in his career and should at least be good for a few years there. Semien does carry the weight of a qualifying offer, but interest should be robust for clubs that missed out on Correa and Seager or prefer not to shop in the $300MM aisle. His market also may differ from Correa and Seager in that he’s more likely to be signed as a second baseman. As a 31-year-old, Semien may be limited to a six-year pact, itself hard to achieve at this age. The Blue Jays will surely attempt to re-sign Semien, but otherwise the Phillies, Red Sox, Yankees, White Sox, Tigers, Twins, Astros, Angels, Mariners, Rangers, Cardinals, and Dodgers are other potential matches.
7. Robbie Ray. Five years, $130MM.
TD: Blue Jays / SA: Blue Jays / AF: Blue Jays
Drafted by the Nationals out of high school in the 12th round in 2010, Ray was traded to the Tigers in the December 2013 Doug Fister deal. A year later, Ray was dealt to the Diamondbacks in the three-way trade that sent Didi Gregorius to the Yankees. Ray found success in his first five seasons for the D’Backs as a high-strikeout, high-walk, homer-prone southpaw. In 2017, he made the All-Star team and finished seventh in the NL Cy Young voting. But in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, Ray’s already-high walk rate jumped to an untenable 20.1% through seven starts, and with free agency looming he was shipped to Toronto mostly as a salary dump.
Ray’s brief effort for the 2020 Jays didn’t stand out, and he still walked batters at a higher rate than he had from 2015-19 in Arizona. Toronto saw something they liked nonetheless, making an early free agent strike by re-upping him to a one-year, $8MM deal in November last year.
Ray began the 2021 season on the IL for a bruised elbow suffered falling down some stairs. After a six-walk outing on April 18th, the notion of Ray contending for the AL Cy Young award would have been laughable — but that’s exactly what he did. The 30-year-old lefty led all of baseball with 248 strikeouts, also solving his longstanding walk issue with a career-best 6.9 BB%. Ray’s 2.84 ERA was the best in the American League. As Kaitlyn McGrath of The Athletic put it, “How Ray went from good to elite took a change in his mechanics, a change in his approach and a change in his physique.” Still, it wasn’t a radical overhaul in terms of pitch selection for Ray, who has remained a fastball-slider pitcher.
Ray showed strong control over a five-month period this year. For a potential new team, how much does that erase his 13 BB% from the three prior years? It’s also worth considering that Ray allowed a home run to 4.3% of batters faced this year, 19th-worst in MLB among those with at least 100 innings pitched. While Ray is about nine months younger than fellow top free agent Gausman, the lefty bears the burden of a qualifying offer. Their markets figure to be similar.
8. Trevor Story. Six years, $126MM.
TD: Phillies / SA: Rangers / AF: Astros
Story, 29 this month, ranked second among MLB shortstops with 13.6 WAR from 2018-20. At the plate, he posted a 124 wRC+ during that time and was a regular 30-homer threat. Story was one of the game’s best defensive shortstops by Outs Above Average in 2019, though his OAA marks have been pedestrian since. Amid trade rumors and right elbow inflammation, the longtime Rockie slipped to a 100 wRC+ at the plate. But after the trade deadline passed, Story rallied for a 127 wRC+ that was more in line with his career work.
The Rockies chose not to trade Story, instead tagging him with a qualifying offer. Like most Rockies regulars, Story has been a much better hitter at Coors Field. We’ve seen plenty of hitters leave that comfortable hitting environment and continue to succeed — Matt Holliday, DJ LeMahieu, Nolan Arenado, Corey Dickerson, Seth Smith, Dexter Fowler, and Chris Iannetta among them. Others, like Brad Hawpe and Troy Tulowitzki, could not sustain their success. And still others, like Garrett Atkins and Carlos Gonzalez, began their decline while still in a Rockies uniform.
It’d be overly simplistic to suggest Story’s offensive success is a product of Coors. And even with his worst season at the plate since 2017, Story still posted 3.5 WAR. By some metrics, he has remained an above-average defender. Though he may not have the youth or ceiling of Correa or Seager or the platform year of Semien, Story should be highly coveted in free agency. The Astros, Rangers, Yankees, Tigers, Twins, Angels, Phillies, and Cardinals may be involved.
