Alright two days in the books and for the most part Mike and I have been on point. I may not have been able to live up to Mike's 2 HR day fromBryce Harper, but Jon Jay, Ryan Braun, and Carlos Gonzalez all left the yard while Jean Segura, Rickie Weeks, and Matt Carpenter all earned their value as well. Oh and of course our man Yu Darvish was phenomenal. Jarrod Parkeron the other hand, yuck. Let's see if we can keep it rolling!
Miguel Montero (ARZ) - We're going to keep it simple for you at the Catcher position today; you can't go wrong selecting a guy named Montero. The Arizona version, Miguel, gets a favorable matchup against Lance Lynn of the Cardinals. Lynn had a really nice season last year but he's always been hittable. Even in the minor leagues he allowed over a hit per inning in his final two seasons at AAA and at the big league level he's allowed a 22.1% LD Rate. Lynn improves that number slightly to 20.5% LD Rate allowed against LHB's but all of the other peripherals get far worse. Lynn walks 14% of the LHB's he faces and gives up 1.27 HR/9 while posting a 5.13 FIP and 4.85 xFIP in his career against LHB's. Chase Field really plays up left-handed power and Montero posted a .299/.414/.444 line against RHP last year, buoyed by a sparkling 22% LD Rate. A line drive hitter facing a pitcher who happens to allow a ton of line drives to LHB's? In a park that exaggerates LH power? Yes, please.
Avoid:
Jonathan Lucroy (MIL) - Daily fantasy baseball is a fickle game. Just one day after appearing on our best values list (and letting us down), Lucroy finds himself on the "avoid" list. Lucroy is priced like an elite catcher on a day he faces a right-handed pitcher and against RHP Lucroy is very average. In his career, he's hit just .263/.315/.361 against RHP. Juan Nicasio might look like a friendly matchup, but he's actually posted a strong 2.81 FIP in his career against RHB's and has limited them to just 0.39 HR/9. There are simply too many reasons to avoid Lucroy on a day with some better values priced below him at the catcher position.
First Base:
Best Value Play:
Brandon Belt (SF) - Belt missed last night's game with a stomach issue so you'll have to check the lineups to make sure he's available but if he is I like the matchup with Josh Beckett. Beckett allowed 1.24 HR/9 to LHB's over the last 3 years along with a 20% LD Rate. Belt has actually hit better against LHP in his short time in the majors than RHP, but his underlying peripherals against RHP are a bit more solid. He walks in almost 12% of his PA's against RHP and his strikeout rate is down a bit against RHP as well. Coming off a monstrous spring in which Belt hit .410/.432/.833, I think Belt gets his breakout season going on Wednesday. If you're looking to save some money at 1B, Belt is your guy.
Other Strong Value Plays:Eric Hosmer (KC)
Must Play of the Day:
Freddie Freeman (ATL) - Freddie is the 1B I'll be most likely to use across daily sites tomorrow. In his career against Roy Halladay he's gone 7-15 with 3 HR's, 2 BB's, and 2 K's. Some of those AB's came against the good Roy Halladay from two years ago and so far this spring we've seen more reasons for concern than excitement over Halladay's 2013 campaign. His velocity has been down and he served up 3 HR's in 16 spring innings while also yielding a 1.84 WHIP. Meanwhile Freeman homered on opening day and is coming off a spring in which he hit 7 HR's on his way to a .342/.366/.658 line. With two players looking like they're heading in opposite directions I think Freeman could be our Must-play of the day.
Avoid:
Paul Konerko (CHW) - Ervin Santana is the ideal opposing SP to stream daily hitters against because he's so homer prone and getting him in the Cell where balls fly out at a very high rate is an ideal matchup, but for whatever reason Konerko just doesn't see Santana very well. Over their careers, they've met 35 times and Konerko has struck out more times (9) than he's reached base (8). He has just one extra base hit and has posted a .444 OPS. It's also supposed to be in the 40's in Chicago on Wednesday and the thick air should knock down some of those fly balls, making it less likely for Santana's HR tendencies to come back to hurt him.
Miguel Montero (ARZ) - We're going to keep it simple for you at the Catcher position today; you can't go wrong selecting a guy named Montero. The Arizona version, Miguel, gets a favorable matchup against Lance Lynn of the Cardinals. Lynn had a really nice season last year but he's always been hittable. Even in the minor leagues he allowed over a hit per inning in his final two seasons at AAA and at the big league level he's allowed a 22.1% LD Rate. Lynn improves that number slightly to 20.5% LD Rate allowed against LHB's but all of the other peripherals get far worse. Lynn walks 14% of the LHB's he faces and gives up 1.27 HR/9 while posting a 5.13 FIP and 4.85 xFIP in his career against LHB's. Chase Field really plays up left-handed power and Montero posted a .299/.414/.444 line against RHP last year, buoyed by a sparkling 22% LD Rate. A line drive hitter facing a pitcher who happens to allow a ton of line drives to LHB's? In a park that exaggerates LH power? Yes, please.
Avoid:
Jonathan Lucroy (MIL) - Daily fantasy baseball is a fickle game. Just one day after appearing on our best values list (and letting us down), Lucroy finds himself on the "avoid" list. Lucroy is priced like an elite catcher on a day he faces a right-handed pitcher and against RHP Lucroy is very average. In his career, he's hit just .263/.315/.361 against RHP. Juan Nicasio might look like a friendly matchup, but he's actually posted a strong 2.81 FIP in his career against RHB's and has limited them to just 0.39 HR/9. There are simply too many reasons to avoid Lucroy on a day with some better values priced below him at the catcher position.
First Base:
Best Value Play:
Brandon Belt (SF) - Belt missed last night's game with a stomach issue so you'll have to check the lineups to make sure he's available but if he is I like the matchup with Josh Beckett. Beckett allowed 1.24 HR/9 to LHB's over the last 3 years along with a 20% LD Rate. Belt has actually hit better against LHP in his short time in the majors than RHP, but his underlying peripherals against RHP are a bit more solid. He walks in almost 12% of his PA's against RHP and his strikeout rate is down a bit against RHP as well. Coming off a monstrous spring in which Belt hit .410/.432/.833, I think Belt gets his breakout season going on Wednesday. If you're looking to save some money at 1B, Belt is your guy.
Other Strong Value Plays:Eric Hosmer (KC)
Must Play of the Day:
Freddie Freeman (ATL) - Freddie is the 1B I'll be most likely to use across daily sites tomorrow. In his career against Roy Halladay he's gone 7-15 with 3 HR's, 2 BB's, and 2 K's. Some of those AB's came against the good Roy Halladay from two years ago and so far this spring we've seen more reasons for concern than excitement over Halladay's 2013 campaign. His velocity has been down and he served up 3 HR's in 16 spring innings while also yielding a 1.84 WHIP. Meanwhile Freeman homered on opening day and is coming off a spring in which he hit 7 HR's on his way to a .342/.366/.658 line. With two players looking like they're heading in opposite directions I think Freeman could be our Must-play of the day.
Avoid:
Paul Konerko (CHW) - Ervin Santana is the ideal opposing SP to stream daily hitters against because he's so homer prone and getting him in the Cell where balls fly out at a very high rate is an ideal matchup, but for whatever reason Konerko just doesn't see Santana very well. Over their careers, they've met 35 times and Konerko has struck out more times (9) than he's reached base (8). He has just one extra base hit and has posted a .444 OPS. It's also supposed to be in the 40's in Chicago on Wednesday and the thick air should knock down some of those fly balls, making it less likely for Santana's HR tendencies to come back to hurt him.
