Wal's 2011 College Football Thread

[wal66]

These aren’t official plays. They are merely the automatic qualifiers. I don’t agree with all of them but until I can cap them out I won’t know for sure.

NC State +7
North Carolina +6
Clemson +3
Miami -13
Bowling Green +6
Virginia Tech -18.5
Virginia -3
Florida -18
Oklahoma St +3
Utah St -6.5

[wal66]

Florida -17 (-130)
Georgia -10 (-110)

Florida at Kentucky

This is not a no-brainer. I mean it is Florida's first road game, Brantley is still getting his footing and confidence level upped, we still don't have a "go to" receiver, we still have serious Red Zone issues, Demp's is banged up a little which all are reasons to be at least a little concerned. If those aren't serious enough reasons, Florida has Alabama on deck.

Kentucky is really pretty awful. They don't present a serious passing threat, they like to run the ball but aren't really all that good at that plus that is where Florida has improved the most on defense.

I try very hard to not be a homer but I just can't convince myself that this isn't a solid play. I can't see Kentucky putting up more than 10 points and honestly I think that is being generous. Florida even with the issues that they have should be good for 4 touchdowns and I honestly believe they will score 35+.


Georgia at Ol' Miss

Georgia has won the previous 7 against the Rebel's including last year when they routed them 45-17 with a much better (at least offensively speaking) Ol' Miss team.

Unlike the Florida game this one isn't a program qualifier but I still like the Bulldog's chances to get an easy cover. I actually like their chances more than Florida even if I did get way too "involved" with that game from a wager perspective.

I see Georgia winning this in the 311-10 range.



I will probably post more plays this week but for posting sake cause if these 2 lose instead of just a recreational gambler I will be a recreational capper.

[Blackroc78]

I like you in depth reasons as to why you like the games your capping, keep up the good work!

[wal66]

Obviously I meant 31-10 on the Georgia game not 311-10.

[AdaBarber]

What's good Wal? These are my plays for this weekend:

UCF +3.5
Idaho +6
S. Carolina -15.5
Oregon State -3
Florida State -1
Temple +9.5

Happy pickings! I am on the other side with the Clemson and Florida picks. I just couldn't put my bread on Kentucky though. They are about as bad as Memphis! What is your reasoning on the Clemson lean? Do you think Oklahoma exposed them?

[wal66]

Ada, qualifiers aren't leans. They are merely potential plays the meet minimal requirements. It's the process I use to help eliminate the amount of games I have to cap. Clemson merely qualifies to be capped out.

As far as that game goes though I will be staying away. FSU was in a physical battle with Oklahoma but the Nole's are beast. I'm concerned about Manuel. If he is healthy they have a shot, if he isn't and they are forced to play Tricket I am concerned even after the decent showing he had against the Sooner's.

Even if I knew Mauel was 100% I'm not sure I would have a play in this game though. Clemson is tough at home and if I remember correctly FSU has lost 4 straight there. On the flip though I tend to think FSU is better across the board at full strength. The Nole's probably get the win but there is just too much guessing and not enough confident feeling on my part.

The above back and forth is why this game is a no play for me. If I can't lock in on something solid and when I start over thinking I have to lay off.

I see you are on UCF and I kind of like that play. I lost with them last week but I think they bounce back strong here. Good luck with all you plays.

[jpowderly]

Wal66 Like your plays, going big on both.

[funnyman]

Both Georgia and Florida will roll.

[wal66]

Wal66 Like your plays, going big on both.

Both Georgia and Florida will roll.

Guys, I hope we are all right. My September gambling funds depend on it.

[AdaBarber]

Ada, qualifiers aren't leans. They are merely potential plays the meet minimal requirements. It's the process I use to help eliminate the amount of games I have to cap. Clemson merely qualifies to be capped out.

As far as that game goes though I will be staying away. FSU was in a physical battle with Oklahoma but the Nole's are beast. I'm concerned about Manuel. If he is healthy they have a shot, if he isn't and they are forced to play Tricket I am concerned even after the decent showing he had against the Sooner's.

Even if I knew Mauel was 100% I'm not sure I would have a play in this game though. Clemson is tough at home and if I remember correctly FSU has lost 4 straight there. On the flip though I tend to think FSU is better across the board at full strength. The Nole's probably get the win but there is just too much guessing and not enough confident feeling on my part.

The above back and forth is why this game is a no play for me. If I can't lock in on something solid and when I start over thinking I have to lay off.

I see you are on UCF and I kind of like that play. I lost with them last week but I think they bounce back strong here. Good luck with all you plays.