9. Max Scherzer. Three years, $120MM.
TD: Dodgers / SA: Dodgers / AF: Dodgers
Scherzer, 37, has already put together a Hall of Fame career in his 14 years in MLB, mainly with the Tigers and Nationals. He won a Cy Young in 2013, ’16, and ’17 and finished top-five in four other seasons. In 2021, Scherzer showed no signs of slowing down, and he’s in the running for the top pitching award once again. Not long after landing his fourth All-Star game start, Scherzer was traded by the Nationals to the Dodgers along with Trea Turner in a blockbuster deal.
Scherzer’s dominance only deepened with the Dodgers, and overall he finished with a 2.46 ERA, a 34.1 K% that ranked second in the NL, and a 5.2 BB% that ranked fifth. Scherzer’s postseason experience is extensive, but after getting his first career save against the Giants in NLDS Game 5, Scherzer started Game 2 of the NLCS and started feeling the effects. Arm fatigue kept him from Game 6, and that’s as far as the Dodgers went.
Even at 37, Scherzer remains a Game 1 ace, and bidding for his services among playoff hopefuls will be fierce. He’s free of a qualifying offer, too. Three-year deals are exceedingly rare at Scherzer’s age, yet we still think he can get there. We also believe that given the relatively short term, Scherzer can surpass MLB’s record average annual value of $36MM and possibly even become the game’s first $40MM AAV player. The Dodgers should have the inside track, but otherwise the Giants, Angels, Astros, Blue Jays, Mariners, Tigers, Red Sox, Yankees, Mets, Padres, and Cardinals could join the bidding.
10. Nick Castellanos. Five years, $115MM.
TD: Rangers / SA: Padres / AF: Padres
Castellanos, 30 in March, posted a 140 wRC+ on the season that ranked third among free agents, behind Kyle Schwarber and the now-retired Buster Posey. His 34 home runs ranked third behind Marcus Semien and Kyle Seager. Aside from the lost 2020 season, Castellanos has posted at least a 122 wRC+ in every year since 2018. He also shows well in Statcast metrics. Castellanos is one of the best hitters available in free agency this year.
Castellanos made the easy choice to opt out of the remaining two years and $34MM owed to him by the Reds, who have since tagged him with a qualifying offer. Aside from the QO, the knock on Castellanos is his defense, which has been consistently below-average. By Outs Above Average, he was the second-worst right fielder in the game this year. Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimare Zone Rating weren’t quite so bearish but still agreed he was a below-average outfielder once again. Still, there’s a good chance the DH comes to the NL in 2022, and Castellanos could draw interest from the Rangers, Rockies, Marlins, White Sox, Reds and Mets.Comment -
11. Marcus Stroman. Five years, $110MM.
TD: Angels / SA: Twins / AF: Dodgers
Stroman, 31 in May, opted out of the 2020 season due to the pandemic an, and then accepted a one-year, $18.9MM qualifying offer to remain with the Mets. Like Gausman, that decision worked out well. Stroman ranked eighth in the NL with a 3.02 ERA this year, and was one of only seven MLB starters to make 33 regular season starts. Of the last five seasons in which Stroman has played, he’s started at least 32 games in four of them.
Stroman’s game is about keeping the ball on the ground and limiting walks. His strikeout rate is generally below average, and even this past season’s career-best 21.6% mark was shy of the 22.6% league-average among starters. It’s worth noting that Stroman did set new career-highs in swinging-strike rate and opponents’ chase rate.
The grounder/command-oriented approach isn’t as typical as it once was, but Stroman has managed to defy ERA estimators like SIERA by a wide margin in three separate seasons: 2017, 2019, and 2021. Even if he settles in as a mid-rotation arm, Stroman is free of a qualifying offer and will be a popular free agent. He’ll draw interest from the same group of teams that are attracted to Gausman and Ray.
