Spladle08 Week 9 Redemption?

[spladle08]

I continue to maintain that my picks "pre-Houston" dont hold much weight
0-1 to start the week

Tuesday
Football - 102 Florida Intl -6 -113 for Game (L- Too many turnovers/penalties.... they won by 3.... my bad)

Wednesday
Football - 103 Connecticut +10 -108 for Game


Thursday
Football - 107 Rice/Houston U over 70½ -108 for Game

Saturday
Football - 115 Central Michigan/Akron over 50 -110 for Game
Football - 125 Iowa/Minnesota U over 54½ -110 for Game
Football - 151 Air Force/New Mexico over 64½ -110 for Game
Football - 173 Hawaii -7½ -110 for Game
Football - 190 Oklahoma State -14 -110 for Game
Football - 195 Stanford -8 -110 for Game
Football - 149 Bowling Green -5 -110 for Game
Football - 125 Iowa -16 -110 for Game
Football - 123 Clemson -4 +100 for Game

[Kodytena22]

Spladle I am going with a 3 team parlay this week so far I got Stanford and northwestern if you could give me your money 100% pick of the week what would it be for the 3rd game?

[qbsafety8]

no such thing as a 100%, newbie... but bol, i dont even know if i like those picks.

spadle, were both on UCONN tomorrow, BOL

[Kodytena22]

Obviously its never 100%..... Maybe I should have put what would "spladles"most confident pick of the week aside Stanford

[qbsafety8]

got itt.. looks like he likes iowa and ok state.. seeing as he thinks they cover such big spreads.

[collie]

Love your work mate. I don't really "tail" anyone but love gathering info from different people.
I see you like BG as do I but the over 39.5 seems to easy. IMO BG put up 30+ on their own. Just wondering of your thoughts on this please.

[spladle08]

Spladle I am going with a 3 team parlay this week so far I got Stanford and northwestern if you could give me your money 100% pick of the week what would it be for the 3rd game?

I like em all, but if I had to choose one right now... I dont think there is any way RICE/HOUSTON doesn't go over...with Iowa/Minnesota Over a close second. The rest are mostly games you will find mixed emotions about from other posters... but on the previous page I made my argument for them all. BOL


QB-safety... Im glad somebody is on it with me... I felt like a lot of the weekday games were coinflips, just tried to get on the right side... I locked 7u in (2 on FIU, 2 on Uconn, and 3 on the Houston Over) and then came to my senses, and didnt make a play for Friday... anyways I hope for a better result than last night. FIU had 1.7 million chances, but apparently thought they needed to keep the game close.
** and there is no reason to think they don't cover "such big spreads"... but if you have some supporting facts I will listen****


Collie, I am about to go back to sleep (work is broke down and I had WAY too much beer) but just off the top of my head the only thing I would be leery about is BG having a less than impressive offensive performance. We all know Kent cant score on anyone... and something like 21-3 is very likely. I think it's rolling the dice but it sure would be uncomfortable playing the under.

[spladle08]

Washington vs Arizona: Arizona +6.5 …
Before looking at any numbers, Im leaning Washington, despite my thinking that Arizona should turn it around soon with all that talent.

PF/PA is similar. Washington 34/33, Arizona 30/33.
Washington has the better record straight up and ATS winning all but 2 of their games in both categories (non-covers were E. Washington, and Stanford) and their marquee win so far comes in a 40-32 win over Hawaii at home, or a 31-14 beating of Utah on the road (whichever you feel like giving more weight).
At home this year they have beaten Hawaii by 8, California by 8, Colorado by 28, and E. Washington by 3…. Im starting to talk myself out of this.

Arizona on the other hand has a terrible ATS record and SU record. They lost to Okie St, Stanford, Oregon, USC, and then to a terrible Oregon State team (which I want to attribute to coming out of a brutal stretch of games). They took a week off after that game, and came back to trounce UCLA. Hmmm there are no common opponents but we can look at strengths and weaknesses.

