Wal's 2011 College Football Thread

[AdaBarber]

I like your Stanford, W. Michigan, and South Carolina picks. Too easy for Stanford. I watched the W. Michigan game and they were there if they didn't have the turnovers in the red zone. Michigan just isn't good on defense and the offense is suspect. I actually took Air Force +2 early in the week. They are now favored by 1.5. I also took W. Kentucky last week. Kentucky is not ready. I am a Carolina homer because that is my alma mater. They do it all the time. I had a few joints in the streets with coworkers and I gave up 20. I told them I would either win by 1 or lose by 1. I lost by 1. I think SC is better than Boise when they are on their game and they stay steady at QB. I think they are too much for Richt and he is now on the verge of being fired. Too much pressure.

My other picks are:

Notre Dame -4
Cincinnati +7
Temple -15
San Jose State +21

What do you think?

[TheBetBuysDanK]

BOL this week, wal. your thread is always great food for thought. BIG weekend!

[wal66]

I like your Stanford, W. Michigan, and South Carolina picks. Too easy for Stanford. I watched the W. Michigan game and they were there if they didn't have the turnovers in the red zone. Michigan just isn't good on defense and the offense is suspect. I actually took Air Force +2 early in the week. They are now favored by 1.5. I also took W. Kentucky last week. Kentucky is not ready. I am a Carolina homer because that is my alma mater. They do it all the time. I had a few joints in the streets with coworkers and I gave up 20. I told them I would either win by 1 or lose by 1. I lost by 1. I think SC is better than Boise when they are on their game and they stay steady at QB. I think they are too much for Richt and he is now on the verge of being fired. Too much pressure.

My other picks are:

Notre Dame -4
Cincinnati +7
Temple -15
San Jose State +21

What do you think?

I lean Michigan but only cause I actually think they might have a slight defensive edge. I was considering playing the game but there just wasn't enough of an advantage to make it play worthy. I really dislike Notre Dame for reasons I don't even understand so I try to avoid using them as plays either for or against because bias always plays a role.

There seems to be a very valid argument for Cincinnati. Most of those arguments are because of Zack Collaras and the speed of Cincy and while those are worthy reasons there is a deeper reason to consider them. Tennessee has Florida next week and if you don't think they aren't already looking ahead just a little bit then you don't know what that game means to the Vol's. I don't have a play on it but it is definitely play worthy.

Temple I actually like a lot and even using them as a play but 6 was enough.

No opinion one way or the other on San Jose St.


Good luck with all your plays.

[wal66]

BOL this week, wal. your thread is always great food for thought. BIG weekend!

I appreciate that Dank. I hope there are more than a few winners here for those who look.

[AdaBarber]

I lean Michigan but only cause I actually think they might have a slight defensive edge. I was considering playing the game but there just wasn't enough of an advantage to make it play worthy. I really dislike Notre Dame for reasons I don't even understand so I try to avoid using them as plays either for or against because bias always plays a role.

There seems to be a very valid argument for Cincinnati. Most of those arguments are because of Zack Collaras and the speed of Cincy and while those are worthy reasons there is a deeper reason to consider them. Tennessee has Florida next week and if you don't think they aren't already looking ahead just a little bit then you don't know what that game means to the Vol's. I don't have a play on it but it is definitely play worthy.

Temple I actually like a lot and even using them as a play but 6 was enough.

No opinion one way or the other on San Jose St.


Good luck with all your plays.

Have a great day Wal. And thanks!

[funnyman]

Like all your picks. Good luck today.

[wal66]

Central Michigan +12.5 LOSER
Stanford -21 WINNER
TCU -2/5 WINNER
California -6/5 LOSER
South Carolina -2.5 WINNER
Vanderbilt +1 WINNER

Complete grind.

Week #1 3-2
Week #2 4-2

[iwantcougars]

with you on tcu, i was on colorado, was very scare to play south ca

[wal66]

Week 3 College Football

This weeks adjusted lines.


