Pags' Plays 10/18

[strictlywinners]

Also your South Carolina is very good as well. I strongly disagree on BYU though, TCU is one of my best plays this weke.

[tab]

Few more underdogs capable of pulling off the upset
Miami (OH) +9
Toledo +7.5
UNLV +4.5
San Diego St +14.5

[TPowell]

Pags what do you think about Middle Tennessee State? They're getting 14.5 from Louisville on the road.

[bumppinee]

Pags im riding on the BYU pick also,lets get the book pal.

[Dbldown11]

Few more underdogs capable of pulling off the upset
Miami (OH) +9
Toledo +7.5
UNLV +4.5
San Diego St +14.5

I dont think any of these teams have even a slight chance of winning. Miami OH and Toledo are god aweful teams. UNLV isnt horrible, but not good enough against a solid Air Force Team, and San Diego St......well they may cover but pull the upset?? really??


By the way good luck this week PAGS hopefully we can both bounce back after rough weeks last week.

[dave11486]

South Carolina is such a nice play. Glad you are on it. GL this week pags.

[taurus]

Let's get this out of the way first.
Anyone who wouldn't settle for 3-4 on a 'bad' week hasn't been in this game very long.

pags- I did a little handicapping of my own this week.
Happy to say that VPI, Maryland, Duke, So carolina, Iowa State, and Arizona made my list.
I remained concerned about the GT-Clem game because there may be some surprises sprung on GT with the new coach and Bowden and the OC both gone. Plus death valley is a hard place to play.
GL this week. lol- I'm sure you'll settle for 6-1.

[Trey333]

Pags, what do you think about Boise -24.5 at home on the blue turf vs. hawaii?

[The Seer]

Pags, glad to see you are on SC here. As I concentrate on mostly SEC games, SC has the least-talked-about-best-defense in the country and will be looking to take one from a shell shocked LSU squad. After the fake FG beat them last year SC will be looking for sweet revenge. I got it at +3- earlier this week. Here's another piece of info: I have a former player playing LBer at LSU, he told me today that the team is still stunned by what happened at Florida. Good luck.

[White_Tiger]

GL Pag's nothing against you this week except I like TCU on thursday night.

WT.

[pags11]

toby,

I completely understand what you are saying...for instance this week, there are at least three games I've played that someone can get a better number...people like the ones you mention just can't ever seem to be happy, even with a free service...thanks for your support though bud...

tab,

glad we will be on South Carolina together...I appreciate your thoughts...BOL this week...

jager,

I appreciate your thoughts on my plays...glad you agree with most of them...I'll be posting my write-up later tonight...GL this week...

strictlywinners,

glad you feel so strongly on the ISU play...I understand your reasoning for playing TCU, but I have to trust my gut in that game...GL bud...

tab,

a friend of mine likes Miami OH, but I have no opinion on those four games...thanks for your input...

tpowell,

I definitely wouldn't take Louisville in this game, but I don't have a real opinion on that one...

bumppinee,

it appears we are the minority, but let's stay strong my friend...

dbldown,

thanks bud...yes, let's rebound this week...GL this week...

dave,

glad we will be on South Carolina together...BOL this week...

taurus,

I appreciate you saying that...in some respects I felt pretty fortunate last week and a veteran like you knows sometimes its just best to try to minimize your losses and move onto the week...

trey,

no way I'd play Hawaii in that one...not interested in playing Boise although I wouldn't call you crazy if you played it light...

[pags11]

white_tiger,

I respect your opinion and am glad you agree with most of my plays...GL this week...

[bearmz]

With you on GT, VT, DK, and SCar. The only one I'm butting heads with you is Md.
I was braced for last week and just had that feeling it was gonna be a tough one.
GL TW

[dchecks]

Pags, Fairly new to game but I have been following this thread for awhile. Just wondering if you ever pick over/unders? Love your picks this week!!

Good Luck!!!!

[pags11]

Hello Board,

Here are my plays for the week:

Duke +5

Many people will look at this game and play what I call the “name game”. You have a recognized program like Miami vs. a program like Duke who’s been an ACC doormat for years and think that Miami is going to kill them. If you look further into this match up, though, you will see that Miami has some chinks in their armor and that Duke is a much improved team. Duke Head coach David Cutcliffe has done as good of a job as any coach in the country the first seven weeks of the season and he has his team believing. Duke has a strong defensive line which should help them neutralize the Miami running game. I also have been very impressed with Duke’s secondary, who could give Miami QB Robert Marve fits. I read this week that Randy Shannon was still debating on whether to start him, but did announce he is going with Marve. There’s no question that Shannon can recruit, but he is in over his head trying to go against Cutcliffe with the x’s and o’s this week. Duke QB Thaddeus Lewis (60.0% comp., 7 TD/ 3 INT) should be able to have success against the Miami secondary who comes into this game young and banged up. I haven’t seen Miami generate a whole lot of pressure with their front four either. Lewis has two weapons to throw the ball to in Eron Riley (6 TDs) and Johnny Williams (20 receptions). RB’s Clifford Harris and Jay Hollingsworth will have to work hard running the football to take some of the pressure off Lewis. As hard as it may be for some of you to believe, Duke can hang here deep into this ballgame.