Arizona has a pretty weak run game and depends heavily on Foles and the passing game (Criner*) to get something going. They will face a Washington team who isn’t particularly strong in either rush or pass defense, giving up 146 on the ground and 284 through the air.
*I already see something which I am going to have to shine light on. Washington is giving up 284 through the air, while Arizona is giving up 290, and having faced nothing but prolific passing teams (true Oregon is heavy on the rush but those screen passes add up) anyways without knowing a lot of the defensive players for either team, Im leaning toward Arizona having a significantly better pass-D than Washington and they are going to need a strong secondary effort to contain Foles… hmmm*
Washingtons offense however has been very strong. They have great balance with Polk and Price and are facing a D that gives up 173 yards per game on the ground and 290 through the air.

Arizona won last year @ home 44-14 with Washington winning the previous year @ home 36-33
11 of the last 15 games in this series have gone OVER

My decision:I think this game will hinge largely on Washington's secondary’s ability to limit the production by Foles. If they can keep Arizona from scoring I think Polk will have some ground success and this could open up the passing game for Price. I’m concerned by the fact that they have given up quite a few points to some “not so great” offenses. Holding only Utah to less than 20 (and they lost their starting QB at half) I don’t like either team in this game actually, but if I had to bet I would lean Arizona +6.5, I just think their passing game will do enough to give them a shot at winning this game, I also feel that the bookmakers are playing the public off the Stanford game. People saw a scrappy, athletic team and they have seen Arizona get trounced by all the big dogs and they think “Washington, at home, they were kind of-competitive against Stanford, they should roll… “ … just my 2 cents (I have a terrible NCAAF record over the past week so don’t put too much weight in it).

**The total is @ 70.5 and seems pretty accurate, I can’t see a play on it**

[chitown17]

Hey Spladle, I took Mich St last week, think they cover again, +4 @ Nebraska? Other games I was looking at were Ark -10 @ Vandy and West Virginia -7 @ Rutgers (even though WV always seem to kill me)

[spladle08]

lol Im not touching any of those games, I just got to work and getting all my equipment fired up. Once I get everything up and running I will look at all of them.

With no research just cold-leans, I would say:

MSU/NEB Ov 50

Vandy +10

and..... hmmm WVU -7 or Over 53 (this one is going to be tough)

[spladle08]

Actually its not going to be tough... that game will go over 53... and I'll tell you why before the day is over.

[Madison]

Missouri vs Texas A&M: Missouri +11, and OV 61.5 I hate to put in little effort but I didn’t eat anything but some granola bars this morning and the booze is taking effect. ANYWAYS LETS GO!!!!! I am immediately leaning over 61.5, seems way too easy. Both teams average a ton of points (40 for A&M; 34 for Missouri) Both teams giving up ~24 points per game, and combined they have hit or gone over 60 in 10 of 14 games…. I don’t hate it. Missouri has been the better team ATS going 4-3 while A&M posts a very unimpressive 2-5 record. Missouri in this spot seems like a bargain @ +11, but let’s double check. Both teams are very balanced on offense, Missouri has the better defense, and though A&M enjoys a home field advantage, I don’t think that will play a role in this game. Mizzou has won the last 2 battles and 4 of the last 5, and though they have lost 4 games this year, they haven’t lost to slouches, dropping to OU by 10, KSU by 7, ASU by 7, and in their most recent game to OSU by 21. TA&M has lost to solid teams as well (OSU by 1, and Arkansas by 4) but they haven’t gave the impression they can crush quality teams, especially with their deficiencies in the secondary. They did beat Tech by 5, Baylor by 27 and ISU by 16, but I see Missouri being a little more comparable to TT, with their defense making up for a little of the lack of explosiveness on offensive. Plus James Franklin can pass the ball and against this weak A&M secondary they should be able to keep pace if not win outright. My feeling is that, with history on their side, a good offense, and a decent defense, it’s nearly impossible to bet against Missouri +11 in this spot. Hell they may win straight up. But I definitely say play MO and the points before you consider betting A&M.