12. Javier Baez. Five years, $100MM.
TD: Rangers / SA: Tigers / AF: Rangers
Baez, nicknamed El Mago, is one of baseball’s most exciting and popular players. He’s hit 94 home runs in the last three full MLB seasons. Baez’s flashy defense earned him a Gold Glove in 2020, and he led all shortstops in outs above average in ’19. His tags are a thing of beauty. He adds value as a baserunner, somehow inducing ridiculous plays like this one.
Baez is also a hacker at the plate, striking out in more than a third of his plate appearances this year. He’s not big on drawing walks, getting on base that way only about 5% of the time. The result is an on-base percentage that generally falls short of .320. Baez benefits immensely from writing off 2020, as he was among one of the worst hitters in the game and seemingly scared the Cubs off extension talks.
The Cubs shipped Baez to the Mets this year near the trade deadline, freeing him of a potential qualifying offer and pushing him to second base to play alongside his friend Francisco Lindor. At the end of August, Baez was sitting on a .290 OBP and a 102 wRC+, apologizing for a thumbs-down gesture he started as a way of booing Mets fans. Then Baez went off with a 169 wRC+ in the season’s final month, helping pull his overall wRC+ to 116.
Baez offers an exciting blend of power, versatile defense, baserunning, and marketability. If the Mets don’t retain him, his market should be similar to that of Story.
13. Starling Marte. Four years, $80MM.
TD: Mets / SA: Giants / AF: Phillies
Marte, 33, is the only starting-caliber center fielder on the free agent market this winter. He played six full seasons for the Pirates, tallying at least 3 WAR in each of them. The Bucs signed Marte to an extension in 2014 that gave them club options on his first two years of free agency. Those options were exercised, and Marte played those two seasons for the Diamondbacks, Marlins, and A’s.
Though Marte is an older free agent, he benefits from a lack of center field alternatives, ineligibility for a qualifying offer, and the best season of his career. Marte’s well-rounded contributions this year included a career-best 133 wRC+ and the most baserunning value generated by any player. Speedy as Marte is, he wasn’t among the 40 fastest regulars in the game this year in terms of average sprint speed (as measured by Statcast). No matter: he led all of MLB with 47 stolen bases, getting caught only five times.
Marte wisely rejected a reported three-year, $30MM extension offer from the Marlins before his July trade. We think a four-year deal is justified. Players like George Springer, DJ LeMahieu, Josh Donaldson, and Lorenzo Cain have all signed major free-agent deals that pay through age 36 or 37, and Marte should add to that list. The Giants, Yankees, Phillies, Mets, Braves, Rockies, and Dodgers are among the potential suitors.
14. Eduardo Rodriguez. Five years, $70MM.
TD: Twins / SA: Tigers / AF: Twins
Rodriguez, 29 in April, joined the Red Sox at the 2014 trade deadline in a trade with the Orioles for Andrew Miller. Since making his big league debut in 2015, Rodriguez had made at least 20 starts in every season until 2020. He battled some knee injuries earlier in his career, culminating in surgery after the 2017 season. The southpaw’s finest year came in 2019, when he finished sixth in AL Cy Young voting. Unfortunately, Rodriguez got COVID-19 in June of 2020 and developed a heart condition called myocarditis. He missed the 2020 season and was barred from physical activity for three months.
Thankfully, 2021 marked a successful comeback season for Rodriguez. The lefty posted career-bests in strikeout and walk rate, with a K-BB% that ranked 15th in the game among those with at least 150 innings. He also ranked among the game’s best in terms of average exit velocity (90th percentile) and opponents’ hard-hit rate (87th percentile) and pitched well in his final two postseason starts. Rodriguez did post a career-worst 4.74 ERA, driven in large part by a .363 batting average on balls in play. Virtually any fielding-independent metric is far more bullish on Rodriguez, who posted a 3.64 SIERA and 3.32 FIP.
We believe Rodriguez might surprise some people with a four or even-five year deal this winter, although Boston’s decision to issue a qualifying offer figures to put a dent in his market. We still believe teams not quite willing to pay $23-25MM AAVs for starting pitching might turn to Rodriguez, and he’s young enough to entice clubs that are trying to get better but don’t quite expect to win the World Series in 2022.
