Suicidekings 2011 CFB Thread

[suicidekings]

Arkansas +3 (-110) x5
Texas A&M -2.5 (-105) x2
Navy ML (+262) x0.5

1-2 (+2.4u)

Auburn +9.5 (-108) x1
Auburn ML (+387) x0.5
Ohio State -2.5 (-110) x1
Ohio -16.5 (-103) x1

2-2 (+0.81u)

Virginia Tech -6.5 (-110) x3
North Carolina -6.5 (-110) x1
Texas 1H -5.5 (-110) x2
Alabama -4 (-105) x2
Alabama -3.5 (-108) x2
LIVE: Alabama pk (+105) x2
Nebraska ML (+274) x2
UCLA +23 (-105) x1

5-3 (+2.75u)

10/1: 8-7 (+5.96u)
YTD: 28-21-1 (+14.92u)

[DanzeM]

nice job sk. For a second there the Arkansas v A&M game was at 38-35 in favour of A&M, i was thinking you had some inside info ha, good job again.

[suicidekings]

Week 6 Games

No lines out yet, but these are the games I'm excited about for Week 6:

Oklahoma vs Texas @ Cowboy Stadium
The Sooners have been great this season so far, only really being challenged at all by FSU, however in my mind, a team that expects to win the National Title can't be giving up 532 yards in a game, like they did to Missouri (even though that game was well in hand the entire time). Without question, Oklahoma is a legit top tier team and a national title contender, however I'll be very surprised if they go undefeated this season. I'm calling for the Longhorns to win this game outright on the big stage in Dallas.

Texas was bad last season, but when you look at the makeup of this team, they have all the elements in place to compete with anyone in the country. They have smothering defense, and offensively are very consistent despite the QB rotation between McCoy and Ash, with a good balance between their running and passing game. I expect this to be a very competitive game. Despite liking the Longhorns to win the game, I'll be playing the spread, and anticipate something in the Longhorns +6 range. More points will be a bonus, and I'll take less being offered as a good sign that the books respect Texas more than the public likely will.

Florida @ LSU
I hate that Alabama dominated Florida as much as they did, and that Brantley was injured. If not for these elements, the line would likely have been favourable for LSU backers. If Brantley can't play this spread will likely be huge, but LSU will deserve it. I would have already made LSU an -11 point fave with the Gators at full strength. I like LSU in a blowout, but the size of the line will determine if this is a play or not.

Auburn @ Arkansas
Arkansas lost to Alabama, and so they really can't afford to relax against anyone for the rest of the season. I don't expect them to lose another game until they face LSU at the end of November. I expect Arkansas to dismantle Auburn, fired up as they are after their win over TAMU.

Georgia @ Tennessee
For all the preseason hype over Georgia, they've been a huge disappointment on the defensive end. Tennessee has been quietly going about their business, and with the problems Florida, South Carolina, and Georgia have at the moment, it's not beyond reason that Tennessee can contend for the SEC East if they play strong in their next few games. I like them to beat the Bulldogs here in a close game.

Ohio State @ Nebraska
Ohio State gets their suspended players back this week and this will be their first game with the full team. I really doubt that everyone's timing will be down and I expect OSU to be sloppy in this game with over-anxious players trying to play at 100% right away. Nebraska is coming off a critical loss to Wisconsin and I expect them to take it out on the Buckeyes before they go into their bye in Week 7.

[suicidekings]

Texas +9.5 (-112) x5
Arkansas -10 (+100) x3
Tennessee pk (-105) x2

[suicidekings]

Texas +9.5 (-112) x5
Arkansas -10 (+100) x3
Tennessee pk (-105) x2

Georgia Tech -13.5 (-107) x1

[suicidekings]

Texas +9.5 (-112) x5
Arkansas -10 (+100) x3
Tennessee pk (-105) x2
Georgia Tech -13.5 (-107) x1

Texas +10.5 (-108) x3 Now 8.84u to win 8u total on this game.

I feel really good about Texas here. They have everything to gain and nothing to lose in this game. I still think they can win this game, but realistically, taking the points are a much better option.

[Love The Action]

Texas +10.5 (-108) x3 Now 8.84u to win 8u total on this game.

I feel really good about Texas here. They have everything to gain and nothing to lose in this game. I still think they can win this game, but realistically, taking the points are a much better option.

I get why you would take Texas at +10.5, but was a little surprised to see you play them so aggressively earlier in the week under the key number of 10 at a slightly expensive +9.5.

