PRIVATE ZONE: No Admittance!! 2 Team Pars, etc

[yisman]

Bowling Green is a better team. I'm going the other way.

[ritehook]

Bowling Green is a better team. I'm going the other way.

Fair enough. BG also has motivation, they need a win to become bowl eligible. But I did bet Rockets, and on the ML, the beloved departing HC has been good to me over the years, and with teeners and early 20s emotion is a big factor, sometimes overruling stats

[ritehook]

College Week 14 Nov 29, Nfl Week 13 Nov 30

I did the write this morning, on a long plane ride. If not, would be too frazzled, unravelled, and jetlagged to write it. (Fuk Orville and Wilbur . . .)

HOUSTON -3 (Rice) 1 unit

It's at the Owls' stadium, but being in Houston there should be at least as many Cougar fans in attendance. Both teams are airlines, but Houston D there slightly less crappy than Rice.

Not that, between the two, they could fight off a paraplegic hamster.

HOUSTON/RICE OVER 78 1/2 unit

"WE DON'T HAVE TO SHOW YOU NO STINKING DEFENSE!"


SOUTHERN MISS -15 (SMU) 1/2 unit

No, I sure don't like the way SMISS plays less than energetically on the road (anyone remember when this school were THE "road warriors?") And that SMU, fractured and re-building as they are under a guy named June, plays better at home than travelling.

But my stat scan during a spare moment staring at the Atlantic informs that Eagles should be able to control ball on ground vs one of the land's most horrific run defenses. And be motivated as well to get that 6th win and maybe grab a bowl of slop somewhere, for the new HC.

(There are now - what? - 100 bowls? President Obama needs to issue an Executive Order mandating a playoff!)


FLORIDA STATE +16.5 (Florida) 1 unit

The big rivalry game is in Tallahasee this year. And Noles lusting to take Gators out of the national title game. Mental lust isn't always enough to do the job (which is why pharmaceutical Spanish fly like Viagra was invented) but Fla St does have a good defense (usually). And Gators may be peeking ahead a tiny bit to their conf champ game with Bama.


SUNDAY, NOV 30, NFL:

BUFFALO 1ST HALF -3.5 (SF) 1 unit

Call it a trend or whatever, I'll play it as it lays till time tells me no. Did win yesterday with Phillies 1st half over Zona. (Just didn't have time or opportunity to get online to post)


I also had no time to check my totals record in college so far this year, but I think I'm 8-1. So like a dummy I made them all for a half unit, instead of a full one. That's because I've been doing college totals for only a few years, and still am not that comfortable with 'em. (They look too easy, and ain't nothin' easy when it comes to war with the bookies!!)

But next season I'll change all that and make 'em 10 Unit plays!! Or 100 Stars Game of the Year. 10,000 Star Games of the Century?

[ritehook]

College Plays Dec 3-6 -- NFL Dec 7

Not good LW, tho I did again hit a college total - I haven't had time to check but I think that puts me at 9-1 for the season on College Totals. (Were I in the tout biz I would now headline: 9-1 THIS YEAR ON COLLEGE TOTALS. Multiple categories, the old, tired (but effective) game of the touting fraternity.

WED Dec 3:

LA LAFAYETTE -5.5 (MTSU) 1/2 Unit

Cajuns are one of the top teams in the land in rushing, and the QB is in effect a running back. They can control the rock vs MTSU and even on the road squeeze out a cover. Tho this is what to me is the flaky Sun Belt, so half a unit bet

My other 3 picks are all based on the same premise: late in the season I look for the solid rush defenses, esp as underdogs. All three of the following so qualify, and I'll be betting 1 1/2 units on each game.

SAT Dec 6:

PITTSBURGH + 3 (UConn) 1/5 units

SOUTH FLORIDA +7.5 (W Va) 1/5 units

ALABAMA +9.5 (Florida) 1.5 units (will probably buy up to 10, or wait to see if it can crawl there on its own)

EAST CAROLINA/TULSA OVER 65.5 1/2 Unit

Golden Hurricane one of the best passing teams. ECU should also be able to score vs their half-baked defense. And yeah, I'm staying with the half unit - being a superstitious sort I fear if I bump it to one unit I'll go into the proverbial tank.