Thanks for the input. I see now why Clemson is favored. I found out about all the injuries after the fact. I might just go the other way just to nullify that game instead of risking a loss and a loss of funds.

Happy Pickings!

[wal66]

I am only playing the 2 games this week. I did a very dumb thing and tied up basically everything in the Florida and Georgia games.

If I were playing more games they would be…………………

FSU +125:
Probably a sucker play or maybe just plain stupid. Most likely Manuel will not play which means a true freshman will get the start on the road in what is still considered hostile territory at Clemson. In this series the road team hasn’t not had a great time of it winning only once in the previous 8. FSU has lost 4 straight in Death Valley and enter this game banged and battered after a truly physical battle with Oklahoma last week.
Clemson was able to get on a roll against Auburn last week and Auburn had no answer. Part of that is compliments of Auburn not having a very good defense and part of it had to be some motivation for the 14 point lead that ended up being a loss to Auburn last year.
I hate backing a freshman, especially on the road but my gut is telling me FSU wins this game outright and they do it running the ball and playing aggressive defense.

East Carolina 13:
No real analysis or really much of a valid opinion other than I think ECU while not a great team can put up some serious points. I must contend that that their defense is not very good but at home and against a seemingly down UAB team I would be willing to take a shot here.

Virginia -3:
Here again I really have nothing to offer. My program suggested this as a play and it’s a game I would have never even considered so naturally I would play it. Kind of like caring so little about a penny that you toss them in fountains but when you find one on the street you still pick them up. Virginia’s my penny this week.

Arkansas +11.5:
More of a instinct play than anything else. This isn’t a program play since it didn’t qualify either for or against but I think Arkansas can provide a solid test for Alabama this week. They are catching them in a good spot since Alabama has Florida next week as well. I don’t see Arkansas winning this game, although it’s not out of the question by any means. I more or less think it’s a 10 point game or less so if I were laying money I would be taking the points.

[wal66]

I was waiting for these games to finally be posted with lines. These are the scratch your head games that fly way under the radar. These are STRICTLY program plays because to be honest, I would never give them a thought without the program pointing them out.

I’m not trying to sell anyone on these. It’s basically for me to track the performance. May be worth a couple dollars on a couple though.


UMass +11 @ Boston College (rates as an outright winner but no ML available)

South Alabama +8 @ Kent (rates as an outright winner but no ML available)

Sam Houston St -6 @ New Mexico

[Semper Fidelis]

Hello there Wal, been taking a look at some of your picks. Just to let you know, I'm a student at UGA and love playing SEC games. I love the -9.5 and will probably pound it, but you should know that we didn't play them last year--we haven't played them since 2007, and while we did indeed win 45-17, these two are completely different teams now. We should still win by at least 14 points though, so your pick is very safe. Thinking about throwing that game in several teasers, as it can be bought to a field goal or less. As for your Florida pick, that one is relatively safe as well, though I don't like it as much as the Georgia pick. Don't worry though man, Florida has owned them--haven't lost to them in 24 years. I'll start checking your thread more often to see what you have on tap. Good luck with everything man.

[pavyracer]

Good luck Wal. I'm on Georgia and ECU. Riding them hard like a horny cougar.

[HoldEmHook!!]

Wal, as I peer through my crimson colored glasses I see Bama winning 34-13. Maybe worse 41 or so. I feel deep in my soul this is going to be a statement game for Bama. Thus far the defense has shown no stunts on the line and very few blitzes. The offensive line has just blocked straight ahead except for 4 plays (3 of which gained 20 yards or more) and on those plays the guards and center actually pulled. I very well could be wrong but I believe 100% that I am all over this outcome....who know's....Maybe I am just hammered on the KOOL-AID........BOL to you my friend

[funnyman]

Like your write-ups and reasoning.Am all over Georgia and Florida. Good luck.

[wal66]

Holdem, to be very honest with you if I didn't have everything tied up in Florida and Georgia and was actually betting these other games I probably would lay off the Arkansas/Alabama game. There are better options listed here than that one.

I convinced myself that this would be a 27-21 type game with Alabama winning it but there was this other thing in the back of my mind that Arkansas winning outright wasn't out of the question. Obviously an argument for an Alabama domination could be made as well so with so much unknown and as of yet untested I probably would have pulled out and played safe.

No dog in this fight just pride of picking basically so I'm not rooting against you. I just hope it's a physical battle since the Tide come to the Swamp next week. Actually I hope Alabama wins cause it helps the Gators if we get that upset next week anyways.

