Suicidekings 2011 CFB Thread

[suicidekings]

This will be my first full season capping CFB after a few years of selective plays. We'll see how it goes. Plays will all be one unit for the first few weeks

Good luck to all

[suicidekings]

week 1

LSU ML (+144)
northwestern +4 (-109)
houston -3 (+104)

Leans: Western Michigan +14, BYU -2.5, Arkansas State +20, Boise State -3

[Love The Action]

Nice to see you around SK...hope all is well.

So, you really think LSU can get it done with Lee. No doubt he has the experience, albeit from 2009, but I'm just not sold yet. It's funny how both teams are mired in NCAA violation hell right now, but I think the loss of Jefferson and Shehperd hurts LSU more than the loss of Harris hurts Oregon.

It's rare that LSU faces another team outside of the SEC with as much as team speed as Oregon and the pace of their offense will be tough to slow down now with Thomas having another year under his belt and ofcourse James. Although, as I am sure you know, Oregon's S & P+ ratings overall and on offense/defense were nothing spectacular for the hype they received. Plus, I think their defense will regress this year which will allow more points and keep the ball away from the offensive playmakers.

I lean Oregon here but probably no play because I can't find a clear edge. Good luck on your plays and on the season!

[No coincidences]

[suicidekings]

Nice to see you around SK...hope all is well.

So, you really think LSU can get it done with Lee. No doubt he has the experience, albeit from 2009, but I'm just not sold yet. It's funny how both teams are mired in NCAA violation hell right now, but I think the loss of Jefferson and Shehperd hurts LSU more than the loss of Harris hurts Oregon.

It's rare that LSU faces another team outside of the SEC with as much as team speed as Oregon and the pace of their offense will be tough to slow down now with Thomas having another year under his belt and ofcourse James. Although, as I am sure you know, Oregon's S & P+ ratings overall and on offense/defense were nothing spectacular for the hype they received. Plus, I think their defense will regress this year which will allow more points and keep the ball away from the offensive playmakers.

I lean Oregon here but probably no play because I can't find a clear edge. Good luck on your plays and on the season!

To be honest, the LSU play is a pure value play. Oregon was getting WAY too much love here, and I'll take +144 on as many coinflip games as I can. I'm really not a big LSU fan. I hope that they really pull away in this game for a big win because I love the idea of betting against them this year in several spots on inflated lines if they can knock off the Ducks in style. LSU is overrated.

At any rate, Houston and Northwestern came through for me so it will be a net positive day to start the season off. Who are you really liking/hating this season?

[suicidekings]

[suicidekings]

week 1

LSU ML (+144)
northwestern +4 (-109)
houston -3 (+104)

YTD: 3-0 (+3.48u)

[suicidekings]

WVU 2H -10.5 (+100) x1

[suicidekings]

WVU 2H -10.5 (+100) x1

Cancelled by sportsbook despite being an eventual winner.

9/4: 0-0-1
YTD: 3-0-1 (+3.48u)

[suicidekings]

9/5: Hurricanes ML (+153) x1

[og4667]

good stuff SK...will be checking out this thread. These weather delays/cancellations are rough hopefully they get tonight's game in.

[suicidekings]

good stuff SK...will be checking out this thread. These weather delays/cancellations are rough hopefully they get tonight's game in.

Cancellations from weather even out over time, despite being frustrating when they happen. I'd still prefer a push to a sloppy, unpredictable game caused by playing through the storm.

Good luck this year, og.

[suicidekings]

9/5: Hurricanes ML (+153) x1

YTD: 3-1-1 (+2.48u)

[suicidekings]

9/10: Auburn +7 (-101)

[Love The Action]

YTD: 3-1-1 (+2.48u)

Great start

PS: So is that your new girlfriend in your avatar?

[suicidekings]

Great start PS: So is that your new girlfriend in your avatar?

I was torn between:



and



for my avatar, not really having a particular school in mind to represent. I feel like it was a win-win choice, but left to my own devices, I'll always take the brunette. And my gf would murder me if I ever posted a picture of her in here...

[FishFace5]

Kings i gotta say I woulda went with the chic with the knee highs and yellow thong......

[suicidekings]

9/10: Auburn +7 (-101)

Adding:

South Carolina -2.5 (-115) x1

Leans: NIU -6.5, Penn St +10.5, USC -9.5,

[thetrinity]

is that usc chick an asian? part asian maybe. wow either way.

[suicidekings]

Week 2

Auburn +7 (-101)
South Carolina -2.5 (-115)

Adding:
Penn State +10.5 (-115)
Notre Dame -3 (-105)

Leans: NIU -6.5, Virginia Tech -17, USC -8.5

[Love The Action]

As scary as it is, I have to agree with the ND play. They will have the situational edge having played like shit last week and losing last year in south bend. ND has a much better defense and the offensive weapons to get it done in the big house. Good luck on your plays SK


Oh...and I don't think you could have gone wrong either way with the new avatar..smoking!

