My Week 3 Plays

**thegeeksheet** · 09-12-08, 12:39 PM

Rice - Vandy write up

07:00PM 107 Rice Owls
Saturday 09/13/2008 108 Vanderbilt Commodores 8.0

This is a little tricky to figure out, as Rice has put up obscene numbers thus far (49 ppg and 448 ypg) but vs terrible defensive competition (allowing 43 ppg and 450 ypg), and Vandy’s defense has been a rock (allowing 15 ppg and 330 ypg) vs average to above average offenses (Mi(Oh) and South Carolina). My inclination is that the stronger defensive team, which has displayed results vs stronger offensive competition, should prevail which is supported by our models which predict 20-23 points for Rice. Despite Rice’s gaudy numbers, they are actually -0.5 ypr and ypa worse than average as they have faced defenses that would allow 5.0 ypr and 7.6 ypa. They won’t be so lucky here as they get a stout Vandy defense allowing 330 ypg and only 3.5 ypr and 5.9 ypa. Rice was a pass 1st offense last year averaging nearly 300 yards in the air, and by all accounts will get the strength of Vandy’s defense (secondary), and I expect Rice to struggle mightily in this game (Vandy returns their entire 2 deep roster in the secondary from last year, although a couple of them are listed as questionable) My math projects 330 yards offense (111 on the ground and 220 in the air) and 5.1 yppl. That is pretty in line with our models and supports that 17-24 point total for the Owls.

Rice has been getting torched in the air allowing 300+ yards passing to both SMU and Memphis (to the tune of 8.7 ypa), and while both those teams are better passing than Vandy, Vandy has been respectable this year thus far at +0.6 ypa better than average (although they’ve only averaged 5.6 ypa and less than 100 yds thru the air with a young un-proven offense which isn’t exactly awe inspiring). Vandy would like to get it done on the ground (they’ve averaged 46 rushing atts per game to only 14 pass atts thus far this year), and Rice has looked pretty decent vs the rush (allowing 3.2 ypr). That is skewed some by 50% of the results being to SMU (new June Jones chuck n duck), as Memphis ran for 150 yards (4.1 ypr) on top of nearly 400 yards passing.

There is a lot of extrapolation that has to occur here to get a sense of what will happen, which I believe is this: Vandy should perform better than Memphis on the ground (Vandy is +0.3 ypr) so assuming +0.3 on top of the Memphis 4.1 ypr, I think 4.5 ypr is fair for Vandy, assuming they average 40-45 atts (Memphis still had 37 atts), that should yield 180-200 yards on the ground, which should make passing against an already terrible Rice D even easier. I don’t see Vandy chucking it around like SMU, but they should easily average 7+ ypa (Rice is allowing 7.9 and Vandy averaging 6.2 at a +1.2 ypa clip), so with 65+/- plays Vandy should be good for pretty close to 400 yards (my math predicts 371 yards), but could definitely see 400/450+ (Memphis racked up 523 yards). All our models and my math support 30-37 points for Vandy, which given all the above seems logical.

Vandy starting RB Jeff Jennings is listed as questionable with a banged up shoulder, and their top returning WR from last year George Smith is out again this week and one of their other 2 deep WRs John Cole is now out with a bum knee, so there is a good bit of uncertainty with Vandy’s offense (although with only 3 returning starters coming into the season I guess one could say it isn’t any different now than in week 1). Still I think there is just way too much value to pass up here, but the question marks on Vandy’s offense and defense will keep me from making this a bigger play.
Vandy 35 Rice 22. Vandy is a #4 recommended play at -8

**thegeeksheet** · 09-12-08, 12:39 PM

Air Force - Houston write up

03:30PM 129 Air Force Falcons
Saturday 09/13/2008 130 Houston Cougars ***5.5
***Game Moved to Dallas, TX

***NOTE: As of Wednesday afternoon it is official that this game is being moved to Dallas, no word yet whether the kick time will change, but as of now is still at 3:30 EST. It has been removed from most betting boards, although where I have seen it back up the line has ranged from 3.5 – 2.5. They announced the location change Wednesday evening so my guess is this game will get back on the board later tonight or early Saturday. For purposes of our record, we are going to assume a Houston -3.0 line, and that the game will get played and will be back up on the majority of the books later today.