First off love your work and have to agree fewer bets will prolong your career.

"Plus James Franklin can pass the ball "... Have to disagree with you here simply based on last week. He was horrible. My distaste for Miss might have something to do with me having them plus 17.5 (I think). Trying to forget last week and move on. BOL

[spladle08]

Ha, thanks... I am not betting the game, but he is a decent QB.. and he is mobile. A&M doesn't have the best defense and I think he can exploit it.

Franklin has 11 TD's through the air and 8 on the ground... I like him (just not in spot-light match-ups), I dont like Missouri either and I am partial to A&M but I think Mizzou wins this one straight up.

Im not 100% sold and would definitely play the OVER before sides, but meh... just my 2 cents. BOL

And yeah trying to convince myself to play 8 or less each week but I cant seem to do it... hopefully I don't go over what I already have locked in... SELF CONTROL damnit!

[Fanatik]

Are you going to rank your plays this week... I like how you did that last week, as usual, I'm looking for a good 4 teamer...

[chitown17]

I followed your picks last week, with a couple tweaks and some money management I ended up ahead. I value your opinion and look forward to your full list. Keep up the good work.

[spladle08]

Fanatik, I'll PM you tonight fo sho... hopefully we can get a decent parlay going.
And thanks CHI

[balls2wall]

Honestly not trying to be a dick spladle. I always have people's back as long as they are trying to help the forum with info or whatever and you have no doubt been doing your fair share and then some.

With that being said, why do you have two threads going? You created the "thread for the rest of the season" and are posting info in it plus you have this one going for week 9.

No big deal, just curious. It seems it would be better to consolidate

keep up the good work

[spladle08]

Honestly not trying to be a dick spladle. I always have people's back as long as they are trying to help the forum with info or whatever and you have no doubt been doing your fair share and then some.

With that being said, why do you have two threads going? You created the "thread for the rest of the season" and are posting info in it plus you have this one going for week 9.

No big deal, just curious. It seems it would be better to consolidate

keep up the good work

Having to type this from my phone... but the short answer is: I like to keep the other more condensed with mostly my record and plays for the week, I feel like starting a weekly thread where write-ups and discussion can take place makes that a bit easier... sorry if its annoying, I'll consider combinding them next week.

[Rambo]

Anyone care to hear me ramble about a game... Im bored and drinking and ready to look at some stats... BOOM

How about the Chicago Bliss vs. Seattle Mist?

http://www.lflus.com/schedule/

[nocturnal012]

I'm with you on uconn +10 spladle. Pitt will probably win su but I don't think they're gonna be able to win this by more than 10.

[spladle08]

Hey my computer is finally letting me post

Rambo.. I think the Mist are the team to beat in the league.. ride them until the wheels fall off


Nocturnal, yeah Im expecting a 17-14 type game... but don't know much about either team so probably shouldn't have played. GL man

[chitown17]

Anyone have thoughts on Florida +3 at home against Georgia? I believe I heard that Brantley is coming back this week, but he may be rusty

[spladle08]

I will look at this as well when I get home, but Georgia is tough. I may lean them either way. Obviously the game being in Florida helps, but they Georgia offense can be a tough monster to deal with, and the defense isnt too shabby either.

[chitown17]

Georgia has always been so unpredictable for me. Its seems like when I'm on them they dont cover and when I fade them they do cover. I have a couple of those teams, its to the point where I tend to stay away from them.

[spladle08]

lol well I know as of now, I am not going to touch the game, but maybe something will jump out at me.

[Jnots17]

Lets get it tonight Spladle...Im on Uconn and the under teased 6pts...

If you get a minute check out the 3 teasers i have locked in and just tell me your opinion...hopefully this ends up being a better week then last!

[spladle08]

Im home and getting to work on some of these games, and will lok at ur teasers as well JNOTS... WHOOP

[spladle08]

Tried to type one for Nebraska vs MSU but couldn't find any good reason to favor either team, so I just gave up.

