Pags' Plays 10/18

[CaptainFurFace]

I got GT +2 earlier today at Sportfanatik.com (the ugly stepchild of sportbook.com) even after the announcement of Bowden's bounce.

If you haven't been watching GT all season, shame on you. They've been money in the bank all season, ESPECIALLY as underdogs. Bad cappers, bad!!!

Thanks Pags!

[SoonerBS]

Pags,
looks like a tough last week put you on a bunch of dogs this week - Good luck!
Here are my picks, let me know your thoughts!
fsu -11
navy +3
psu -23.5
ok st -17
hou -12

Pags will answer for himself, but these plays are great situational plays this week . . . . . the fact that they are also dogs just makes them that much better . . . . .

[j0esilly]

Pags will answer for himself, but these plays are great situational plays this week . . . . . the fact that they are also dogs just makes them that much better . . . . .

I respect pags picks but looks like losing last week is in his head a little for this weeks picks, just my opinion

[tobycsh39]

I seriously doubt that one losing week is in his head for this week. 10-4 in 2 weeks, come on man. Good luck pags, still waiting to see the rest!

[abc]

I am also waiting to see what other games you're looking at.

[schammer]

3/5 of pags plays i can get better lines at so I dunno what all these wanks are on about

[pags11]

gremlin,

thank you very much...I appreciate your understanding as I am doing my best to post my plays as soon as they are matched but unfortunately I have a life and a business that gets in the way sometimes...thanks for your understanding...

gopherbroke,

thanks for your responses to these guys...I missed them coming in last week when I posted LSU +4 when +6 and +6.5 were widely available...I post the plays I get as soon as I can but you don't seem to mention that often times I am posting worse numbers...I'm sure you'll agree that it goes both ways...I also find it interesting that in only two of my forty-nine plays this year has the number actually come into play...one was UGA vs. South Carolina where most people with South Carolina pushed and didn't lose...the other was last week with USC when I only recommended playing USC up to 28...funny that no one seems to mention that either...often times winning picks are winning picks regardless...you also understand that I'm doing this for free, where some others don't seem to understand that...I appreciate your support my friend...

WSU_tbone,

Georgia Tech actually opened at +4 at bookmaker, but I appreciate your response...

cards,

thank you for that, good job shopping around...

perfecttrader,

I appreciate your support...GL to you as well...

ky crnel,

great job securing the games...glad we will be on them together...thanks very much...

jimmymo,

my longstanding friend...you have been a great handicapper for a very long time...I appreciate you coming into my thread this week...keep up the good work yourself...

porterkid,

glad we are on Georgia Tech together...I put in all of these offers last night as well, when I got a moment to check my matchbook account I posted everything...thanks for recognizing that...

soonerbs,

I appreciate you saying that...you continue to have a great year and am glad that we are on some of the same plays...keep up the great work bud...

wsu_tbone,

you are 100% correct...thanks man...

soonerbs,

I would recommend Georgia Tech up to -2.5, yes...good spot for them, especially with all that has transpired of late...

joesilly,

I know that you are fairly new to the site, but I play usually around 75% dogs...the previous three or so weeks, there were some favorites that I liked...really I'm just trying to pick games that I think can win, regardless of the fav/dog factor...

regarding your games, I have a lean to the other side of FSU...at +14 I had a lean to SMU, but feel it is a no play at the current number...slightest of leans to Navy...no opinion on the other two...

captain,

outstanding analysis regarding Georgia Tech...glad we will be on them together...GL this week...

toby,

as I'm sure you understand, being a winner long term means there are still weeks we take losses...that is why you are going to continue to grow as a capper...thanks for your support my friend...

abc,

I'll be releasing two more as soon as my offers get fully matched...

alexda,

thanks very much pal...GL to you as well...

schammer,

yeah, you are absolutely right...thanks man...

[pags11]

edu,

I post all plays that I make here...I usually don't make ML plays...GL to you...

rich,

I do too!

Lout,

thanks brother...BOL to you as well this week...

abc,

yes it was...planning on it!...

[The Seer]

I'm on GT too. A team can't have any distractions when facing the mid line option that they are not used to seeing. Assignment football is extremely important for the defense and anything that would divert attention this week is a killer. The only concern here is if Clemson players are so relieved that they play over their heads. I was on a team in college where alot of the team walked out on the head coach after a loss. It was a circus and we got killed the next game. I don't think the focus here will be on GT.

[pags11]

the seer,

good thoughts here...that is a concern, but Clemson may also come out with what I refer to as false enthusiasm that could die down after the first ten minutes...GL man...

