College Football Betting: The Year So Far
College Football Betting: The Year So Far
If you're not happy with the college football rankings, just wait a week and they're bound to change. Reminiscent of last year's topsy-turvy college gridiron polls, the 2008 season is off to the same start after four of the nation's Top 10 schools all met their demise this past week, including perennial stalwarts USC and Florida. Suddenly it's the Big 12 teams sporting the biggest targets on their backs.
Is this the way it’s going to be from now on?
Just like last year, the top college football seeds are dropping like lead balloons. Look who lost in Week 5:
And on it went. Top 25 teams were 9-6 straight up and 6-9 against the spread last week versus unranked FBS opponents. Some of those upsets were not that big of a surprise – No. 17 East Carolina’s bubble had already burst before Saturday’s 41-24 loss to Houston (+10½). But USC and Florida were a combined 4-1 ATS and playing at a very high level going into Week 5.
This is familiar territory for the Gators. At this time last year, they were ranked No. 3 until losing 20-17 to Auburn as 17-point home favorites. The Tigers turned out to be better than they showed during the non-conference portion of the schedule. Auburn wasn’t alone: Ranked teams were 11-7 SU and 5-13 ATS against unranked opposition during Week 5 of the 2007 season.
It wasn’t just the switch to conference play that tripped up the top seeds last year. They continued to lose during the course of the regular season, all the way up to the end – the BCS championship game was going to be West Virginia vs. Missouri until both teams lost their Week 14 matchups. We might very well see the same “Any Given Saturday” theme play out this year.
For now, the dogs are barking softly at 113-104-4 ATS, not quite enough to make a profit at 52.07 percent. Away teams, on the other hand, are into the black at 115-102-4 ATS (53 percent). Combining the two and betting on the road dogs squeezed the books for even more money at 80-69-3 ATS (53.69 percent). The totals have done nothing for handicappers; the over is 113-105 (51.83 percent) thus far.
Aside from all the chalk being eaten, the other major betting storyline of the 2008 season continues to be the softening of the Big Ten Conference. The Big Ten went into Week 5 with a 13-17-1 ATS record and egg on its face, thanks to high-profile losses like Ohio State’s 35-3 mauling at USC. The shame spread to Purdue on Saturday when the Boilermakers (+2.5) dropped a 38-21 decision to a Notre Dame Fighting Irish team that had been struggling on offense up to that point.
As for the Buckeyes, they fell to 0-4 ATS (4-1 SU) on the season with a 34-21 win over the visiting Minnesota Golden Gophers (+20). The Gophers scored two touchdowns in the fourth quarter for the matador cover. Big Ten underdogs went on to finish Week 5 at 2-3 SU and 4-1 ATS against the big boys of the conference. The Iowa Hawkeyes continued to prove their mediocrity by losing 22-17 at home to Northwestern (+9½). And the Big House proved too much for the No. 8 Wisconsin Badgers, as the Michigan Wolverines (+4½) came back from 19 points down to win 27-25 and cash in for the first time this season.
While the Big Ten’s decline is nothing new, the SEC is in unfamiliar waters after the losses by Georgia and Florida. The Bulldogs can at least say they lost to a very strong Alabama team – the Tide moved up from No. 13 to No. 2 in the polls after winning 41-30 as 6½-point road dogs. But Florida’s 31-30 defeat at the hands of visiting Mississippi State (+23) was right out of the blue.
It might be time to give the unofficial conference crown back to the Big 12. The Oklahoma Sooners have taken over the No. 1 spot in the polls at 4-0 SU and 3-0 ATS. No. 21 Oklahoma State has the same record, while the No. 5 Texas Longhorns are a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS after goring the Arkansas Razorbacks 52-10. That’s the same final score from the Texas victories over Florida Atlantic and Rice. Welcome to the low majors, SEC.
If you're not happy with the college football rankings, just wait a week and they're bound to change. Reminiscent of last year's topsy-turvy college gridiron polls, the 2008 season is off to the same start after four of the nation's Top 10 schools all met their demise this past week, including perennial stalwarts USC and Florida. Suddenly it's the Big 12 teams sporting the biggest targets on their backs.
Is this the way it’s going to be from now on?
Just like last year, the top college football seeds are dropping like lead balloons. Look who lost in Week 5:
- No. 1 USC (-24)
- No. 3 Georgia (-6½)
- No. 4 Florida (-23)
- No. 8 Wisconsin (-4½)
And on it went. Top 25 teams were 9-6 straight up and 6-9 against the spread last week versus unranked FBS opponents. Some of those upsets were not that big of a surprise – No. 17 East Carolina’s bubble had already burst before Saturday’s 41-24 loss to Houston (+10½). But USC and Florida were a combined 4-1 ATS and playing at a very high level going into Week 5.
This is familiar territory for the Gators. At this time last year, they were ranked No. 3 until losing 20-17 to Auburn as 17-point home favorites. The Tigers turned out to be better than they showed during the non-conference portion of the schedule. Auburn wasn’t alone: Ranked teams were 11-7 SU and 5-13 ATS against unranked opposition during Week 5 of the 2007 season.
It wasn’t just the switch to conference play that tripped up the top seeds last year. They continued to lose during the course of the regular season, all the way up to the end – the BCS championship game was going to be West Virginia vs. Missouri until both teams lost their Week 14 matchups. We might very well see the same “Any Given Saturday” theme play out this year.
For now, the dogs are barking softly at 113-104-4 ATS, not quite enough to make a profit at 52.07 percent. Away teams, on the other hand, are into the black at 115-102-4 ATS (53 percent). Combining the two and betting on the road dogs squeezed the books for even more money at 80-69-3 ATS (53.69 percent). The totals have done nothing for handicappers; the over is 113-105 (51.83 percent) thus far.
Aside from all the chalk being eaten, the other major betting storyline of the 2008 season continues to be the softening of the Big Ten Conference. The Big Ten went into Week 5 with a 13-17-1 ATS record and egg on its face, thanks to high-profile losses like Ohio State’s 35-3 mauling at USC. The shame spread to Purdue on Saturday when the Boilermakers (+2.5) dropped a 38-21 decision to a Notre Dame Fighting Irish team that had been struggling on offense up to that point.
As for the Buckeyes, they fell to 0-4 ATS (4-1 SU) on the season with a 34-21 win over the visiting Minnesota Golden Gophers (+20). The Gophers scored two touchdowns in the fourth quarter for the matador cover. Big Ten underdogs went on to finish Week 5 at 2-3 SU and 4-1 ATS against the big boys of the conference. The Iowa Hawkeyes continued to prove their mediocrity by losing 22-17 at home to Northwestern (+9½). And the Big House proved too much for the No. 8 Wisconsin Badgers, as the Michigan Wolverines (+4½) came back from 19 points down to win 27-25 and cash in for the first time this season.
While the Big Ten’s decline is nothing new, the SEC is in unfamiliar waters after the losses by Georgia and Florida. The Bulldogs can at least say they lost to a very strong Alabama team – the Tide moved up from No. 13 to No. 2 in the polls after winning 41-30 as 6½-point road dogs. But Florida’s 31-30 defeat at the hands of visiting Mississippi State (+23) was right out of the blue.
It might be time to give the unofficial conference crown back to the Big 12. The Oklahoma Sooners have taken over the No. 1 spot in the polls at 4-0 SU and 3-0 ATS. No. 21 Oklahoma State has the same record, while the No. 5 Texas Longhorns are a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS after goring the Arkansas Razorbacks 52-10. That’s the same final score from the Texas victories over Florida Atlantic and Rice. Welcome to the low majors, SEC.