Toledo -7.5

[ebelisle22]

Both teams are 5-3 both are scoring a ton of points and really running over people or getting creamed. I don't see what mega adv. toledo has other than being at home. And i am not knocking anyone but i dont get into all the stats because at the end of the day they just make you crazy and dont really give you much of an edge when it comes to these teams in the sewer conferences.

you're correct is viewing that both teams are pretty equal but if you do compare them in depth you will see that n.illinois has an advantage both ways of the field. Calculated by a formula toledo will NOT win by 9 but may win. its 55% 45% in favor of n.ill. but 90% +9 n.ill

follow or not, you'll see this is accurate when the game ends.
cheers to making the right move.
to the non followers

[BernardMadoff]

Was kinda leaning toward Toledo, but hope it keeps rising, Ill be on NIU. Gotta figure they can resort to something that worked in scoring 65 points last year to keep it kinda close.

[leetreaper]

you're correct is viewing that both teams are pretty equal but if you do compare them in depth you will see that n.illinois has an advantage both ways of the field. Calculated by a formula toledo will NOT win by 9 but may win. its 55% 45% in favor of n.ill. but 90% +9 n.ill

follow or not, you'll see this is accurate when the game ends.
cheers to making the right move.
to the non followers

This doesnt make sense at all...

[BernardMadoff]

you're correct is viewing that both teams are pretty equal but if you do compare them in depth you will see that n.illinois has an advantage both ways of the field. Calculated by a formula toledo will NOT win by 9 but may win. its 55% 45% in favor of n.ill. but 90% +9 n.ill

follow or not, you'll see this is accurate when the game ends.
cheers to making the right move.
to the non followers

Nobody knows how the ball will bounce so you saying 90% is hogwash.

[pad]

I dont know what the 90% bs is about. I do not agree with that on any game at all.

[ebelisle22]

I have Toledo winning by 10 but gl.

[pad]

What adv does NIU have on both ways of the field and what formula are you using? The only adv i can see at all in this game is homefield but taking that along with the big spread or large ml ina coin flip type game I will take the dog.

Were you trying to say something like that? that the risk to reward ratio sides with NIU because neither team has a major adv.?

[ebelisle22]

What adv does NIU have on both ways of the field and what formula are you using? The only adv i can see at all in this game is homefield but taking that along with the big spread or large ml ina coin flip type game I will take the dog.


Were you trying to say something like that? that the risk to reward ratio sides with NIU because neither team has a major adv.?

take a look at the matchup scenario's. let me look them up again i'll list them on here in a bit.
also, if i was to give my formula my opinion would become invaluable.
most of the forum is siding popular opinion without proving their points or have any sort of footing on the game.


here is one set of info you should consider;

TEAM OFF DEF
N.ILL 38.5 32.5
TOLEDO 36.5 25.0

let me find the other details i looked up last night that were more in depth. ill post later.
anyways, best of luck with your choice

[leetreaper]

take a look at the matchup scenario's. let me look them up again i'll list them on here in a bit.
also, if i was to give my formula my opinion would become invaluable.
most of the forum is siding popular opinion without proving their points or have any sort of footing on the game.


here is one set of info you should consider;

TEAM OFF DEF
N.ILL 38.5 32.5
TOLEDO 36.5 25.0

let me find the other details i looked up last night that were more in depth. ill post later.
anyways, best of luck with your choice

This guy cracks me up, he doesnt understand even his stupidity...

[ebelisle22]

...also if you are interested , there are three games tonight that fit my formula in the NHL tonight; the senators over the bruins, calgary over the canucks, and carolina over lightning.

[leetreaper]

lol all three - wrong...

[ebelisle22]

This guy cracks me up, he doesnt understand even his stupidity...

cheers, friend.

well see tonight

[leetreaper]

Yeah no offence, peace.

[ebelisle22]

lol all three - wrong...

well the stats will prove one of us wrong, well see tonight.

[pad]

take a look at the matchup scenario's. let me look them up again i'll list them on here in a bit.
also, if i was to give my formula my opinion would become invaluable.
most of the forum is siding popular opinion without proving their points or have any sort of footing on the game.


here is one set of info you should consider;

TEAM OFF DEF
N.ILL 38.5 32.5
TOLEDO 36.5 25.0

let me find the other details i looked up last night that were more in depth. ill post later.
anyways, best of luck with your choice

These stats are nearly identical and they are overall so when you put them on the road vs @ home I am sure it leans slightly towards toledo. So like I said earlier coin flip.

[leetreaper]

I cant imagine what the line is gonna be before the game, at -9.5 at pinny now, prolly at -12...