LSU -17
Mississippi St

Iowa St
UConn EVEN

Boise St -17.5
Toledo

West Virginia -6
Maryland

Eastern Michigan
Michigan -26

Wyoming
Bowling Green -4.5

Penn St -4
Temple

Auburn -6
Clemson

Pittsburgh -1.5
Iowa

SE Missouri St
Purdue -24

Central Michigan -4
Western Michigan

Ol’ Miss -1
Vanderbilt

Kansas
Georgia Tech -5

Duke
Boston College -7.5

Coastal Carolina
Georgia -23

Colorado St
Colorado EVEN

UL Monroe
TCU -28

Texas -13.5
UCLA

Michigan St -5.5
Notre Dame

Virginia
North Carolina -5

Texas Tech -25
New Mexico

Northwestern -15.5
Army

South Carolina St
Indiana -5

Miami Ohio
Minnesota EVEN

Tennessee
Florida -5.5

Northern Illinois
Wisconsin -14.5

Washington
Nebraska -8

Missouri St
Oregon -41

Akron
Cincinnati -25

Nevada -16.5
San Jose St

Arkansas St
Virginia Tech -27

Central Florida -7.5
Florida International

Navy
South Carolina -6.5

Washington St
San Diego St EVEN

Indiana St
Western Kentucky -9.5

Idaho
Texas A&M -21

Arizona St -1
Illinois

Houston -10.5
LA Tech

Kent St
Kansas St -19

Buffalo
Ball St -7.5

Louisville
Kentucky -9

Marshall
Ohio U -5

Troy
Arkansas -18

Northern Texas
Alabama -45

Ohio St -12.5
Miami

Syracuse
USC -13.5

Oklahoma -7
FSU

Tulane
UAB -6.5

UTEP
New Mexico St EVEN

Utah
BYU -1.5

Stanford -8
Arizona

Hawaii -14
UNLV

Oklahoma St -10.5
Tulsa

[wal66]

Week 3 Plays

LSU -3
Iowa St +4.5
Auburn +4
Central Michigan +6.5
Texas -3.5
Texas Tech -19
Central Florida -4
Houston -7.5
Ball St -4.5
Oklahoma -3

[wal66]

LSU -3: Game opened at -3 and is now -3.5.

I’m not a huge LSU fan but there is no denying that this team plays great defense and somehow always seems to have “those” breaks go their way. This, like all the games is a straight program play but I probably would have been tempted to play this one anyways after actually seeing Mississippi St play Auburn this past Saturday.
I expected more from Mississippi St’s defense than was on display against Auburn. They are not as strong against the run as I originally thought and they still have some issues in the secondary. While they are improved on the offensive side of the ball they still rely very heavily on the run and that plays into the strength of LSU’s defense.
I lean to this being a low scoring game as both teams LOVE to run the ball and even think it may be a key turnover or 2 that will make the difference. My program has this game not even being close but personally I’m glad 3 was available early cause the hook actually could come into play.

Iowa St +4.5.

I know nothing about Iowa St except they beat Iowa this past Saturday in a game I leaned to Iowa in. I don’t know if it’s just because it was a Rivalry game that they were able to step their game up or if Iowa isn’t really all that good or if perhaps Iowa St is a very good team, this is straight program following.
I do know that I watched much of the 2nd half of the UConn/Vanderbilt game and even had a play on Vandy and I wasn’t impressed with UConn on offense or really even on defense. Vandy doesn’t have a stellar offense yet they were able to move the ball somewhat easily on UConn several times.
Always have to be concerned about a letdown spot after a huge win as with Iowa St and a motivational spot after a tough loss as with UConn but hopefully it is a 3 point game either way and the program looks good. Actually the program suggests Iowa St as an outright winner but still taking the points.

Auburn +4: Game opened at +4 and now +3.5.