[pags11]

WEEKNIGHT PLAY:

BYU -2 (+100) for 1/2 unit

**Major disclaimer...I am letting you know that I am making this play, but I can't highly recommend this play as my head says it's not a good play (but I have to go with my gut here)......I am going to give you all the reasons not to make this play...weeknight road favorites do not tend to do well...TCU will be extremely fired up for this game, the crowd will be going nuts...TCU is extremely well coached and they defend the run very well...many sharp players are also on TCU and the line has moved 2 points since my offer was matched, even though 80% of the public is on TCU...

that all being said I have to trust my gut here and play BYU...I believe the key to this game is BYU's deep passing game vs. a suspect TCU secondary...there is no doubt that TCU will contain BYU's running game, but TCU frequently leaves their defensive backs on "islands", and teams like SDSU, Stanford and CSU were not able utilize the vertical passing game to expose TCU's weakness on defense...Max Hall to Austin Collie is as good of a deep threat combo as there is in the country, and WR Michael Reed helps move the chains...TCU also has problems defending good tight ends and BYU's Dennis Pitta is terrific...on defense, BYU should be able to contain the TCU running game, and with Jackson coming off a terrible outing, I see them starting QB Andy Dalton...Dalton is coming off a knee injury and while he is a good option QB, he has yet to throw for a TD this year...if BYU gets down early, they have the ability to come back in this game...if TCU gets down early, I'm not sure the same thing can be said...I've watched the last two games between these two teams and I've seen BYU expose TCU's weaknesses...lastly, although Gary Patterson is a fine head coach, I think Bronco Mendenhall is arguably the most underrated coach in the country...he will have his boys prepared for this very, very, very hard fought game...

[madworld]

I like the BYU pick pags, although I will not bet it. If you are a true Utah fan u will not cheer for their rivals, which is the cougars. This situation is kind of similar to Utah's a couple of years back when they busted the BCS. I wasn't into sportsbetting back then, but it seemed like the 3 weeks prior to playing the cougars the public was against Utah. In fact everytime I watched ESPN College Gameday, every Saturday morning, Heirbstreet was always picking Utah's opponent for the upset of the week. Anyways, I believe that TCU will be very hyped for this game but I don't think that will last with Hall behind center. He just makes things happen! GL this week

[Always Somethin']

BYU is down to a PK, thanks for the picks so far this week Pags.

[DrLuck]

Like the card so far pags... I haven't had the chance to watch Arizona this season. Their numbers look good, but they should considering their competition...Guess your looking for a strong effort coming this week cause Stanford pretty well dominated the game and had 3 turnovers to boot and still won as 7pt dogs. Of course they probably didn't show up and Cal is nothing special so I'll be interested to see your write-up. What's your angle on GT? Is it cause Clemson is in shambles? Some articles I've read seem to think their going to come out fired up. The players seem re-charged since Bowden is gone. I just feel Clemson will be pissed and want to prove a point. He was a major cancer to the team. Korn getting his first start is the scary part, that's the kicker... Plus GT has been solid and with a great coach... Will be riding with you on the rest as I had those games circled then seen you liked them seeled the deal. Need to convince me on Zona though...GL this week

[gopherbroke]

O.K., someone's going to ask at some point, but what do you play that GT game to? Most now have it -2 to -2.5. I know it was OFB at many shops until late last night/early this a.m. and some never saw + numbers.

[DrLuck]

O.K., someone's going to ask at some point, but what do you play that GT game to? Most now have it -2 to -2.5. I know it was OFB at many shops until late last night/early this a.m. and some never saw + numbers.

think pags said -2.5 up above

[Superman455]

Keep up the work pags. I look forward to you insight and breakdowns of the games each week. What the "HATERS" fail to realize is that is there choice to follow you or to not.....Again thanks for all your hard work.

[bosterosoy]

Great picks Pags. Love V tech and BYU, put a big chunk of my roll on them.

Remember, if you only got 5 haters, better get 5 more before the end of the season.

[cashflow50]

gl on your plays this week pags. so far so good

[clowncar]

decided to lay off the byu game pags.

Card looks awesome as usual and enjoy all your thoughts on this Beautiful game of college football.

Best of luck this week , but I doubt you need much.

[j0esilly]

joesilly,

I know that you are fairly new to the site, but I play usually around 75% dogs...the previous three or so weeks, there were some favorites that I liked...really I'm just trying to pick games that I think can win, regardless of the fav/dog factor...

regarding your games, I have a lean to the other side of FSU...at +14 I had a lean to SMU, but feel it is a no play at the current number...slightest of leans to Navy...no opinion on the other two...

Pags,

you are right that I am new to the site and i had no idea that 75% of your plays are on the doggies
i do value ur insights on the games and i appreciate any feedback, so thank you!

i also like ur play on byu, my gut says the same thing.

[pags11]

PLAY # 6:

Maryland +1.5 (+100) for 3 units

[pags11]

madworld,

typically I would never make a play like this, but I feel strongly enough to do so here...I appreciate your analysis...

always somethin',

I can definitely understand why people are playing TCU...and thanks for pointing out that there is a better number available than the one I posted, as some here just like to mention when I get a better number...GL to you this week...

dr. luck,

I'll have thoughts for you on both games...with the BYU game taking place on Thursday, I'll probably do my write-up tomorrow night...GL my friend...

gopher,

looks like to is ready available as of now...most I would play it up to is 2.5...

superman,

you are oh so right pal...I appreciate your support...GL this week...

bosterosoy,

glad we will be on those two games together...you make a very good point...appreciate you having my back...BOL this week...

cashflow,

as always, I greatly appreciate your kind words...we will try to do better than last week...GL bud...

clowncar,

thank you bud for stopping by...I thank you for all your thoughts on these games and greatly value our conversations each week...GL to you as well this week...

joesilly,

no problem at all bud, I knew that was the case...I just don't want you to really think that I'm in my head, I'm just trying to pick winners man...GL to you...