AF offense is averaging 5.0 ypr vs a Houston defense allowing 5.6 ypr (to offenses that are only averaging 4.5 ypr), which is skewed even more because 50% of that average is from week 1 vs Southern. Last week Houston gave up 379 on the ground to Oklahoma State (7.4 ypr). Houston had problems with good running teams last year giving up 175 yards rushing 5 times and it doesn’t appear they’ve figured out how to solve that problem thus far this year. My math predicts 6.9 ypr for AF, which should be good for easily 350 yards, and quite possibly 400 on the ground…honestly with that it doesn’t really matter to me how successful they can be in the air, but consider that Houston is also allowing 8.9 ypa even AF should have decent success when they decide to throw (that includes allowing nearly 6 ypa to Southern, so it wasn’t like a good OSU offense is skewing those numbers too bad). Conservatively give AF what Southern averaged (5.6 ypa) which is also what AF is averaging this year and 10-15 atts (we used 13) and we have a 450-500+ yard day for the Falcons. All our models and my math are within 4 points on predicted scores for AF at 29-33 points, which is very conservative if my mathematical production is accurate (which I feel it is and is in line with most our models). Even conservatively giving AF 55 rushing atts and 10 passing atts we are at 380 – 400 yards which is more inline with a 30 pts day.

Houston is going to get their’s, to be sure. AFs defense has looked pretty good this year; however Wyoming and South Utah aren’t in the same league as Houston. Houston’s offense looked very good last week vs an average OSU defense that hasn’t looked like it’s improved much off of last years unit that allowed 30 ppg and 441 ypg. While AFs defense is only allowing 3.4 yppl, I can’t pay much attention to that as it was vs a 1-AA team and an offense that is at best bottom 20 in D1. All my math and models predict 26-30 points for Houston with right at 400 yards offense. When I ran my analysis I weighted Houston’s offensive performance (and their opponents defensive performance) 75% - 25% as compared to AFs to try and over-compensate for the lack of meaningful defensive statistics for AF, even with that I only came up with 420 yards offense and 31 points.

It appears IKE is going to tee’off on Houston (and most of Texas) all day Saturday, so keep an eye out, although even with the weather backing the running team and dog is certainly the place to be. All in all, even ignoring weather, I think giving any points here to an AF team that should completely dominate the rushing game, and could possibly eclipse 400 yards rushing, is a mistake. Houston will score, and AFs lack of definitive data on defense scares me a little, but not enough to get me off this game where all 5 of our models and math have AF winning outright.

Note: depending on the weather situation, the over might not be a bad play, it is currently at 52, and all my models show 59-63 points…that said with a Hurricane looming, pay attention.

AF 32 Houston 28 Air Force is a #4 recommended play at +3

**thegeeksheet** · 09-12-08, 12:40 PM

TCU - Stanford write up

1:00PM*** 153 Stanford Cardinal
Saturday 09/13/2008 154 TCU Horned Frogs 14.0

***NOTE: As of Thursday morning the kick time has been moved up to 12pm local time because of Hurricane IKE. Double check the kick times for further updates later today.

In two games thus far (both vs decent Pac 10 teams), Stanford has managed to rack up an average of 266 ypg, a disproportionate allocation of TOs and ST play has allowed them to somehow average 26 ppg despite the abysmal performance on offense. Absent some more divine intervention that total should stop today as they get a very salty and talented TCU defense allowing 164 ypg and 5 ppg. TCU hasn’t really been tested yet, but historically have fielded very good defenses, with their strength defending the run (they are allowing 1.2 ypr this season). In fact in the last 6 years their defensive average for rushing yards per game is below 100 (92 ypg allowed) and below 3.0 ypr (2.6 ypr) which is bad news for Stanford team averaging a 66%-33% run-pass ratio (near 40 rushing atts / gm to 24 pass atts). My math in this game projects a mere 159 yards total offense for Stanford (2.7 yppl) but, that is skewed some by the level of competition TCU has faced, so I adjusted it to look at the 90-100% part of my projections (basically looking at the adjusted weighted averages based on each teams relative position to average then taking the top 10% of the projections for Stanford) I still only get 206 ypg at 3.4 yppl. TCU is certainly a stronger defense than Oregon State and probably as good if not better than Arizona State, so 206 ypg seems fair to me. Without adjusting for a more normalized TO/ ST distribution (basically assuming Stanford will continue to be the benefactor) I only get 11-14 pts for Stanford (when I adjusted to normal my projections called for 7-13 pts). Taking the most conservative of all approaches the most I can justify for Stanford is 200-220 yds offense and 11-14 pts. All our models are pretty aligned with Stanford at 11-15 pts so all signs seem to point for a tough day for the Trees.

