Spladle08 Week 9 Redemption?

spladle08 · 10-23-11, 03:07 PM

Early Lean for Wednesday
Wednesday: Uconn vs Pitt: Uconn +3-5, and Under 45 or more.
CONN (22.3/20.7) 3-4 SU, 2-5 ATS, 2-4 O/U
Pitt (25.3/24) 3-4 SU, 2-5 ATS, 3-4 O/U
My early lean is to UConn, but with no relevant stats.
Pitt has the stronger offense, and depends heavily on the run to get things going. This could be tough sledding however as Uconn only allows 89 yrds/game on the ground. To expand on the offensive vs defensive perspective; Uconn has the 95th ranked scoring offense and the 29th ranked scoring defense, while Pitt has the 75th ranked scoring O, and 46th ranked scoring D. This angle seems to be a wash. Looking for relevant injuries, or historical trends. I don’t see any injuries worth mentioning, so I will go Uconn ATS and Under for now (until the actual spread comes out obviously). Pitt has been 6pt favs the last 2 years and failed to cover both times, Uconn is 5-2 ATS vs Pitt since 92’. There is a 50% chance of rain, and between the 2 teams they have averaged 41pts per game in their last 5 games. So I am going to lean under ~45…and hopefully I get Uconn +3 or 4… but no solid analysis here just going with the trend. Any inside info would be appreciated.

flocko76 · 10-23-11, 09:14 PM

just looking at what you have for tuesday, I'd say FIU. haven't done any intensive research but i'll get back to you... wednesday, i lean pitt right now... need more research on that too, maybe i'll do that now.

here's a nickel's worth of free advice, cut down on the number of plays. I'm trying to do that. i'd pick a lot of games and go about 50/50.

spladle08 · 10-23-11, 09:41 PM

Yeah I'm doing 10 total for the weekend... upping amount per play I think... i'll prolly play weekday games as well if i can find decent angles ...looking back though a lot of the ones I lost last weekend were some of my more confident picks sigh ... thanks for the advice and any help this week

spladle08 · 10-24-11, 04:28 AM

I just saw lines... uconn is +10 and I'm taking it... fiu is -6 and im unsure... going to look more into it... side note I see a lot of lines that make me feel 10-0 is going to be easy ...

if this is like last week that spells doom.

Locked in FIU -6.5
Locked in UConn +10

spladle08 · 10-24-11, 06:21 AM

Early Lean for Thursday
Thursday: Rice vs Houston: OVER (anything under 70)
Rice (22.3 / 32.6) 2-5 SU, 3-4 ATS, 2-5 O/U
Houston (49.3 / 23.4) 7-0 SU, 5-2 ATS, 5-2 O/U
Obviously a person should lean Houston ATS but @ -27 this requires some research.
Houston’s offense averages 606 yards, while Rice averages about half of that (326 yards) wow.
Houston also has the better defense, allowing ~64 yards less per game. Houston should murder them, as you have the top offense vs one of the worst defenses, but in the past it has been relatively close and though I can’t see Rice winning, they haven’t lost by 27+ all year, and they have played decent offenses @ Texas and Baylor, and vs Tulsa. Marshall was a common opponent and a week after they defeated Rice; they lost to Houston 63-28 so yeah… Anyways the last few years look like this:
2010/10/16 Houston 31 - Rice 34
2009/11/28 Houston 73 - Rice 14
2008/11/29 Houston 42 - Rice 56
2007/10/13 Houston 56 - Rice 48
2006/09/02 Houston 31 - Rice 30

I know the O/U is a wash with a combined: 7-7 O/U but you can’t argue the potential for a huge game from Houston. They haven’t scored under 35 all year and scored at least 48 or more in 5 of 7 games (including, 56 vs. ECU and 63 vs. Marshall in their last 2 outings). Rice has scored 20+ in every game but the opener against Texas, and though the Houston Defense is improved, I don’t see them keeping Rice out of the end-zone. For any less than 3 TD’s
My play for this game will be OVER (anything under 70)

A couple of stats I left out: Rice is 1-7 ATS On Grass Fields (over the last 3 seasons) and 7 of 8 games played on grass fields have gone OVER the total.

