PRIVATE ZONE: No Admittance!! 2 Team Pars, etc

[ritehook]

Ok, you broke in. You're not deterred by signs.

But, it is SBR's zone, not mine. I'm jes' borrowin' it here for awhile. To satisfy my curioiusity and have a bit of fun.

For about 10 years - early 90s thru early 00s - I operated a small-time tout service. Football only, and later on the last month of college hoops and March Madness.

Got into touting kinda by accident. Was working at a sports marketing company and some friends & fellow employees began to follow my football picks. Which I gave free. Wasn't even thinking of making money from people.

After a few years it was becoming kind of a hassle with people, some I didn't even know at this point, calling me to get the picks or have me fax them out --- this was before the Internet, or before it really made it's breakthrough.

So, defensively, I began to charge a small amount. Mainly to limit the number of people bugging me. And most years I did well, with a few really good years. And the neg years weren't bankroll busters.

But had only a few dozen subscribers. In the last three years I ran this thing, I did start doing some small promotion and advertising. Like in sports sheets and local papers, and by buying a mailing list of former tout clients.

Nothing huge, but maybe tripled my permanent client base. For several reasons that was big enough for me.

In the penultimate year I decided to make a bold offer: other than a very small registration fee, I would give the season's picks FREE. Except that I would pinpoint two teams each week and ask each client to make a $30 parlay wager on them. For me, and remit immediately after winning the net profit.

I made the offer partly out of curiousity, to see how it would go. I know tht most casual bettors love parlays (tho I rarely, then and now, bet them); and, I was tiring of running the service, with other things starting to take a lot of my time.

I did learn in running this service that clients, most of them, DEMAND tht the tout exhibit an absurd degree of sureness and confidence. I mean, a guy could be a doctor or a bank president, but when he starts to bet sports he becomes a blithering and naive idiot.

Breakfast time, back later with the rest of this diatribe, and of course THE PICKS. lol

[ritehook]

Hmmm, bad overcooked omelette. Or what was supposed to be one. GF nowhere to be seen on Sat during foots season - the way I like it! Tho miss th occasional decent breakfast. (I'll go back to muesli)

I'm going to post the picks, as it's getting late (first games I have kick at 3:30 ET and 12:30 PT). I'll come back later to finish the account of the most interestng season I had for football. And easily the most profitable. Admittedly, I did spend more time on it then do I do now.

The account, btw, is for "descendants." But I'll put it in this rant and then print it out.

Here's my first two team parlay. (Lines taken from about an hour ago at Scores & Odds.)

NORTHERN ILLINOIS +8.5 (Minnesota) WIN
Years ago I noted that selected MAC teams, in the first or second game of the season, would not only cover vs their major conference rivals (usually Big Ten or Big East) but would win outright.

This is now well-known among bettors, and you don't get as many nice overlays on this angle as previously. But soemtimes still.

There is of course a risk in going with a brand spankin' new head coach (Jerry Kill), and Huskies really blew it last year, a rebuilding season that prompted much-respectred HC Joe Novak to leave.

But Jerry's kids have had a year of experience, N. Ill is one of the MAC teams that once regularly knocked off Big Tenners in first game, so I look for a competitive game.

Kill 'em, Jerry.

FLORIDA ATLANTIC +24 (Texas) LOSE
That sharp, long-in-tooth FAU HC said about a month ago that his team was not simply going to Texas to put up a good fight, but to win.

Just words, but I do take ol' Howie seriously. He's been there, done that, on several levels of college football. And has most of his starters back from the team that won the SB last year. (And the bowl game, too,if I recall rightly.)

Yes, i know: the SB vs the Big 12. That's why we're getting 3 and a half touchdowns. Just hope that Schnell wasn't shooting his mouth off last month after drinking too many Schnapps,

PARLAY: LOSE
Other plays:

MISSISISIPPI STATE -7.5 LOSE
MISSOURI -9 WIN
UTAH +3 WIN
LA MONROE +24.5 LOSE
CLEMSON -4.5 LOSE
BOSTON COLLEGE -10 WIN
VIRGINIA +20 LOSE


I never check other people's plays before making my own. I did, late last night, check the selections of pags. And I note that some of my above plays conflict with his.

If in doubt, go with pags. Guy is a dynamo, and spends a lot more time than I do on this. There's rarely any good substitute for time and effort.

My approach early season, when not much is really known about the capacities of the teams, is to go with (A) Angles, which I do; and (B) a projection of this season's capabilities off last years, esp 2nd half of last year, and esp defensive stats - which as we all know is what wins ball games.