MISSOURI/OKLAHOMA OVER 78.5 1/2 Unit

These guys rank 7 and 2 respectively in passing efficiency, and 80 and 38 in PE defense. It is a very big number, but with OK running defenses it looks like they'll be parasailing most of the day.

(Numbers are from Scores and Odds about 20 minutes ago)

NFL Sunday Dec 7

CLEVELAND +14 (Tennesssee) 1/2 unit

Dorsey makes his first start in 3 years, but still can't be as bad as Quinn. And Browns have shown a defense the last few games. Hopefullly, their offense can also score with a "sneak attack". Call in the Zeros.

I'm tempted to go Under in this game (37.5) but NFL totals are tough, you shouldn;t bet them unless you're a professional meterologist.

I'll still be in a time crunch most of the next few weeks, but neverthess will try to do the bowls. Bad taste from last season, i doubt I'll be betting anywhere near as much as last season (even tho I think they added a few more bowls- the BS goes on and on)

Almost forget (and probably wish I'd had) the two team parlay: PITTSBURGH
SOUTH FLORIDA (1/2 unit)

My record on this is crappy. Big contrast from 2000 when I hit ten in a row out of the box. But as American Novelist Thomas Wolfe wrote in his classic: YOU CAN'T GO HOME AGAIN.

Amen to that.

[ritehook]

also almost forgot, the beer money suicide teaser

Pittsburgh
South Fla
Army
Alabama
Hawaii
Kansas City NFL
Cleveland NFL

[demize21]

looks like a good one BOL

[ritehook]

looks like a good one BOL

Ditto 4 U - we all need Lady Luck by our side

[ritehook]

NFL Selection Sun Dec 7

One more NFL selection:

KANSAS CITY +9 (Denver)

Broncos are probably the most hot/cold team in the league. Hard to tell each week which team will show up.

They are, in fact, 1-5 ATS at home this year. While Kansas City is 4-2 ATS on the road.

At -9 or higher this year (number taken 5 mins ago at Scores & Odds). tho it looks like it's heading south) the Broncos are 0-2. In fact, they lost SU both those games as heavy faves.

And, in the last 3 games, since Thigpen took over at the QB spot, Chiefs have scored a touchdown more on average than they did prior 12 games. Still not a scoring machine, by a long shot, but improving.

It is true that Denver is near the top in passing, and KC near the bottom in pass defense, and that is a concern. Nonetheless, I'll take a shot on Chiefs. If stats held up 100% we'd all be as wealthy as Warren (Buffet).

[ritehook]

NFL Wk 15 Dec 14, 15

This isn't the NFL foots board, but I started a separate thread for the bowls, so I'll finish the NFL season here.

Actually hit a 2 team parlay last week. Wow, call in the marching band. Or the clowns.

NFL SUNDAY

MIAMI -1/2 First Quarter (San Fran)

Frisco playing better with Hill at qb, but I'll stay with the West to East jetlag theory. Miami trying to get into playoffs.

DENVER +7.5 (Carolina)

Broncos are THE Jeckyll/Hyde team this season. Hard to tell how they'll play. Bu this season I've been fortunate (so far) in deciphering their readiness.

I think they'll be ready this week, vs Panthers. Latter just came off a big win on Mon nite vs a division rival, in the hotly contested NFC South.

Denver has already beaten (incl once on road) the other 3 teams in NFL South. I think they can add Carolina to the list, or at least keep it under the spot,with their strong passing attack.

Monday

CLEVELAND +14 (Philadelphia) [1/2 unit]

No, I'm not a Browns fan. Not from Cleveland (tho many moons ago I did live there, right off Euclid, with a pretty secretary, while I travelled the Midwest, selling stuff. That area is probably a war zone now.)

Just basing it on Philly having come off a big game LW vs division rival and leader NY Giants, and with a win in their pocket.

Philly's got Wash and Dallas on tap. My thinking is that Browns can keep it closer than the 2 tds they're being given.

BTW, I've noticed that the last couple weeks this thread is being put on the main board. Not me doing it, I like to stay in this little corner for the selections.

[ritehook]

NFL Week 16 - Sunday Dec 21 -08

1-2 LW.