This is, however, a perfect letdown spot for the Sooners against a young and athletic Texas squad that probably doesn't realize it is overmatched at this point...at least offensively. I think the Sooners win, but can't say with any certainty that they will cover. Probably won't touch this game, but will be rooting for you. Good luck.

[No coincidences]

I get why you would take Texas at +10.5, but was a little surprised to see you play them so aggressively earlier in the week under the key number of 10 at a slightly expensive +9.5.

This is, however, a perfect letdown spot for the Sooners against a young and athletic Texas squad that probably doesn't realize it is overmatched at this point...at least offensively. I think the Sooners win, but can't say with any certainty that they will cover. Probably won't touch this game, but will be rooting for you. Good luck.

A letdown spot? In the Red River Rivalry game?

[NYSportsGuy210]

Central Michigan-NC State Over 54 is the play here.

[suicidekings]

I get why you would take Texas at +10.5, but was a little surprised to see you play them so aggressively earlier in the week under the key number of 10 at a slightly expensive +9.5.

Largely because I didn't expect to be at the computer much this week and liked the Longhorns at +9.5. I'm a little surprised to see a consistent +10.5 everywhere now. I would have played it at +7.5.

This is, however, a perfect letdown spot for the Sooners against a young and athletic Texas squad that probably doesn't realize it is overmatched at this point...at least offensively. I think the Sooners win, but can't say with any certainty that they will cover. Probably won't touch this game, but will be rooting for you. Good luck.

I think the pedigree of the Texas freshmen is going to shine through on Saturday (McCoy, Shipley, and Brown). I also expect Bryan Harsin to make his mark on this game in a big way. Sooners fans probably haven't forgotten about him...

Either way, I suspect this will be a great game. Thanks LTA

[suicidekings]

6.5 PT, 6 TM Teaser

IOWA +11
PITTSBURGH -0.5
TEMPLE -3
TEXAS A&M -3
NORTHWESTERN +13.5
LSU -6.5

1u to win 6u

[numismatist]

Love the Volunteers today too. Seems like the entire world is on Georgia today. Good luck to us!

[Love The Action]

A letdown spot? In the Red River Rivalry game?

I get your point...perhaps not a letdown per se, but OU might just underestimate this Texas team based on last year and their youth....

[Love The Action]

Largely because I didn't expect to be at the computer much this week and liked the Longhorns at +9.5. I'm a little surprised to see a consistent +10.5 everywhere now. I would have played it at +7.5.



I think the pedigree of the Texas freshmen is going to shine through on Saturday (McCoy, Shipley, and Brown). I also expect Bryan Harsin to make his mark on this game in a big way. Sooners fans probably haven't forgotten about him...

Either way, I suspect this will be a great game. Thanks LTA

I decided to roll with the under in this game and leave the side alone. I have this one in the low 50's and expect the defenses to really step it up in this rivalry game. I think a lot of the points you use to support your Texas game also lends itself to the under as there is some correlation here. If Texas is going to win/cover, they need to stop OU's high powered attack. On the other end, the youth on offense might hurt against a tough OU defense. The intense rivalry and home cooking of Texas also supports the under imho. Let's root for a Texas win that stays under the posted total! Good luck bud

[No coincidences]

I get your point...perhaps not a letdown per se, but OU might just underestimate this Texas team based on last year and their youth....

I see. It's possible. I hope so, because like SK, I'm on Texas (just small though).

[suicidekings]

I decided to roll with the under in this game and leave the side alone. I have this one in the low 50's and expect the defenses to really step it up in this rivalry game. I think a lot of the points you use to support your Texas game also lends itself to the under as there is some correlation here. If Texas is going to win/cover, they need to stop OU's high powered attack. On the other end, the youth on offense might hurt against a tough OU defense. The intense rivalry and home cooking of Texas also supports the under imho. Let's root for a Texas win that stays under the posted total! Good luck bud

Sounds great to me. Let's get it.

[suicidekings]

Driskell is not starting anymore for Florida, so what little experience the Gators would have had at QB is null and void.

LSU 1H -7 (-109) x2
LSU -13.5 (-107) x2

[suicidekings]

Arkansas -10 (+100) x3

Arkansas 1Q -3 (-111) x1
Arkansas 1H -6 (-111) x1

I'm looking for the Razorbacks to really carry forward the tempo they showed in the second half last week vs TAMU. This is a really big game for Arkansas after getting beaten by 20 last season and already having one conference loss. Arkansas' strength in passing will be too much for Auburn's poor pass defense.