Iowa St. +5.5

I’ve mentioned before that I am extremely impressed with what Gene Chizik is doing with this Iowa State program. Don’t let last week’s loss to Baylor sway you regarding this game, as there is a distinct dichotomy in their performance at home vs. on the road. This is usually the case with young teams, but it’s very apparent to me that they play much better in Aimes, especially in conference. What has Nebraska accomplished to warrant laying this many points to a tough, conference opponent? They played Texas Tech tough last week, I’ll give them that. However, in their previous performances during the season I’ve come away unimpressed. Ultimately, I think Bo Pelini will get things turned around, but I’m not betting a future here. It’s about this week. Iowa State has gotten steady quarterback play from future Big 12 start Austin Arnaud. It’s hard to stand out as a quarterback in the Big 12 with all of the talent, but make no mistake about it; Arnaud has the skills and moxie to lead this team. WR R.J. Sumrall (27 rec., 5 TD’s) has emerged as the go-to go for ISU. He’s got great speed to go along with good hands and is a hard man for opposing defenses to cover. Keep your eye on Sedrick Johnson (2 TD’s) in this game. He’s a freshman with size (6’4”) who was a highly touted recruit out of high school with some big play ability. RB Alexander Robinson is ISU’s workhorse back, and will get the hard yards in between the tackles and can also catch the ball out of the backfield. Chizik is known for his defensive game plans and I expect that he will have a good one this week. He will have to look to contain Nebraska QB Joe Ganz, and his two primary pass catchers Nate Swift and Todd Peterson. I’ve watched Nebraska enough to see that they have a tendency to give up on their run game, even though Marlon Lucky is a talented back. If they do so this week, I think that will play into the hands of ISU. Expect a great ballgame in Aimes on Saturday.


Georgia Tech +2

Understand that I liked this game before Tommy Bowden got fired. Also understand that even though Bowden has been fired, I still like this game. I hear many talking about now that Bowden is gone that Clemson is going to just come out and give maximum effort this week and beat Georgia Tech. I have a couple of issues with that line of thinking. Shouldn’t have Clemson been playing with maximum effort EVERY week, even if they didn’t think their coach was the greatest. The fundamental problem with the Clemson program wasn’t just with their coaching staff, but rather the type of players they went about recruiting. What I mean by that is that Bowden and company looked strictly at stop watches, bench presses and didn’t put enough emphasis into a player’s mental toughness (or lack their of) or football I.Q. Just because Bowden is gone (and also their offensive coordinator Rob Spence who was a big part of their staff), doesn’t mean things are going to change immediately. I like this game mainly because I think Georgia Tech is one of the top teams in the country that no one is talking about. Georgia Tech Head Coach Paul Johnson has done an excellent job so far this season. I fully expect him to have his team focused on Saturday, not underestimating Clemson nor do I think they will be distracted by the situation. Johnson has been hammering them all week about staying focused and playing their game. Don’t kid yourself if you put a lot of stock into last week’s struggles vs. Gardner Webb as Georgia Tech rested a bunch of key starters. QB Tyler Nesbitt will play this week and he is a key cog to Georgia Tech’s triple option attack. RB Johnathon Dwyer (6.6 ypc., 4 TD’s) and WR Demaryius Thomas (18 rec., 2 TD’s) are big time playmakers and should have success vs. a Clemson defensive unit that could struggle with the option attack. Georgia Tech’s front four should put a lot of pressure on young Clemson QB Willie Korn, and it also helps that RB C.J. Spiller will miss this game due to injury. Expect an initial emotional outburst from Clemson, but ultimately Georgia Tech’s even keel will be the difference.