Nebraska vs MSU: Im wayyyyy too confused.

I know a lot of people are on Nebraska -4.5 due to good match-ups but pre-research I have no clue how anybody backs the Huskers ever!!!!I hate these guys.

Im looking at these numbers trying to form an unbiased opinion… I’m probably even a little partial to Nebraska after seeing some notable posters favor them, but I can’t see how you can honestly make a STRONG, case for either team.

At a glance: pros and cons.
MSU Pros: better records ATS (5-2), good run D to counteract a run heavy team, gained confidence by beating a team who has already crushed Nebraska, good passing game vs mediocre defense.
MSU Cons: On the road, Possible let down spot, weaker offense… what else?

Nebraska Pros: At home, stronger offense, may have seen things Wisconsin did to get the run going, not sure what else

Nebraska Cons: weaker defense, MSU beating Wisconsin could be intimidation factor, Taylor Martinez sometimes looks like the worst QB in college football.

Im sorry but this game looks like a complete toss… I have no clue what to even type here. The Total for the game is set @ 50 and I don’t hate the OVER as a play, Nebraska has found a way to top that number every game but the season opener. Michigan has only topped that number twice …. this could turn into a defensive battle… nevermind, I am completely lost on this game, look elsewhere, I don’t know what to say at all.

[spladle08]

Arkansas vs Vandy: I would lean Vandy +10
I’m sure I will have a decent opinion about this game

This one will come down to a stout Vandy defense vs a talented Ark offense. A lot of the public was let down last week when they didn’t cover against Ole Miss, I am concerned this line may have that factored in. My initial lean was towards Vandy but the more I think bout it the more I lean Arkansas. Let’s have a deeper look.

Vandy is 5-2 ATS, with the 2 non-covers coming to Alabama and South Carolina, they are historically terrible but their defense has made them a competitive team this year, ESPN thinks this switch to Aaron Rodgers’s younger brother gives them offensive hope, but I think that is more a function of Army being terrible. Anyway they had decent performances in a victory over Uconn, a 30-7 trouncing of Ole Miss, and a close loss to a very strong Georgia team 33-28… (not bad). Their 2 worst losses have come @ Bama and @ South Carolina but I am not too worried about those 2 games because this game is @ Vandy. Their defense is their biggest strength and though they do give up 21 per game there aren’t a lot of “Inflation numbers” (I mean some teams give up an average of 10 points per game but you see they gave up 0 to Eastern State, William and Thomas Prep Academy, and Kent State, but they also gave up 35 to Western Kentucky, and Eastern Michigan … I mean realistically that’s 35x2=70/5=14pts per but who cares you get the point) They are a tough D and can contain strong offenses, but I can still see Arkansas making it to 30, the next question is: Do we think Vandy can get in the end-zone. Outside of the Bama and SC games they have topped 24 in every game, and on the other side of the ball Arkansas has allowed 28 to offensively intept TROY, 38 to a tough A&M team, 38 to Bama, 14* to Auburn, and 24 to terrible Ole Miss. I think Vandy gets their points and keeps the game within 10.

Arkansas on the other hand is obviously known for their potent offense but they have had problems over the last few games. They do average 321 yards per game, but this Vandy defense is only giving up 191, so that could be an interesting matchup. ESPN brought light to an interesting fact:

“ The Razorbacks have faced first-half deficits in each of their last three games, trailing by an average of 14.0 points, but have managed to come away unscathed as they've outscored their opponents 64-10 after halftime.”


If they get a slow start here, this may be a SU loss for them, the Vandy Defenses isn’t going to be easy to come from behind against, and though Arkansas does average 13points more per game, beating this scrappy Vandy team is going to be a difficult task. Im not going to go too much more in depth but if I was forced to play this game I would lean Vandy +10, I don’t like the 52 total, but there could be a play. I can see a final like 28-21 or something like that. Good Luck with whatever you guys decide to play.