15. Kyle Schwarber. Four years, $70MM.
TD: Rockies / SA: Blue Jays / AF: Nationals
Schwarber, 29 in March, posted a 145 wRC+ that ranked first among all free agents and 11th in baseball among players with at least 400 plate appearances. It was basically four months worth of elite hitting, as Schwarber struggled in April and missed over a month during the summer with a hamstring strain. As he recovered from the injury, the Red Sox acquired Schwarber in a trade with Nationals.
Drafted fourth overall by the Cubs in 2014, Schwarber put up a 115 wRC+ for the club over the course of 492 games before struggling in the shortened 2020 season. He had his share of big postseason hits for the Cubs, including a dramatic return to DH in the 2016 playoffs after missing nearly the entire season due to a torn ACL and LCL. The Cubs chose not to tender Schwarber a contract after 2020, and he signed for one year and $10MM with the Nationals. Prior to ’20, the Cubs generally shielded the left-handed-hitting Schwarber against southpaw pitchers, letting him face them in fewer than 20% of plate appearances. This year, there were no such concerns: Schwarber saw lefties 31.6% of the time and posted a 119 wRC+ against them.
Though he was drafted as a catcher, the Cubs gradually phased Schwarber out of that position and into left field. He’s graded out as below-average defensively. The Red Sox used Schwarber in 19 games at first base, a position he had not played for the Cubs, given the presence of Anthony Rizzo.
The potential addition of the DH to the NL would help Schwarber, who is ineligible for a qualifying offer. After out-producing Nick Castellanos on a rate basis, Schwarber should see a similar market as one of the best bat-first players available. Castellanos has the more consistent track record and doesn’t have the history of platoon issues, so he gets the nod over Schwarber in terms of earning power for our list purposes despite a similarly productive 2021 season.
16. Chris Taylor. Four years, $64MM.
TD: Marlins / SA: Red Sox / AF: Mariners
The Dodgers acquired Taylor from the Mariners in June 2016, as a means of improving infield depth. Taylor added the outfield to his repertoire in a breakout 2017 season, and won the NLCS MVP award that year. Taylor has remained an above-average hitter ever since, and has a 114 wRC+ over the last three seasons. Though he struggled to hit in September this year, “CT3” left a strong final impression with his huge playoff showing. It was Taylor’s walk-off homer that propelled the Dodgers past the Cardinals in the Wild Card round, and he slugged three home runs in Game 5 of the NLCS to help the Dodgers force a Game 6.
Taylor has been deployed at second base, shortstop, third base, center field, and left field in his career. Though he’s sometimes compared to Ben Zobrist, Taylor reaches free agency at an earlier age and with more defensive versatility. He may not have quite the offensive track record Zobrist carried into free agency, but he’s very arguably a more attractive target for teams.
As expected, the Dodgers issued a qualifying offer to Taylor. We expect him to take his shot at a multiyear deal, but certain clubs may shy away from surrendering a draft pick or two to sign him. Taylor’s ability to play all over the diamond still makes him a potential fit for many teams, including the Blue Jays, White Sox, Mariners, Braves, Marlins, Mets, Phillies, Rockies, Giants, and Cubs.
17. Raisel Iglesias. Four years, $56MM.
TD: Dodgers / SA: Astros / AF: Blue Jays
Iglesias is easily the best reliever of this free agent class. He defected from Cuba in 2013, signing a seven-year deal with the Reds the following year. Iglesias worked as a starter in 2015 before finding his home in the bullpen. After his 2018 season, Iglesias inked a three-year, $24.125MM extension. Seeking payroll relief, the Reds shipped Iglesias to the Angels in December 2020 — a trade that amounted to a pure salary dump.
Iglesias, 32 in January, ranked third among all relievers and first among free-agent relievers with a 33.3 K-BB%. Among the 398 pitchers to throw at least 40 innings in 2021 (starters and relievers alike), Iglesias ranked 10th in strikeout rate (37.7%), 14th in walk rate (4.4%), ninth in chase rate on pitches out of the strike zone (39.5%) and third in swinging-strike rate (20.6%). None of those 398 pitchers posted a higher combined percentage of swinging strikes and called strikes (36.8%).