My bets early season are all moderate. And, oh yeah, because I'm giving the 2 tm pars I also feel obliged to bet 'em. Which I'll do. For one half a unit.

[I know that one game - not one of mine - was moved up some hours due to the approach of the hurricane. I see no other changes at this moment int he start times of other games in the Gulf region, but something to be aware of)

[ritehook]

If you have an elevated veiw of human nature, running a tout service will quickly disabuse you of such misplaced idealism.

The most mild-mannered, super-rational physic professor will become as putty when Stu Feiner or some other professional sleazeball screams at them from their tv sets.

The clients of the touts want to be smoked. You do not stay in that business long, in a serious career way, if you are a poor bullsh1tter, or have anything resembling a conscience.

A guy who operates, or used to, out of Atlanta, one Kevin O'Neill, shows the devolution of an honest writer into a star of the foul tout fraternity.

O'Neills wrote and marketed (thru touts, first warning sign) a couple of books on betting football.

But in his books he mocked the phony claims of the touts, and put the bogus "trends" over the hot coals.

He went into the biz, and gave his first year's picks out free to all who called his recorded line. Did well, as I recall.

Then he started charging a season-long fee. Fine.

The first few years I had the impression he did well. Then, the rubber hit the road. I heard him on a tout show saying that he was having a bad year.

Next, I saw or heard one of his ads. He was saying something like, "In October, our college totals have gone 8-2"

The old game. Give picks out on a number of levels (pro, college, totals, Game of Week, of Month ---- you can easily make up a list of dozens, scores of different categories) then pick and promote the one that did well.

It was the very techniques O'Neill had mocked in his earlier treatises!

He must have really enjoyed the tout biz to show himself as such a monumental hypocrite. Lot better money than to write booklets on football handicapping.

Last I heard, he was conducting very expensive seminars for wannabee touts. One lecture, as I recall, was on how to keep the suckers re-subscribing when you have a bad season.

[ritehook]

A few years ago, on another sports betting site, a guy who said he was an ex-bookie posted his NFL plays, saying he took a lot of money from bettors and now wanted to give some back.

As I recall, the first year, maybe two, he did great in the NFL. It seems he was even affecting the lines, much as Dr Bob is reputed to do.

The accolades that were coming in from swooning bettors on that site must have been embarrassing, even to him. (Well, maybe not. He didn't try to cool the overheated praise. And point out that the famed "computer groups" that blew Las Vegas books out of the water a few dacades ago hit, long-term, about 57% winners. Which is all you need, with good money-management, to stick it hard to the books.)

One admirer fixed his malfunctioned computer, and sent it back to him with a bunch of restaurant vouchers,and a note that said he was putting the money he won on this guy's picks into his child's college fund.

Odd, no one saw the danger, the smoke rising in the distance.

Well, I did, but was not going to spoil anyone's fun, however transitory.

Then, one season, with perhaps thousands of eager worshippers waiting breathlessly for him to post his weekly pics, the bottom dropped out.

Inevitable. As a student of Homo Sapiens - that weird species knows as "mankind," - I followed it with fascination. As the 'capper desperately tried to get on the win side.

And as the former worshippers at his temple became disgrunted agnostics, with some losing small fortunes. They started to overturn the stone idols they themselves had erected for him.

The "anti" diatribes and outright cursing he was now being hit with were as energetic as the hallelujahs he'd previously enjoyed.

It was not an edifying spectacle. The guy seems to have meant well - it's just that he was a victim of his own temporary success. Believed his own press clippings, as they used to say in an earlier era.

I don't visit that site anymore, and so don't know if he still posts there. Maybe he recovered and is receiving the devout worshippers as before. Maybe I'll look in later this year to check.

Even back around century's turn I know my fellow humans all too well to fall into that trap. And instead of tooting my own trumpet when I came out of the box so strong after making my startling "win or don't pay" offer, instead of helping to erect monuments to my genius, I dutifully warned my clients that it wouldn't last.

And of course it didn't. But they didn't believe me, most of them. I don't need a course on how religions get started - I saw it too many times first hand.

I see it also on this forum. It's an intricate part of human nature - the Will to Believe, is what I think psychologist William James once called it.

[ritehook]

When I started the capping that year (I think it was '99 -I'd have to check some old records to be sure) I was hoping that I'd hit maybe two or three 2 team parlays from the first 10 weeks, to pay for the time and hassle. (The hassle of running a small business, and that's what it is, forget any "glamor.")