Note* Vandy has only given up over 300 yards passing this year 1 time (Georgia)

[spladle08]

Quick WVU vs Rutgers: Don’t know if all this rambling made sense but Rutgers +7

WVU averages 10 more points on offense (38) but this Rutgers defense gives up only 16.
Rutgers averages 28 on offense and the WVU defense has allowed an average of 25

both teams are 5-2 SU while Rutgers has the better record ATS (5-2 vs 3-4) they have chopped the O/U (combined) 7-6.

Historically they game is pretty close to even, 10-9 ATS in favor of WVU since 92’, over the last 3 seasons they have split ATS with WVU winning both games SU.

Everyone know Rutgers is a little tougher at home, and I do think that will be a factor here but I’m not sure how much of a factor. We all know the stories of these 2 teams, WVU being a world crusher outside of the loss to LSU and the crushing by Syracuse, and Rutgers being a tough defensive team with a decent offense. I think both teams are coming off of tough losses and both are looking to rebound big. The home crowd will help Rutgers as will the defense that has held all but 2 opponents to less than 200 yards passing, and held every opponent to less than 190 yards rushing. (They did beat Syracuse @ Syracuse, something WVU found to be difficult, but Syracuse is a random team) WVU has similar defensive numbers but hasn’t been as good at keeping teams out of the end-zone. Either way, the game is @ Rutgers and as 7 point home dogs, I don’t see how you can’t give them action if you are playing this game.
Note: I love WVU especially under Holgerson, but… I can see the Knights giving them fits especially after Syracuse gave them a blue-print on defense, blah… I guess give me Rutgers… I can’t play against WVU because they are world beaters one week and then clowns the next… Im not sold at all either way on this game so I am going to stay away, but if you gave me 2k and said I had to play and if I won I could have the winnings… Im throwing it on Rutgers or the Under and praying….. GL man.

[spladle08]

Georgia vs Florida: . Florida +3 take it for what its worth

*pre writing* I like the Dogs here… but let’s look at it for a more informed decision (it’s going to be a quick version though)

Florida has looked like garbage offensively these last 3 games averaging 9 points per game, but they should get Brantley back for this game so that will help. The Dogs have significantly better offensive numbers, and slightly better defensive numbers but we can’t give much weight to those offensive difference because without Brantley this isn’t the same team. Florida owns the series and has won each of the last 2 years covering the spread in both games. Hmmm am I talking myself out of Georgia?
Georgias D is ranked 6th in the country but ehhhhhhh Im just not sure. They just gave up 28 to VANDY… Im not feeling the dogs at all anymore, I just read the ESPN article and some things that worked against the Georgia bet are :

“Florida tries to avoid its longest losing streak in 23 years”
“Florida has won three straight in the series and 18 of 21”


I like the 23 years of history working with me here and Florida getting points isn’t the worst…
With Brantley this year they have had a great running game and decent passing game while Georgia has been solid against the run but did give up 253 against South Carolina and Marcus Lattimore ; and 200 against Vandy. Georgia has had a pretty balanced attack and Florida hasn’t shown anything spectacular on defense but they haven’t given up too much. I think this is going to be a close game and I think if Georgia was the team getting the points I would take them. Either way. Florida +3 take it for what its worth.

****sorry if this didn’t make much sense, I have been drinking and I’m losing focus, only going to look at games that truly spark my interest for the rest of the night… and obviously watch the rest of this UCONN game.. lol score score score ****

[Jnots17]

What do you think about Pitt -3 2H bet....I am regretting my Uconn pick and I dont see them outscoring them in the 2nd half the way this game is going.

[spladle08]

I dont like any second half play, but if you held a gun to my head (even a water gun) I would bet Uconn... they will start scoring and if Sunseri is out Pitt will stop.... Uconn or no play.

[spladle08]

GL NOTS

PS I still think Uconn covers the 10

[Jnots17]

Im holding off on the play...UConns O needs a spark!