Iglesias’ primary flaw is that he’s allowed 1.4 homers per nine frames over the past four seasons. It’d be charitable to attribute that solely to his time in the homer-happy Great American Ball Park, as he also coughed up 11 homers while playing his home games at the much friendlier Angel Stadium in 2021.
The Angels issued Iglesias a qualifying offer, so signing him will require the forfeit of draft picks. Any deep-pocketed contender seeking a lockdown stopper at the back end of their bullpen figures to be in on Iglesias, who could take aim at Liam Hendriks’ $18MM AAV record for relievers. The Blue Jays, Astros, Red Sox, Dodgers, Phillies, and Padres are potential suitors.
18. Carlos Rodon. One year, $25MM.
TD: Astros / SA: Red Sox / AF: Angels
Drafted third overall by the White Sox out of NC State in 2014, Rodon was part of the team’s rotation the following year. The hard-throwing lefty with the nasty slider was limited to 12 starts in 2017 due to a biceps injury, undergoing arthroscopic shoulder surgery in the offseason that held him to 20 starts the following year. Rodon still served as Chicago’s Opening Day starter in 2019, but by May he was under the knife for Tommy John surgery. Rodon returned for four appearances in 2020, and was non-tendered by the White Sox in December with little fanfare. In late January of this year, Rodon returned to the club on a one-year, $3MM deal that turned out to be one of the best bargains of the offseason.
Working with new White Sox pitching coach Ethan Katz, Rodon made changes to his delivery and came out of the gate with guns blazing. He threw a no-hitter in his second start of the season, made his first All-Star team, and had his ERA as low as 2.14 after a dominating start on July 18th in Houston.
Having thrown just 42 1/3 innings from all of 2019-20, Rodon seemed to wear down at this point. He averaged more than six innings per start and 96 miles per hour on his fastball through July 18th, but only 4.5 innings per start and 94.1 miles per hour thereafter. Rodon dipped all the way to 91 miles per hour against the Reds on September 29th, and then on 12 days rest in a 56-pitch ALDS start, he was able to crank it back up to 96. On the season, Rodon pitched on four days of rest only six times. It can be argued that he’s best-served as part of a six-man rotation. Despite the velocity dip, Rodon still rates as the hardest-throwing starting pitcher on the market this winter.
Even in those somewhat worrying final nine starts, Rodon was able to punch out 28.9% of batters with a 3.26 ERA. His overall season numbers — 2.37 ERA, 34.6 K%, and 6.7 BB% — are off the charts. So what will Rodon do, coming off a dominant season in the middle of which he seemed to run out of gas? According to Bob Nightengale of USA Today, the White Sox “decided at the end of the season that they were not going to bring Rodon back,” and the club was surprisingly unwilling to even issue the one-year qualifying offer. Is that just the White Sox being frugal, or is it a red flag regarding Rodon’s health? We expect Rodon to receive multiyear offers this winter, though he might be better-served to take a large one-year deal and establish his health.
Rodon’s free agency should be fascinating, especially without the burden of a qualifying offer. He’ll need a team with a high tolerance for injury risk and a preference for high-AAV short-term deals. The Dodgers, Giants, Braves, Red Sox, Yankees, Mariners, and Astros could be candidates.
19. Jon Gray. Four years, $56MM.
TD: Tigers / SA: Angels / AF: Giants
Drafted third overall by the Rockies in 2013 out of the University of Oklahoma, Gray never quite put together an All-Star caliber season in his six-plus years with the club. He’s still been one of the best pitchers ever drafted by Colorado. The righty was one of the five-hardest throwing starting pitchers from 2016-19. While he’s not at his 96 mile per hour heyday at age 30, he still ranked 13th in average fastball velocity this year among those with at least 140 innings, and third among free agents.