Houston is 11-3 ATS in home games, and 2-0 (OVER) on Thursday night games (over the last 3 seasons)

spladle08 · 10-24-11, 07:07 AM

Early Lean for Thursday
Thursday: UVA vs Miami: UNDER (hoping for mid 50’s)
Virginia (24.9/23.0) 4-3 SU, 2-5 ATS, 1-5 O/U
Miami (29.4/21.3) 4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS, 4-3 O/U
Looks like Miami and the Under is the play at a glance, but I always dive deeper.
Everyone knows UVA beat GT, but has struggled with some pretty terrible teams. Miami has looked good at times and not as good at others. They lost to Maryland, beat OHST, lost to KSU, and then beat Gtech. Miami has definitely had the more difficult schedule.
Now that we have that established, let’s look at some stats. As far a team totals (yardage), UVA appears to be better on offense and defense but they have played a very soft schedule. To further elaborate on this: UVA’s toughest opponent was GTech. Besides that game they have losses to NCST (28-14), Southern Miss (30-24) and UNC (28-17) if you take out their opening week win over William and Mary, they have won over Indiana, Idaho, and GT by a combined 7pts. If we look at Miami, we see their losses have come to Maryland (32-24), KSU (28-24), and VaTech (38-35), while their wins have come against some notable competition (outside of Bethune Cookman) they have beat OHST (24-6), UNC (30-24) and GT (24-7. Sooo not only their wins, but their competitiveness against fairly tough competition has me leaning towards Miami.
Over the last 3 seasons, Miami is only 1-7 ATS after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins. They are also 4-12 O/U, when playing on a Thursday (since 92’)
Virginia is 1-5 O/U in all games this year, with the lone over being a 34-31 win over Indiana in week 2.

2010- UVA-24-19 @ Home
2009- Miami 52-17 @ home

The spread isn’t huge and Miami is obviously the better team, but with history against me on that bet, I would lean towards the Under and hopefully its mid 50’s

spladle08 · 10-24-11, 08:01 AM

Early Lean for Friday
Friday: BYU vs TCU: BYU +12.5
BYU (26.8 / 21.5) 6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS, 3-5 O/U
TCU (43.6 / 21.9) 5-2 SU, 3-3-1 ATS, 6-1 O/U
let me start by saying I haven’t looked at the spread but I am guessing BYU is a substantial dog and, I don’t think there is any way BYU doesn’t cover an 8+ spread. Anyways let’s take a look.
Ok so BYU is getting 12.5… I’m in love already; I hope the numbers support this. Actually the numbers really don’t show all that much. Outside of the UTAH game, BYU has played pretty solid defense with their worst effort being in a 38-28 victory of Oregon State. USU scored 24 but every other team has scored 17 or less (including a decent Texas offense). The same can be said for TCU, they had a bad performance against Baylor (allowing 50pts) and also gave up 40 to SMU but outside of those 2 games they have held everyone else under 20.
Over the last 2yrs TCU has dominated winning 31-3 and 38-7 (both with Andy Dalton and those outrageous teams)
I just can’t see this one getting out of hand. Both teams are playing well on defense with TCU playing better on offense. I see a final of 28-21 or 21-17... Something like that. TCU should win but this isn’t the same TCU that’s crushed BYU in the past. I think BYU +12.5 is safe

On the over/Under, facts are suggesting all sorts of plays. Personally I think the Under is best but TCU has gone over in 6 of 7 games, BUT over the last 3 years they have gone under in 10 of 12 games in weeks 5-9, while BYU has gone under 13 of 17 times in games played on a “neutral” field…. I don’t know… if the total is 55+ I say under.

gilbert91016 · 10-24-11, 11:56 AM

Really liking Rice/Houston u over
Also looking at BAYLOR/OKLAHOMA STATE OVER Bol this week

spladle08 · 10-24-11, 12:03 PM

Thanks I will need it... but putting in time right now so pray it turns out well

GOOD LUCK GIL

Mr. Doughnut · 10-24-11, 12:52 PM

Rough weekend all around spladle, just gotta put it behind us. I lucked out enough to do great on the weekday games and noon games, but ended up negative just a couple units. Could have been worse. We'll get 'em this week, can't win 'em all.

gilbert91016 · 10-24-11, 05:55 PM

Rice/Houston O/U 70.5.
Would like to hear your opinion on Baylor/Oklahoma st OVER 79

spladle08 · 10-24-11, 09:16 PM

oh wow it came out at 70... blah.. I would still take it.... and wow 79 is a monster number but I cant imagine anyone taking the under. I will have to crunch some numbers... but the % chance I take the under is 0

***EDIT**** I WILL STILL TAKE IT

fecgp40 · 10-24-11, 10:10 PM

I played a lot of the same games as you spladle, and I think our mistake was playing too many road faves. When I looked at it almost every game I played was a road fave. Gonna try to eliminate or seriously eliminate plays like that this week.