Virginia Tech +2

I’m not sure when this team is going to start getting some respect, but for the time being I don’t really mind. This Virginia Tech team continues to fly under the radar as one of the most underrated teams in the country. What is especially impressive about this team is that they don’t really have any superstars, with possibly the exception of their QB Tyrod Taylor who’d I’d say is a star at best. This team thrives on running the football, good decision making and mobility from their quarterback, excellent special teams and solid tackling from their defense. They do things the old fashion way. Sure they don’t make a lot of the highlight reels with 60 yard touchdowns, heck Taylor’s only thrown for one touchdown the entire season. You have to throw the stats out the window when you evaluate this team, to truly appreciate them you have to see them play. I expect the Virginia Tech defense to neutralize the Boston College running game and put a lot of pressure on QB Chris Crane. Crane’s mobility presents problems for some opposing defenses, but Virginia Tech has speedy linebackers who will keep Crane from running a whole lot. This will ultimately mean that Crane will be forced to make a lot of throws, and in watching his performances against Georgia Tech and UCF, I think he really struggles vs. athletic defenses. I understand that Virginia Tech has struggled historically at Boston College and I also realize that playing on Virginia Tech goes against the ol’ ranked road opponent vs. unranked home favorite theory (in that most people take the home unranked favorite). Those two factors aren’t enough to keep me of Virginia Tech here; I have to trust what my eyes have seen and go with this Frank Beamer led squad on Saturday.


Arizona PK

It continues to amaze me how much emphasis people put into a team’s performance one week, when they have six or seven week’s worth of performance to fall back on. What I mean by that is that everyone seemed to love Arizona last week, in what was a tough spot for them on the road vs. an improved Stanford team. I think they may have even got caught looking ahead to this week’s game against Cal at home. Arizona tends to play much better at home than they do on the road, especially at night. Arizona QB Willie Tuitama (66% comp., 13 TD’s/ 2 INT) is quietly having one of the better seasons of any quarterback in the conference. He has grown up a lot since first starting as a true freshman and has flourished in the Sonny Dyke’s spread offense. Arizona has two of the best playmakers in the entire conference in KR/ WR Mike Thomas (36 rec., 3 TD’s) and TE Rob Gronkowski (5 TD’s). Call me crazy, but I think Gronkowski is one of the hardest players to cover in all of college football. He has the size and strength to bully an opposing defensive back, but also the speed to run past a linebacker. He missed the first three games of the season and since becoming healthy has really helped inject some explosion into the Arizona offense. He also helps create one-on-one coverage for Terrell Turner (28 rec., 1 TD’s) and Delashaun Dean (28 rec., 2 TD’s). If Cal tries to drop back in coverage, look for Arizona to hand the ball to RB Nick Grigsby (5.8 ypc, 9 TD’s). Cal’s strength on defense is with their linebackers, but their secondary is susceptible to giving up big plays. It appears that Cal’s best player, RB Javhid Best, will play this week but keep in mind he is coming off hyper extended left arm injury. It also appears that QB Nate Longshore will start for Cal, who is coming off a slipped disk in his back. Everyone is ripping Arizona’s defense because of last week’s performance vs. Stanford, but expect an entirely different attitude this week in a game Arizona has had circled since the beginning of the season.


Maryland +1.5

Maryland is a team that you have to pick your spots with. Some weeks they lose to Middle Tennessee State and Virginia and other weeks they go on the road and beat ranked teams like when they beat Clemson. They have had a week off since their loss vs. Virginia, a loss that doesn’t look all that bad since it does appear that Virginia has turned things around since the beginning of the season. Maryland QB Chris Turner usually plays well in big games vs. ranked opponents and I expect that he will do so again this week. The week off has also helped RB Da’Rel Scott (5.4 ypc., 4 TD’s) heal a bit and I anticipate that Ralph Friedgen will continue to give carries to Davin Meggett (son of Dave Meggett) and converted QB Josh Portis. These three running backs give Maryland excellent depth and also help create one on one match ups for WR’s Darrius Heyward-Bay (22.9 ypr., 3 TD’s) and Danny Oquendo. Oh yeah, and you know how I mentioned how impressed I am with Gronwkowski from Arizona? Well one of his little brothers plays for Maryland and he’s a good player in his own right (13 rec., 2 TD’s). I just haven’t seen the same type of team defense from Wake Forest that I did the previous two seasons. Granted they have some good individual players in that unit, but I’ve seen teams like Navy run up and down the field on them. I also have seen weaknesses with the Wake Forest offense this year. QB Riley Skinner hasn’t seemed the same since his shoulder injury last year, as he rarely attempts to stretch the field. This has put a lot of pressure on the Wake Forest running game, which doesn’t have a back averaging over more than 3.1 ypc. Also, if Wake Forest kicker, Wake’s best offensive weapon, has any lingering effects from his quad injury, it’s going to put a big strain on the Wake Forest offense. Maryland will have to keep their eye on WR D.J. Boldin on Saturday, but if they can contain him and move the ball consistently on offense I think they can give Wake Forest a real run.


