Michigan +3 at Michigan State

[No coincidences]

Interesting. Dantonio and MSU have owned the Wolverines in recent years, but that might change this season. Been impressed with Michigan so far, and MSU seems kind of weak up front on both sides of the ball. Kind of figured MSU would open at -4 minimum -- Michigan might be ripe to pull this upset.

Thoughts?

Other early leans:

Mississippi State +5 vs. South Carolina
Iowa State +14.5 at Missouri
Illinois -3.5 vs. Ohio State
Wake +7 vs. Virginia Tech (still no respect for Grobe)
Northwestern +6 at Iowa
Vandy +12 vs. Georgia
Maryland +8 vs. Clemson

Can't believe K-State is a dog at Texas Tech either -- absurd. However, it's not good business to take a ranked road dog against an unranked opponent, so I'll pass there.

[Sunde91]

Probably playing Maryland and like ILL

Mich State is likely a big play. Denard is banged up again going against the #1 Total D in the country. State has the most talented D in the Big 10, stacked at every position. State held Notre Dame to 275 yards (they average 467). State is coming off a bye while Mich is on their 2nd of back to back road games.

[Inkwell77]

Yeah I capped that game and had Northwestern as the favorite. When I saw Iowa -6 I decided not to bet it, I must be missing something. don't really understand Iowa -6.

[No coincidences]

Probably playing Maryland and like ILL

Mich State is likely a big play. Denard is banged up again going against the #1 Total D in the country. State has the most talented D in the Big 10, stacked at every position. State held Notre Dame to 275 yards (they average 467). State is coming off a bye while Mich is on their 2nd of back to back road games.

I think those numbers are a bit skewed, given MSU has faced some pretty bad offenses outside of ND. I like Gholston and Worthy up front, and Bullough is making progress at LB, but I still think they're kind of weak in the middle. It'll be an interesting challenge for them. Cousins has to stop making stupid throws; he had some atrocious, freshman-esque reads at OSU.

[No coincidences]

Yeah I capped that game and had Northwestern as the favorite. When I saw Iowa -6 I decided not to bet it, I must be missing something. don't really understand Iowa -6.

NW's D has looked really bad. They own Iowa, though.

[TwoWays]

We got owned on Penn St. versus Iowa, NC. Think I'm done with the who owns whom angle for now.

[guy Fawkes]

Other early leans:

Mississippi State +5 vs. South Carolina
Vandy +12 vs. Georgia
Maryland +8 vs. Clemson

At first glance I'm all over the Michigan upset with you, but the other games I don't know if we're seeing the same teams. Hopeful research will show me what you're seeing, good luck with your capping early this week.

[GoBlue23]

Michigan State's offensive line is a mess right now. I expect Mattison to draw up some schemes that exploit this and have Cousins running for his life.

[BigdaddyQH]

This is your typical Vegas line, and I do not expect to see much change. Home team -3. If this game was in Ann Arbor, Michigan would be -3. The line did not budge in early wagering, so I doubt that you will see much movement, if any, during the week. I will pass on this game.

[bspring]

michigan better not start slow and get into a hole, MSU is better than NW... and for everyone saying this game rest on Cousins... sparty is going to pound the rock with Baker, Bell, and Caper...

[No coincidences]

We got owned on Penn St. versus Iowa, NC. Think I'm done with the who owns whom angle for now.

That wasn't the only reason I played Iowa, but yeah, the line and RLM said it all there. Hawkeyes were awful.

[No coincidences]

At first glance I'm all over the Michigan upset with you, but the other games I don't know if we're seeing the same teams. Hopeful research will show me what you're seeing, good luck with your capping early this week.

Just some first-blush leans.

[No coincidences]

michigan better not start slow and get into a hole, MSU is better than NW... and for everyone saying this game rest on Cousins... sparty is going to pound the rock with Baker, Bell, and Caper...

I can definitely see them establishing the run -- it would open things up for BJC, Martin and Sims.

Just not sure if it will happen, though, because of their OL. It's bad.

[GoBlue23]

Probably playing Maryland and like ILL

Mich State is likely a big play. Denard is banged up again going against the #1 Total D in the country. State has the most talented D in the Big 10, stacked at every position. State held Notre Dame to 275 yards (they average 467). State is coming off a bye while Mich is on their 2nd of back to back road games.