I CAME OUT OF THE BOX HITTING TEN TWO-TEAMERS IN A ROW!

For those who know odds, this is incredible. And, of course, does require a fair amount of pure luck tossed into the mix.

I don't know the odds agaisnt accomplishing that kind of feat. And the math is beyond me. Would take a Ganch to figure out.

A few clients were slow pay and even "no pay" - there was no PayPal etc then, if I remember rightly. All wires and money orders.

And of course, I was also betting the two teamers, as a matter of good faith, as well as my own picks.

I let the good times roll. But never got caught up into self-worship.

I knew there was a lot of luck involved. And that the worm would turn. And I cautioned my clients to that effect, to increase their bets, to be sure, but on a disciplined, percet of bankroll way. Not going crazy and trying to take down the book.

I also knew, with most, it would do no good. That they would, and were, plunging. And the praise and hosannas I was receiving, would, I realized, turn to puke once the worm did in fact turn.

Which of course it did. Not all that badly tho, and everyone who subscribed to my service that year made out like bandits.

I didn't do too badly either.

I repeated the same offer the following year. Wasn't as good. Lost most of the clients - off looking for another idol to worship.

I'd about had it anyway. Didn't want to become a professional tout. (Well on the shady side of 50 still don't know what I really want to be when I grow up. Novelist, I think. Have a lot of insight into that stange object known as the human heart.)

A sports betting forum teaches a lot about contemporary America. The nature of the HDGs. (Hot Demographic Groups). The eternal hope for quick riches, deeply ingrained into the American psyche, a residue of our Puritan ancestors who taught that only the virtuous (or lucky) would be saved and see Paradise.

And human tragedy. One poor soul I remember here was begging others to stake him to a $10 bet.

Let no one talk about "higher humanity." I was never disappointed when some of my clients turned on me - in the second, bust year one client even demanded I give him back the $30 a week he'd bet on the winning parlays the prior year!

Once, when his friend Wincklemann tried to convince Frederick the Great about the great potential and goodness of humanity, the Emperor gently dismissed his rantings: "My dear friend, you don't know this damned [human] race!"

Well, I do. Take a spin in the tout biz and you will too,.

[ritehook]

And if I go 0-9 on my picks today -- will I be embarrassed, disappointed, angry, self-doubting, vengeful, hateful, sour on life?

None of the above. No one's being charged for this stuff. And even if they were, hey, it's speculation.

Tossing the taurino and havin' a bit of fun. Just don't bow to the bull. He'll gore you sure as hell.

[ritehook]

One other item.

There is (or was, I have insufficient time to check it out) a Las Vegas-based tout named Kelso Sturgeon. (Named, presumably, after a horse and a fish.)]

Stugeon used to write almost all the handicapping artilcles that appeared in the old Sportsform and College and Pro Footrball Weekly. He once, he said, had been a scout in the ACC.

Well, Kelso talked a pretty good game, and when he moved to Vegas (Henderson, actually, where he reputedly spent a lot of time in the Sam's Town book) he really started spinning the tout lines. All the tried and true manure, from the same old arseholes.

In the mid or late 90s he appeared as a season-long "guest handicapper" on a horse racing show hosted by a SoCal trainer named Roger Stein.

Sturgeon gave out two college picks each Saturday, and two NFL picks each Sunday.

His win ATS record for the season was something like 25%. It became a kind of runnng joke on show.

At one point Sturgeon said: "It's very hard for anyone to pick two winners in a row, and I'm living proof of that."

Doubt that's what he tells his marks, if he is still in the bull and fantasy biz.

[ritehook]

4-5. That blows.

Well, to even it up, or to make it a neater 4-6, I'm on
RUTGERS -4 on Labor Day, vs Fresno. LOSE
Two good coaches, but I will often go against a team that travels 3 time zones. It's tough, even for kids. (Tho the theory didn't pan out when Usc flew to Virginia)

Rice gone, that hurts Rutgers, but th qb, Teel, is competent, and has two very good receivers. Also fine left T to protect him.

Laying the four seems reasonable. Won't be a blowout, but Knights should get cover

[NOPHUN]

you seem like a cool enough guy... but damn you like to talk... and for the record.. your picks stink so far.. spend less time typing your life story and more time researching your picks...LOL.. just kidding.. welcome and GL

[Sforz]

i feel like I know you after reading all that....







can I borrow $10? lmk.. no honestly lmk

[PerfecTrader]

i feel like I know you after reading all that....