[suicidekings]

As scary as it is, I have to agree with the ND play. They will have the situational edge having played like shit last week and losing last year in south bend. ND has a much better defense and the offensive weapons to get it done in the big house. Good luck on your plays SK

Thanks LTA.

As recently as yesterday, I was set against playing this game at all, but the more I thought about it today at work, the more sure I am that Notre Dame will leave the shame of last week's disaster behind and beat down Michigan, playing an efficient and tight game. For all the hate aimed at ND, they have a lot of tools to work with, and they are strongest where Michigan is their weakest. The Irish passing game vs the Wolverine secondary is a total mismatch.

[suicidekings]

Week 2

Auburn +7 (-101) x1
South Carolina -2.5 (-115) x1
Penn State +10.5 (-115) x1
Notre Dame -3 (-105) x1

Adding:
USC -8.5 (-108) x0.5
WKU +9.5 (-103) x0.5

I'm off to the cabin for the weekend, so I won't actually get to see any of these games... Good luck to all this weekend.

[Dexter]

GL with the season SK...

[suicidekings]

Week 2

Auburn +7 (-101) x1
South Carolina -2.5 (-115) x1
Penn State +10.5 (-115) x1
Notre Dame -3 (-105) x1
USC -8.5 (-108) x0.5
WKU +9.5 (-103) x0.5

Week 2: 3-3 (-0.22)
YTD: 6-4-1 (+2.26u)

Treading water this week... I didn't watch the ND @ MU game, but just looking at the box score, I'm sure it was ugly.

[suicidekings]

Week 3:

Oklahoma -3 (-110) x1
Clemson -3.5 (-109) x1



Leans: South Carolina -18.5, Texas -3, Mississippi -1, Ohio -2.5

[suicidekings]

GL with the season SK...

Thanks Dex.

[suicidekings]

Week 3:

Oklahoma -3 (-110) x1

I circled this game on my calendar 2+ months ago, as I'm sure both of these teams did. With a bye in Week 2, OU has had 2 weeks to prepare for this game, and it's probably the toughest matchup they face all season. That being said, I'm not that high on FSU and expect the Sooners to come into this game with all kinds of confidence after the 47-17 beating they laid on the Noles last season.

This game boils down to whether or not the Seminoles defense can stop Landry Jones from connecting with his talented receiver corps. If OU gets their passing game going, this could be a very ugly game, and FSU will stand no chance. Unfortunately for FSU, they've played two extremely easy games in the first two weeks that just won't prepare them for the high level of play the Sooners will bring to the field.

Clemson -3.5 (-109) x1

Last year, Auburn barely beat the Bulldogs in Week 2, 17-14 and then followed that in Week 3 with a narrow win over Clemson in OT, 27-24. This year, they are again coming off a hard-fought win vs MSU before facing Clemson. However, the 2011 Auburn team is a far cry from the 2010 version. They're not as bad as preseason predictions made them out to be, but they are definitely vulnerable, allowing an average of 490 total yards in their first two games.

This is Clemson's last non-conf game before facing FSU and VTech in Weeks 4 & 5, allowing them an opportunity to elevate their level of play against a legit opponent before facing the ACC elite teams, building some confidence in front of the home crowd.

Adding:

Texas -3.5 (+100) x1

Word came down yesterday that Gilbert is out and will be replaced by Case McCoy (Colt McCoy's younger brother) and spotted by David Ash (freshman). This is a really big move for Texas. Gilbert has been poor this season and Mack Brown is not being shy about shaking things up, in the interest of bouncing back from the Longhorns' abysmal season in 2010. Most notably, Brown played 18 freshmen in last Saturday's game against BYU, making it clear that anyone that proves themselves will get a chance to play, regardless of seniority. With a bye next week, I expect a big effort from this Texas team as a whole. McCoy/Ash have an opportunity to really push against the below average Bruins squad that follows this game in Weeks 4/5 with B2B tough conference games @ Oregon State and @ Stanford, and put up a win after the Longhorns fell to UCLA by 22 points last season. It's a nice spot for Texas, and I like them to cover the -3.5 comfortably.

[suicidekings]

9/15

Mississippi State ML (+150) x1

[suicidekings]

9/15

Mississippi State ML (+150) x1

YTD: 6-5-1 (+1.26u)

[suicidekings]

9/16

Boise State -20 (-105) x3

Let's be honest here. Toledo is a decent midrange team that's going to get knocked the **** out tonight by a Boise team that's had 2 weeks to prepare after a relatively easy season opener vs Georgia.

The Broncos have it tougher than other top teams in that they've always been on the outside looking in. Building on the strength of last season, they come into this year as a legit contender but know that position is precarious if they allow themselves to not being it 100% each week. The Broncos watched the Rockets play a tight game against a depleted OSU team last week and will not be passive in their approach to this game.