In regards to the bye, I found some interesting trends:

From 2002 - 2010, teams of the six BCS conferences have an overall win pct of 0.480 when coming off of a bye week. Big Ten teams in particular are a combined 17-32 when coming off of a bye during this stretch...good for a 0.35 winning percentage.

Dantonio coached MSU teams are 1-5 coming off of a bye...with the sole win coming in a 35-31 victory versus Pudure last year.


Now obviously these stats have no barring on the outcome of Saturday's game...but they somewhat debunk the myth of a bye week "advantage" IMO.

[chopperocker]

In regards to the bye, I found some interesting trends:

From 2002 - 2010, teams of the six BCS conferences have an overall win pct of 0.480 when coming off of a bye week. Big Ten teams in particular are a combined 17-32 when coming off of a bye during this stretch...good for a 0.35 winning percentage.

Dantonio coached MSU teams are 1-5 coming off of a bye...with the sole win coming in a 35-31 victory versus Pudure last year.


Now obviously these stats have no barring on the outcome of Saturday's game...but they somewhat debunk the myth of a bye week "advantage" IMO.

great info. something often missing around here.

[GoBlue77]

Michigan is my team and I think they pull the upset and upset is the correct word because MSU should be favored as they are. It will be very close but Michigan should avenge last years disaster.

Also like Illinois over Ohio State but highly disagree on your Maryland play.

[bspring]

Go Blue nothing like homin it up in picking Mich and against Ohio State lol

[Vin_vermillion]

MSU. Easy.

[Vin_vermillion]

In regards to the bye, I found some interesting trends:

From 2002 - 2010, teams of the six BCS conferences have an overall win pct of 0.480 when coming off of a bye week. Big Ten teams in particular are a combined 17-32 when coming off of a bye during this stretch...good for a 0.35 winning percentage.

Dantonio coached MSU teams are 1-5 coming off of a bye...with the sole win coming in a 35-31 victory versus Pudure last year.


Now obviously these stats have no barring on the outcome of Saturday's game...but they somewhat debunk the myth of a bye week "advantage" IMO.

great stats blue...and I have long thought the bye week to get healthy and have an advantage thing was BS.

If anything, I think it hurts teams having a layoff. That said, I am still taking MSU this week.

[No coincidences]

Adding two more leans:

Cal +3.5 vs. USC
Northern Illinois +2 vs. Western Michigan

Why is Georgia Tech only -8 at Virginia? Something fishy as hell about that line. Also Auburn +2 at home vs. Florida? It opened as a PK, and I'm sure the Tigers are going to be a one-sided play. Another weird line.

[Pickma$ter]

MSU. Easy.

This game has got me proplexed. Please provide any of your input toward your handicapping of this game. The line is set correctly in my opinon. Michigan state has played worst talent then michigan and laid down against Norte Dame. But Michigan State does have the defensive advantage here but Michigan finally has a defensive coach that can adjust schemes to stop opposing offensives from converting long drives. Michigan has a HUGE advantage on offense. With the line play of Michigan they might have success rushing the ball against that untested defense of State(there good) but its not easy to prepare against an offense like michigans, I call it a Hybride pro offense. they do a good job mixing in spread plays. But if michigan cant get pressure on cousins then they will be in trouble but Mattison will see the O-state game and see Cousins crumble under heat so expect several saftey biltz's come Saturday. I have a Strong Lean for Michigan.

[No coincidences]

This game has got me proplexed. Please provide any of your input toward your handicapping of this game. The line is set correctly in my opinon. Michigan state has played worst talent then michigan and laid down against Norte Dame. But Michigan State does have the defensive advantage here but Michigan finally has a defensive coach that can adjust schemes to stop opposing offensives from converting long drives. Michigan has a HUGE advantage on offense. With the line play of Michigan they might have success rushing the ball against that untested defense of State(there good) but its not easy to prepare against an offense like michigans, I call it a Hybride pro offense. they do a good job mixing in spread plays. But if michigan cant get pressure on cousins then they will be in trouble but Mattison will see the O-state game and see Cousins crumble under heat so expect several saftey biltz's come Saturday. I have a Strong Lean for Michigan.

Isn't that pretty much exactly what MSU runs?

[Pickma$ter]

No i never seen cousins do option zone reads??

