PRIVATE ZONE: No Admittance!! 2 Team Pars, etc

[ritehook]

And not just the shape of the ball.

It's the shape the head of the kids is in, the day of the game.

Are these 19, 20 and 21 year olds thinking of the gangbang they have going on that night, rather than the next snap?

Did the QB slight the mom of one of his offensive lineman at Parent's Day last week?

Hundreds of sh1t things like this, that we never know about, can and do skew the results of some games.

[ritehook]

College Week 6 - Nfl Week 5 (final Plays)

OREGON +15.5 (1/2 unit) LOSE

I like kicking the big guy when he's down.

But the Ducks are down to their 3rd string QB, Jerry Masoli. He played well in his first start last week, vs Wash St. But beating Wash St is not something you'd star on your resume.
On the other hand, last year the Trojans lost at home to Stanford, who were starting a first-time-ever QB.

The number is from the Scores & Odds site about 20 minutes ago. If you have multiple outs you should be able to find a few 16s. I did, about 10 minutes ago.

NFL - MIAMI +6.5 (1 unit) WIN

Chargers did me in last week when a tired and dispirited Raider team let them score some extra pts to cost me the cover. Long plane ride to Miami, who are slowly resurging under the watchful eye of Mr Tuna.

Again, there are some 7s out there.

CONDITIONAL PLAY: ATLANTA (NO LINE YET) NO PLAY

I kind of think Rodgers will start, full of pain killers. It's one of those so-called "game time decisions." (Like, Sat nite or early Sun morn) But if Flynn or the 3rd stringer starts, I'll take Atlanta. And use the closing line at Scores & Odds to judge the win or loss.

And back next week

[ritehook]

College Plays Sat Oct 11

Last week 6-3 ATS, or 6-4, as the parley blew. (And, if you're looking at the prior weeks for this cap, you'll see that I made some changes: like, changed half the losers into winners so that I can crow on the main board. Cockadoodle Doo!!! Actually, all I did, for my own benefit, was to mark and colorize the wins and losses.)

Perfect last week in the NFL, 3-0. Tho two of my college plays scored a total of 0 points between them.

And I shoulda coulda woulda have made big winner Carolina my second half of the parlay. Tough D at home vs a KC team that came off a huge win vs quirky Denver.

The D of Carolina, and the fact that the KC scoring binge vs Denver was strictly an anomaly (my favorite word) shoulda put me squarely on the Panthers for the second parlay leg.,

Because teams that do something hugely anomalous almost always revert to form next game.

As KC did. So why didn't I use Carolina as a part of the parlay? Because I hadn't been doing that great of late in the NFL, but been doing OK in college.

Ya wanna handicap, ya gotta be like a good quarterback. Forget the past errors (and triumphs) and look at each snap as starting anew.

Lesson learned. (Hopefully)

This week was tough coming up with plays in college ball - I had to dig deep into the stat pit.

Doesn't mean the plays are good, or bad. Just that they took more work to get a handful. And, this week I will, for a change, do a brief write-up on each of my 6 college plays.
________________________________________ ___________

(The starred plays, or asterisked, are the two parlay teams. Yeah, I so promised, and so will keep butting my head against the parlay wall, despite the sage advice of that great scamdicapper, K. Sturgeon)

The spreads or totals are from Scores and Odds about 30 mintues ago,

VANDERBILT -2.5

Gee, this looks almost like a "trap" game. A 5-0 team vs a 1-4 team. And that one win of the Bulldogs was vs an AA team.

Yeah, it's at Hattiesburg. But still . . .

I checked weather and injuries. Maybe I'm missing something but even on the road I have to make the 'Dores a 10 pt fave. Unless possibly pags is on Miss State and driving down the spot.(I never check anyone's plays before making my own, and posting them here.)

Bulldogs will have big probs stopping the ground game of the Dores. (Vandy averages 183 ypg on ground, Miss St gives up 178 ypg) I got them for one unit, but wary of the trap I won't make them a part of the parlay.

TEMPLE +7.5 Half Unit

Owls were blown out by Penn State, but 3 of their other 4 losses were by a total of 9 points. Not against doggos either, but good teams like UConn and W. Michigan.