Toledo allowed over 100 yards in penalties and allowing their QB to be sacked 4 times, in addition to generally sloppy play. Toledo's coach, Tim Beckman, has stressed the need to play clean, mistake-free football as the key to winning tonight, and these mistakes being the reason they were not able to close out the game against OSU. However, when looking at how the game went last week, it's pretty apparent that Toledo was very fortunate early in the game, scoring 15 points in the 1Q on a blocked punt resulting in a TD and completing a 66 yard passing play for their second TD. It's unlikely that Toledo will be able to repeat plays like this again this week against a superior Boise defense.

All told, Toledo had 170 of their 338 yards of offense in the 1Q on 15 plays (11.3 ypp) but only managed 168 total yards on 57 plays (2.9 ypp) in the remaining 3 quarters. I think that Toledo is really going to struggle to score points in this game, no more able to run on Boise than they were on OSU, and I can't envision them being able to pass effectively with the Boise defensive front line pressuring Dantin/Owens all game. On the other end, Kellen Moore passed at a 71% rate last year and managed 82% against Georgia 2 weeks ago. I expect him to be very effective tonight against an average Toledo secondary. Doug Martin will lead the rush for the Broncos again and will likely gain 100+ yards himself against a Toledo defensive line that's missing some of it's best starters to injury.

All in all, this is going to be an exciting game, and I'm confident in the Broncos covering this spread with ease.

[Dexter]

i added $200 more to the play today for 4u total....love the prep time differential for each time. lets get it.

[suicidekings]

i added $200 more to the play today for 4u total....love the prep time differential for each time. lets get it.

I've been keeping the plays light so far because I've been out of town for the past two weekends and haven't really gotten a chance to watch many games at all, but this one is pretty straightforward and a solid spot to lean into it a bit. Add to that, Boise is one of only 3 teams to be hitting at over 60% ATS for the past 10 years (along with V.Tech and Ohio State). There's a good reason for that.

Here's to starting off the weekend in the right way.

[Love The Action]

9/16

Boise State -20 (-105) x3

Let's be honest here. Toledo is a decent midrange team that's going to get knocked the **** out tonight by a Boise team that's had 2 weeks to prepare after a relatively easy season opener vs Georgia.

The Broncos have it tougher than other top teams in that they've always been on the outside looking in. Building on the strength of last season, they come into this year as a legit contender but know that position is precarious if they allow themselves to not being it 100% each week. The Broncos watched the Rockets play a tight game against a depleted OSU team last week and will not be passive in their approach to this game.

Toledo allowed over 100 yards in penalties and allowing their QB to be sacked 4 times, in addition to generally sloppy play. Toledo's coach, Tim Beckman, has stressed the need to play clean, mistake-free football as the key to winning tonight, and these mistakes being the reason they were not able to close out the game against OSU. However, when looking at how the game went last week, it's pretty apparent that Toledo was very fortunate early in the game, scoring 15 points in the 1Q on a blocked punt resulting in a TD and completing a 66 yard passing play for their second TD. It's unlikely that Toledo will be able to repeat plays like this again this week against a superior Boise defense.

All told, Toledo had 170 of their 338 yards of offense in the 1Q on 15 plays (11.3 ypp) but only managed 168 total yards on 57 plays (2.9 ypp) in the remaining 3 quarters. I think that Toledo is really going to struggle to score points in this game, no more able to run on Boise than they were on OSU, and I can't envision them being able to pass effectively with the Boise defensive front line pressuring Dantin/Owens all game. On the other end, Kellen Moore passed at a 71% rate last year and managed 82% against Georgia 2 weeks ago. I expect him to be very effective tonight against an average Toledo secondary. Doug Martin will lead the rush for the Broncos again and will likely gain 100+ yards himself against a Toledo defensive line that's missing some of it's best starters to injury.

All in all, this is going to be an exciting game, and I'm confident in the Broncos covering this spread with ease.

Great writeup....if either of my books go back down to 20, I'll be on it with you. GL.

[suicidekings]

9/16

Boise State -20 (-105) x3

YTD: 7-5-1 (+4.26u)

Moving forward, I obviously loved what I saw tonight from Boise for the most part. Moore and Martin are beasts and in general the team plays with the kind of determination that can really be relied upon.

As far as Toledo goes, they impressed me tonight. Specifically, Owens played an excellent game, and I feel like he should be the full time #1 QB rather than splitting time. The Rockets are shooting themselves in the foot a bit with their 2 QB "system". Page was also very good tonight. Having played their last two games against Ohio State and Boise, they are geared up to a high level of play right now and should be pissed about the errors they made in the last two weeks when they face a subpar Syracuse next week. I would expect the line to be around a pick and feel like Toledo will have a lot of value for Week 4.