[Semper Fidelis]

Hey Holdem, I see that you are a Bama fan, and I have a question for you--how often do you bet on your team? Actually this applies to everyone on this forum--do you bet on your favorite teams? I know some people that don't bet for or against their teams because they're superstitious or whatever. I go to UGA, and I must say I had some bad luck last year--my Dawgs seemed to lose all the games I bet on, and win the ones I laid off. I want to think it's just because we had a horrible season,that it had nothing to do with me betting their games. Just wanted to see what you all had to say. Of course, being in the SEC, I like to think I have more expertise in our conference than the other games, and I must say that I would be cautious about betting on that Bama game. I don't believe Arkansas will win by any means, but I know they are pretty pissed about last year, when they pretty much had the game won and gave it up to you guys in the 4th quarter. It could very well be a blowout, as the Tide will definitely roll, but I have a feeling it will be closer than you may think. If I play that game at all it will either be on the moneyline or in a teaser with points bought for Bama. Like Wal said, there are other games with much better value this weekend. Hope this helps, and I look forward to discussing games with you guys.

[wal66]

I can't speak for anyone but myself but as a Gator I try to avoid betting on them as a favorite which often means I rarely wager on them without very good reason. Same goes with other sports I follow as a fan also. Of all my teams I probably bet on Tampa Bay Bucs and Rays the most but only because they are good dogs. I tend to stay away from The Dallas Cowboys, Orlando Magic and Atlanta Braves.

Obviously I am heavy on Florida this week but this is more of a bet against Kentucky more than anything.

[wal66]

Well the 2 games I listed as plays were fairly easy winners. Those 7 opinion plays though were 0-6-1. Obviously my opinion sucks.

[wal66]

Week #5 adjusted lines:

South Florida -10
Pittsburgh

Houston -13.5
UTEP

Utah St
BYU -13

Texas A&M
Arkansas EVEN

Oregon St
Arizona St -24

Alabama -7.5
Florida

Auburn
South Carolina -9

Air Force
Navy -7

Mississippi St
Georgia -7

Penn St -21
Indiana

Minnesota
Michigan -30

Rutgers -3.5
Syracuse

Northwestern
Illinois -18.5

Texas Tech -10.5
Kansas

Kentucky
LSU -30

Buffalo
Tennessee -25.5

Wake Forest -3.5
Boston College

Cincinnati -20
Miami Ohio

Ball St
Oklahoma -28

Clemson
Virginia Tech -6.5

Washington
Utah -7.5

North Texas
Tulsa -20

Florida Atlantic
UL Lafayette -14

Memphis
Middle Tenn St -9

Texas -7.5
Iowa St

Duke
Florida International -4.5

UAB
Troy -20

Hawaii -2.5
LA Tech

Rice
Southern Miss -7

North Carolina -11.5
East Carolina

Nebraska
Wisconsin -2.5

Notre Dame -14.5
Purdue

New Mexico St -4
New Mexico

Ol’ Miss
Fresno St -3.5

UCLA
Stanford -21.5

Akron
Eastern Michigan -10

Kent
Ohio U -13

Bethune Cookman
Miami -31

Nevada
Boise St -21.5

Georgia Tech -14.5
NC State

Michigan St
Ohio St -3

Idaho
Virginia -10.5

Baylor -1.5
Kansas St

Northern Illinois -7.5
Central Michigan

Bowling Green
West Virginia -18

Towson
Maryland -17.5

Marshall
Louisville -7.5

Arizona
USC -10.5

Washington St -2.5
Colorado

Western Kentucky
UConn -3.5

SMU
TCU -15.5

San Jose St
Colorado St -3.5

Arkansas St -18
Western Kentucky

[wal66]

Not waiting for line movement or even taking time for further research and a write-up. On this one early.

Alabama -5 (-110)

Pains my heart but agrees with my head.

[wal66]

These are qualifiers. As of yet they aren’t plays except for Alabama. I will narrow down the list and post the actual plays with write-ups later.

South Florida -2.5 @ Pittsburgh
Rutgers +3 (ML) @ Syracuse
Northwestern @ Illinois -7
Idaho +17.5 @ Virginia
Alabama -4.5/5 @ Florida
Arkansas St -10.5 @ Western Kentucky
Florida Atlantic @ UL Lafayette -9
Hawaii +3.5 (ML) @ LA Tech
Rice +16 @ Southern Miss
Oregon St @ Arizona St -17

[HoldEmHook!!]