And they do play well on the road. C Michigan has 3 wins total, one vs an AA team, and very narrow victories against winless (vs 1A) Ohio and agaisnt Buffalo. They will have to slow the Chip passing attack tho.

NORTH CAROLINA -8.5

Tarheels would likely have made it into my parlay, if it had been only -7. (I may put them into a two-team teaser, like bringing an 8.5 down to 2.5, crossing 4 key numbers.)

Preseason, on this board, I picked NC to win the ACC (and bet them at 8-1 to do so, tho I rarely put in college future bets). Sure, there's Va Tech, Wake, G. Tech, Fla St, BC--- but Heels have as good a chance. Competitive league, the ACC. (Later, I'm gonna get that old thread and past the address here)

Hope I'm not jinxing those tar babies. The link:

http://forum.sbrforum.com/college-football-handicapping/55743-losing-07-team-will-make-major-bowl-year.html

Like the Irish, North Carolina is best grinding it out on the grass. NDame won four games - all at home, Their only time on the road they were soundly whipped by Michigan State. This is but their 2nd road game of the season, and away from the watchful eyes of Touchdown Jesus I'm on the Heels.

NEVADA/NEW MEXICO ST OVER 67.5 HALF UNIT

Nevada can't stop the pass; New Mexico St can't stop the run. And Wolfpack can run; and Aggies can pass.

There is snow predicted in Reno on Friday and Friday night, up to 2 inches, but just a flurry Sat morn. Hopefully, they have the field covered (it's Field Turf) and the surface will be reasonably dry.

TEXAS TECH -20.5 *

Red Raiders lead nation in passing, and rank # 16 on the more relevant stat of Passing Efficiency. Huskers are down at #79 in Pass Efficiency Defense. And T Tech has enough of a run D to slow down Lucky and company.

Nebbie did play a tougher schedule, but hard to see them keeping up with the Tech Air Show. And Raiders not reluctant to pile up the points. (First half of the parlay)

AIR FORCE -10.5 *

SDSU sure does know the Falcon option attack - they play AF almost every year. But knowing it and knowing what is coming their way doesn't mean they can defend it.

Aztecs are two or three from the bottom in rushing defense, at 117, I think. They aren't much for running themselves, relying on a passing game for the few points they're usually able to score.

Even at home, in Mission Valley, Aztecs look seriously up against it here. I did buy the half point, but for record-keeping simplicity will keep to the Scores and Odds line.

May be back Fri nite or Sat morn, or both, with another college play. And with any NFL picks, tho the pros don't look as promising to me this week as last. (Second half of the parlay)

ALL PLAYS FOR ONE UNIT UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED

[Mic Lowrey]

Seriously? You read all that?

ahahaha

i tried but couldnt go on anymore.... i need what he had...maybe i can stay focused more for my english work

[ritehook]

LOL!

Just overdose on Ritalin, you'll get there.

[ritehook]

Nfl Play Oct 12

Only one NFL play on Sunday:

PHILADELPHIA -4.5

Back to the same old well.

Westbrook out. So is WR Reggie Brown.

But despite this, despite the cross-country jaunt, I'll take the Eagles and lay the points.

Because this is a "statement" game for Philly. Lose it and go to 2-4, and out of any postseason , for all practical purposes.

They have better personnel than that Niners, even with Westbrook MIA. I expect rookie WR Jackson to have a big game, in his old college stomping area.

A one unit play.

If I have any more college plays I'll post them Sat morning. I'm outta here for a nice non-football Friday night.

[awhitejackson]

Appreciate the writeups hook, I really like AF, TT, and Vandy...Will take a closer look at the others now too. GL

[Sforz]

keep rolling ritehook!

[I.R.B]

Nice... I have a few of the same plays tomorow... GL

[ritehook]

Thanks to all, gents! And good luck to all, a commodity always needed in this crazy game.

And we also need some fun in doing this. I play to win money season long, but there are other ways of investing to do that in a saner way. But --- not nearly as much fun!!!

Final Play This Week:

STANFORD +7

Number taken from Scores and Odds about 40 minutes ago.