Stanford’s defense has been pretty average thus far this year (allowing 481 ypg to teams that average 446 ypg), and pretty consistent with their weakness definitely being defending the pass (where they are allowing 8.3 ypa). That is skewed some by the fact that they have faced two better than average passing teams which look to pass 1st (they are combined to average 45 atts/ game this year). Stanford catches a bit of a break here as TCU is definitely a run 1st (and 2nd and really 3rd) team, where Stanford is a bit more respectable allowing 3.3 ypr. TCU is averaging 4.6 ypr & 245 rushing ypg this season, and they still have a statistical advantage on the ground (they are +0.2 ypr which is somewhat negligible). My projections call for 4.2-4.5 ypr for TCU which given their historical performance and this years performances seems pretty accurate. I come up with a little over 400 yds offense for TCU (including 7.4 ypa when they decide to throw it – which won’t be much) and my math calls for 35-41 pts (which is on the high side of a 400 yards day). Our models are all pretty tightly clustered around the 31-35 range for TCU which is more in line with a 400 yard day, and consistent with what Stanford is allowing (34 ppg). With a hurricane lurking I am a little concerned about laying double digits, particularly with a team that like to run the football, but given my projections, our models, and analysis, I can’t see how we pass. TCU 32 Stanford 12. TCU is a #4 recommended play at -14.

**thegeeksheet** · 09-12-08, 12:41 PM

Ark St - Southern Miss write up

07:00PM 183 So Mississippi Golden Eagles
Saturday 09/13/2008 184 Arkansas State Indians 2.5

I guess the upset win over TAMU and posting 83 on a mediocre 1-AA Texas Southern team, has the public thinking Ark St is the next BCS-busting darling. While they might in fact be the best team in the state right now, they are not as good as Southern Miss and I can’t see where they should be favored. TAMU barely got by New Mexico last week (and were outgained 370-238) so I am not even sure the TAMU game constitutes an upset (most everyone have TAMU battling Baylor for cellar status in the B12 South). On top of that, ASU has been the benefactor of 9 turnovers in those 2 games (including 4 in the TAMU game), and even though they did put up some big numbers vs TAMU, they only averaged 5.6 yppl in that game so it wasn’t like they set the world on fire.

ASU (by most accounts) was picked to finish somewhere in the middle of the SBC right around UL-L. Both defenses (UL-L and ASU) return 5 and 6 starters respectively, and allowed 28 & 35 ppg as well as 360 & 440 ypg, so it seems fair to me to (on the surface) to expect relatively similar defensive results this season (as well as overall results). USM’s offense is averaging 469 ypg & 32 ppg this season against much better competition than ASU has faced (USM has played UL-L and Auburn), including 633 yards offense (427 of that on the ground) to ULL which is a pretty comparable defense (in terms of talent, returning starters from last year, and last years production as stated above). While I don’t see a 600 yard day for the Golden Eagles, the point is that USM should have a big day against ASU. Damien Fletcher was pretty much shut down vs a very good Auburn rush defense last week. Versus an ASU defense which is -0.3 ypr this season vs a 1AA team and a horrible TAMU offense I don’t see Fletcher having any problems getting on track (ASU allowed 4.1 ypr last year, including 3.5+ ypr to 8 of the 12 regular season foes they faced). What came out of USM’s game last week vs Auburn which is why I like this game so much is that USM showed an ability to effectively throw the football and really used their big senior TE Shawn Nelson and all world freshman Deandre Brown in the passing game. Why that is important in this game is that ASU struggled some vs the pass last year (allowing 6.8 ypa), and that should be much worse this year as they replace all 4 starters in the secondary off last years unit. USM, by my math should average 4.8 ypr for pretty close to 200 yds on the ground, when they choose to throw; my math predicts 7.3 ypa for a little over 200 in the air. I suspect a young and not very talented secondary will get beat deep at least a couple times by the USM combo of Brown and Nelson. All in all my math calls for about 420 yds offense for USM and 28 points, which given the above I think is on the conservative side. All our models are pretty well in alignment with 26-32 points for USM, and considering an ASU defense returning 5 starters off a unit that allowed 360 and 28 that seems pretty realistic.