Wow, friggin Auburn. They get a miracle win in a game they were figured to cruise in against Utah St and then they outplay a Mississippi St team that many (myself included) would just manhandle them.
This is a scary game to me. Auburn’s wins were at home and this will be their first road game against a team they have generally played close but beaten the last 3 times they have played.
Clemson looked less than spectacular against Wofford last week but much of that could be because they took Wofford for granted and they had their eye looking ahead to this coming week.
Can Auburn keep finding a way to win and throwing “we don’t only win cause of Cam Newton” in the naysayers faces or will Clemson be the first to stop this Auburn train? I don’t know nor do I care, just it keep it to within 3 and I’ll be a happy camper.

Central Michigan +6.5: Game opened at +6.5 and now at +7.

This is the only game so far where the line has moved against me. I never like to see that happen but it’s gonna happen from time to time. My program isn’t really any better than 50% over the long haul but it does bring to light games to key on.
I watched Central Michigan against Kentucky and I had a play on them as well. They looked exactly like I thought they would look to open the game and really the entire first half but they did absolutely nothing in the second half. I didn’t see or hear of a key injury and attribute not only losing the game but not covering to Kentucky making better adjustments and some SEC pride.
I’ve played this game 4 years in a row and I have been on the wrong side every time.

Texas -3.5

I don’t like that I am playing this game. Texas is not that good of a team and UCLA is horrible. The program likes Texas a lot so I am kind of just blindly following. I guess if I was forced to try and find an angle aside from just how bad UCLA is it would be a revenge spot for Texas as UCLA beat them last year 34-12 at Texas.

Texas Tech -19: Game opened at -19 and now -20.

Texas Tech good not great but New Mexico St REALLY bad.

Central Florida -4

Who would ever have thought that this could be a truly great game? Personally I am looking forward to this contest because both are very good teams and along with South Florida are really dipping into the talent pool in the state of Florida which in a few years will start to show for schools like Florida and FSU.
I love what FIU did at Louisville but to be very frank about it, Louisville is a not so good team. Take nothing away from Florida International they went on the road and won as double digit dog but Central Florida is a much better squad than the Cardinals.
Not out of the realm of possibilities for FIU to keep it under the number or even pull off another great upset but I don’t think it that likely. Central Florida is loaded with talent and are more seasoned. I think Central Florida wins this by 10 or more but it won’t mean that FIU isn’t still a very impressive up and coming team.

Houston -7.5

No need to try and give any reasoning here. I think Houston is the better team but I really know nothing about either squad so this is a straight program follow.

Ball St -4.5

Same as the Houston game, straight program follow.

Oklahoma -3: Game opened at -3 and now at -3.5

This could be a great game or it could get ugly like last year’s 47-17 drubbing by the Sooners. Florida St is LOADED with speed and athletes. They definitely have a revenge factor to be motivated by and they are carrying the burden of being one of the handful of teams to be in the National Championship race, so too is Oklahoma naturally.
For me this breaks down to discipline. FSU, while vastly improved is still very susceptible to those silly mistakes that plagues teams with aggressive athletic types. Their motor is always turning but sometimes the brain isn’t keeping up. False starts, holding, late hits, these things kill momentum, stall drives and create situations where the opponent capitalizes.
I don’t like the hook that has quickly been added to this game but even at the -3 it could still end up being a push. I probably should have stayed away from this game all together but really wanted to have 10 games on the card this week.



Since this is the first week using the program I am still keeping all bets to a minimum.

[Blackroc78]

Liking the LSU at -3 big time! LSU covers this one.

[miketp223]

With you on UCF-4. Both teams I bet on to win their conferences but I got to take UCF with a strong defense and multi-dimensional quarterback. All they have to do is defend T.Y. Hilton!

[Sunde91]

Auburn and ISU are perfect fade spots and you make more points to bet against them than on them

[parlayin]

Wal, can you explain what this week's adjusted lines are based on? In separate posts, you said that Week 1 adjusted lines were straight from "Sargin's" (which I take to mean Sagarin ratings) and later said Weeks 1 and 2 were based on what you thought you knew about the sport. You said your system would begin generating plays for Week 3 but your write-ups seem like your personal handicapping rather than a system that spits out plays/lines. Just wanted to confirm where the Week 3 adjusted lines are coming from. Thanks!