Gray has made at least 25 starts in each full season dating back to 2018. Outside of his eight-start 2020 season, which ended early with shoulder inflammation, Gray has always posted an above-average strikeout rate. This year, Gray hit the IL in June for a right flexor strain, missing three weeks. He exited a late August start with forearm tightness, but that turned out to be a minimum IL stay. The injuries did not affect his velocity, though he did surrender 11 earned runs in his final 8 2/3 innings, pushing his ERA from 4.17 to 4.59.
The Rockies declined to trade Gray at the July deadline, stating their intent to extend him. In late September the club offered “a three-year deal in the range of $35 million to $40 million,” according to Nick Groke and Eno Sarris of The Athletic. He rejected.
Front offices are likelier to be more attracted to what’s under the hood than his surface-level 4.59 ERA. The bet here is that teams will look past the up-and-down nature of Gray’s career and view him as an upside play who’ll thrive away from Coors Field and with more robust information and data at his disposal. Gray is a former No. 3 overall pick who averages 95 mph or better on his heater. He’s better than league-average in terms of strikeout rate, walk rate and ground-ball rate for his career, with promising swinging-strike rates on a near-yearly basis. Some teams will believe they can turn Gray into a slam-dunk playoff starter.
The Rockies’ interest in retaining Gray was not enough for them to issue a qualifying offer, so they must have found the potential one-year price too high. Now, Gray gets to enjoy his first time through free agency without the QO dragging him down. The Angels, Blue Jays, Tigers, Twins, Mariners, Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, Giants, Dodgers, Cardinals and just about any team looking at rotation help could consider him. Gray’s upside and price point (relative to the top of the market) could also pique the interest of teams that aren’t looking at 2022 as a must-win season, putting him in play for clubs like the Rangers, Cubs and Nationals.
20. Seiya Suzuki. Five years, $55MM.
TD: Phillies / SA: Rangers / AF: Rangers
Perhaps an unknown name to many who are viewing this list, Suzuki is a 27-year-old outfielder who is expected to be posted by the Hiroshima Carp this offseason. We’ve received a broad range of opinions on Suzuki when surveying teams and scouts who’ve seen him play in Japan. That’s likely indicative of the volatility and uncertainty that is inherent to signing star players from overseas, but the most bullish outlooks on Suzuki peg him as an everyday right fielder with more than enough power to hit in the middle of a big league lineup. Dylan Hernandez of the L.A. Times cited a scout who called Suzuki the “best player in Japan” in an August profile of the slugger, and at least one evaluator to whom we spoke echoed that sentiment.
Suzuki won’t turn 28 until next August and is putting the finishing touches on another dominant season in NPB. Through 530 plate appearances this season, he’s posted a .319/.436/.640 batting line with 38 home runs, 26 doubles and nine steals (in 13 tries). Dating back to 2018, the right-handed-hitting Suzuki has put together a combined .319/.435/.592 batting line with 121 home runs, 115 doubles, four triples and 44 stolen bases (albeit in 72 attempts) through 2167 plate appearances.
Unlike many sluggers, including countryman Yoshi Tsutsugo, Suzuki achieves this production without selling out for the power. Since 2018, he’s fanned in only 16.4 percent of his plate appearances — compared to a nearly identical 16 percent walk rate. Suzuki has played some center field in the past, though no one we spoke to believes he’ll be a regular there. He has four NPB Gold Gloves for his work in right field, however, and while big league evaluators don’t seem convinced he’ll be an elite defender in MLB, the consensus seems to be that he’ll be a strong-armed, above-average right fielder.
The risk is always considerable when signing top-tier talent from other professional leagues, be it NPB, the KBO or the Cuban National Series. Suzuki is a legitimate superstar in NPB, however, with tools that are loud enough to forecast him as a Major League regular. A 25-homer bat with solid right field defense sounds an awful lot like Avisail Garcia, who places lower on this list — but Suzuki’s youth, huge walk rates and the upside of the unknown give him an edge for us, even if it’s possible they profile as similar players.