Seriously? You read all that?

[Sforz]

yeah... i don't know why.. . . thought it was going somewhere

[Sledge187]

This is the reason why I like reading forums. Keep it coming Ritehook.

[ritehook]

you seem like a cool enough guy... but damn you like to talk... and for the record.. your picks stink so far.. spend less time typing your life story and more time researching your picks...LOL.. just kidding.. welcome and GL

And welcome to you, gatebuster.

Sure, I like to talk. But I do that marvellously well. In fact, many times I got paid for it, including once on a sports website. (Wow, easy money, like stealing.)

Also pubbed many times in horse racing mags. BTW, handicapping an insider's game like horses is a lot harder than a basically honest game like college foots. (Yeah, once in a while ya get an idiot player who thinks he can "point shave" football for the gamblers - can't happen! Foots ain't hoops . . .)

But remember, as I said from the get-go, this section is for myself and my posterity! LOL.

Which is why I always boldface the picks. So gate-crashers can go right to it and get all the losers they can handle.

Yes, the picks did stink. And it could get worse as the season rolls on. I'm striving for a perfect 0-10 weekend. When I hit it I'll triumphantly end this thread.

Ah, talking too much again ....... I'll send SBR my bill.

[ritehook]

COLLEGE WEEK 2 - NFL WEEK 1

Could have posted these this morning but waited till now, evening, so as to avoid too many gatecrashers. Thread should be off page 1 by morning.

Esp so since I feel a pefect 0-8 egg in the offing. If that happens I'd just draw the faders. And wow, wouldn't that ever embarrass me!

NOT!

I've had my ego gratified with cold hard cash, a lot of it in my big season. This is just part of my record, with the writeup on the par plays only, to give a few of my reasons for so picking what I deem the best plays.

I won't carry it thru the entire season, most likely. It's also a kind of experiment. I always did very very well in bowls, only one mildly losing season if I recall.

Until last year, when I put them on this board and immediately went into the Great Toilet.

Did good in posting the NCAAs tho, solid profit.

It's a superstition. Does posting on a pub forum anger the God of Gambling enough for them to strike you down?

Well, I'm 1-1 in so doing. If this doesn't get better it'll be 1-2.
Tho it is true that I do not spend as much time in 'capping as I did in the years when I rode high. Generally do so tho for bowls and March Madness.

Picks on next box.

[ritehook]

Pointspreads were taken from the Scores & Odds site about a a half hour ago.

2 Team Parlay:

DUKE + 6.5 (Northwestern) WIN

CINCINNATI, NFL -1.5 (Baltimore) LOSE

PARLAY: LOSE

Duke has been a bottom dweller for a long time. Probably won't have a winnng season, but could come close this year.

Northwestern under Pat Fitz hasn't been gangbusters either.

There could be a dangerous "revenge" deal here, as last year the Dukies went to Evanston and handed the Wildcats a loss, as double digit dog.

However, this game's in Durham. And Duke has a bunch of retuning players.

And most of all, Duke snagged one of the best unemployed (as a HC) coaches around, in David Cutcliffe. Ole MIss some years ago foolishly fired this guy, but his record there proves he's the real deal.

He may not make the Devils big winners in two years, but he should certainly get them more than the pathetic 0,1 and 2 win seasons they been suffering thru for a long time.

And will likely start with this year.

Also (and all those bettting on outdoor event on the Eastern Seaboard on Saturday should be aware) there is either a hurricane or tropical storm visiting on Sat much of the mid-Atlantic states.

So if wind and rain hit Durham so much th better for the dog.


CINCINNATI BENGALS -1.5 (Baltimore)

Rookie head coach Harbaugh didn't want to start rookie QB Joe Flacco, with only 1-AA college experience.

He had no choice. His number 1 and 2 guys - Boller and Smith - are either sick or indisposed.

Bengals are not exactly anyone's Dream Team. But they have a top QB, and a wide receiver tandem that rivals any in the NFL.

Defensively, the addition of rookie Keith Rivers at SS LB should give a boost to their D. I expect to see some creative blitzes from the Cincy D to rattle the rookie QB.

Other plays:

TEXAS TECH -10 WIN
NEW MEXICO +2.5 LOSE
WAKE -7.5 LOSE
MEMPHIS -3 LOSE
UTAH - 22 LOSE
DETROIT (NFL) -3 LOSE

One unit all but Wake, which gets a half unit. They should cover vs Ole Miss, but if the wind is blowing hard it generally helps the dog.