I am not really sure how to account for the Texas Southern game, but I do know that ASU’s offense last year was good, but certainly not great (ave 24 ppg & 380 ypg), and that unit has it’s own question marks particularly replacing 4 offensive lineman and their top receiver (who accounted for almost 1/3 of their total receiving yards). While the core nucleus of skill players returns, and I look for them to improve off last years numbers, I don’t see them running over an ok USM defense. Ark St had very good success last year on the ground vs USM (ave 5.8 ypr), but I wonder how that will translate to this season with 4 new offensive lineman. My math does predict 4.8 ypr for ASU, but that accounts for the Tx-Southern game, and I am not so sure that is a 100% accurate projection. Still I’ll give them 4.8 ypr on the ground. Also, USM has been very good defending the run this year, despite allowing 4.7 ypr (they have faced teams that average 5.7 ypr so they are actually +1.0 ypr), so I think the combination of that and an inexperienced ASU OL may mean ASU struggles a little here (relatively speaking and compared to the straight math projection of 4.8 ypr). Both the ASU offense and USM defense have been about the same in the passing game (averaging and allowing 6-6.5 ypa), and I don’t expect much different here (my math projects 6.5 ypa for ASU). My math projects right at 360-380 yards offense for ASU (and 24-29 points although 40% of the models have ASU below 17 points). Given what ASU averaged last season (24 & 380) and what USM allowed last season (24 & 366), and that both have about equal question marks to answer this season, as well as this seasons results, this all seems like a reasonable assessment for ASU.

While that is pretty similar to USM’s projections I think there is risk in ASU’s ability to run the football and a lot of upside in USMs ability to pass. Those two things combined with all 5 of my models and math all showing a USM victory will get me to lean with USM in spite of ASU’s start. Southern Miss 29 Ark St 24…USM is a #4 recommended play at +2.5.

**thegeeksheet** · 09-12-08, 12:41 PM

MTSU - Kentucky write up

07:00PM 185 Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders
Saturday 09/13/2008 186 Kentucky Wildcats 17.0

I think MTSU’s victory over MD has created a little line value here as I can’t figure out how UK isn’t at least a 3 TD favorite at home vs a very mediocre MTSU team returning 12 starters off a 5 win team last year that gave up 40+ to the only 4 legitimate offenses they faced last year (including 31 to Troy in week 1). UKs defense has been dominate allowing 2.5 ppg and 161 ypg (3.0 yppl). I don’t see an MTSU offense that is averaging 343 ypg (but at a 4.1 yppl clip) will get much of anything done here. My projections call for 225-250 yards offense and 7-14 pts. Our models are all within that same range (7-15).

UK hasn’t look great thus far, after replacing 7 offensive starters, but I got to think they’ll fair as well as most do against a pretty bad MTSU defense with it’s own question marks (allowing 5.6 yppl this season to an average Troy offense and a horrible Maryland attack). My math projects 35 pts and 400+ yards offense, which given what I can determine, and what MTSU allowed to their better competition last year seems about right. This is mostly a model play (as there really isn’t enough meaningful data on UKs offense thus far), as 80% of my models are with 5 pts of each other between 35-39 with a high model at 50 (and 500+ yds offense). I see all the value here with UK, and even if all the models and my math are off by 20%, I think there is still a 50% chance UK holds MTSU to 1 score or less which would still give you a squeaker 28-7. I’ll stick with the bulk of my models predictions which is pretty in line with my math. UK 35 MTSU 9. UK is a #4 recommended play at -17

**thegeeksheet** · 09-12-08, 12:42 PM

Write up for games i passed on but looked hard at

12:00PM 105 Navy Midshipmen
Saturday 09/13/2008 106 Duke Blue Devils 2.0

Very similar match up for Navy as last week’s game vs Ball State. Navy was successful running the football as we predicted (346 yds on the ground vs 350 we predicted), even with the loss of starting QB Kaheaku-Enhada. What killed Navy last week, and my guess is what will hurt them this week is that backup QB Bryant isn’t as successful running the football as K-Enhada which really showed in the redzone last week (a compressed field makes the run-heavy spread much more difficult as the safeties and secondary aren’t as spread out). Navy’s defense got torched again in the air (where they are now allowing 8.6 ypa for the season to Towson and Ball State), and Duke’s offense has been decent thus far in the air (although still relatively unproven), where they are +0.6 ypa.

