Spladle08 Week 9 Redemption?

[spladle08]

continue to maintain that my picks "pre-Houston" dont hold much weight
0-2 to start the week (see how the picks from Houston on go, I predict a 9-3 record for the week... yes I am overly optimistic)

Tuesday
Football - 102 Florida Intl -6 -113 for Game (L- Too many turnovers/penalties.... they won by 3.... my bad)

Wednesday
Football - 103 Connecticut +10 -108 for Game (L haha stab me in the face... Uconn has the worst D I have ever seen and McEntee may be the worst QB in the NCAA... awful)


Thursday
Football - 107 Rice/Houston U over 70½ -108 for Game

Saturday
Football - 115 Central Michigan/Akron over 50 -110 for Game
Football - 125 Iowa/Minnesota U over 54½ -110 for Game
Football - 151 Air Force/New Mexico over 64½ -110 for Game
Football - 173 Hawaii -7½ -110 for Game
Football - 190 Oklahoma State -14 -110 for Game
Football - 195 Stanford -8 -110 for Game
Football - 149 Bowling Green -5 -110 for Game
Football - 125 Iowa -16 -110 for Game
Football - 123 Clemson -4 +100 for Game

[TexasLonghorn]

Spladle,

Been following you for a while and you obviously know what you are doing. I'm at this a long time trolling boards but staying out of the fray. Seen something I cannot explain and wanted your take. The line on that Bowling Green Kent State game has dropped from BG -6.5 to now being BG-3.5. I can find no information on injuries or other data to understand what is happening. Anytime a small college game with such overwhelming stats (in favor of BG) moves against the favorite, I can only conclude that the kicker may be getting a payday.

Any thoughts or explanations? Like you, I loved this game at -6.5 and I like it even more at -3.5 but am scared to back up the truck given the counter line movement.

Appreciate any thoughts.

[TexasLonghorn]

Sorry if post duplicated. Got computer Gremlins tonight.

[Greg2011]

Spladle,

Been following you for a while and you obviously know what you are doing. I'm at this a long time trolling boards but staying out of the fray. Seen something I cannot explain and wanted your take. The line on that Bowling Green Kent State game has dropped from BG -6.5 to now being BG-3.5. I can find no information on injuries or other data to understand what is happening. Anytime a small college game with such overwhelming stats (in favor of BG) moves against the favorite, I can only conclude that the kicker may be getting a payday.

Any thoughts or explanations? Like you, I loved this game at -6.5 and I like it even more at -3.5 but am scared to back up the truck given the counter line movement.

Appreciate any thoughts.

I was wondering the same thing now I'm having second thoughts about this game

[spladle08]

Hey guys I just woke up... I agree something fishy is at work... I'm very concerned about this line move .. I was even considering adding this play to a 4 teamer I liked, but not now... I will double check here in a couple hours. Cheers.

[spladle08]

I mean: Kent has had a decent home defense ranking 15th against the pass and 22 against the run but their 3 home opponents have been ULL, South Alabama, and Miami (OH), they were impressive holding Miami Ohio to 9 points but... BG beat this same Miami team 37-23 @ Miami... I dont think the "under-rated" defense is the reason for the move...

Possibly this is an expected let down spot after a big win over Temple? Kent is coming off a bye week?

I mean honestly??? Kent is 1-6 ATS... I swear is this game fixed? Kents closest loss this year was that 6pt loss last week, where they racked up a stellar 244 yards of total offense and converted 3 of 17 third downs.

From Accuscore: AccuScore is forecasting a close game with Bowling Green winning 52% of simulations, and Kent State 48% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. Bowling Green commits fewer turnovers in 44% of simulations and they go on to win 66% when they take care of the ball. Kent State wins 64% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. Anthon Samuel is averaging 56 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (28% chance) then he helps his team win 69%. Trayion Durham is averaging 43 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (23% chance) then he helps his team win 66%. SPREADS / TOTALS: Current Point Spread is KENT +5 --- Over/Under line is 40

I cant find anything that doesnt point BG right now.... I dont know what to say

[balls2wall]

Having to type this from my phone... but the short answer is: I like to keep the other more condensed with mostly my record and plays for the week, I feel like starting a weekly thread where write-ups and discussion can take place makes that a bit easier... sorry if its annoying, I'll consider combinding them next week.