South Carolina +3

Remember when after South Carolina lost on the road to Vanderbilt and then a close one at home to Georgia how we all wrote South Carolina off for the season? Well, someone forgot to tell South Carolina and the ol’ ball coach that their season was over. Since those two games, South Carolina has won four games in a row, including two impressive road wins at Mississippi and at Kentucky. I mentioned the “name game” earlier in my write-up and what you have to understand that when you strip the names from these two teams and just break down the components of the team and their coaching, there’s not a whole lot of difference between these two teams. People have to get over the fact that LSU is just not the same team as last year. They also have to get over their reasoning that “there’s no way LSU can lose this game, they have to win!” It’s exactly that type of thinking that cause 80% of the public to be on this game, yet the line is trending downward. South Carolina has one of the best defenses in the nation; they have a defense that not many people talk about. LSU has one of the most overrated defenses in the country, a defense that many people like to give them too much credit for. South Carolina has a coach that has been through it all and who I feel through being humbled has become an even better coach. LSU has a riverboat gambler for a coach, who continually shows in games where he’s not the “bully” that he will be out coached. South Carolina has All-SEC WR Kenny McKinley back healthy and I can tell you that there isn’t a guy that means more to an offensive unit than McKinley does to South Carolina’s offense. South Carolina also one of the better running backs in the conference in veteran Mike Davis (354 yds., 4.1 ypc.) and one of the best tight ends in Jared Cook (26 rec., 1 TD). Also, in McKinley’s absence, young pups Moe Brown, Jason Barnes and Deon LeCorn have emerged. Factor in that QB Stephen Garcia is starting to play a lot more along with Chris Smelley and it makes South Carolina a tough team to game plan for. I gave more credit to the LSU defense than they deserve, and part of the reason I drank the cool aid is I forgot to take note that their impressive performances were vs. Appy. St., North Texas and Auburn. They gave up 24 points to Mississippi State for goodness sakes! C’mon people! LSU’s offense has to settle on a quarterback and until they do so, they won’t be able to reach their full potential. They have playmaking WR’s and a good tailback in Charles Scott (who incidentally did limp off the field at the end of last week’s game vs. Florida), but this offense will need better play from their offensive line and quarterback position. Do you really want to have a close game in the fourth quarter and be on the road, against Steve Spurrier and his underrated defense? Really think about that for a second before you answer. South Carolina brings it on Saturday night and gives LSU all they can handle.

GLTA

[pags11]

bearmz,

glad will be on so many together and only opposed in one...yeah, glad we made it through last week...thanks man...BOL to you as well...

dchecks,

thank you sir...to be very honest with you I never really had a lot of success playing totals...I stick to what I know...GL to you this week..

[VegasDave]

So pags, you aren't counting BYU as a play?

Good luck this week, lets get it back!

[pags11]

usckingsfan,

why would I not count BYU as a play?...of course I am, half unit play as I've stated earlier...I know you haven't followed me that much but I never include any weeknight plays in my write-ups...I usually do a separate write-up in it's own thread on the game (which I have done earlier in this thread)...hope this clears things up for you...

[awhitejackson]

Always love the writeups Pags....This weeks slogan "stay away from the name game"....one good tip at a time and I'll be livin large soon enough.... on the AZ, SC, VT, and GT games with you...will look into the others...GL

[tobycsh39]

Hey pags, maybe its because I'm drunk, lol, but I thought you always posted your write ups on Thursday nights/ Friday mornings...... Any reason for the change, I know you are very superstitious, just wondering? Anyways you convinced me on SC and it will be a half unit play. Thanks for the hard work man and you know we appreciate it. Learning alot from you bro and I hope the good luck continues.

[clowncar]

Pleasant surprise to see your writeups a day early.

Wish you much success this week , pags.

Wondering if Duke is still a good play at +4 in your opinion.

[Miser]

I'm on all your picks. In Pags we trust!

[jackpot269]

Pags good luck this week. Most of your picks this week were no plays for me but if you are on them ive got to give them a closer look!! GL everyone and lets cash in!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[SoonerBS]

Let's get this out of the way first.
Anyone who wouldn't settle for 3-4 on a 'bad' week hasn't been in this game very long.

pags- I did a little handicapping of my own this week.
Happy to say that VPI, Maryland, Duke, So carolina, Iowa State, and Arizona made my list.
I remained concerned about the GT-Clem game because there may be some surprises sprung on GT with the new coach and Bowden and the OC both gone. Plus death valley is a hard place to play.
GL this week. lol- I'm sure you'll settle for 6-1.