Jettman28 · 10-25-11, 01:12 AM

Spladle I've been tailing u since you've posted picks and all I have to say is great job so far and one bad day isn't the worst. It happens to everyone eventually. If I were you I wouldn't change your ways of picking due to one bad day. Keep up the excellent work my friend!

Wrestler31 · 10-25-11, 01:16 AM

Originally posted by spladle08

early lean for thursday
thursday: Rice vs houston: over (anything under 70)
rice (22.3 / 32.6) 2-5 su, 3-4 ats, 2-5 o/u
houston (49.3 / 23.4) 7-0 su, 5-2 ats, 5-2 o/u
obviously a person should lean houston ats but @ -27 this requires some research.
Houston’s offense averages 606 yards, while rice averages about half of that (326 yards) wow.
Houston also has the better defense, allowing ~64 yards less per game. Houston should murder them, as you have the top offense vs one of the worst defenses, but in the past it has been relatively close and though i can’t see rice winning, they haven’t lost by 27+ all year, and they have played decent offenses @ texas and baylor, and vs tulsa. Marshall was a common opponent and a week after they defeated rice; they lost to houston 63-28 so yeah… anyways the last few years look like this:
2010/10/16 houston 31 - rice 34
2009/11/28 houston 73 - rice 14
2008/11/29 houston 42 - rice 56
2007/10/13 houston 56 - rice 48
2006/09/02 houston 31 - rice 30

i know the o/u is a wash with a combined: 7-7 o/u but you can’t argue the potential for a huge game from houston. They haven’t scored under 35 all year and scored at least 48 or more in 5 of 7 games (including, 56 vs. Ecu and 63 vs. Marshall in their last 2 outings). Rice has scored 20+ in every game but the opener against texas, and though the houston defense is improved, i don’t see them keeping rice out of the end-zone. For any less than 3 td’s
my play for this game will be over (anything under 70)

a couple of stats i left out: Rice is 1-7 ats on grass fields (over the last 3 seasons) and 7 of 8 games played on grass fields have gone over the total.

Houston is 11-3 ats in home games, and 2-0 (over) on thursday night games (over the last 3 seasons)

this is an absolute solid bet. Good look friend!!!!! Game will score low 90's!!

Greg2011 · 10-25-11, 01:48 AM

Spladle you think you can look up the Texas tech Iowa st game and give your opinion thanks

spladle08 · 10-25-11, 04:46 AM

Thanks guys and no problem Greg....I think today while at work I am going to type up a bunch of games I think I like right now... and then prolly knock out half the saturday games (played before 4pm eastern), and then do the rest of the ones (after 4pm) on Wednesday...the girlfriend is going to Dallas for a sales conference so I can do nothing but football for 2 days. Im doing a lot of 3 and 4 teamers this week, and I am dead set on finding the best plays. CHEERS guys.

Seaton420 · 10-25-11, 06:00 AM

Originally posted by spladle08

Thanks guys and no problem Greg....I think today while at work I am going to type up a bunch of games I think I like right now... and then prolly knock out half the saturday games (played before 4pm eastern), and then do the rest of the ones (after 4pm) on Wednesday...the girlfriend is going to Dallas for a sales conference so I can do nothing but football for 2 days. Im doing a lot of 3 and 4 teamers this week, and I am dead set on finding the best plays. CHEERS guys.

Yeah i got crushed this weekend too, guess vegas made their money back last weekend. Then Got raped in the NFL with Greenbay and Baltimore

Anyways while your adding more games im gonna downsize. Only 3 games i really like this weekend and i did 3 units on each game and then a parlay where i bought a point or so on each..