[ritehook]

To the unauthorized visitors:

I don't expect you to read the prologue. It ain't for you, guys.

And, as members of the HDG (Hot Demographic Group, age 18-35) you likely have A.D.D. One or two, 3 sentences max is all you can hack. Which, I think, accounts for about 50% of the complaints re the books for SBR members.

They didn't read the rules posted at the books. More than 3 sentences, whaddatheykiddin!? Which is why the banner ads (I used to wrte 'em, part of my - uh - variegated resume) for the books are short to the point of being Flash Cards.

I'm surprised at least one of the books doesn't offer as a sign-up bonus a year's supply of Ritalin.

I'm not mocking you, HDG members; just pointing it out. We all have our deficiencies. Mine are legion - just check out my picks here for last week. And maybe for this week too!

[ritehook]

I do have a certain busybody curiosity as to how much a banner ad costs on this site.

Can't be less than $100k a year. Maybe two, three times that.

Think I'll ask JJ, he'll know.

[Sforz]

To the unauthorized visitors:

I don't expect you to read the prologue. It ain't for you, guys.

And, as members of the HDG (Hot Demographic Group, age 18-35) you likely have A.D.D. One or two, 3 sentences max is all you can hack. Which, I think, accounts for about 50% of the complaints re the books for SBR members.

They didn't read the rules posted at the books. More than 3 sentences, whaddatheykiddin!? Which is why the banner ads (I used to wrte 'em, part of my - uh - variegated resume) for the books are short to the point of being Flash Cards.

I'm surprised at least one of the books doesn't offer as a sign-up bonus a year's supply of Ritalin.

I'm not mocking you, HDG members; just pointing it out. We all have our deficiencies. Mine are legion - just check out my picks here for last week. And maybe for this week too!

Most wont even finish reading that post...

[hhsilver]

ritehook,

thanks for this thread. Please keep it going. I don't care about your picks as much as I like your writing style and the anecdotes you offer. good stuff. I remember enjoying your long and informative and well written write-up prior to the bowl games last season.

[ritehook]

Most wont even finish reading that post...

Exactly.

But if I were paid to reach the HDGs I know how to do so: No sentence more than 10 words; no word over two syllables.

And 3 sentences max to make the point. LOTS of graphics.
Cartoon characters speaking in short shots, in balloons overhead.

They got the so-called "disposable income," it's up to the wiseguys to take it from them.

[ritehook]

ritehook,

thanks for this thread. Please keep it going. I don't care about your picks as much as I like your writing style and the anecdotes you offer. good stuff. I remember enjoying your long and informative and well written write-up prior to the bowl games last season.

Thanks.

But the horrendous results that followed re the bowls still sticks in my craw.

Even if I drop this -season is too long - I may try again during bowl season to wipe out the curse.

[ritehook]

Saturday Sept 13 - Selections

DEAR DIARY:

I am sailing down a torrential and horrifically odiferous stream. Heading out to sea, I believe.

Wastes of all kinds surround me - the experience is offal.

This rude journey began last weekend, when a distant rushing sound jettisoned me from my easy chair and onto this Barge from Hell.

I am sorely tempted to jump ship.

But, for the nonce, I will soldier on. Sailor on, that is.

There may be sea monsters ahead, but "none but the brave" and all that . . .

[NOTE ON THE NFL PIX LAST WEEK:
I tend to emphasize a bit more than most the quality of head coaching. So it is inexplicable as to why I would make a play on Cincy, coached by one of the worst in the NFL. Marv Lewis long ago lost control of his team.

Five years ago he was the beneficiary of the NFL's aggressive Affirmative Action program. And likely would have been fired last year but for the PC watchdogs of that program.

In Detroit (my other losing NFL pick) both the HC and GM will be gone next year, unless they make the playoffs. Wave goodbye.

Plays for College Sept 13 follow, below.]

[ritehook]

COLLEGE PLAYS FOR SAT, SEPT 13

Only about a half hour before kick of first game, let me move fast:

2 Team Parlay:

GEORGIA -7 (S Carolina) PUSH

I'm strong on "revenge," but only if game is early season, or vs a traditional rival if later. This is early season, natch

S. Carolina on the road won vs Georgia by 4 pts last year, as dogs. That was one of only two losses Bulldogs had last year, and likely kept them out of the chammpionship game.