Hey, Bull, I don't see any surprises happening in this play from Clemson's side. For one, Johnson's offense is of the type that it does not react to defensive formations. The defenses defending the triple option have to react to the triple option not vice-versa unlike a lot of the new spread offenses that change calls at the line based on what they see in the defensive formations.

Secondly, because of the complexity of defending against the triple option, I don't think Clemson has had the time to do anything this week other than work on defending against GT. I don't look for anything new coming from the offensive side. Plus, we are still talking about an offense that is in disarray with Spiller out and switching to a new QB.

I'm like Pags in that I got this line for $200 at +2 Sunday night before the announcement came. I'm so confident that GT win SU that I went back after the announcement and bought 3 UNITS on the ML at -135 . . . . .

[taurus]

OK Ok - with den and pags both recommending GT, I have become convinced.
I don't much like Clemson to begin with.
GL all.

[icemantbi]

Great write-up Pags. On em again this week.

Not too sure yet if I will play BYU tonight, something is telling me to stay away. To me, it's almost a toss-up. But all your weekend plays look great as always.

[hoopster42]

pags, really like your write-ups, i lean to almost all of your plays, but i believe they are close to toss ups, good luck, i hope they all come through for you and your followers

[pags11]

awhitejackson,

I share what I know...thanks man...glad we will be on those games together...GL this week...

toby,

I posted the write-ups last night because I knew I'd be busy watching the BYU vs. TCU game...thanks for your well wishes, glad you are enjoying my write-ups and thoughts...GL bro...

clowncar,

thanks very much my friend...sorry I didn't get to this sooner regarding the Duke line...best of luck to you as well...

miser,

good to hear...thank you...GL this week...

jackpot,

thanks very much...GL on the games you did play...

soonerbs,

excellent thoughts here, thank you for chiming in...keep up the great work...congrats on TCU tonight...

taurus,

glad we will be on Georgia Tech together...BOL to you as week pal...

iceman,

great job laying off BYU, wasn't even close...good to hear you are confident in my weekend plays though...I appreciate it very much...GL this week...

hoopster,

thanks for your thoughts...GL bud...

[Thorpe]

Pags, I appreciate the write-up on the Arizona game but I think you are on the wrong side. You don't even mention Cal in the write-up. You say that people are writing off Arizona due to one game vs Stanford but they also had a poor game vs New Mexico. The common denominator in those two losses was their D Line getting pushed around. Well, Cal has a better O line than Stanford and New Mexico, plus they have 3 explosive RBs to run through the holes. Arizona was able to compile some great numbers in their 4 wins, but Idaho, UCLA, Washington and Toledo are not murderers row.

You said look at a teams whole season, and in Cal's case, everyone is writing them off because of the Maryland game. They lost that game, but it was a Noon start in the EST plus humidity. Cal did nothing the first 3 quarters yet they almost came back. the rest of the season they have been very consistent and have had good results. Over the last few years, Cal has been a .500 team ATS on the road. They had a good win LY at Oregon. They lost a few on the road at the end of the year when they went into their swoon after the Ore St game.

Why would Arizona look past Stanford to the Cal game? Arizona beat Cal last year and lost to Stanford. And if they did look past Stanford to Cal, then why won't they look past Cal to USC?

Also, people always assume that college teams will be angry about a close loss and play better the next week. I have looked into this, and I find the opposite is the case. Teams that suffer a heart-breaking loss usually play a poor game the next week. (In the NFL, teams do tend to bounce back after a bad loss).

I completely agree about Gronkowski. He actually grew up near me then went to play his senior year in Pennsyvania where the competition is tougher. Stanford was able to shut him down last week using a double team and I expect Cal to do the same. Arizona only ran for 20 yards LY against Cal, and Cal's Run D is stronger this year.

I am a Cal alum but I am not overly biased. I am supremely confident in Cal this week because I loved them before I saw the line, and literally 80% of posters on the other forum have Arizona as one of their picks. I have not yet seen 1 poster take Cal over there. We both know what that means.

[Thorpe]

One more thing, the Maryland Gronkowski is the older brother.

[daneblazer]

good luck this week

going with all dogs this week huh?

[yisman]

pags, you might as well go moneyline with those picks.

[Lout84]

A lot of these picks seem like toss up's to me. But, BOL this week pags!

[Jimmydafreak]

Best of luck buddy!!!

FREAK OUT!!!

[Tigers1230]

I am always a little curious at your picks Pags but then they hit. I have been weary but i agree with the SC play. I also took GT early this week. I don't know about the Cal and Duke game, but best of luck to you.