All our models and math show Navy winning outright, even when adjusting for the loss of K-Enhada. Adjustments like this are difficult, and I’d expect a wider than normal distribution of expected results, but this is a little to large for me. Our high and low models have 40-24 points for Navy, with the absolute model average closer to the 34 range. Still my math only really justifies 24-30, and given Navy’s struggles last week to convert total offense to TDs the conservative approach is to hedge closer to 24.

We do show Duke posting similar numbers to Ball State last week (about 150-250) and about a 70% chance to outgain Navy (based on model variance in yardage projections). The Projections are pretty tight with Duke between 20-24 points, which is a little low for 400 yard day, and given Navy’s pass defense one should expect one or two big play TDs in the air. Navy should still get the 300-350 on the ground, perhaps more, depending on Bryant’s improvement with a full week’s preparation as the starter (which I can’t quantify mathematically, but is definitely a factor).

I really wish this was later in the season, and we had a better idea of what to expect from Navy here with out K-Enhada. That alone will keep me from making this a recommended play, but I don’t mind going on record saying I think Navy get’s it done here. Navy 28 Duke 24

07:00PM 181 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
Saturday 09/13/2008 182 Alabama Crimson Tide 28

Half of my models don’t predict Alabama to score 28 points, and the other half have them between 29-35 points…so even if you get 0 out of WKU (which is a distinct possibility) I still think you have a 50% chance to cover this line.

Bottom line is Alabama isn’t that good and is still being bet up based largely on the hype surrounding Saban and the drubbing they gave an obviously over-rated Clemson team. Upon further inspection, even against Clemson they didn’t perform that well offensively. While it is true they totaled 419 yards offense, they ran 80 offensive plays which means they only averaged 5.3 yppl which is only slightly better than the 5.1 yppl they averaged last year. Also if you were to adjust that Clemson game to a more typical total play distribution (65-70), Bama would have yielded 344-370 yards offense which is pretty in line with last years performance (averaged 374 ypg). They struggled mightily last week with just 172 yards offense vs a bad Tulane defense that has some holes to fill off a unit that allowed 31 ppg & 421 ypg. I can discount a lot of that to a bit of an emotional let down after the week prior, but I can’t see where they will come into this game with any more intensity than last week. Bama has been a pretty bad bet as a DD fav the last 3 years (4-11 ATS), and has struggled offensively vs mediocre teams. Versus the bottom half of the competition last year (UL-M, Miss St, Miss, Houston, and Vandy) they only averaged 21 ppg. WKU is far worse than those teams above, and is particularly bad vs the run, which may end up being a good thing as I can see Saban just wanting to get out of this game without any real injuries and resting as many of his guys as he can. His next 5 weeks include @ Ark, @ UGA, UK, Ole Miss, and @ UT so you can be sure Saban is going to be looking to rest his guys getting ready for that difficult stretch.

All in all based on season projections alone, my math calls for 360-370 yards offense for Bama and 25-26 pts. Our models (as mentioned above) are spread from 26-35 with about half below and half above 28. In case you are curious, WKU was respectable last year on offense averaging 33 ppg and 409 ypg, and returns 7 off that unit including a Senior QB, their top 4 rushers, and 4 of their top 5 receivers (lost 2 on the OL but they start all Jrs and Seniors on the OL this year). Before you start seeing dancing Warhawks in your head (UL-Monroe), understand WKU made the jump from D1AA last year and only played 6 D1 schools (one of which was UF and the other 5 SBC schools). Against those 5 SBC schools they still performed admirably averaging nearly 20 ppg & 387 ypg. My math calls for 245 yards offense and 7-14 points, and our models call for 12-17 points. Bama has completely shut down the run this year, and that is really where WKU must get it done, so I’ll be surprised if they get more than 2 scores here, they get two TDs we are in good shape 2 FGs it could be tight, one and one and I like our chances. Still, Bama’s defense is legit, and there is probably a 30-40% chance that WKU gets shut out. Plus I am not sure I am willing to back a team that while 1A (technically), still hasn’t played a full slate of 1A teams, this wreaks of a 31-0, 35-3 type game, and there are a few too many intangible here for me to advocate this as a play, although my math and models are all firmly in favor of a WKU cover, which is the only place I see value. WKU 10 Alabama 32.

