Week 9 power ratings
Attached as an .xls file. Posting them any other way is a formatting nightmare.
I've been thinking more and more about LSU/Alabama and how the outcome of that game will shake up the BCS rankings. I have LSU and Alabama as being distinctly ahead of the rest of the pack for 1-2 (as I'm sure many do). Everyone is expecting a close game, but the question I'm posing is what if one team beats down the other on?. I don't want to debate which team is better right now, but what if one team wins by 10+ points through talent/luck/wtv? There's a very good chance that the losing team could fall to third or worse and a new team could take over that #2 spot with only 3-4 games left for each team in the season. Looking at who else is in contention:
Team (remaining opponents // SOS of remaining games // My ranking)
Alabama (bye, LSU, @MississippiState, GeorgiaSouthern, @Auburn // SOS#43 // PR#1)
- I lean to Alabama ending the regular season ranked #1 with a win over LSU. Their schedule after Week 10 is not terrible, but if they do manage to win vs LSU by only a small margin, they will still need to impress in the last 3 weeks to hold on to their #1 seed.
LSU (bye, @Alabama, WKU, @Mississippi, Arkansas // SOS#27 // PR#2)
- They've obviously impressed this season, however their two biggest wins have had underlying stories that take away from them a bit. They took advantage of two Oregon fumbles in the 3Q at the Oregon 21 & 41 yard lines of their game in what up until that point had been very close, and got to play Florida after Alabama had already crippled the team the week before and were missing two of their best offensive players in Brantley and Demps. If they beat Alabama, I will ride LSU all the way to the BCS Title game, but I'm not sold yet that they're the best this year.
Oklahoma (@KState, TAMU, bye, @Baylor, IowaState, @OKState // SOS#6 // PR#3)
- I think at this point, we can really almost eliminate Oklahoma from contention because their remaining schedule is just so tough. Four of their five remaining games are against teams that could legitimately beat the Sooners (3 of those on the road), and even going 4-1 would probably not be enough. They could go 5-0, but I just think it's too much of an uphill battle.
Oklahoma State (Baylor, KState, @TexasTech, @IowaState, Oklahoma // SOS#12 // PR#4)
- I like OK State to be live to decide their own fate in the last game of the season vs OU. Their opponents are tough, but the three hardest games are at home, and I see a lot of indicators that this team is a legit title contender that won't fall apart in the final weeks. They're my top contender outside of Alabama/LSU.
Stanford (@USC, @OregonState, Oregon, California, NotreDame // SOS#29 // PR#5)
- Stanford has looked great this year, but have feasted on weak opponents who have averaged over 260 passing yards allowed per game, which would be #96 in total pass defense on the year. The Cardinal's season really comes down to the game against Oregon, and the possibility of being undefeated. With even one loss, they don't have a prayer of contending due to weak schedule.
Oregon (WashingtonState, @Washington, @Stanford, USC, OregonState // SOS#34 // PR#6)
- The Ducks have been quietly going about their business since their loss to LSU in Week 1, but they were very much in that game until two extremely costly fumbles at their own 21 & 41 yard lines allowed LSU to go up by 17. The final score does not tell the story accurately. It was a gamble to play such a highly ranked opponent in non-conference play, and the Ducks lost that wager, but despite the loss are still in good position, currently ranked 6th in the BCS with only one significant opponent left to play in Stanford. If they can go 11-1 with their only loss to LSU AND if LSU beats Alabama, they could very well sneak into the big game for a rematch. A definite outlier, and they would need some help in other teams losing, but a possibility to sneak in if they get some good bounces.
Boise (bye, @UNLV, TCU, @SDState, Wyoming, New Mexico // SOS#112 // PR#9)
- Obviously a great team, but their opponents are so weak that they really need to play above expectations in these last few weeks. Going undefeated seems all but certain and doesn't prove much when their average opponent equates to around a 90th ranked team. I'm going to say they're already out of contention.
Clemson (@GTech, bye, Wake Forest, @NCState, @SouthCarolina // SOS#44 // PR#17)
- I rank Clemson well below where the polls do, as my rankings do not consider W-L record. Their offense is great, but when they face a good defensive team, they will get smothered. I like them to stay undefeated for a while longer, but I expect them to lose to South Carolina. They caught FSU at the perfect time to steal a win and Maryland handed them back the game in the 4Q. Let's just call them out of contention.