The contract we’re predicting for Suzuki would come with a $10.125MM posting fee, bringing the total outlay to $65.125MM. As always, it’s possible (or even probable) that his representatives will ponder the possibility of working an opt-out clause into the deal, perhaps allowing him to re-enter the market if he proves himself through his first two to three seasons. It’d be tough for a contender to just plug Suzuki right into its lineup, though teams like the Giants, Braves and Brewers certainly represent on-paper fits. Suzuki seems like a better fit for a club looking to turn the corner and willing to take on some risk, however, which could open him up to the Marlins, Cubs, Rangers, Tigers and Nationals.Comment -
Machado got robbed of the gold glove. Arenado won on reputation this year.Comment -
I feel your homer pain, I do, but Arenado is a super human defender.
He made every play again this past season, and some only Michael Jack Schmidt and Brooks Robinson could only dream of making.
Arenado earned it.
Now you did it, you're making me go to the defensive WAR tables for third basemen.
I'll post those stats later.Comment -
I know all about how great Arenado is defensively, best 3rd baseman(defensively) I've ever seen but Machado outplayed him this year. Remember, I'm a NL West guy and have watched hundreds of games when Arenado was with Colorado. I guess it just sucks for Machado to be playing at the same time time as the 3rd base defensive GOAT.Comment -
Pretty ironic JP.
Right after I read your post and right before I logged into my database tables an entry posted on the SI blog from sports writer Shawn Childs caught my eye.
Childs wrote about Phil Dussault who won the whole enchilada in this year's NFBC.
Took home 324,000 big ones.
Anyway, it detailed Dussault's draft strategies, how he streamed his hitting from week to week...
Terrific read.
Not for nothing I know Phil Dussault, well I don't know him know him per se, I know him through the NFBC, I enter a team every year, keeps me sharp. He writes for RotoBaller, I just contribute to Rotowire. He also has a podcast which is very successful, unlike mine which is still trying to find its way.
Here comes the irony, Dussault's second round selection was Machado.
Here's the defensive WAR rankings for 3B.
I've always knew that McMahon was steady with the glove out there in Denver, just didn't notice the vast improvement.
You'd know better than me, you're NL West guy. I'm AL East and AL Central guy.
I did pay a lot more attention to the NL West this season however.
Just like Arenado in St. Louis now, Chapman is automatic every year in Oakland.
Name Team G Def Off WAR Ryan McMahon COL 151 11 -5.4 2.5 Matt Chapman OAK 151 10.8 2.5 3.4 Nolan Arenado STL 157 7.8 10.7 4 Yoan Moncada CHW 144 7.4 16.6 4.5 Manny Machado SDP 153 6.9 15.8 4.4 Jose Ramirez CLE 152 5.8 35.4 6.3 Kyle Seager SEA 159 4.9 -3 2.5 Eduardo Escobar - - - 146 4.6 5.4 3 Eugenio Suarez CIN 145 1.6 -15 0.6 Luis Urias MIL 150 0.5 7.3 2.7 Justin Turner LAD 151 -0.1 19.8 4 Jonathan Villar NYM 142 -2.1 6.8 2.1 Rafael Devers BOS 156 -3.6 27.6 4.7 Jeimer Candelario DET 149 -4.7 15.3 3.2 Yandy Diaz TBR 134 -5.1 5 1.8 Austin Riley ATL 160 -6 25.7 4.2 Kris Bryant - - - 144 -6.3 22.5 3.6 Hunter Dozier KCR 144 -6.7 -13.3 -0.2 Josh Donaldson MIN 135 -8.5 12 2.2 Comment -
EmpireMaker, where is Kershaw going?Comment -
Who currently has the best mlb curve ball.
I loved watching smith from ATLComment -
It seems only Kershaw knows where he's going and the Dodgers basically left it up to him by not extending him a qualifying offer. He's coming off a pretty bad injury so I think it's possible he doesn't come back and decides to hang it up out of loyalty to the Dodgers who were the only team he knew. I'm just speculating though so your guess is as good as mine.Last edited by jrgum3; 11-10-21, 02:50 PM.Comment -
Lots of good info on here boys, I wish my cubs were in on some of these free agents.Comment -
Rangers’ brass has suggested on multiple occasions the club anticipates being active in free agency this winter, and it indeed seems ownership is prepared to support an offseason spending spree. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports that the Rangers could add $100MM+ to their payroll this offseason.