Clemson -2.5
Stanford -6.5
Wisconsin -6

$150 to win $585

GL this weekend spaddle

House · 10-25-11, 08:39 AM

under tonight .....and FIU , good luck this week spladle ...it was a rough week for most ....

spladle08 · 10-25-11, 08:58 AM

Thanks house.. I have FIU with you.. haven't even glanced at that total, but I will here shortly... Just finished some early leans of games I likes. About to post.

spladle08 · 10-25-11, 09:16 AM

Games I think I like (pre research) Going to make these shorter than usual if I can,
-Blue means I probably wont play but don’t dislike the play,
-Green means Im probably playing it… sigh…
-Red means its not for me
Im going to end up making another Huge ass card

Miss ST. -10 vs UK: Playing MissSt -10 or better

Not a lot to say here, MissSt. Has been a disappointment as has UK, but the Bulldogs have played some stiff competition and kept it close with some of the better teams. One of my concerns is after the first 2 weeks of the season, MissSt. Has failed to score more than 26 in any game. However Kentucky is only averaging 16.6 a game so that might not be too terrible. Kentucky is only putting up 259 yards of total offense per game, and allowing almost 400yards a game on defense, there is no question as to whether they will lose this game but will they cover?
MissSt has covered against more talented UK teams the past 2 years, and UK is 1-5 ATS over the last 3 seasons as a 10.5-21pt dog, MissST is also coming off a bye week and should be more than prepared for this weaker foe. … its these factors that lead me to assume MissSt will cover.

The Under appears to be a play as well with MissST going Under in 5 of its last 5 games, But they are playing a UK team that has hit a total of 41 in 5 of 7 games (so I don’t like the low total)… I don’t like this play as much as I thought I would, but would suggest Playing MissSt -10 or better

UAB +6 vs Marshall: NO PLAY (or Marshall if you really want to play it)

They both have poor offenses, averaging 15 (UAB) and 16(marshal) points per game. UAB has better offensive yardage totals, while Marshall fields the better defense (both teams give up ~30 points per game). Wow I got to looking at the numbers and I think I fell into a trap. UAB had that big win on a weekday game against UCF and I reckon the bookmakers expected the public to see them playing lowly Marshall and jump all over them since they are getting points.
They (UAB) are 5-1 this year as an underdog but they have also been given no less than 16 points. I don’t like this spot, they are on the road after a big win, Marshall has beaten Southern Miss, Louisville, and Rice (3 teams I consider better than UAB) true they lost to UCF but yeah well, UAB snuck one out, don’t let it influence you too much.
The last 2 years Marshall has beat them on the road by 14 and at home by 20. I don’t like either team here, line doesn’t seem too biased either way, but I would lean NO PLAY (or Marshall if you really want to play it)

Clemson -4 vs Gtech (or over): Clemson -4 (Bandwagon Pick)

What all can I say? They are both known for scoring, historically it’s been a close series, don’t count your chickens before they hatch, etc. etc.
Im looking at numbers and making myself unsure of this game (when I know I should just load up on Clemson.) Both teams come in with powerful offenses GT putting up 38 points per game 321yds on the ground ad 157 through the air, while Clemson shows a bit more “traditional” balance with 180 on the ground and 303 through the air and a solid 40 points per. Defenses are similar but GT has the more proficient pass defense allowing only 170 yards per game (good for 8th in the country). The previous best pass D Clemson had faced was FSU who ranks 39th in the country (208yds per). In that game they put up 344 through the air… hmmm I’m going to look at total D. Clemson has played the #12 and #13 best Total defenses against FSU and VaTech and hasn’t struggled too much. I’m starting to doubt the over actually. I know Gtech is going to run the triple option, as does everyone else and I think Clemson will sniff it out, Im just unsure as to how many points they will score.
Last year Clemson won as 4 point favorites by 14 and this year should be even more of a whooping in my opinion. Clemson comes in riding an 8 game winning streak (7-1 ATS), while GaTech has lost their last 3 ATS and 2 SU.
Common opponents are Maryland and UNC, both teams coming out victorious, but Clemson by the larger margin in both games. I am going with Clemson in this one. I think they have momentum and too many weapons for a one dimensional GT team. (Im not 100% sold here but at -4 I think it’s a pretty safe play) Im going to lock it in for 2u as a bandwagon PICK