No problem bro. It is your thread so do it however is best for you. I was just curious.

[spladle08]

Good luck this weekend.

[Jnots17]

I need that Houston Over as well in one of my teasers...I need over 65 but I still think it goes at least a TD higher then that. Houston needs to impress since their schedule is so week so I see them pouring it on....and with their stout D, they should give up 21 or so points.
Lets turn it around tonight!

[chitown17]

Bodog had the BG/Kent game down to 3.5 and now it is scratched

[spladle08]

LOL how weird is that?

There must be some serious inside info... There is NOTHING to suggest Kent should be competitive here. Might be $200 gone... meh well ish happens. Let me know of any other developments.

[Fanatik]

Fanatik, I'll PM you tonight fo sho... hopefully we can get a decent parlay going.
And thanks CHI

Have you gotten this far yet? I didnt get a chance to check last night...

[grizzlies1]

Spadle, 2 plays I like that that would be great if you have time to look at.

Michigan -12.5 home to Purdue
Oregon -35 home to Wash State

Thanks

[spladle08]

My Comp locked me out again but I will type them up and post once it lets me post. Again (this is from my phone)

[spladle08]

RAMBLING BUT IT MAKES SENSE TO ME:

Michigan -12.5 home to Purdue: I like Purdue +12.5

A few things right off the bat: I am a big Wolverine supporter but I don’t like this match-up. Im going to do this quick because I think we can get a read on the game without diving too deep.

Purdue is extremely balanced on offense (195/191) While Michigan is a beast when D-Rob is rolling and not so much when he is not. Michigan has only lost 1 game, and that was largely due to Michigan States stout run D, holding them to a season low 82yrds rushing, forcing D-Rob to beat them with his arm, which he simply cannot do without a run game. The Boilermakers Run D, is OK they give up 145yrds a game (same as Michigan) and they have bent often but only broken once, (giving up 287 to ND.) I think the D isn’t good enough to stop the Michigan O, but I think they can slow them down enough to cover this spread… I reckon I should go on a bit….

Purdue has been up and down this year, losing to Rice and beating Illinois, while also hanging close with PSU. They have looked good ever since the ND blowout.

Michigan has beasted everyone but MSU, but they have done that each of the last 2 years only to fall flat after losing. Another occurrence over the past 2 years is Purdue keeping it close. In 2010 they held Denard to 13/21 passing for 176 yards 1 TD and 2 INTs, he also had 22 carries for 68 yards and 2 fumbles, in a 27-16 victory for Michigan (with the same 12.5 spread we have this year.) In 2009 Purdue won straight up 38-36 (09 isnt really relevant now, but momentum is a bitch).

I’m not going to drum up much more because I know where I sit on this game.
Purdue shut down Scheelhaase who is a decent dual threat QB (held Illinois rushing to 121 yards though they average ~200), they can score a fair amount of points (29 per game), Michigan has to be a little let down after the spotlight has shifted from them to MSU, Purdue has played them well in the past (8-6 ATS since 92’ and 2-0 over the last 2 games), Michigan’s trends are towards them losing ( 3-16 ATS vs conference opponents over the last 3 seasons). I would stay away or bet Purdue to cover.

Sorry if this was too brief but meh, Im off the Wolverine Wagon.. sigh.

[spladle08]

Thought I liked a play on the total for a minute, but I was mistaken.

[spladle08]

Oregon -35 home to Wash State… Short glance analysis, IM STAYING AWAY
I don’t like the amount very much, I think Wash State can score, ~21 or so and I don’t like needing Oregon to top 56 to cover, but I will look a little more.

Wash has given up 44 both of their last 2 games (Stanford and Oregon St) and Oregon shouldn’t provide any relief for their defense.
I just read “Offensively, Washington State will likely need a big effort from senior quarterback Marshall Lobbestael, who will make his first start in three weeks” on ESPN.com that kid can pass, he
is the back-up but he has led the offense for much of the year… an offense that’s 10th in passing…

Sorry I got to wrap this up, I need to get some reports done for work before 5.

Oregon isn’t releasing whether James or Thomas is going to be back, and I don’t really think it matters. 38 is just too much points, Stanford only beat them by 30 (mind you it was 10-7 at half) and I think Stanford is a more dominant team. I don’t see Wash St having any shot at winning… but@ 35, Im staying away. I could see 28-56 or 48-21 some dumb score, but I just don’t like laying that many points against a team with a decent offense. Sorry I didn’t look deeper but it happens.