[ritehook]

Play College Wk 8 Oct 18 - Nfl Wk 7 Oct 19

Didn't get the time yet to mark and color them, but last week was 4-4 ATS or 4-5 including the cursed parlay. Only 3-4 (3-5 with par) in college.

Checking some of the other prominent posters on this board, it seems few came out positive in college last week.

Plays for this week - and I will have more, most likely. Tonite, Fri,and Sat morning.

Pointspreads are from the Scores & Odds site about 40 minutes ago.

COLLEGE

KANSAS +19.5 (Oklahoma) 1/2 Unit

I'll usually take a bcs 5-1 SU team taking those kinds of points. KU's only loss was by 3 pts on the road, to a VG S Fla team.

Oklahoma fought hard and tough last week, and lost. Sometimes (not all the time) that takes a bit of starch out of a team. But they are at hme in Norman, so I'll make it a half of a unit.

SOUTHERN MISS +1.5 (Rice)

Rice likes to toss the rock, S Miss does not excel in defensing the pass. But --- S Miss like to run and does it well, and th Owls are pretty dismal when it comes to stopping the ground game.

Usually the running game wins this kind of contest, so for me S Miss is the play.

NEW MEXICO -14 (SDSU) FIRST HALF OF PARLAY

Aztecs are among the worst in Div 1A at stopping the run. And Lobos are a good running team. Two tds are a lot to lay, but the game is in Albuquerque, the City of Lights. Nice place, first time I drove on it the old Rt 66 was still there.

San Diego State is dismal, witha succession of horrible athletic directors. Long won't be with this team much longer,another year maybe.

They got to hire a guy with strong local ties, connectins with So Cal Highschool coaches, to get a leg up in recruiting, whre it all begins. Instead, it's one lame HC after another, a crummy parade.

Wonder if Don Coryell could be coaxed out of retirement?

STANFORD -2.5 (UCLA)

Cardinal has played will under the brash Jim Harbaugh. All three of their losses, tho, were on the road, as it this contest vs Bruins. UCLA, however, is weak and rebuilding, and this looks like a win for the bright boys from Palo Alto.

TROY -10 (Florida International)

I'm not much into the Sun Belt, and my only bet there this year so far has lost. But this year Troy seems the best of the SB. True tht FIU has won last 3, after being knocked about in their first three by good bcs teams.

Troy is good, and should cover the spot here.

NFL

WASHINGTON -7.5 (Cleveland) SECOND HALF OF PARLAY

I bought the hook here.

Double Bounce Play

All plays one unit unless noted otherwise.

Back Fri nite or Sat morn, or both

[ritehook]

Late Sat Nite, Oct 18 (And NFL Sun Oct 19)

Wasn't able to get on with a few more college plays and a few more NFL.

The day-long tech probls the site experienced (they say server prob in CR, I'm bettin' a DoS attack from blackmailers)lasted all day, apparently, and I was not able to post.

Kind of defeated what I was doing, putiing all my plays for this season on one thread. I may put them on an external hard drive. Just wanted the thread for my own reconrds. Ah, well, such is life.

Here are my NFL plays for Sunday Oct 1: Already noted Washington - 7.5, and that i purchesed hook. The first half of the parlay won cruising (70-7) so 'Skins are second half. With my luck with pars they'll probably get scalped.

AND:

NY GIANTS -10 (I'm quoting th spread I got today in the AM, when I was ready to pst this, tho it likley is the same, or similar) Line taken from Scores & Odds this morning.

BUFFALO PK First Quarter (Half Unit)

NY GIANTS -3 First Quarter (Half Unit)

Both the latter plays are the West to East angles, morning games. Mostly what did in the Chargers a few weeks ago wehn they winged to MIami for what was for them a 10Am kickoff.

Scores & Odds do not give quarter of half lines, so I got the numbers here from the US-neutral Pinnacle site. Again, around 7AM. Just too tired to re-obtain a fresh number

[ritehook]

Week 9 College For Sat Oct 25

Here early (Tues) as I just bet one team of the 4-6 I'm tracking, thinking the number may rise.

Last week 4-4-1 ats, tho I did bet Troy at Skybook and got the free half point, and so turned a push into a win.

But, the parlay also dumped (again) when the Skins won but didn't cover.