Western Kentucky 9 Alabama 30

08:00PM 171 Bowling Green Falcons
Saturday 09/13/2008 172 Boise State Broncos 16.5

BG comes calling to Boise for an evening contest on the smurf turf. At the surface 16 seemed like a lot to lay in this one, but the more I dug into it the more I started to think it wasn’t all that much.

Bowling Green has been very bad thus far passing the football (5.2 ypa to defenses that have allowed 6.6 ypa – Pitt and Minn so we actually have pretty good analysis on BG thus far). That is a bit surprising as they return every skill player off last years unit that averaged 30 ppg and 7 ypa. They had to replace 3 OLs this year, which I think is throwing off their protection and timing. They are still averaging 3.6 ypr compared to 3.8 LY so they aren’t really having trouble on the ground although they aren’t excelling as they are only averaging 96 ypg on the ground. Boise returns 7 from last years unit that was pretty good (allowing 21 ppg & 338 ypg). All I really have to go on with Boise is last years performance (adjusted accordingly) as their only opponent is Idaho St. My math projections (using BSUs last year stats) predict 335 yds total offense at 4.9 yppl (Boise allowed 4.9 yppl LY and BG is averaging 4.6 yppl this year so I feel pretty good that this is a fair prediction) and 18-20 pts (which is dead on with our models that have 18-20). Having only a 2 pt model variance which is exactly aligned with my mathematical projections hardly ever happens and gets me very excited.

The BG defense has allowed 395 ypg @ 5.1 yppl, including 3.7 ypr. That is a slight improvement over last years unit that allowed 4.7 ypr, so it looks like BG is slightly better than last year on defense. Boise has it’s question marks on offense, with only 5 offensive starters returning (must replace QB & 4 OL) off last years unit that torched opponents for 42 ppg & 467 ypg (including 4.6 ypr). I am not so concerned about Boise’s offense as they have averaged 4.6 ypr (per season) 5 of the last 6 years (back to the Dan Hawkins days), so even with only 5 returning starters I think this system will continue to perform as it has for the last half decade. My projections call for 4.4 ypr for Boise, which seems fair given that their OL will probably struggle a bit and BG has shown signs of improvement vs the run (using last years stats for both teams I came up with 5.1 ypr for BG so that is about a 13-15% drop off which seems right). Boise averaged 8.1 ypa last year in the air and BG allowed 7.5, and although it would appear BG has improved some this year vs the pass (only allowing 6.5 ypa) that is skewed some because 2/3 of those attempts were with a Pitt offense that is not a very good passing team (they only averaged 6 ypa last year). Minnesota torched BG for 9.3 ypa, and I suspect a Boise off that averaged 8.1 ypa last year (and 12.5 last week) will have pretty good success in the air. Boise has averaged 263 ypg passing the last 6 years, so again I think even though they have some pieces to replace, it’s not like the coaches are going to miraculously forget how to call and operate their system. My projections call for 7.6 ypa for Boise which should give them about 454 yards offense (6.0 yppl). Boise averaged 42.4 ppg last year and 42.6 over the last 6 years. BG allowed 32ppg last year and has allowed 29 ppg thus far this season (to teams who aren’t near as good offensively as Boise). My projections call for 38-44 points for Boise, which given all the above is fair. My models have a really wide variance on Boise’s point totals of 35-51 (although all the yardage production is about equal), which yields a worse case score of 35-20 Boise. However, there is only one model with Boise below 40 points and one model with BG at 20 so I think that is a really worse case scenario. I think a more logical score is Boise 43 BG 17, still with some still unproven dimensions to Boise’s offense and a 3 score line to cover there is a fair amount of risk in this game. The fact that I don’t have one game worth of useable data for Boise State will keep me off making this a recommended play, although my math and models all call for a fairly lopsided game, and I don’t mind going on record supporting my weighted average projected score.
Boise State 43 Bowling Green 17

**thegeeksheet** · 09-14-08, 07:53 PM

Wk 3 Recap

4-1, not too bad...got a little lucky on the TCU game, still all in all a pretty good week, was pretty dead on with most my projected scores!

W- Vandy, AF, TCU, USM
L - UK

Actual (Predicted)

Rice 21 (22) Vandy 38 (35)
AF 31 (32) Houston 28 (28)
TCU 31 (32) Stanford 13 (12)
USM 27 (29) Ark ST 24 (24)
Kentucky 20 (35) MTSU 13 (9)