Toledo -7.5

paranoyd androyd · 10-30-11, 11:22 PM

like this as well at first glance, but need to better study toledo against the run. may go with the over instead - this one could see 90 to 100 pts.

ShogunRua · 10-31-11, 12:36 AM

I like Toledo here too. I bought down to -7

AllInDrawingDead · 10-31-11, 02:15 AM

Not a bad spot for my first post...now lets do this

.... smart play is Toledo...been impressive all year...good on both sides of the ball...shouldve beat Ohio State, gave Boise fits for a half, lost in OT on the road at Syracuse...dominates ATS in this series...Northern Illinois struggles on the road...i agree should be a high scoring affair...already locked in 5x on Toledo -6.5...bought a point won't need it...this line should move tho...

get in on this 1

leetreaper · 10-31-11, 09:57 AM

They killing them in H2H as well, pretty much better in every category...

sandman0713 · 10-31-11, 02:16 PM

raise it up then and give me the huskies. don't really see why niu is getting any more than a fg. this is the exact same o-line that put up like 450 rushing against toledo last year when they destroyed them. the qb can run and pass...and he is a senior, maybe even 5th year but i'm not sure til i look closer. they obviously do a good job controlling the short screen game that toledo survives on considering they have outscored them by like 70 in the last 3 years. also...all of us making fun of kent being held to like 70 yards total in a game this year...well this n illinois d is the one who did it. spread is already up to 8.5, so i may not even look any further than this. will look at a total play...but otherwise will be n illinois + whatever i can get.

leetreaper · 10-31-11, 02:21 PM

Originally posted by sandman0713

raise it up then and give me the huskies. don't really see why niu is getting any more than a fg. this is the exact same o-line that put up like 450 rushing against toledo last year when they destroyed them. the qb can run and pass...and he is a senior, maybe even 5th year but i'm not sure til i look closer. they obviously do a good job controlling the short screen game that toledo survives on considering they have outscored them by like 70 in the last 3 years. also...all of us making fun of kent being held to like 70 yards total in a game this year...well this n illinois d is the one who did it. spread is already up to 8.5, so i may not even look any further than this. will look at a total play...but otherwise will be n illinois + whatever i can get.

I have Toledo winning by 10 but gl.

sandman0713 · 10-31-11, 02:29 PM

Originally posted by leetreaper

I have Toledo winning by 10 but gl.

not trying to be an ass...but based on what? did you even look at the last 3 meetings? n illinois holds them to like 300 per game, so they must matchup well. if you rush for 400+ on a team one year, and bring back the same o-line and the same dual threat qb, and rbs i think...what would lead anyone to believe they can't do it again? just curious what everyone is seeing before i bet it...so any reason would be helpful man.

sandman0713 · 10-31-11, 02:46 PM

Originally posted by sandman0713

not trying to be an ass...but based on what? did you even look at the last 3 meetings? n illinois holds them to like 300 per game, so they must matchup well. if you rush for 400+ on a team one year, and bring back the same o-line and the same dual threat qb, and rbs i think...what would lead anyone to believe they can't do it again? just curious what everyone is seeing before i bet it...so any reason would be helpful man.

don't worry about it man...i know you got your reasons, and you may well be right. i gotta go with the 4 year starter at qb, with the entire o-line back, that put up over 50 on them last year. more than a td may be too many points for the #1 o in the mac to be given by anyone in conference...even on the road. gl man...and all you guys. did notice while looking that niu has lost almost all of that d that shut down toledo the last 3 years...so the over may be good if it is a fair number. anyone seen it yet?

the h man · 10-31-11, 04:39 PM

Is it the same defensive line from toledo?

gilbert91016 · 10-31-11, 04:51 PM

What do you guys think over/under 67?

thfootball · 10-31-11, 04:56 PM

my betting website doesn't even have an over/under number yet. wonder if they'll offer one. Toledo sure has N I's number 18 losses out of 20 when visiting there, that's a doozy. I'm thinking N I covers. First place is at stake, but toledo at home...tough call. Didn't N I will a bowl game? I sort of remember and they did good then. They must've lost some important players that graduated.

paranoyd androyd · 10-31-11, 04:57 PM

@gilbert - wanted to see it below 63, but still warrants a one unit over play here

gilbert91016 · 10-31-11, 04:58 PM

O/U 67 at bookmaker

thfootball · 10-31-11, 05:06 PM

N I is under a new coach, that kind of means something.

sandman0713 · 10-31-11, 05:08 PM

Originally posted by thfootball

my betting website doesn't even have an over/under number yet. wonder if they'll offer one. Toledo sure has N I's number 18 losses out of 20 when visiting there, that's a doozy. I'm thinking N I covers. First place is at stake, but toledo at home...tough call. Didn't N I will a bowl game? I sort of remember and they did good then. They must've lost some important players that graduated.