BG -5 vs Kent Play BG -5

Ignore the fact that Kent has won in recent history.
Consider these facts:
Kent is 1-6 ATS
Kent averages 10 points per game and 28 against
BG puts up 27 per game
Kent hasn’t played 1 team within 5pts all year
BG just played Toledo to a 7pt loss and beat Temple straight up
Common opponent is Miami Ohio who BG crushed (@ Miami) and Kent lost to @ home
Meh I think BG has this… BG -5

Hawaii 8.5 vs Idaho: Hawaii -8.5... Play it

Another weird one…just the facts:
Hawaii scores 16 more points per game
Idaho is 5-14 ATS against conf. opponents over the last 3 seasons
Hawaii is 6-1 ATS vs Idaho since 92’
Last year Hawaii won by 35 (Idaho did win by 12 in 09’)
Idaho has covered 2 spreads this year (in a 30pt loss to A&M and a 1pt loss to UVA. Outside of those 2, they had a win against North Dakota, and a 7pt loss to NMST to highlight their resume. Common opponents are NMST, who Hawaii beat by 11 and Idaho lost to by 7. And Louisiana Tech who Hawaii beat by 18 and Idaho lost to by 13.
Hawaii -8.5... Play it

OSU vs Baylor: Just go OSU and don’t look back. OSU -14

Insane: both teams are averaging mid 40’s in points and ~550yards of offense. Jesus. OSU has shown the better defense, holding opponents to an impressive 26 points per game after playing some tough competition. Baylor is allowing 32 points per, and they have also played some strong offensive teams.
Historically OSU owns this series, going 12-3 ATS vs Baylor since 92’ including a 55-28 victory last year and a 34-7 victory in 09.
After a loss (ATS) in their first game vs ULL, OSU has reeled off 6 straight covers. Including a 21 point win over Missouri and a 12 point win over Texas in their last 2 outings. The game is in Stillwater which wont help the Bears, who are coming off a bye week. In Baylor’s last outing they were downed by 27 at the hands of Texas A&M. 14 seems like a lot, and it really is but outside of 2005 OSU has won every meeting by more than that number and I don’t feel this one will be any different… and yes every trend in the world leans towards OSU as far as their ATS record under these circumstances. Just go OSU and don’t look back. OSU -14

Stanford -8 vs USC: play Stanford -8 or 7.5 or anything under 10

Stanford is good.Stanford has outscored 12 of their last 13 opponents by 25+ (whoa)
The match-up will depend heavily on the USC passing game. This is the only area of the game where they have an advantage on their side of the ball. Fielding the 10th best passing offense vs. the 86th ranked passing defense. I wonder if I can post the whole grid showing how far behind it appears they are in each category.
Nope it failed, but it basically shows match-ups like:
-Stanfords #2 ranked scoring offense vs USC’s 38th ranked scoring defense
- USC’s 49th ranked scoring offense vs Stanford’s 4th ranked scoring defense
-Stanford’s 14th ranked road passing game vs USC’s 108th ranked home pass defense (which are all very encouraging).
Anyways play Stanford -8 or 7.5 or anything under 10… and even if the train derails this week, it will be hard not to jump right back on, in the next game.

AFA/NM Ov 64.5/Air force -30.5
AFA may cover this themselves. UNM can’t play defense, allowing 532 yards and 47 points per game, while air force has a good offense (averaging 34 points per game) and also has defensive struggles allowing 35 against. Air Force has gone OVER the total in all their games this year so this is definitely the play here but…. I think they may cover as well. UNM has only kept the score within 42points against Sam Houston St (3), NMST (14), and Colorado St (4)….Last year Air Force won by 25, and 24 the year before. In games played @ UNM, 4 of the last 5 have gone over.

