USF @ Cinci, **** the reverse line movement.

**teaserpleaser** · 10-30-08, 02:06 PM

yep on USF -2.5 if USF loses this though i'll never go against the reverse line movement again.

**Cheme82** · 10-31-08, 11:51 AM

Well, there goes my cash. Serves me well for ignoring the line movement. USF got beat by a one-armed man, that's sad. And Grothe played as ugly as his trashy haircut, that was pathetic.

YTD
NFL
18-5-1 86.95
CFB
19-19 -5.85

**teaserpleaser** · 10-31-08, 11:53 AM

Originally posted by teaserpleaser

yep on USF -2.5 if USF loses this though i'll never go against the reverse line movement again.

I learned my $200 lesson... wont happen again

**VegasDave** · 10-31-08, 12:15 PM

Wonder if anyone has traced reverse line movement... seems to hit like 96%

**SexyMit** · 10-31-08, 04:46 PM

I have been making serious money playing it. And will not stop

**tusky26** · 10-31-08, 05:06 PM

I've been learning/following it for three weeks now. besides the first week in college ONLY, this has been SOLID for me. college is 65% +/- and pros is 90%!

**VegasDave** · 11-01-08, 10:15 AM

It just seems to easy. With free sites that show you line movement now, it is so simple to do this. You don't even have to cap games, just look for these plays. There has to be some kind of a catch, but I don't see it, these keep winning.

**Cheme82** · 11-01-08, 10:52 AM

Originally posted by VegasDave

It just seems to easy. With free sites that show you line movement now, it is so simple to do this. You don't even have to cap games, just look for these plays. There has to be some kind of a catch, but I don't see it, these keep winning.

You have to wonder why would the sites even release the information of the number of bets on each side. Makes me think of the roulette table and their little screen where people "keep track" of the numbers that have hit. There is a feeling like there is a catch to it but I still haven't seen what it is. It also makes you think of how much involvement outside people have in the outcome of games. Because on this reverse line movements the team with the majority of bets always seems to choke on game day.

I am a big critic of the paranoid people that say all the games they lose are fixed, but at least in college it is very doable (specially on smaller conferences with players that are not on the national spotlight). And yet I don't think you can do it on a regular basis in the NFL, or other pro sports but the reverse line movements in those sports also hit like crazy.

Someday we'll figure it out.

YTD
NFL
18-5-1 86.95
CFB
19-19 -5.85
NBA
1-0 10

**VegasDave** · 11-01-08, 11:06 AM

I don't think it has anything to with fixes.

Bookmakers can cap these games better than any of us. They know these teams inside and out to the smallest detail. If Team A's center is playing with a bad calf, they know that, and they factor in that Team B's pass rush should get to the quarterback even faster with the center not able to plant his feet as well as he usually does. Things like that.

Take Hawaii Georgia last year. The average capper looked at the sick numbers Hawaii put up and said yeah, Georgia will win, but Hawaii's offense can't be stopped. Brennan, Grice Mullen, Bess, just amazing. The average capper didn't take into account what the bookmakers knew; that lineplay would decide the game. A WAC offensive and defensive line just doesn't have a chance against an SEC powerhouse. And so they knew they could give Hawaii plenty of points to entice bettors, and some of us bit.

I think it is similar here. They see mismatches that the betting public simply can not see with a quick glance at numbers on their favorite info site. Thus they trap people into taking the side that looks simple to them, when the bookmakers have a good idea that the team they want you to bet on has a big weakness that will be exploited.

**Cheme82** · 11-01-08, 02:40 PM

Great point. So the sharps also know these details and hence the success of the reverse line move play.