first to the dude above this...yes it is the same d-line, and pretty much the same entire d. n illinois lost the entire d almost...but returns the entire o, which is best in conference. mac games are str8 goofy and crooked...and the over almost seems too obvious. not saying n illinois is the play...but just the play for me. i can't lay that much chalk to an o this talented. also...looks like n ill has been able to run at will the last 3 against them, tho the last one is the one that they really handled them in. small for me...only 2 units. just refuse to bet any more than that on any game in this crooked conference...lol. b green already kept me from having the biggest weekend of my betting career saturday...so small on n ill and no total play. good luck guys this week. remember these weeknight games are wacky, and not worth risking much on before the weekend.

thfootball · 10-31-11, 05:10 PM

I'm kind of leaning towards toledo now. they've played some good teams and lost, but were able to score. 4 game winning streak, at home...

sandman0713 · 10-31-11, 05:11 PM

Originally posted by thfootball

N I is under a new coach, that kind of means something.

last post. don't quote me...but i believe when i was reading up it said this dude has been on the n ill sideline for quite a few years...and now head coach.

thfootball · 10-31-11, 05:22 PM

yes, i have read that, but even when a person is on the sideline and takes over it's a whole new ball game. I say a minus for me, but don't quote me on that everyone do your own reseach and handicapping.

repski · 10-31-11, 05:24 PM

I've been waiting on this one all week. I've watched every minute of Toledos games since they blew Temples doors in @ Temple.
Buffalo outgained them last week as NIU gave up over 550 yards to a HORRIBLE Buffalo squad....had it gone to OT Buffalo wins.(BTW Temple beat Buffalo 34-0). This is not a good NIU teams this year...Large bet for me. Toledo wins easily 55-21

thfootball · 10-31-11, 05:29 PM

I did some stat searching and see N I is 98th in defense...wuuf...

leetreaper · 10-31-11, 05:33 PM

Well real qucik:

Toledo is better in rushing, passing, total yards around 100 more than NIU.

Next NIU are 0-4 ATS on the road this season.

Then they allowing 43 ppg on the road, toledo 26 ppg.

Line moving in Toledo's favor.

Toledo has played a tougher schedule thus far.

Toledo is 12-3 SU, 9-3 ATS against NIU.

Obviously not a lock but that all together makes a pretty decent case to take Toledo at home, good luck!

thfootball · 10-31-11, 05:47 PM

got a bit more insight, just what a person needs from here.

Things that can change a football game: fumbles, interceptions, injuries, bad reffing, bad coaching decisions, kick off/punt returns for touchdowns, blocked punts, missed field goals, etc. There are no guarantees.

leetreaper · 10-31-11, 05:50 PM

Nobody guarantees anything in here.

repski · 10-31-11, 05:53 PM

couple more stats:
NIU is just 1-5 ATS in their last six visits to the Glass Bowl.
The Huskies are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games overall, and just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games as a road underdog.

leetreaper · 10-31-11, 05:55 PM

Lets start the week with a win!

thfootball · 10-31-11, 06:05 PM

Watching a game means a lot, even from the losers side, that team might be better than their next opponent, or might cover for some reason.

repski · 10-31-11, 06:48 PM

th
I agree I bet on temple in that game vs toledo. I was so impressed that I put them on my watchist. I made my money back in the E,Mich blowout....got beat vs bg on a late kick off return, but they got the money for me big the next week. I had NIU last week and watched a poor Buffalo team go up and down the field...other than a second half againt W.Mich this NIU team has been very poor.

JMHO...do your own dd

kobstopa · 10-31-11, 11:12 PM

Toledo -7.5 & over 67 is the play for me, good luck everyone

paranoyd androyd · 10-31-11, 11:39 PM

toledo TT over 38

BernardMadoff · 10-31-11, 11:54 PM

Hmm, tricky game, how well does Toledo stop the run.

blackeyeshamus · 11-01-11, 12:08 AM

toledo should roll.
line movement to 8.5 now...
toledo has endured a mean schedule-
and remained competitive. leaning
toward a toledo double digit win
at home tomorrow night.
good luck, leetreaper.

smokeman42 · 11-01-11, 12:22 AM

has nothing to do with this back n forth info given on game but can anyone help explain the different lines for this game? I see from 7 to 8.5 and some sharp books have to help us figure this out. Heritage is 7, Pinny is 8, Sportsbook, Caesars, SBG 8.5.

Bengals28 · 11-01-11, 12:42 AM

What do you guys think this line will do, keep going up? I'm playing niu and I wanna get the best line I can. I'm scared it might go back down

paranoyd androyd · 11-01-11, 12:50 AM

Originally posted by Bengals28

What do you guys think this line will do, keep going up? I'm playing niu and I wanna get the best line I can. I'm scared it might go back down

it'll hit 10 before it hits 7 or 7' again