Iowa/Minne Ov 54.5: take Iowa all day. Over 54.5 and -16
Iowa has gone over in all but 1 game (the game against PSU).
and in all those games they scored 31+….(41+ in 4 of 6.)
Minnesota has given up 37+ in 4 consecutive games, starting with a 29-37 loss to north Dakota. Since that loss they have given up no less than 41 in a game. They have also only been held to less than 14 points 1 time. The spread is Iowa -16 which I don’t think would be terrible either because they have been rolling, and Minny has been getting murdered.
Traditionally it’s not a blowout but Minny has been terrible this year, and with a 100 yard and 17 point offensive advantage and a slight defensive advantage, I’ll take Iowa all day. Over 54.5 and -16

CMU/Akron Ov 50

Both teams are finding their offensive identities averaging ~55 points per (combined) over their last 4 outings. Both teams are fielding pretty poor defenses (allowing ~34 points per game each) so there shouldn’t be much scoring resistance. Last time they played (2009) CMU won 48-21. CMU has actually gone over in 6 of 7 games this year. And each team has only held 1 opponent all year to less than 27 points (VMI for Akron, and S. Carolina St. for CMU).
I like this play more than I thought I did to start. Lock it in. OVER 50

bspring · 10-25-11, 09:23 AM

Spladle you are coming up in the world.. New pic, new layout... Same solid picks I am on all of your actually probably wont bet hawaii bc well they are ***** after that San Jose debacle, and the USC thing... Stanford is so damn good but I dont know I can bet it... in your opinion has stanford been tested?

I am a huge fader of highly ranked undefeated teams heading into their toughest/first test of the season on the road... Michigan first fit the mold. then Wiscy

spladle08 · 10-25-11, 09:24 AM

lol I had more BLUE on the weekday plays, but I already posted them so this looks like all green lol yeah well.

spladle08 · 10-25-11, 09:30 AM

Originally posted by bspring

Spladle you are coming up in the world.. New pic, new layout... Same solid picks I am on all of your actually probably wont bet hawaii bc well they are ***** after that San Jose debacle, and the USC thing... Stanford is so damn good but I dont know I can bet it... in your opinion has stanford been tested?

I am a huge fader of highly ranked undefeated teams heading into their toughest/first test of the season on the road... Michigan first fit the mold. then Wiscy

Not that Colorado, Washington St., or Washington are world beaters but I got more involved in these boards about 3 weeks ago and each week it has been

(people on here saying....)
Colorado- 29 is too high and Stanford is over-rated
Washington State- They are playing great ball and Stanford is over-rated, 20 is too high
Washington- Washington is a legit team and this will be a very close game, 19 is too many points.

I have bet Stanford the whole way through and won the whole way through. USC on the other hand was the boards whipping boy for a few weeks. (games 1-5) and then they beat an over-rated Cal, and an unpredictable Notre Dame and now we are discussing them keeping it within a TD vs Stanford....

I dont think so.

bspring · 10-25-11, 11:27 AM

great points. I bet them all three weeks as well... but something here tells me to lay off, I think SC is really putting a lot into these big games bc they dont have shit to play for, that logic makes no sense but.... I dont know. BOL tho...

spladle08 · 10-25-11, 12:07 PM

lol bol, i was locking in plays just now and locked in some ridiculous crap.... 2-4 teamers 2-3 teamers and a 10 team eye-sore... totally against any money management rules I made Monday... what a degen.
Risk 50 to win 31,430.80
Football - 107 Rice/Houston U over 70½ -110 for Game
Football - 115 Central Michigan/Akron over 50 -110 for Game
Football - 123 Clemson -4 +100 for Game
Football - 125 Iowa -16 -110 for Game
Football - 125 Iowa/Minnesota U over 54½ -110 for Game
Football - 149 Bowling Green -5 -110 for Game
Football - 151 Air Force/New Mexico over 64½ -110 for Game
Football - 173 Hawaii -7½ -110 for Game
Football - 190 Oklahoma State -14 -110 for Game
Football - 195 Stanford -8 -110 for Game

spladle08 · 10-25-11, 12:09 PM

2 games I stumbled across while I was locking in plays were the Mizzou/TA&M over 61, and ECU is only 16 point favs over Tulane.. I figure thats worth looking into as well.... I will also look at TT/ISU here in a minute for Greg2011

spladle08 · 10-25-11, 06:19 PM

Anyone care to hear me ramble about a game... Im bored and drinking and ready to look at some stats... BOOM