[Vin_vermillion]

This game has got me proplexed. Please provide any of your input toward your handicapping of this game. The line is set correctly in my opinon. Michigan state has played worst talent then michigan and laid down against Norte Dame. But Michigan State does have the defensive advantage here but Michigan finally has a defensive coach that can adjust schemes to stop opposing offensives from converting long drives. Michigan has a HUGE advantage on offense. With the line play of Michigan they might have success rushing the ball against that untested defense of State(there good) but its not easy to prepare against an offense like michigans, I call it a Hybride pro offense. they do a good job mixing in spread plays. But if michigan cant get pressure on cousins then they will be in trouble but Mattison will see the O-state game and see Cousins crumble under heat so expect several saftey biltz's come Saturday. I have a Strong Lean for Michigan.

I don't give bigwrite ups, but I think Dantonio is one of the best defensive minds in all of CFB. OSU proved last weekend that it's offense under Braxton Miller isn't as bad as it looked vs Michigan St - and if that is any indication of how well MSU can shut down a similar style of offense (OSU runs), then Michigan will be in trouble.

Still not sold on Michigans defense either. Have not played a solid Offensive team all year...I think MSU can run the ball WELL on Michigan. (other than ND of course - and they could have easily put up 49 on Michigan)

Tell me what you think Michigan's offense is like if D Robinson is shut down as far as running the ball? Probably not too good, and that is why my play is MSU. BOL in whatever you decide.

[No coincidences]

No i never seen cousins do option zone reads??

I'm saying that MSU runs an advanced "pro" offense with spread mixed in.

Just because Cousins isn't Denard doesn't mean they don't run somewhat similar offenses now that RR is gone. MSU is a pro-style offense at its base with a lot of other stuff mixed in.

[No coincidences]

I don't give bigwrite ups, but I think Dantonio is one of the best defensive minds in all of CFB. OSU proved last weekend that it's offense under Braxton Miller isn't as bad as it looked vs Michigan St - and if that is any indication of how well MSU can shut down a similar style of offense (OSU runs), then Michigan will be in trouble.

Still not sold on Michigans defense either. Have not played a sold Offensive team all year...I think MSU can run the ball WELL on Michigan.

Tell me what you think Michigan's offense is like if D Robinson is shut down as far as running the ball? Probably not too good, and that is why my play is MSU. BOL in whatever you decide.

It's all going to come down to MSU establishing the run to buy Cousins time. I haven't been impressed with MSU's OL at all, but if they come to play and give Baker, Caper and Bell room to maneuver, that will make Cunningham, Nichol, Martin, Sims, etc. all the more dangerous in the passing game.

Baker's not having a very good year so far. He's scored once and is averaging less than 4 yards per carry. This could be a make or break game for him.

[Pickma$ter]

I don't give bigwrite ups, but I think Dantonio is one of the best defensive minds in all of CFB. OSU proved last weekend that it's offense under Braxton Miller isn't as bad as it looked vs Michigan St - and if that is any indication of how well MSU can shut down a similar style of offense (OSU runs), then Michigan will be in trouble. Still not sold on Michigans defense either. Have not played a solid Offensive team all year...I think MSU can run the ball WELL on Michigan. (other than ND of course - and they could have easily put up 49 on Michigan) Tell me what you think Michigan's offense is like if D Robinson is shut down as far as running the ball? Probably not too good, and that is why my play is MSU. BOL in whatever you decide.

Was hoping for more than that as Im still open on this game. Anyone can score on Nebraska as they are near(3rd from last) dead last in total defense in the big 10. Im just really concerned with the line play of michigan state and Denard will make plays trust me Michigan State already knows that. All the numbers are skewed due to lack of competion on both teams cant trust them on this game.

[travismcilrath]

michigan all day

[No coincidences]

Was hoping for more than that as Im still open on this game. Anyone can score on Nebraska as they are near(3rd from last) dead last in total defense in the big 10. Im just really concerned with the line play of michigan state and Denard will make plays trust me Michigan State already knows that. All the numbers are skewed due to lack of competion on both teams cant trust them on this game.

Denard made plays on MSU last year, too. Problem was, when it came down to making a big one, he mucked it up almost every time.

I can't wait to see what Gholston does in this game. That guy's a star in the making.

[travismcilrath]

nice picks

[Pickma$ter]

I'm saying that MSU runs an advanced "pro" offense with spread mixed in. Just because Cousins isn't Denard doesn't mean they don't run somewhat similar offenses now that RR is gone. MSU is a pro-style offense at its base with a lot of other stuff mixed in.

Ok got you.

[No coincidences]

nice picks

We'll see.

[travismcilrath]

illinois all day

[travismcilrath]

texas will romp

[travismcilrath]

meant too say clemson