BTW, I had a 3 team teaser with Wash on the rear end,and that won (it was N Mexico, Giants and Skins). I normally don't play teasers, or if I do I put in a two teamer, which I feel makes more sense.

But last season a horse playing friend asked me to give him 3 teams each week that the could put into a teaser, just for viewing fun. I did, and he came out a very solid winner.

So this season I bet the same ones I was giving him, and stated with Wk 3. And I'm 5-1 on these three team teasers.
So, I'm going to include them here - now watch the fukkers lose big time!

Also, last week I think all my college losers were by only a few points, that would have been covered by a teaser. So I may also put in a five team teaser!! What the hell, go for it.

Following is the one bet I made today, and the number is taken from the Scores & Odds site about 40 mins ago.

BALL STATE -24 (Eastern Michigan) 1 unit

While I can't say I'm ever comfortable laying these kind of points (I'd rather take them), I just feel that the Cardinals will run all over the Eagles, control the ball and the clock.

I am looking at another 4-6 college plays (checking injuries and odds) and will post them between Thursday and Sat morn. That's asssuming that the electronic blackmailers don't again shut down the site. (Oh,yeah, SBR John says they're not blackmailers, just fun guys playing computer games, maybe for beer money bet between them. OK. I sometimes lull myself to sleep with the old Monkees tune, "I'm a Believer.")

[ritehook]

Trivia Question: How many Div 1A college teams (yeah, 1A, screw the NCAA with that new designation, trying to brainwash us into accepting the bowls forever and ever) have the nickname Cardinals, or Cardinal?

Like Ball St. No fair checking your preseason magazine or the Net.

And if you got that one, what's the most popular college team nickname?

[ritehook]

Answering the trivia quiz: Ball, Louisville and Stanford. Did I miss anyone?

And "Tigers" is the most popular college sports nickname. Tho Bulldogs, Wildcats, etc have a fair share.

[ritehook]

Another play for College Sat Oct 25, and what I think may be all my NFL plays.

Alabama/Tennessee Under 41 Half Unit

Alabama is good all around. And while the Vols O is MIA this season, the D is shining.

Knoxville will likely get rain on Saturday. It's not the reason I made the play, tho - rain can go either way regarding scoring.

I think so far this season I'm maybe 4-0 or so on totals. Wish I was betting a full unit on 'em! But I won't switch now - those angry jealous gods of gambling will punish me if I do.

And btw, I'm not dragging this out for fun. I'm still looking at other college plays, with questionable injury situations and also dogs who i think will rise later this week.

As soon as I bet them myself come here to list 'em. Even tho I have a sh1tload to do today.

Friday or Sat Ill be back with them, and the teasers and parlay. Here are the NFL teams I'm betting this week:

BALTIMORE -7 (Oakland)

Ravens do still have the good D, despite dumping a few weeks ago vs Indy. And their running game is coming alive.

The Chaos Raiders, with a new HC, are playing what to them is morning, and tho they did Ok vs Bills in Sept on road I'm betting they won't repeat that performance vs blackbirds.

NEW ORLEANS +3 (San Diego)

I did a rant the other day on main board about the NFL arrogance in going global -game is in London. They asked two teams to volunteer for this crass marketing effort (didn't NFL Europe fail due to lack of interest there?)and Spanos and Tom whazzizname of the Saints stupidly stepped forward.

At least NO just came off 3 straight home games. Chargers in last three weeks have flown to Buffalo and Miami - and lost both games. I know they, as well as Saints, have been in London since Monday, to deter jet lag, but the schedule still has to be brutal. Plus, NO can hold their own vs a not-as-good SD team in 08 as they were in 07.

Rain likely in London on Sunday - what else is new?

DALLAS -1.5 (Tampa)

Statement game for Dallas, even without Romo.

Boys must make noise. Or postseason may slip away. Also may be playing for the HCs job.

Dallas is still a good team - and they are home, where they are 2-1 SU, and the one loss was by 2 pts. Tampa is the same way -not as good on the road.

Next time I post I should have all my plays for this week, including my suicide parlay, and two teasers!!

[ritehook]

Wk 9 College, Wk 8 NFL - balance of plays

Running late here, as i was also doing a cap for the Breeders Cup - mostly longshots, posted them on main forum.