So far this year they easily polished off two inferior foes. This is their first real test. On the road, but they should be Bulldog mad to take on a good but less talented (lost to Vandy last week) Gamecock team.

NOTRE DAME +2 (Michigan) WIN

Altho I think that SDSU were robbed last week by Touchdown Jesus (the ball broke the plane, it was a TD), nonetheless that one play may have been the shake-up needed by the Irish.

The team is still young, but has talent, as might be expectd by the most storied program in the US college ball.

ND looked like the real thing after the goal line stop. I'm betting they can continue, at home, vs Michigan.

Wolverines, in their two games, have shown they have big probs scoring. As to be expected, considering their critical losses from last year.

Taking Irish at home for second part of parley.

PARLAY: REVERTS TO 1/2 UNIT WIN ON NOTRE DAME

Other plays:

GEORGIA TECH +6.5 WIN
STANFORD +14 LOSE
TEMPLE +7 WIN
UTAH -24 WIN
W. KENTUCKY +28 LOSE

Pointspreads taken about an hour ago from the Scores & Odds site.

No NFL plays this week.

[ritehook]

College Football Week 4 --- Nfl Week 3

COLLEGE FOOTS WEEK 4 & NFL WEEK 3

Last week I put a rudder of sorts on the Ship of Fools and got it a bit clear of the foul aroma.

4-2-1 ATS. The parlay won and pushed, which thus reverts to a half unit win, the cover for Notre Dame. (All the two-team parlays are for a half unit - it's a fun re-visit of the great time I had once, hitting 10 in a row out of the box.)

The numbers shown were taken from the Scores&Odds site about an hour ago. (All public cappers IMO should take their lines from the same book or site, week to week. So no question of "shading" can arise.)

2 Team Parlay:

OHIO +11.5 (Northwestern) WIN

Bobcats are 0-3 SU, Nwestern 3-0. Hmmm.

But I'm gonna take those points. Because: Ohio played 3 Div 1A teams, Nwesten only 2 of 3.

Ohio went to Wyoming first game of season and were leading most of the game. Ended up losing late by one point. It is hard, very hard, first game of season for a flatlands team to travel to the Rocky Mountains and do well. The players, most of them, are not yet in top physical condition, and playing so elevated above sea level is tough.

Ever land in Denver and have to walk a few blocks to your hotel? It was impressive that Ohio played the Cowboys tough that first game (in Laramie).

The next game on the road again they lost to Ohio State. By only 12 points. Yes,OSU was later embarrassed by USC, but they are likely still one of the top 6,7 teams in the land. Or, will be when they get Beanie back.

With or without Wells, that Bobcats could keep it so close agaist Bucks is also impressive.

Last week they lost to Central Mich, by 3 pts. Chips did make a bowl last year, and had their QB and starters returnig this year.

Solich seems to have a better defense this year, despite the 3 tough losses. Ready to win, I feel.

Northwestern beat Syracuse (who hasn't?) by 20 in the opener, got by Duke by 4 pts, and easily beat a Div 1AA team.

I think Ohio U plays this game tough. They need a win. The 11 1/2 looks good to me.

NFL Sunday:

PHILADELPHIA -3.5 (Pittsburgh) WIN

I bought the hook here, altho I don't want to complicate things re units so will go with the PS as listed.

I think the quality balance is shifting back to the NFC, or at least evening up. New England, even before the Brady injury, is not what it had been in recent years. Indy lost the other week. Chargers will be back, likely, but are down now.

I think Eagles are one of the five best teams in the NFL. (Thought so pre-season too) Even despite the tough loss at Dallas last Monday.

The offseason moves they made, and the draft (WR from Cal a great pick), excllent coaching, and fiery fans.

I don't think Pittsburgh is of their quality. Coming off that Mon Nite loss and back home, I like Eagles to fly to a win.

Parlay as usual is for a half unit. WINOther plays:


VANDERBILT +7 WIN
TEXAS A&M +3 LOSE
TENNESSEE +7.5 LOSE
ARIZONA STATE +7 LOSE

NFL
NEW ORLEANS +5.5 WIN
I also bet Utah in college, earlier ths week. At -7.5 and bought the hook down to -7.

But it's up to -9.5 now, and I can't in good conscience make that a listed pick, tho I feel the Utes are one of the top 3 non BCS teams.

All plays for one unit unless specified otherwise.

[ritehook]

Week 5 College - Thursday Game

Strange to see a top-ranked team, and Pac ten, in a Thursday nite game.