[thebestthereis]

line should probably be -14, both teams are 5-3 makes total sense

[leetreaper]

line should probably be -14, both teams are 5-3 makes total sense

Thats exactly what i said like 5 posts ago...

[ManBearPig]

This game is one those classic weekday games that people have way too much time to look into so let's not try to out think the room here. I think everyone can agree that Toledo should win this game outright based on everything that is seen from the statistical standpoint. The question is will they cover?

Well looking at this that will come down to motivation. NIU put a 35pt beatdown on TOL last season at home and NUI isn't quite the team they were last year from a defensive standpoint allowing almost twice as many points 18 vs 32. They don't control the ground as well either allowing 215 vs. 130 last season on the road.

Historically it looks like Toledo has had the upperhand in the match-up winning 7 of the last 10 match-ups (although NIU has won 3 of the last 5) Both teams are off a Bye and have had time to dissect each other and freshness shouldn't be a problem. I like that motivation of last season combined with the fact they are 3-1 SU/ATS @home and NIL is 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS on the road and just isn't very good on the road overall. These two are near the top of the MAC West and Toledo at 4-0 in conf will want to stay undefeated so expect them to try to put a beatdown on NIU tonight.

I had this at 12-14pts so if you got the line at -7 then you're looking much better. The total is at 68 now, which is somewhat of a key number, and the over looks like the play here. Unless Toledo runs away and hides I can't find a reason the under would come in play. I won't be playing the side now that it's at 10 almost, but may make a play on the over.

[EXpertcapper]

toledo wins 44-27

[leetreaper]

toledo wins 44-27

I like it!

[House]

ebwhatever22,what did your statistics say about the Clemson Gtech game

[House]

Give me the team at home on espn Tuesday night in this one.....Toledo -8 and -5 halftime ..and a little on the over 67.....I'll be back I'm a square tonight and I like it ...

[ebelisle22]

ebwhatever22,what did your statistics say about the Clemson Gtech game

i forgot you have never lost a bet before, sorry!

[leetreaper]

lol guys, loving it...

[cowboyfan08]

BOL,FELLOWS GOT IT EARLY 7.5 BOUGHT THE HOOK!IM LIKING UNDER MAY SIT THAT OUT,MAYBE WRONG BUT WATCH THAT OVER PLAY!MY BOY HAS IT AT 91/2 AND 68.LEE ANY OTHER OVER/UNDERS FOR WEEK.HOUSE WE RIDING AGAIN

[leetreaper]

GOGOGO 1.5 hours to go, cant wait...

[ShogunRua]

you're correct is viewing that both teams are pretty equal but if you do compare them in depth you will see that n.illinois has an advantage both ways of the field. Calculated by a formula toledo will NOT win by 9 but may win. its 55% 45% in favor of n.ill. but 90% +9 n.ill

follow or not, you'll see this is accurate when the game ends.
cheers to making the right move.
to the non followers

Oh man, reading that gave me a good laugh.

[ShogunRua]

take a look at the matchup scenario's. let me look them up again i'll list them on here in a bit.
also, if i was to give my formula my opinion would become invaluable.
most of the forum is siding popular opinion without proving their points or have any sort of footing on the game.


here is one set of info you should consider;

TEAM OFF DEF
N.ILL 38.5 32.5
TOLEDO 36.5 25.0

let me find the other details i looked up last night that were more in depth. ill post later.
anyways, best of luck with your choice

I hope this isn't serious and he's just joking around.

[leetreaper]

no hes dead serious i almost had a heart attack after that lol

[ebelisle22]

popular opinion is always comical, i will say i told you so at the end of this game.

[ShogunRua]

popular opinion is always comical, i will say i told you so at the end of this game.

What's 10x more comical are those ridiculous posts you made about WHY you like N. Illinois in this game. I'm not arguing that N. Illinois is a terrible play, but your analysis/reasoning behind it is hilarious. You think posting 'points per game' and 'points given up per game' on the 2 teams is going to give you anything useful? You aren't considering strength of schedule, where the games are played, injuries, and a million other things. You just post the points per game and whoever is higher has the better offense.

[leetreaper]

Its like in poker dont teach the guy the all inside info

[ebelisle22]

thats what i said to you, way to repeat it

[ebelisle22]

What's 10x more comical are those ridiculous posts you made about WHY you like N. Illinois in this game. I'm not arguing that N. Illinois is a terrible play, but your analysis/reasoning behind it is hilarious. You think posting 'points per game' and 'points given up per game' on the 2 teams is going to give you anything useful? You aren't considering strength of schedule, where the games are played, injuries, and a million other things. You just post the points per game and whoever is higher has the better offense.