I'll just give the picks right now, and back a little later with a short write up on some of them. I have no plays at the top of the hours, but one (Ky) at the half hour.

KENTUCKY +25.5

NAVY - 11.5

NEW MEXICO STATE -13

ARIZONA +15

(Earlier was on Ball St and the under in Ten/Alab)
Lines taken from scores and odds site a half hour ago. Later

[ritehook]

Let me also get my suicide parlay up here:
N MEXICO STATE
BALTIMORE (NFL) -7

And, a suicide teaser: (6 pts)
NEVADA
NAVY
BALL ST
TROY
N MEXICO STATE
(Fun bet, not assigning any units to it)

And the same 3 team teaser I've been passing on to a friend, mentioned it last week:

For a half unit:
NEW MEXICO ST (TEASE TO -7)
NY JETS (TEASE TO -8)
DALLAS (TEASE TO +4.5)

[ritehook]

Brief write-up on the college plays, or some of them, that I haven't already done:

KENTUCKY (Fla)

Ky actually has a defense this year, and catch Gators in a bit of a sandwich. (LSU last out, Georgia next week). It is Florida's homecoming game, but that doesn't always motivate the players. Every game at Florida is "homecoming." I'm thinking Ky has a decent chance to keep this under the spot.

NAVY (SMU)

Starting QB for Navy is out here, the guy with the long Hawaiian name. His backup can't pass as well, but can run. Mids are #4 in rushing, vs Mustangs rush D ten spots from cellar. SMU can toss th rock, but they won't control it much of the game

Added later - too much on my plate today, that'll have to be it

[ritehook]

For Nov 1 Week 10 College Plays

6-3 ATS last week. 3-3 in college, 3-0 NFL. But the two exotics for a half unit (teaser and parlay) blew, so I'm 6-4 for the weekend.

GEORGIA +5.5 (Florida)

Cocktail party, woopee. Whille Florida in their sole loss only went down by a single point (to Ole Miss), Georgia lost by 11 in their only misstep. But to Alabama.

Bulldogs played a bit tougher schedule than did Gators. But these teams do look evenly matched, and Gator Rb Moody is questionable for this. I'll take the points at the neutral site.

SAN JOSE STATE -16.5 (Idaho) 1/2 Unit

Idaho cost me last week by winning SU vs NM State. They remain at home, so are likely feeling pretty good. But they should be brought down to earth this week, by the Spartan defense, crafted by old Desert Stormer Dick Tomey. SJ State isn't quite good enough to beat an OK BCS team, nor a very good non-BCS (like Boise St) but should be good enough to tie a rock to the Vandals.

NEW MEXICO STATE +20.5 (Boise St) 1/2 Unit

The number seem a few points too high, for the Aggies playing in Las Cruces. (Watch out for the predatory highway patrol if driving the freeway thru that burg.)

Yes, Boise can defend the pass, the Ags bread and butter. But I do like the home team to put up a good show, after the road defeat last week. But I will keep it to a half unit, as NMSt seems to have a couple WRs still out of action, altho they are deep in that position.

GEORGIA TECH -2.5 (Florida St)

Noles are ranked # 3 in total defense, but Jackets are # 12.
And GTech did it against a more difficult sched (Fla State opened season against TWO AA teams!) Home in Atlanta, I'll be betting the Wreck covers the spot.

TCU -14 (UNLV)

No doubt that despite the record showing only 3 wins for UNLV, they are playing better this year than in the past few. Trying to save Sanford his job. They put up a good battle last two games vs good teams (AF and BYU)

However ---- TCU has a crushing defense (#2 nationally, just behind USC)and they can control the ball with a potent running game. Even in Vegas I can see the Frogs leaving UNLV in the desert dust.

I will be back later this week, maybe with a another team or a total, and of course the NFL. And not to forget of course my suicide teaser, regular teaser,and 2 team parlay - I must be out of my mind . . . .

[All plays one unit unless otherwise noted. Lines taken from the scores & odds site about an hour ago.]

[ritehook]

For NOV 1 and NOV 2 - College and NFL

An added play in college, 3 in NFL, the (groan) 2 team parlay, and a 3 team (groan) teaser.