Half a unit for me on Oregon State. But I'll make it "offiicial" about 30 minutes to kickoff, as the chances are that the number will fatten.

Several reasons. But a good one is that the Trojans are fast becoming an "America's Team." So in living rooms and sports bar nationwide Joe Average is going to shove his money on that LA Powerhouse.

It's always a good idea to take a stand, season-long, agaisnt America's Team. Joe Six inflates the number on them.

I'm back near kick to make it official.

[ritehook]

Oregon State +24.5 for a half unit WIN

The 24.5 was taken from the Scores and Odds site a few minutes ago.

However, about 4 minutes ago (approx 5:39 PT) I was able to bet it at +26, at the BetOnLine site. (Not my fave book, for reasons I put on the main board earlier this week) But, to be consistent, I am using the Scores and Odds site as long as I post here

I think this may jump another half point by kick. Masses are all over the Trojans. (Sometimes the masses are right. But long-term it's just another example of mass delusion)

[ritehook]

Week 5 College, Week 4 Nfl

4-3 ATS LW.

Did win the first two team parlay play. In the immortal words of Vegas tout Kelso Sturgeon, speaking of himself: "IT'S VERY HARD TO WIN TWO GAMES IN A ROW, AND I'M LIVING PROOF OF THAT."

Started good TW with a fade last night against USC. But, for only a half-unit.

TWO TEAM PARLAY (HALF UNIT)

DUKE -7 (Virginia) WIN

Blue Devils have not been a TD or more fave since '03, when they were 11 pt faves over visiting Rice. (They won that one, but failed to cover.)

Slowly, the bettors are realizing that this is the "new Duke." With two positive developments this year: they returned a lot of starters, esp on defense; and, they pulled off a coup in hiring Cutcliffe.

He'll turn this program around. And in fact has already started.
Duke is 2-1, and 1-1 vs Div 1A. They lost at home by 4 pts to still undefeated Northwestern. And they beat Navy by 10 pts last week.

Virginia, off a bowl game last year, is a mere shadow of what they were last year. Down defensely and offensively. Smacked badly by USC (7-52) and Uconn (10-45). Their sole win so far was vs 1AA Richmond, and they only scored 16 pts in that contest.

I know it's a little scary to lay 7 pts with Duke, but I'm gonna recognize the new reality and do it.

NFL
PHILADELPHIA -3 (Chicago) LOSE

Chicago isn't that bad, losing a couple of games by just a few points. And, it's still doubtful whether or not Eagles All Pro RB Westbrook will play (ankle).

But, Buckhalter did a fine job last week in the win over the Steelers, so that does not seem a great concern.

The Philly defense is one of the best in the NFL so far. 4th overall, and runaway # 1 in run defense. Orton will be on the spot if Bears can't do much on the ground. And my bet is that they won't be able to.

Eagles helped me win the par last week, I'll go back to the same well.

OTHER PLAYS

CONNECTICUT +3 WIN
IND/NWESTERN UNDER 42 (half unit) WIN
MISSISSIPPI STATE +24.5 WIN
NO. ILLINOIS -6.5 WIN
AKRON +11 WIN
STANFORD +3 WIN
OKLAHOMA - 18.5 WIN
OKLAHOMA STATE -17 WINTEXAS -27 WIN

All bets 1 unit unless otherwise stated. Pointspreads are from the Scores & Odds site, about an hour ago.

[ritehook]

Almost forgot:
In the NFL adding:

OAKLAND +7.5 LOSE

[ritehook]

SUNDAY, SEPT 28

In addition to the sides play (Phila) I'm adding in also a total play on that game --

EAGLES/BEARS OVER 39 - only a half unit. WIN

It's the Sunday nite game. As of now, Westbrook is "questionable." Likely if he does play it won't be much.

Which would further emphasize the passing game. While Eagles and Bears are #1 and #4 respectively vs the run, they are only midpack and near bottom vs the pass. Tho of course these are stats from a season still very young.

Still, I'd expect a lot of passing, and so the OVER.

Regarding my 11-0 record this week in college play, I'll say more (LOL) next week about that happening. Right now it'll suffice to state that (1) you will NOT find me on the main board, swathed in a huge testosterone rush, strutting like a banty rooster; and (2) it was strictly an anomaly.

(Kudos to those who know the meaning of that last word . . . without looking it up! And double kudos if you did and are also a member of the HDG . . . .)