Hey Holdem, I see that you are a Bama fan, and I have a question for you--how often do you bet on your team? Actually this applies to everyone on this forum--do you bet on your favorite teams? I know some people that don't bet for or against their teams because they're superstitious or whatever. I go to UGA, and I must say I had some bad luck last year--my Dawgs seemed to lose all the games I bet on, and win the ones I laid off. I want to think it's just because we had a horrible season,that it had nothing to do with me betting their games. Just wanted to see what you all had to say. Of course, being in the SEC, I like to think I have more expertise in our conference than the other games, and I must say that I would be cautious about betting on that Bama game. I don't believe Arkansas will win by any means, but I know they are pretty pissed about last year, when they pretty much had the game won and gave it up to you guys in the 4th quarter. It could very well be a blowout, as the Tide will definitely roll, but I have a feeling it will be closer than you may think. If I play that game at all it will either be on the moneyline or in a teaser with points bought for Bama. Like Wal said, there are other games with much better value this weekend. Hope this helps, and I look forward to discussing games with you guys.

I will always consider Bama as a play because I feel I have the most knowledge of this team. I dont always bet on a team I have a personal interest in, I like everyone else try to bet on games I feel will be a winner. I try to cap all games the same but like Wal66 I sometimes fall for the "gut" play. This year I am realy concentrating on playing just the best plays possible.

[HoldEmHook!!]

Wal, as I peer through my crimson colored glasses I see Bama winning 34-13. Maybe worse 41 or so. I feel deep in my soul this is going to be a statement game for Bama. Thus far the defense has shown no stunts on the line and very few blitzes. The offensive line has just blocked straight ahead except for 4 plays (3 of which gained 20 yards or more) and on those plays the guards and center actually pulled. I very well could be wrong but I believe 100% that I am all over this outcome....who know's....Maybe I am just hammered on the KOOL-AID........BOL to you my friend

Hey old friend, I wish I was this right all the time.(then I could afford golf lessons ). Sorry our hearts are on opposite sides this week, I hope you win all your bets this week, certainly love your first on.

[wal66]

Alabama at Florida

As I am writing this I am watching the line drop in this contest. It opened at 4.5 and 5 at most places and any that opened at 5 pretty quickly went to 4.5. Now I am seeing the line at 3.5 in a bunch of places. I imagine this latest movement has something to do with the game being moved from 3:30 to 8:00. I can only speculate but I imagine many well informed people already knew this would happen. I also know that while The Swamp is always a good home field advantage it is even more so at night, much like playing at LSU but not quite.

I have read plenty about why Florida is the play, everything from the opening line was such that it practically begged for Alabama action to Alabama is overrated and Florida is grossly underrated.

Florida is vastly improved both on the field of play, on the sidelines and most importantly in the minds of the players. You can see how much this team is buying into the style of coaching and the surge of energy of Muschamp and staff.

I honestly see the improvement and even though I picked South Carolina to win the East I now think Florida has a much better chance than I originally thought of taking that. However winning the East and winning this game isn’t the same thing.

In my eyes, and sorry but that is the best I can offer Florida doesn't match up as well with Alabama. Brantley is better yes, but he still appears a little whacky at times, especially when he feels pressured. Demp's and Rainey are phenomenal and have speed to burn but they aren't bruising type backs, in fact Florida doesn't have a bruiser coming out of the backfield. Also Florida doesn't have a serious go to type receiver. They have plenty of guys to throw to but none that poses a serious threat. This, even more than a punishing runner is a problem. Florida has to back Alabama off and force them to respect the pass, otherwise the Tide will load the box to stop the run.

Alabama has a freshman quarterback under center and while that is cause for concern especially in as hostile an environment as Florida he did withstand that pressure last week Arkansas. Granted it will be a different atmosphere in the Swamp. Wanna talk about bruising type runners then let's talk about Trent Richardson and Eddie Lacy. Both backs run north and south and run hard. The Tide also has a receiver that will force Florida to respect in Marquis Maze. Simply throwing the names out there mean nothing if you haven't seen these guys perform. They are all serious next level players and will force Florida to focus on stopping one aspect of the game but still respect the other.

On defense both these teams have fast and physical players all over the field. I have been seriously impressed with Florida's improvement here the most but even with all that we are still sketchy in the secondary. I do believe Florida can play physical against the run but I'm not sure we can shut down the receivers in man coverage.

This game has potential to be a major showcase bonanza that even SEC haters will not be able to not watch with complete amazement. I do think there is a chance that Florida can win this game but it will take a near perfect performance and honestly some plays and schemes that we haven't seen yet. Weiss is capable of calling that type of game and Florida has the players to perform at that level but I'm not convinced Florida is quite ready just yet.

I think it will be a relatively low scoring game and I have Alabama winning between 7-10 points. I got the game early and already have lost value but I stand by what I have.