[suicidekings]

Texas +9.5 (-112) x5
Texas +10.5 (-108) x3
Georgia Tech -13.5 (-107) x1
Tennessee pk (-105) x2
LSU 1H -7 (-109) x2
LSU -13.5 (-107) x2
Arkansas -10 (+100) x3
Arkansas 1H -6 (-111) x1
Arkansas 1Q -3 (-111) x1
Teaser (6tm/6.5pt) x1

10/8: 4-6 (-6.12u)
YTD: 32-27-1 (+8.8u)

Today didn't break the bank, but it hurt...

[DanzeM]

any thoughts out on the lines out this week SK? I'm sure you will bounce back this week from the ol' longhorns debacle.

[suicidekings]

Week 7

South Carolina -2.5 (-110) x2

With the dismissal of Stephen Garcia today, the Gamecocks are in the best position they've been in for a long time. With Florida already sitting on 2 conference losses, SC with a win over Georgia, and SC miraculously avoiding both LSU and Alabama this season, the Gamecocks are in the drivers seat for the SEC East. They do still have to face Florida, Arkansas, and Clemson but the division title is theirs to lose.

In contrast, MSU has been having serious problems offensively of late, and were forced to remove Chris Relf from the game on the weekend against UAB (I have them ranked #116 in the FBS) at halftime, down 3-0. Dan Mullen has yet to announce if Relf will get another chance on Saturday or be replaced by backup Tyler Russell. This lack of production is not a new thing for MSU. So far this season, they beat up Memphis (rk#118), lost a shootout with Auburn, got raped by LSU, needed OT to beat Louisiana Tech (rk #76), lost 24-10 to Georgia (the last td was meaningless in the 4Q, down 24-3), and then had their debacle last week against UAB. This is a team that has a very misleading stat sheet and South Carolina is an excellent defensive team. With their QB issues and SC's excellent pass defense (#3 in the country in yardage), I don't expect MSU to be able to pass the ball at all in this game, forcing them into a one dimensional offensive scheme where they will rely heavily on Vick Ballard to run the ball. Again though, MSU's rushing stats are very misleading as they put up 544 of their total 1130 yards in the first two games, which has left them averaging only 146 rushing yards per game in their last 4 games, which is about average in the FBS.

So I really think that MSU is going to have a hard time putting points on the board in this game. When asked about the game, Dan Mullen's statement listed stopping Marcus Lattimore their #1 priority on defense, not giving any respect to Connor Shaw's ability to run the offense whatsoever. But really, this is a meaningless statement, just trying to put on a strong front. Defensively, they couldn't stop Auburn's Michael Dyer (143 yards rushing, 7.9 ypc, 2TD), LSU's Spencer Ware (107 yards rushing, 4.9 ypc), or even Georgia's Isaiah Crowell (107 yards rushing, 4.7ypc) so I really don't think they have much of a chance of containing Marcus Lattimore.

These are two teams headed in opposite directions and there's really nothing to support the idea that this will be a close game. My model spit out a 27-17 final score (SC -10, 44) but I feel like even that score is skewed in MSU's favour by their hot and cold stat sheet. I liked this line at the opening -4.5 and I love being able to get this line at the current SC -2.5. I don't agree with the early week line movement and expect the line to reverse before kickoff.

[suicidekings]

any thoughts out on the lines out this week SK? I'm sure you will bounce back this week from the ol' longhorns debacle.

Just needed a couple days off after a rough Saturday and an even worse Sunday

Honestly, I looked at the lines when they came out on Sunday, but despite seeing a lot of lines that I found interesting, there wasn't anything that really jumped off the page as a line I wanted to get ahead of. I'm working my way through them right now. More to come.

[DanzeM]

Understandable mate. I like your thoughts on the South Carolina game. Are you going to touch the Texas game?

[suicidekings]

Kansas State ML (+156) x1

[sandman0713]

agree with your thoughts on the miss state game completely. anything can happen in college football...but after watching msu last week against uab, i think they are in for a serious drubbing here. anyways...good luck this week man. bad weeks happen to everyone as i am sure you know. just don't let it change your style that has obviously worked for you man. you are one of the few on here who actually take time to research the game before posting, and i love to read the thoughts of someone who knows their stuff each week. even on the games i am not betting i still read what some of you guys have to say, and then i watch in the game for advantages or players you all talk about. anyways i am just sayin man, keep up the good work bro. a lot of us value your opinion and enjoy your posts.