[ritehook]

College - Saturday Oct 4 *** NFL Sunday Oct 5

Last week plays went 12-2 ATS. Or 12-3 as the parlay blew when Andy Reid show a lack of imagination by insisting on repeating trying to jam the ball into the goal line by sending a back up a bottled up middle. A score at least would have given me a push on the par.

Three of the plays, Ore St and the two totals plus the par were for a half unit. The rest one unit,

I did make a typing error on one of the totals, but it was clear what I meant. I typed Ind for the Iowa/Northwestern game, but as the second part (Northwestern) was right, as was the total, 42. It was clear what I was saying.

Mention this as I note from the thread views that maybe 20-40 folks have broken thru the gates and are checking the plays.

Of course, that's ok by me.

The 11-0 hit in college was nice. Kind of reminds me when I had a small tout service ten years ago and came out hitting 10 two-team parlays in a row.

Very hard to do that, ten 2-teamers in a row. And very hard to go 11-zip in college. You need some Magic Rain from the Gods of Gambling - or a blip in the Law of Averages.

Which is why I don't need anyone betting the house - even the foreclosed house - on my picks. Because the law of averages will catch up with me. And with you. (And check my results for the first two weeks of the season.)

I don't bet anyone else's picks, and in fact never even look at those of others until I make, play and post here my own.

Here are the first and main flock of my plays this week. I will likely have another college and at least one more NFL play by Saturday.

TWO TEAM PARLAY

TEXAS TECH -7 (Kansas State) WIN

Everyone reasonably competent at capping foots has his own approach. Whatever works.

Mine is to give a quick check only of the stats - too early for me, I look at them a lot closer next week.

Right now I'm looking mainly at schedules, scores, and key games. Matchups, so to speak.

T Tech scheduled, inside their first four games, two 1-AA teams (which will not help them later on with the computer polls). And their two !-A foes were Nevada and SMU.

But they are a solid team, with a dynamite offense. This week they play on the road at Manhattan (KS, not NY).

K State opened vs N. Texas, which of of Div 1-AA quality. IE, very little. They wiped them out. Then, they smacked AA Montana St. Then they lost, by 9 pts, at mediocre Louisville. And then at home squuzed out a narrow win over Lafayette, which put up 37 pts as 3 td dogs.

If T Tech played Louisville, even on the road, I feel they would beat them by two TDs or more. Both teams have good QBs, and despite some wind blowing in Manhattan on Saturday, the scoring should be high.

I'll bank on the Red Raiders outscoring K St by over a TD.

TOLEDO +7.5 (Ball State) LOSE

At 5-0 SU Ball looks like they're on track for the MAC championship. And they can score. Their victims include Indiana and Navy.

Toledo is only 2-2 SU. And they lost badly last week, at home, to a bad Fla International team.

But the game before that was a very tough home lost - 54-55 in double overtime, to a solid Fresno team.

Those kinds of games often destroy the equilibrium of teen-age and early 20s athletes. I personally NEVER bet teams coming off close OT losses like that. In fact, you could probably grind a profit fading them.

But Tom Amstutz, an excellent coach, is also very powerful at home off a loss. And this is his 3rd game in a row at home. And, it's a Homecoming game for the Rockets.

I'll take the 7.5 pts and hope Toledo can break the win streak of Ball. Or at least get the cover.

Parlay is for a half unit, LOSE

OTHER PLAYS

TEXAS TECH/KANSAS ST OVER 66 (half unit) WIN
DUKE +13.5 LOSE
NORTHERN ILLINOIS +16 WIN

NFL

CAROLINA -9.5 WIN

Pointspreads taken from the Scores & Odds site about an hour ago, 9PM pacific, midnite EST. All plays one unit unless otherwise specified.

Several more plays will be posted by Sat morning or early afternoon. Or Friday afternoon.

[ritehook]

Needless to say the teams I use for the two-team parlays I also wager on straight for one unit

[ritehook]

Adding Nfl Game -week 5

NFL OCT 5

ARIZONA -1 one unit WIN

Number from Scores & Odds 10 minutes ago.

Looking at number for one more college and one more NFL. To post Fri nite or Sat Morn.

[themajormt]

I enjoy your little thread you have going on here... GL this weekend

[ritehook]

I enjoy your little thread you have going on here... GL this weekend

Thanks. GL to you as well. A commodity we all need, even with the sharpest of skills (due to the weird shape of the football).

If I strike out this weekend I'm going to petition Congress for a bailout.