That kind of offseason would certainly be atypical for a club coming off back-to-back last place finishes in the AL West. Texas clearly has designs at pushing forward their contention window, though. The current roster probably has too many holes for the Rangers to compete for a playoff spot next season. But adding one or more marquee players on multi-year deals could make a 2023 window more realistic, and this offseason’s free agent class has plenty of potential prime-aged targets. That indeed seems to be the front office’s thought process in projecting an active offseason.
“I don’t think we expect to just come out and be World Series contenders next season,” general manager Chris Young told reporters (including Kennedi Landry of MLB.com). “That said, we expect to take major steps from where we were this year and continue to build this so that by 2023, we’re in a very good position and competing for the division and have the opportunity to make the playoffs and potentially win a World Series.”
As the Rangers have stripped down the roster in recent seasons, the team’s spending has taken a corresponding nosedive. Texas has opened seasons with a payroll north of $165MM in the past, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, but Jason Martinez of Roster Resource currently projects their 2022 financial commitments around just $51MM (including arbitration projections). Last month, president of baseball operations Jon Daniels indicated the club would increase spending over the coming offseasons. Daniels was deliberately vague about precisely how much money the team might allocate in each winter, but it seems there’s a chance Texas makes multiple significant additions and pushes back near franchise-record levels of spending this winter alone.
The Rangers have very few players locked in anywhere on the roster, giving Daniels, Young and the rest of the front office ample avenues to explore. This year’s free agent class features a handful of franchise shortstops — including Dallas-area native Trevor Story — as well as a strong group of corner outfielders. One of the youngest players on the market is 27-year-old Japanese star Seiya Suzuki. Suzuki’s NPB team, the Hiroshima Carp, are expected to make him available via the posting process.
Executives with other clubs see the Rangers as one of the prime suitors to land Suzuki, hears Jon Morosi of MLB.com. Between the star outfielder’s youth and Texas’ payroll space, it’s a fairly easy connection to draw. Suzuki is coming off a massive .319/.436/.644 showing over 530 plate appearances, and some evaluators believe he can immediately step into MLB as an above-average everyday right fielder. If the Rangers’ scouting department shares that level of optimism, then a pursuit of Suzuki makes plenty of sense. MLBTR projects the right-handed hitter to land a five-year, $55MM contract that would come with an additional $10.125MM posting fee to be paid to the Carp.
Story and Suzuki are just two of numerous options for the Rangers, who seem likely to be connected to impact players all offseason. With Texas having perhaps as much payroll flexibility and desire to add talent as anyone, it could be a winter of big-ticket pursuits in Arlington.Comment -
33. Clayton Kershaw. One year, $20MM.
TD: Rangers / SA: Rangers / AF: Phillies
Kershaw, 34 in March, will eventually enter the Hall of Fame as a Dodger. His resume includes three Cy Young awards and votes in six other seasons. The legendary lefty saw his average fastball velocity drop to 90.7 miles per hour this year, down from the prior shortened campaign but within range of his 2018-19 work. He was a big contributor to the Dodgers’ 2020 championship, with a 2.93 ERA over five starts. Though a bit homer-prone over the past five seasons, Kershaw 25.2 K-BB% in 2021 remains elite.
Kershaw made 22 starts this year. He returned to pitch in September after a two-month absence due to a forearm injury, but after four starts his season ended due to a recurrence. Kershaw received a platelet-rich plasma injection in October for what he termed a “flexor issue,” with no current plans for surgery. The options for Kershaw appear to be a return to the Dodgers, a move to his hometown Rangers, or retirement. The Dodgers surprisingly elected not to issue a qualifying offer to Kershaw, which could be perceived as a red flag on his health or just a friendly gesture meant to allow him to explore free agency uninhibited. A multiyear contract is still possible, but we decided to predict one year given the uncertainty of Kershaw’s injury.Comment -
Kershaw is not worth 20 million a season.Comment