[pico]

PLAY #1:

Georgia Tech +2 (+100) For 3 Units

wow, pags must be the greatest line shopper in the world. this is the best line right before it moved a shit load. if this is real, i am impressed.

[accuscoresucks]

huge move but
clemson is strong at home offense just waiting to destroy someone

[pags11]

picoman,

the line actually opened at 4 at bookmaker...but I do appreciate the compliment...

acc,

you could be right, but I respectfully disagree...

[clowncar]

wow, pags must be the greatest line shopper in the world. this is the best line right before it moved a shit load. if this is real, i am impressed.

No offense sir , but you are completely out of line. Pags had ample time to get the Georgia Tech game at that number.

I know people who got the game at a better number than that.

What you fail to realize is that pags liked this game PRIOR to the news that Bowden would no longer be coaching the Tigers. I know because he discussed with me reasons that he liked GT on sunday morning/afternoon prior to line release.

I failed to bet this fast enough myself and I am now stuck deciding if I want to lay the points , when previously I was going to be taking a fg or playing the moneyline at nice plus money. However , I don't begrudge anyone else who did BETTER work than me or was more fortunate than me in getting the best number.

Instead of making a ridiculous attack on the man , that those of us who talk to him regularly know for a fact is false , maybe you should look into the mirror and ask yourself if you are doing enough to get the best possible numbers for yourself.

Good capping is only half the battle and successful people in sports betting realize the importance of getting the best numbers and go through exhaustive lengths in that vain.

There is a chance that I have misinterpreted your post and you meant only to compliment his good work and if so I apologize for calling you out. If not , instead of wasting our time with nonsense , take some time to see how a winning sports bettor approaches the business.

[Always Somethin']

Pags did you watch the TCU vs CSU game? TCU blew deep coverage almost every play and the CSU QB could not hit a throw no matter what. I HATE weeknight plays but BYU loves the deep ball and should be able to make some big plays on TCU.

[pags11]

always somethin',

yes, I watched every play of the entire game...I completely agree with your analysis...

[pags11]

clowncar,

I appreciate your post...thank you sir...I can't ever picoman being a complete dick to me, so I tried to take his post just for what it was, although I definitely sensed the sarcasm...thanks again...

[pags11]

PLAY NUMBER SEVEN:

South Carolina +3 (-107) for 3 units

[tobycsh39]

Good luck this week pags, like them all except a little skeptical about south carolina playing a pissed off Lsu team, definitely be looking for the write up. I dont know what the big damn deal is about the Georgia Tech line. I mean, the line was widely available at Matchbook since Sunday night at +2. I'm not even a sharp better and I got mine in before it changed. Quit bitching and lets move to gambling this week. We are all on one side, trying to beat the books, and people want to discuss mute points over and over again. Holy shit, either come in to take advantage of the plays and knowledge or dont come in. Whether or not you agree or disagree with the picks, it is your opinion, but don't keep talking about line shopping when a mediocre at best handicapper like myself can get Georgia Tech at +2. Maybe research some games yourself and you will get better lines. Don't wait for other players to post their picks then bitch because you can't get the same lines they do. Sorry for this pags, just annoying the shit out of me the way some people act.

[tab]

PLAY NUMBER SEVEN:

South Carolina +3 (-107) for 3 units

very solid play. I also like it on the ML +130

[jagermeister1]

Good luck this week pags, like them all except a little skeptical about south carolina playing a pissed off Lsu team, definitely be looking for the write up. I dont know what the big damn deal is about the Georgia Tech line. I mean, the line was widely available at Matchbook since Sunday night at +2. I'm not even a sharp better and I got mine in before it changed. Quit bitching and lets move to gambling this week. We are all on one side, trying to beat the books, and people want to discuss mute points over and over again. Holy shit, either come in to take advantage of the plays and knowledge or dont come in. Whether or not you agree or disagree with the picks, it is your opinion, but don't keep talking about line shopping when a mediocre at best handicapper like myself can get Georgia Tech at +2. Maybe research some games yourself and you will get better lines. Don't wait for other players to post their picks then bitch because you can't get the same lines they do. Sorry for this pags, just annoying the shit out of me the way some people act.

Right on, Toby. Mods, can we make this individual post into a sticky?

Pags, I'm with Toby here. Except for the South Carolina pick, I'm feeling all your plays this week, especially Maryland. That team has some real talent. Looking forward to the play #7 write-up. Thanks for the good work, and good luck to you this week.

[strictlywinners]

PLAY #4:

Iowa St. +5.5 (+103) For 3 Units

This is your best play they will win the game, take the moneyline also.