[uwack23]

suicide what do you think about this:
177. Oklahoma State (Cowboys) -310


123. Georgia Tech (Yellow Jackets) -300


119. Clemson (Tigers) -310


125. South Carolina (Gamecocks) -150

All ML's


181. South Florida (Bulls) -285


216. Baltimore (Ravens) -400


103. USC (Trojans) -160

[suicidekings]

South Carolina -2.5 (-110) x2
Kansas State ML (+156) x1

Rutgers -4 (-103) x1

A lot of people are sleeping on Rutgers at the moment, but they've impressed me recently. Rutgers is solid against the rush and will make it hard for Navy to move the chains as much as they normally do in games. This game will be all about a strong defensive effort for 60 minutes with time of possession being a big factor. Rutgers gameplan here will be to try to take the run away from Navy as much as possible (Rutgers is allowing only 94 ypg rushing this season), forcing Navy into a situation where they feel they have to pass to move the ball. The Rutgers secondary has been effective this season and has 12 interception (4 returned for TDs). In short, the team that controls the clock wins this game. I think Rutgers defense is going to have a good day and create opportunities for the offense to work. Navy does not have a good punter and Rutgers should start in strong field position more often than not.

I actually struggled to find games on this card that appealed to me. These are three that I liked when I saw them and I think they're all strong plays. After last weekend, I put a lot of time this week into improving my power rankings model for this week and so I'm treading lightly, especially with the road faves like Clemson that look so good on paper. I won't even get to watch these games so I'll be hoping to come home after to a 2-1 record or better. Good luck to all.

[suicidekings]

suicide what do you think about this:
177. Oklahoma State (Cowboys) -310


123. Georgia Tech (Yellow Jackets) -300


119. Clemson (Tigers) -310


125. South Carolina (Gamecocks) -150

All ML's


181. South Florida (Bulls) -285


216. Baltimore (Ravens) -400


103. USC (Trojans) -160

I like all of these in theory. As I say, I haven't had a lot of time for NCAAF this week and decided to put more of my attention to NFL. The only one that I would question is USF, as I don't have much respect for this team.

[suicidekings]

agree with your thoughts on the miss state game completely. anything can happen in college football...but after watching msu last week against uab, i think they are in for a serious drubbing here. anyways...good luck this week man. bad weeks happen to everyone as i am sure you know. just don't let it change your style that has obviously worked for you man. you are one of the few on here who actually take time to research the game before posting, and i love to read the thoughts of someone who knows their stuff each week. even on the games i am not betting i still read what some of you guys have to say, and then i watch in the game for advantages or players you all talk about. anyways i am just sayin man, keep up the good work bro. a lot of us value your opinion and enjoy your posts.

Cheers brother. Thanks for the kind words. I actually feel like writing about the games makes me a better capper as I'm forced to formally support my position on games. My computer model has been tweaked to the point where I like how my power ratings are coming out and I'm planning on posting them (all 120 teams) this week along with which teams I think are due to improve/regress. We're finally at the point of the season where the numbers are more meaningful.

Good luck tomorrow with your plays.

[Love The Action]

Cheers brother. Thanks for the kind words. I actually feel like writing about the games makes me a better capper as I'm forced to formally support my position on games. My computer model has been tweaked to the point where I like how my power ratings are coming out and I'm planning on posting them (all 120 teams) this week along with which teams I think are due to improve/regress. We're finally at the point of the season where the numbers are more meaningful.

Good luck tomorrow with your plays.

I am interested in seeing your rating and I agree with your assessment. Right around week 7 all of my date, and especially the advanced stats I use, become much more reliable. I'm expecting a big weekend and I know you are too. Good luck SK

[suicidekings]

South Carolina -2.5 (-110) x2
Kansas State ML (+156) x1
Rutgers -4 (-103) x1

North Carolina -2.5 (-102) x1

[suicidekings]

LIVE (0-0, 1Q): Florida pk (-124) x2

[suicidekings]

LIVE (0-0, 1Q): Florida pk (-124) x2

bullshit call on the fair catch by Rainey with the Auburn player right in his face. I still expect Florida to win this game, but a terrible start...

[suicidekings]

Utah State -2.5 (-110) x0.5

[No coincidences]

LIVE (0-0, 1Q): Florida pk (-124) x2

I can't believe how bad this team is SK. Wow.