RICE -2.5 (UTEP)

Rice - that one time option team - now ranks high in passing and pass efficiency. UTEP is also solid in passing, tho not as good as the Owls. Neither team is much in Pass D, nor for that matter in Run D.

I did look into an Over here, but just am not comfortable betting into a 77 (had to be, for me, 68 tops, California Dreamin')

NFL

BUFFALO -5.5

TENNESSEE -5.5

DENVER -3 (1.5 UNITS)

2 TEAM PARLAY

TENNESSEE(nfl)/DENVER (1/2 UNIT)

3 TEAM TEASER (6 POINTS)

BUFFALO/TENNESEE/DENVER

[NUMBERS TAKEN FROM SCORES & ODDS SITE ABOUT AN HOUR AGO]

I may on Friday or Sat have another NFL or college bet

[ritehook]

NFL WK 9 - November 2

A final NFL play. And of course I can't forget my college Suicide Teaser.

NFL SUNDAY

DALLAS +9

In general, if a club is showing a 60% winning rate, and getting 9 pts in the NFL, I'm pretty much going to bet 'em, even on the road against a powerhouse. (But one that did lose to Cleveland). Over the course of years I'll cover the number much more than not.

And my Suicdde College Teaser - I don't assign a unit to this because altho I am now betting it,it is for "beer and hot dog money."

TCU - LA LAFAYETTE - TULSA - KENT - S. MISS - GEORGIA (I bet it as a 6 pt tease)

If I have any late college plays I'll post them here Sat morning

[ritehook]

College Week 10 Nov 1

2 late college plays (or as the touts would say, "late telephone plays") These are "late internet plays."

BAYLOR +21.5 (Mizzou)

TEXAS TECH +3.5 (Texas) 1/2 Unit

No time for a write-up.
Spreads are from Scores & Odds, about 30 minutes ago

[ritehook]

College Wek 11 - Wed Nov 5 & Thurs Nov 6

Not too good LW, the NFL tipped an outhouse over on me. OK in college, pros finally nailed me.

Running short on time here, three plays for the midweek games:

WED NOV 5


NORTHERN ILLINOIS +9 (Ball St) ONE UNIT

Huskies lost 3 games this year -- by a total of 11 points! And it wasn't Little Sisters of the Poor they were losing to. Two of the three losses were to BCS teams.

They rank high (top 10 I think) in Total Defense. I understand that Ball is a good undefeated team, and at home, but 9 pts (I got 9.5 and so can yu if yu have enough outs) is too much here.

I also made a small bet (under a half units, so won't count it in the offiical totals) on the money line.

NORTHERN ILLINOIS/BALL ST Under 47.5 HALF UNITGood defenses.

THURS NOV 6

UTAH +2 (TCU) ONE UNIT

Both clubs super vs the rush. May be to win one must go to air. Utah can hold its own there. Utes at home have as much chance to win as Frogs.

I also made a money line bet on Utah, but won't count it as a play (less than a unit)

Scores/Odds site supplied the numbers.

[ritehook]

College Plays Wk 11 - + teaser, parlay, suicide teaser

1-2 last two days, first totals bet I lost this season. N. Ill just folded their once good D.

Good thing Utes pulled it off in the end.

I'm listing my college plays here for Saturday. Don't have time to do any write-ups. In fact, since I'm on both the road and in the air half the time from next Monday to early December, I have to suspend this thread after this weekend.

Maybe will be back for bowls - I sincerely hope to do a lot better bowling this year.

And am back tomorrow for any late College plays and NFL - not to many int he latter but I did put Miami in a teaser.

TONIGHT, FRIDAY NOV 7

NEVADA -2 (Fresno)

SATURDAY, NOV 8

RUTGERS - 14 (Syracuse)
VANDERBILT +24 (Florida) 1/2 UNIT
STANFORD +14 (Oregon)
USC - 22.5 (California)
NEW MEXICO -4.5 (Unlv)

Two Team Parlay:
NEVADA/NEW MEXICO 1/2 Unit

3 Team Teaser
Nevada/New Mexico/Miami NFL -3 on teaser 1/2 Unit

Suicide Teaser( I bet only beer and pretzel money on this)
BYU/Nevada/Vandy/Stanford/USC/New Mexico/Rutgers/Miami NFL

I may bet Miami NFL 1st half, but I'll be back Sat morn for the Nfl and the rest of college, if any.