[Dom177]

I'm not playing the Mich game either but I do think they will cover. I live close to there and you're right the spotlight has shifted but I think they like it better that way. I think they were ranked too high after the first 4 or 5 weeks, especially coming into the State game. They are still in the first year under Hoke and he doesn't have all his guys he would like to have for his offense. If Purdue makes Denard throw they will probably win since he cant throw for shit. Other than that its michigan at home in front of 110k people off a bye week and a loss...If anybody plays the game probably shoot for the over for a small amount of $

Did you put any on Houston tonight spladle or did you just do the over?

[spladle08]

Just the over... Im into that for way too much (8u) so I don't want to play anymore money tonight, that is sweat enough for me. I dont really like Houston to cover the 28... don't get me wrong, I don't like Rice either, but its a lot of points and Rice has been known to put a few on Houston. I don't want to need to depend on 56 points from the Houston Offense, to counteract a mere 28 put up by Rice. (I think Rice will score at least 21...) Anyways, If I had to play a side I would probably choose Houston, but the Over seems much easier

[KingFriday]

Spladle: Ole Miss @ Auburn- Under 51

Our best receiver is injured Emory Blake, we just switched QB's b/c Trotter was awful and our O line is completely new.

we havent scored more than 17 pts 4 straight games, and our defense has been stepping up the game.

[spladle08]

I will def look at it... thanks KING

[broker651]

51 at the half is pretty cool.

[spladle08]

58 is cooler lol Like I said... Houston game forward.. I am confident in most of my picks... KNOCK ON WOOD

[spladle08]

And I failed on my plan to lay off the beer... sigh

[broker651]

Been tailing on every one of your plays plus my own stuff and tweaking here and there.
Down huge last three weeks or so, but confident and I had a massive week one to add to the bankroll for some buffer. At least tex is up a run. heh. Have em parlayed with the hou over tonight.
Anyway, in addition to the single plays I've been parlaying every one of your weeks plays for 100 bucks. If you ever call 100% on a week I'll pay off the house and send you some steaks. Just ask CougarBait. ha ha.
Love this time of year!!!

[broker651]

And BTW Don't feel like too much of a degenerate. I had one too many martinis the other night and found myself playing on f'ing Argentinian volleyball. I've never even watched or been too a volleyball game since high school, or watching the babes play on the beach.



And totally degen... Without a clue as far as money management...
That's me. ha ha ha

[broker651]

Sorry for dub post not sure why that happened...

[spladle08]

BROKER.... you are my hero

[broker651]

UDAMAN Spladle.
Here's Coug eating my massive steak. Ha ha.

http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-talk/903365-let-me-show-you-my-steaks-video.html

[broker651]

61!!!!

[broker651]

I'm a Retard... heh. 72.. That'll do nicely with a quarter plus to go.

[spladle08]

LETS GO RANGERS lol that video is greatness... Jessica may be a little concerned... lets make some money friend!

[broker651]

100+ would be a good omen for the week!

[spladle08]

continue to maintain that my picks "pre-Houston" didn't hold much weight
1-2 to start the week

Tuesday
Football - 102 Florida Intl -6 -113 for Game (L- Too many turnovers/penalties.... they won by 3.... my bad)

Wednesday
Football - 103 Connecticut +10 -108 for Game (L haha stab me in the face... Uconn has the worst D I have ever seen and McEntee may be the worst QB in the NCAA... awful)


Thursday
Football - 107 Rice/Houston U over 70½ -108 for Game W

Saturday
Football - 115 Central Michigan/Akron over 50 -110 for Game
Football - 125 Iowa/Minnesota U over 54½ -110 for Game
Football - 151 Air Force/New Mexico over 64½ -110 for Game
Football - 173 Hawaii -7½ -110 for Game
Football - 190 Oklahoma State -14 -110 for Game
Football - 195 Stanford -8 -110 for Game
Football - 149 Bowling Green -5 -110 for Game
Football - 125 Iowa -16 -110 for Game
Football - 123 Clemson -4 +100 for Game

[KingFriday]

good call on the over HU, spadle!

wow what a slugfest!!!!