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Attached as an .xls file. Posting them any other way is a formatting nightmare.
I've been thinking more and more about LSU/Alabama and how the outcome of that game will shake up the BCS rankings. I have LSU and Alabama as being distinctly ahead of the rest of the pack for 1-2 (as I'm sure many do). Everyone is expecting a close game, but the question I'm posing is what if one team beats down the other on?. I don't want to debate which team is better right now, but what if one team wins by 10+ points through talent/luck/wtv? There's a very good chance that the losing team could fall to third or worse and a new team could take over that #2 spot with only 3-4 games left for each team in the season. Looking at who else is in contention:
Team (remaining opponents // SOS of remaining games // My ranking)
Alabama (bye, LSU, @MississippiState, GeorgiaSouthern, @Auburn // SOS#43 // PR#1)
- I lean to Alabama ending the regular season ranked #1 with a win over LSU. Their schedule after Week 10 is not terrible, but if they do manage to win vs LSU by only a small margin, they will still need to impress in the last 3 weeks to hold on to their #1 seed.
LSU (bye, @Alabama, WKU, @Mississippi, Arkansas // SOS#27 // PR#2)
- They've obviously impressed this season, however their two biggest wins have had underlying stories that take away from them a bit. They took advantage of two Oregon fumbles in the 3Q at the Oregon 21 & 41 yard lines of their game in what up until that point had been very close, and got to play Florida after Alabama had already crippled the team the week before and were missing two of their best offensive players in Brantley and Demps. If they beat Alabama, I will ride LSU all the way to the BCS Title game, but I'm not sold yet that they're the best this year.
Oklahoma (@KState, TAMU, bye, @Baylor, IowaState, @OKState // SOS#6 // PR#3)
- I think at this point, we can really almost eliminate Oklahoma from contention because their remaining schedule is just so tough. Four of their five remaining games are against teams that could legitimately beat the Sooners (3 of those on the road), and even going 4-1 would probably not be enough. They could go 5-0, but I just think it's too much of an uphill battle.
Oklahoma State (Baylor, KState, @TexasTech, @IowaState, Oklahoma // SOS#12 // PR#4)
- I like OK State to be live to decide their own fate in the last game of the season vs OU. Their opponents are tough, but the three hardest games are at home, and I see a lot of indicators that this team is a legit title contender that won't fall apart in the final weeks. They're my top contender outside of Alabama/LSU.
Stanford (@USC, @OregonState, Oregon, California, NotreDame // SOS#29 // PR#5)
- Stanford has looked great this year, but have feasted on weak opponents who have averaged over 260 passing yards allowed per game, which would be #96 in total pass defense on the year. The Cardinal's season really comes down to the game against Oregon, and the possibility of being undefeated. With even one loss, they don't have a prayer of contending due to weak schedule.
Oregon (WashingtonState, @Washington, @Stanford, USC, OregonState // SOS#34 // PR#6)
- The Ducks have been quietly going about their business since their loss to LSU in Week 1, but they were very much in that game until two extremely costly fumbles at their own 21 & 41 yard lines allowed LSU to go up by 17. The final score does not tell the story accurately. It was a gamble to play such a highly ranked opponent in non-conference play, and the Ducks lost that wager, but despite the loss are still in good position, currently ranked 6th in the BCS with only one significant opponent left to play in Stanford. If they can go 11-1 with their only loss to LSU AND if LSU beats Alabama, they could very well sneak into the big game for a rematch. A definite outlier, and they would need some help in other teams losing, but a possibility to sneak in if they get some good bounces.
Boise (bye, @UNLV, TCU, @SDState, Wyoming, New Mexico // SOS#112 // PR#9)
- Obviously a great team, but their opponents are so weak that they really need to play above expectations in these last few weeks. Going undefeated seems all but certain and doesn't prove much when their average opponent equates to around a 90th ranked team. I'm going to say they're already out of contention.
Clemson (@GTech, bye, Wake Forest, @NCState, @SouthCarolina // SOS#44 // PR#17)
- I rank Clemson well below where the polls do, as my rankings do not consider W-L record. Their offense is great, but when they face a good defensive team, they will get smothered. I like them to stay undefeated for a while longer, but I expect them to lose to South Carolina. They caught FSU at the perfect time to steal a win and Maryland handed them back the game in the 4Q. Let's just call them out of contention.
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