Pointspreads taken from the Scores & Odds site about 40 minutes ago.

[ritehook]

Week 11 College, Week 10 NFL - Late Plays

btw, the only thing I came back to edit yesterday was to change the Suicide Parlay to Suicide Teaser. As it should have been - tho both are, long-term, suicide-makers.

40 minutes to first kick, let me go fast:

NORTH CAROLINA ST +3.5 (Duke) 1/2 Unit

TEXAS A & M +27.5 (Oklahoma) 1/2 Unit


NFL

DETROIT +6.5 (Jax)

MIAMI FIRST HALF -4.5 (Seattle)

Pointspreads taken from Scores & Odds site about 20 mins ago. Except for the First Half (Miami NFL) as S&O does not provide half or quarter lines.

As noted, schedules keep me from continuing this. Hope to be back by the time the bowls roll around.

[ritehook]

Week 12 College (nov 15)

Was going to knock off last week but found my travel sched ended on Thurs in Phoenix, hit the hotel wi-fi for a couple hours stat, match and angle research (not as much time as I'd like, but sometimes one can over-analyze) and drove up to Laughlin and on Fri put my first bets into a B&M book since last year.

Anyway, I'm late here, so with a very brief write-up:

PURDUE +17.5 (Iowa)
Playing against an expected Hawkeye bouncedown.

KANSAS +13.5 (Texas)
Not what they were last year, but 5-1 SU TY at home. Maybe getting a few pts too many due to Horn mystique.

TULSA/HOUSTON OVER 79.5 (1/2 Unit)
Both teams scoring machines. May hit the 90s, or even 100 with OT.

FRESNO -17 (New Mexico St)
Bulldogs didn't live up to preseason hype, but this, their final home game TY, is their best shot to get 6 wins to be bowl eleigible. Should be able to run on the Ags.

USC -24 (Stanford) (1/2 Unit)
Strictly a revenge and emotion play. LY as 40 pt dogs Stanford beat Trojans and stuck a pin in their national title hopes balloon. Plus, Carroll personally does not like Harbaugh.

COLORADO +18 (Oklahoma St) (1/2 Unit)
Small travel sandwich for Okie St. LW vs Red Raiders, and Sooners on deck.

BOSTON COLLEGE +6 (Florida State)
BC getting some late action (I got 'em at 6.5) They have the Stop Squad to suppress Seminonole rush,

SAN DIEGO STATE +30 (Utah)
Aztecs, of course, aren't much, but this is a big submarine sandwich for Utes - miracle win LW vs TCU, and next up the big matchup vs in-state rival, the very good BYU. Utes need to beat tough Cougars next week to get a BCS bowl. They may just do enough to beat SDSU, without pouring it on.Odds are from Scores and Odds about 25 mins ago. I won't be watching early games, need to visit the Sandman for a few more hours. Too much driving.

Back later, tho, with NFL

[ritehook]

Almost forgot:
2 Team Parlay: NFL (1/2 Unit)
DOLPHINS 1ST HALF
STEELERS 1ST HALF

Got Miami at -6.5, Pitt at -3. West Coast to East Coast.

And 3 team teaser:
BOSTON COLLEGE +6 = +12 (1/2 Unit)
MIAMI -10.5 = -4.5
NY GIANTS -7 = -1

Suicide teaser, beer money

Fresno
La Lafayette
Tulsa
New Mexico
Uconn'
Boston College
Kansas

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Nov 16 Nfl Sunday

DENVER +6.5

GIANTS -7

MIAMI 1ST HALF -6.5

PITTSBURGH 1ST HALF -3

All one unit.

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College Week 13 Nov 20 & 22

On the East Coast. Too damn cold; hey Al where's that ol' global warming, could use a bit now. (I've been ocean swimming in Dec, also Feb, in Calif -at least during the Devil Winds. Do that here they'd be pulling you from the surf.)