Pin Fish · 10-25-11, 06:28 PM

Miss st vs kentucky

Pin Fish · 10-25-11, 06:29 PM

Oops just saw it

spladle08 · 10-25-11, 06:47 PM

TT vs ISU: TT-15, OV 66
Right away Im thinkin Tech should crush, but I will entertain the idea that the line is out of whack… what is the line? Tech -15. That’s not bad. But let’s examine why it’s not too shabby.
-Tech averages 20 points per game more on offense and gives up 5 points per game less (whoa)
-The game is in Lubbock
-Tech is 5-2 ATS vs ISU since 92’
-Tech leads in about every statistical category, including: Points for, points against, Point Diff., Passing, Rushing, Passing Allowed, Rushing Allowed…..
-ISU has played 4 Big 12 opponents and lost to all 4 by a minimum of 16 (average of the 4 losses is 24)
-3 of 5 games in the series has gone over. I didn’t think to even look at this number but I shall.

OVER: They are a combined 10-2 O/U this year. The number for this game is 66.5. TT has gone over this number in 6 of 7 games. While ISU has only gone over the magic number 3x this year. Luckily for OVER bettors you aren’t depending on ISU to be the main point scorer.
The fact is, TT is coming off a big win over OU, they are going to be home and the crowd is going to be insane… you can count on them for 48+…..the cover (-15) in this game seems inevitable and with an ISU offense that isn’t completely inept, the Over should be a good bet as well. If I had to award star value, I would give TT -15: 4 Stars, and the over 3 stars…. GOOD LUCK to whoever plays this.

spladle08 · 10-25-11, 07:31 PM

Missouri vs Texas A&M: Missouri +11, and OV 61.5
I hate to put in little effort but I didn’t eat anything but some granola bars this morning and the booze is taking effect. ANYWAYS LETS GO!!!!!
I am immediately leaning over 61.5, seems way too easy. Both teams average a ton of points (40 for A&M; 34 for Missouri) Both teams giving up ~24 points per game, and combined they have hit or gone over 60 in 10 of 14 games…. I don’t hate it.
Missouri has been the better team ATS going 4-3 while A&M posts a very unimpressive 2-5 record. Missouri in this spot seems like a bargain @ +11, but let’s double check.
Both teams are very balanced on offense, Missouri has the better defense, and though A&M enjoys a home field advantage, I don’t think that will play a role in this game. Mizzou has won the last 2 battles and 4 of the last 5, and though they have lost 4 games this year, they haven’t lost to slouches, dropping to OU by 10, KSU by 7, ASU by 7, and in their most recent game to OSU by 21. TA&M has lost to solid teams as well (OSU by 1, and Arkansas by 4) but they haven’t gave the impression they can crush quality teams, especially with their deficiencies in the secondary. They did beat Tech by 5, Baylor by 27 and ISU by 16, but I see Missouri being a little more comparable to TT, with their defense making up for a little of the lack of explosiveness on offensive. Plus James Franklin can pass the ball and against this weak A&M secondary they should be able to keep pace if not win outright.
My feeling is that, with history on their side, a good offense, and a decent defense, it’s nearly impossible to bet against Missouri +11 in this spot. Hell they may win straight up. But I definitely say play MO and the points before you consider betting A&M.

Dom177 · 10-25-11, 07:56 PM

For the Mizz/TAMU I really like the over. I haven't seen much of A&M but I feel like the Baylor game was a gift by them winning by 25+, Baylor is much better than what they showed that day. The more I look at the line the more I like it too...Hmm

spladle08 · 10-25-11, 07:58 PM

... my card so far and the first 2 games were more me being a degen than really having a confident read on the game.

Tuesday
Football - 102 Florida Intl -6 -113 for Game

Wednesday
Football - 103 Connecticut +10 -108 for Game

Thursday
Football - 107 Rice/Houston U over 70½ -108 for Game

Saturday
Football - 115 Central Michigan/Akron over 50 -110 for Game
Football - 125 Iowa/Minnesota U over 54½ -110 for Game
Football - 151 Air Force/New Mexico over 64½ -110 for Game
Football - 173 Hawaii -7½ -110 for Game
Football - 190 Oklahoma State -14 -110 for Game
Football - 195 Stanford -8 -110 for Game
Football - 149 Bowling Green -5 -110 for Game
Football - 125 Iowa -16 -110 for Game
Football - 123 Clemson -4 +100 for Game