Play: Alabama -5

[wal66]

Rutgers at Syracuse

Syracuse benefitted from a bad call and an even worse replay that upheld the bad call in order to get the win last Saturday against Toledo. Take that out of the equation though and I would have to admit that I was impressed that the Orangemen were able to be in that game enough to even have it come down to something that close. I honestly though Toledo’s offense would be too much for them.


You will get different opinions from different people but in my mind the homefield standard is around 3 points. Granted some teams have more of an edge at home than others and probably even some have very little. Even though I have never been there I would imagine that the environment for Syracuse at home can be a decent advantage from a purely noise standpoint. So even if you give them the benefit of the doubt and award them a full 3 points that basically says this game is a coinflip on just winning the game.


We have to pick our spots and I might be picking a bad one here but I like Rutgers on the road. I like them straight up and general rule of thumb for me is to play the moneyline anytime I like the dog at less than 3 points.

If it moves back to or over 3 then we’ll know early I am probably wrong here.

Rutgers ML +125

[wal66]

Rice at Southern Miss

There are a few teams I never win with. I can bet on them or against them and it makes no difference. Southern Miss happens to be one of those teams. I never seem to be on the right side of their games. I guess I should just give up even trying but I have this stubborn streak.

I can’t tell you I know anything about either team this year as I haven’t even seen video highlights of them. I do know that I have value according to my program and even though it’s off to a lousy start and keeps forcing me to play bad teams on the road ( it’s force is strong, I am a slave to it’s power ) I guess I will give it another chance to save some grace.

You have to choose which streak continues, Rice continues to cover against Southern Miss and play close games or I continue to stay on the wrong side of Southern Miss games.

Rice +15

[broadway6]

good luck wal I like your style

[wal66]

Baylor at Kansas St


Ok to begin with I might be just a little wowed here. I watched Baylor against TCU earlier this season and I was just stunned by a couple of things. First Robert Griffin is one seriously dynamic weapon. The guy can run and even more impressive is the ability and accuracy of the grows. Secondly and what may have impressed me more than a single player was the desire of this team to perform and not quit
.
I like that in a team and as someone who has coached various sports I can tell you that there is a HUGE advantage to coaching players that have heart and determination.

There is a chance that Kansas St could suffer from a let down after beating Miami last week although I'm not basing my play on that being a factor. I like Baylor to simply out perform K-State, win the game and cover.

While I will play Baylor minus the points that's not the play here. Even more than the side I like the total here which says a lot since I try to avoid TOTALS. While Baylor does score in bunches they tend to allow points as well. K-State has the ability to keep putting points up against any team not super stout against the run. I like

Baylor to score in the mid 40's and Kansas St low to mid 30's.

Play: Baylor/Kansas St OVER 63.5

[CBASS]

Good luck this weekend Wal!

[wal66]

3-1 this week.

[wal66]

These are the qualifiers for Week #6. They are not plays merely the games that initially qualify to potentially become plays. The lines are from 5-Dimes Sunday evening.



Western Kentucky +9 @ Middle Tennessee St
California +24 @ Oregon
Kansas +32.5 @ Oklahoma St
Arizona -2 @ Oregon St
Boston College @ Clemson -21.5
Iowa St +16 @ Baylor
Mississippi St -17 @ UAB
Missouri @ Kansas St +3
Miami @ Virginia Tech -7.5
Michigan -4 @ Northwestern
Arkansas St -3 @ UL Monroe
Wyoming +9.5 (ML) @ Utah St
Syracuse -10 @ Tulane

[broadway6]

3-1 this week.

its a money making win %

[wal66]

Week 6 Game 1

Arizona St at Utah

This is Utah’s maiden voyage in the Pac 12 and they will eventually fare well in this conference I believe. I don’t think it will be so much this year but we’ll see.

Arizona St will never be confused with a national contender but for that conference at this time they are not a bad team.

I could try and write something here to sell you but that’s not my intent or purpose for that matter. I will tell you that I like the fact that I have 2 teams with a common opponent in USC. ASU beat them 43-22 at home and Utah lost to them 23-14 on the road. I do like that in a conference not known for defense, Arizona St has a pedestrian enough defense to make me think they have a slight edge. I also like the fact that I capped this game out with teams at full strength on initial capping with ASU becoming a play and when you factor in that Utah’s starting QB Jordan Wynn is in all likelihood out with a shoulder injury it makes it that much better.

I think some places may have taken this game off the board waiting for confirmation but I got it earlier. For the record though I like it through 7.

Play: Arizona St -3.5