Relatives has a 7 BR house,near the ocean, but all the freeloaders with their many brats are here already. I'm down at a summer motel, old guy who owns it doesn't use computers to run his business. "Never saw much use in 'em," he mumbled. I went to the clammy room before he opined that if God wanted us to fly he'd of given us wings.

Here thru Thanksgviing, but it's not a vacation. I spend part of each year acting as a kind of free lance rental agent and bouncer for the non-paying deadbeats. The relative who employs me to do this has - along with several friends - properties on both coasts, and a few in the Southwest.

They found from experience that they can't trust most of the local commercial rental agents. And are too soft and gullible to evict the deadbeats themselves.

No prob for me - in my younger days I deadbeated more than once on landlords. I know all the bull, all the excuses.

Someday I'll relate some of the experiences with the dbs, and the imaginative bull some come up with; and the occasional sexual invitations from db females. Including once a gal who must have been pushing 60. Jeez. . . .

TONIGHT, THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 20

MIAMI, FL +3.5 (Ga Tech) 1 1/2 units (I bought up to 4 here)
Canes have enough D. In fact, this may also be worth a small wager on the Under.

SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 22

Tennessee/Vandy Under 37 1/2 1/2 Unit

Vols flop this year pushed Fulmer out the door, but the dump was on the offensive side. Nothin' wrong with this team's D. Vandy, curiously enough for a high SAT scchool, also has a credible D. I think i'm 5-1 this year on totals, but won't tempt fate and so will stick with a half unit.

UTAH -7 (Byu) 1 Unit

Utes win they get a BCS bowl. again I'm counting on their better D, tho I wish I got it at the 6.5 it was earlier. (I had to make my bets on a local library computer, just as I'm writing this on the same one. Brats at the house break my concentration)

Maybe back Sat with anything else I see.

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Oh yeah, I'll make Miami and Utah my Parlay.

So far this year I hit one of them, one lousy one, and pushed on the other.

Shoulda listened to that old fraud, Kelso

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SAT Nov 22 - college plays

Louisville +7 (W. Va)
Near Kickoff, back shortly

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Cont SAT NOV 22 College and SUN NOV 23 NFL

Running late again on a public online source.

Rest of my College Plays: (Lville posted above, all number from Scores and Odds about 20 mins ago)

HOUSTON/UTEP OVER 74 1/2 UNIT
Lotta pts but both live by the pass.

TEXAS TECH +7 (Oklahoma)
I may be biased here, as TT was one of the only two preseason college plays I made, to win their conference (N Carolina the other, that one won't hunt)

But, while Raiders have the great scoring machine, the secret ingredient this year is D. Like VG D.

One example: both these teams played an excellent Texas team, Oklahoma at the neutral Cotton Bowl site, and TT at home. Sooners lost by 10 to Horns, TT beat Horns by 6.

Statss and schedule strength are similar both bothSooners and Raiders. Oklahoma has a stat edge in rushing, but I think if one took "rushing efficiency" as a mark, TT would be up there. With the air game they don't have to run that much.

Even giving the Sooners 4 pts for the home advantage, TT still looks good for a cover. Then again, I have my biases.

TEXAS TECH/OKLAHOMA OVER 76 1/2 UNIT
Both with good Ds, you don't win this many games without that ingredient. But the O's of both are better than the Ds. And both have poor kickoff and punt teams, which gives a boost to the scoring.

Back with the NFL in 5 mins.

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Nfl Sun Nov 23

CLEVELAND -3

TENNESSEE - 5.5

JAX/MINNY UNDER 40.5 1/2 UNIT

TEASER: 1/2 UNIT

UTAH
CLEVELAND
TENNESSEE (NFL)

Lemme go check main board. I forecast Hill as Sec of State during the primaries. Gonna go boast

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College Week 14 -friday Nov 28

Just came thru door. 30 min siesta and I'm out same door. But manana jes loafin with the games, what a relief. I'll post this Friday play, then grab a coffee and back with the rest.

TOLEDO +2.5 (B Green) 1 unit

"Beloved Head Coach's Last Game" angle. Simplisitic, true. But with intelligent application you could grind a profit with it over the years. Fat Tom being kicked upstairs, players out to give him an adios kiss.