I have two NFL plays right now, but am waiting on a couple of others, and will have and post those Friday or Sat.

I am putting the NFL on the College thread, because I stated out with both on this thread, and now have opened another thread for the bowls.

By Sat morning I may also have, on my bowl thread, a few picks for the first wave of the small army of bowls that the nabobs of college football are treating us to.

I have to believe that the pack of cretins who run this sport want to eventually get up to 60 bowls, so that every single Div 1-A (or whatever stupid name they've given it now) team can be in the post-season.

After all, that's the real reason these schmucks went to a unversal 12 game schedule, so that more teams would have a chance to go 6-6 and so become eligible for the ever increasing number of bowls.

NFL SUNDAY

PITTSBURGH -2 (Tennessee)

Both teams looking for playoff top seed, Titans missing a couple of starting defenders. It's in Nashville, but Steelers are 5-2 ATS on road. Line opened Tenn -1, and has moved 3 ticks to Pitt -2. (Or six ticks if you include half points)

PITTSBURGH/TENNESSEE Under 34.5 [1/2 unit]

I'm not big on NFL totals, but these are two of the top 4 defenses in the league. Even with some D Line injuries the Titans are strong defensively. And Steelers are best on D. The number of course is low, but I can see a final score of something like 17-10. Titans only scored 12 vs Houston LW

[ritehook]

Another week 16 play. I'll post the rest Sat, or Sun morning.

OAKLAND +7 (Houston) 1 unit

A "letdown play."

LW Houston squeezed out a one pt win over Tennessee, their first victory over the Titans after 7 straight losses. That win last week was, in fact, their "Super Bowl."

Oakland 10th in rushing in league, Houston ranks #24 in defending same.

[ritehook]

NFL Sunday Dec 21 -Final 3 Plays

The last three I'm betting - two are weather related.

TAMPA BAY (FIRST QUARTER) -1/2 (San Diego) [1 unit]

Chargers have lost all four games SU this year travelling 3 or more time zones.

This is an early game, kickoff at 10 in the morning for those on the West Coast. And for the SD players too.

Madden and Al can pooh-pooh this idea all they want, but it's been effective. Esp when a better team plays a lesser team, and SD is the lesser team now. Garcia also looks like he'll start.

NEW ENGLAND/ARIZONA UNDER 43 {1/2 UNIT]

I was going to do a time zone play here on the Pats, but with the brutal weather due Sunday in the Boston area (high winds, rain or sleet or snow) I don't want to risk both teams playing mostly in the middle of the field, esp in first quarter or half.

So I'll make a moderate wager on the under, and hope for misery.

NEW YORK GIANTS/CAROLINA UNDER 37 (1/2 UNIT)

Same thing as above. And hope the meteorologists are right - with all the satellites and radar they still blow it now and then.

**************************************** ***
Looking forward (tho not necessarily to bet it) to next week's Philly/Dallas game -- provided both teams are still alive for a wild card spot.

[ritehook]

NFL Sunday, Dec 27 WK 17

Santa has scrammed. And took some of my stuff, instead of leaving me goodies. Old blackguard bastard.

But then, 'tis my own fault. I knew I should never play NFL totals, no matter what.

"Son," my dear old Mama said when she appeared in a night before Christmas dream, "I told you many times not to play NFL totals! What you doing, going againt my counsel?"

"Well, Ma," replied I, "two of the three were weather-related, really crummy conditions . . ."

"Pshaw!" she interrreupt. "Those meteriologists don't know what they're talkin' 'bout. I know for a fact that thunder and lightning are caused by God and the angels bowling _____"

"But Ma . . . "

"Never you mind! I know what I"m talking about! And the storms, and hurricanes, and earthquakes. Know what causes those?"

Without waiting for a reply she shouted: "The bratty little angel kids dropping their drawers and crapping and peeing and puking all over the place. That's what causes all that stuff!"

"Ok, Ma. I'll never play an NFL total again, not even if there's Armageddon . . ."

"Well, that there is coming this century. Can't and won't tell you when, but everyone down there will be scared witless, you mark my words."

"OK, Ma, good to see you, so to speak. Hope I get you again as my ma in the next incarnation."

"Don't think so, sonny. I don't want to be reborn in New Jersey ever again!"

"Me neither, Ma. So maybe the French Riviera, or the beach in Rio in the nest one."

But by that time she had disappeared in a golden glow.

SUNDAY

NY JETS -2.5 (Miami)

Miami's hot, Jets are not. So why this pick. Well, if I didn't have so much holiday cheer I'd explain, but take my word ....... at least it's not a Total. But Jets need both a win and some help. Whenever Favre looks horrible, is when he turns it around.

BUFFALO +6.5 (New England)

Another strange pick. Pats after all fighting for post season, Bills finished till next year. But they showed last week vs Denver that they will fight to the end. And a team always loves to take a big glamor team in their division down with them.

I will have more NFL plays (but no totals) on Fri or Sat, to end this thread.

[ritehook]

Still don't know how this thread ends up on the main Players Talk board. I ain't puttin' it there.

Oh well, last week. I'll thread anew when the playoffs are due

[ritehook]

NFL DECEMBER 28 - Week 17

Final week. As a rule I don't bet more than a game or two in the final week. A lot has been decided by this time, usually. But this year there are a lot of things to be finalized re the playoffs.

Not to mention that in the mid-90s I did a multi-year study of the outcomes of games in the final week or two of the NFL season, re the teams that "needed" something to get into the postseason, vs the teams that were completely out of it,.

Surprise - I found there was no bearing at all on the pointspread outcome. Not to say that in certain situations that might be the case - surely it is. Just that as a general rule betting on a team solely because "they need to win" against a team that's going home after the last game is unlikely to fatten your bankroll. Unless supplemented with other good reasons.

Sometimes, a team that is out of it, if playing a division rival - especially - who is still in the playoff hunt, will go all out to boot the playoff hopeful team. Example: Washington last week playing very hard, to stick it to not-far-away division rival Philadelphia. (Which is the main reason I'm betting against the Skins this week. They accomplished their mission last Sunday)

I've already posted the Jets and Buffalo.

And, Tampa Bay -3 First Quarter [1 unit]

The West to East angle with an early game doesn't always work (what does?) but despite what Madden & Al say it's worth chasing till if flops all around. (You will prob have to pay -120 to bet into this)

SAN FRANCISCO -3 (Washington) [1 unit]

As noted above, for the soon to be on vacation Redskins, last week's socking to the Eagles and likely ruining their playoff chances was their "Super Bowl." And Niners still seem to be playing hard. You can likely get the 3 at -105 at full juice books, or try waiting till Sunday morning to see if it moves to -2.5

DENVER +8 (San Diego) [1 unit]

Monday nite game, to get into the postseason.

Gunslinger Cutler (someone called him a "young Bret Favre" - hmm, I think it was Favre!)must be salivating at facing one of the worst pass defenses in pro football - only Seattle is worse.

(I used to think Charger GM Smith was the cat's pajamas - but after using his first or second round picks on mainly defensive backs since he took over the job, the current mess is what he has to show for it.)

SD may win, Denver also is bad vs the pass, but I think the points being granted the Broncos are a bit too much. Wish I had gotten it earlier in the week, when it was 9.5.

Hmm, 5 plays for getaway week. A lot, hope I don't regret it. I was
thinking of making a bet on the Over -- but in the end remembered my promise to Mom.

Finally, cheers to those doughty souls who actually ploughed thru my ramblings this past season. I know, I talk to much. Same thing in real life. Once dated a Japanese girl - neither of us could get a word in edgewise when vertical. You know the old saw: "I don't date Suki any more because Suki Yaki too much."

Gal was a dentist, too. Had a thing about mouths - no bad jokes, puhleze.

I will open an NFL Playoff thread if I decide to do those. But I will be back here one more time to post season-long results - just don't have time right now. If someone does a public handicap, gratis or paid, one is, IMO, obligated to show season long results,come what may. I see a lot of threads open by 'cappers here and on the main board that disappear after a few innings - for obvious reasons.

I know that my picks ended in the red this season. Despite one 11-0 week in college foots, and I think a 12-2 season long showing on College totals. But it's really the whole cow that counts, not just the filet mignon.

[JBC77]

Good thread man, like reading perspectives on selections. Didn't know you had this going.....