[wal66]

Wal, can you explain what this week's adjusted lines are based on? In separate posts, you said that Week 1 adjusted lines were straight from "Sargin's" (which I take to mean Sagarin ratings) and later said Weeks 1 and 2 were based on what you thought you knew about the sport. You said your system would begin generating plays for Week 3 but your write-ups seem like your personal handicapping rather than a system that spits out plays/lines. Just wanted to confirm where the Week 3 adjusted lines are coming from. Thanks!

I start out with Sargin Rating and then add some other power rankings to the mix and then I factor in a little home brew in order to come up with a projected line. Once the actual lines are released I compare my lines to the actual lines and if a game meets a specified criteria it becomes a qualifier.

After I have games that qualify I eliminate some right off the top and then cap what I have left. If my capping of games supports my program projections then it becomes a play. Usually there will be a game or 2 that I strictly follow the program on because much of my capping is based on what I have been able to watch in replays and highlights or actually being able to watch the game.

I call this a program because I don't really know what else to call it. It's not perfect and in fact if you strictly follow every potential qualifier it comes out to about 50%. What it does do is eliminate games and allows me to concentrate on others. The biggest thing it does is psychologically allow me to think I have an edge.

My entire life I was a losing player. Since I developed this program I have hit 63%, 60% and last year struggled early on to muddle in at 54% for the season. It's not a perfect system and you'll never see me overly confident about any of my plays. I just do what works for me and try to post something others may be able to use either to support or reject some of their own.

[AdaBarber]

Hey Wal I like what I see. These games I already took and they are looking good. I use a set of computer rankings and predictions. Then I look at the line movement and see if they are following suit. Then I focus on those games.

Toledo +17.5 line moved up to 20 and I should have known this but I still think 17.5 is enough.
Temple +9.5
Illinois +1.5
Nevada -6.5
Colorado -7.5
UL Monroe +? Haven't taken yet because I figure the line will go up some more from 29.5

[parlayin]

I start out with Sargin Rating and then add some other power rankings to the mix and then I factor in a little home brew in order to come up with a projected line. Once the actual lines are released I compare my lines to the actual lines and if a game meets a specified criteria it becomes a qualifier.

After I have games that qualify I eliminate some right off the top and then cap what I have left. If my capping of games supports my program projections then it becomes a play. Usually there will be a game or 2 that I strictly follow the program on because much of my capping is based on what I have been able to watch in replays and highlights or actually being able to watch the game.

I call this a program because I don't really know what else to call it. It's not perfect and in fact if you strictly follow every potential qualifier it comes out to about 50%. What it does do is eliminate games and allows me to concentrate on others. The biggest thing it does is psychologically allow me to think I have an edge.

My entire life I was a losing player. Since I developed this program I have hit 63%, 60% and last year struggled early on to muddle in at 54% for the season. It's not a perfect system and you'll never see me overly confident about any of my plays. I just do what works for me and try to post something others may be able to use either to support or reject some of their own.

Thanks for taking the time to explain, Wal. Your results speak for themselves. Keep up the great work!

[MartinBlank]

Hey Wal....

I had to stop by and take a look at your card. Solid. I like a lot of those. Good luck this weekend!

[funnyman]

Really like Temple and Ill.

[AdaBarber]

Really like Temple and Ill.

Both of them are on my card!

[GoG1211]

nice job wal. keep it up.

[pavyracer]

Good luck Wal. Already on LSU and Iowa St. Will look into the others late.

[birdmanweezy]

good luck wally

[wal66]

I think I developed an ulcer anticipating this LSU game and watching all the percentages on LSU and hearing about huge money coming in on Miss St.

First win for the program though and that's pretty cool.

[HoldEmHook!!]

Wal, was on LSU as well.....best of luck this weekend....we have other picks the same too.

[wal66]

Holdem, I'm gonna have to sweat out Auburn I fear as well. I'm hoping for at least a 6-4 weekend but tonight's game was a huge part of getting there.

Good luck with all your plays.

[funnyman]

Wishing you a winning weekend.Rest of card looks good.

[wal66]

Thanks FunnyMan.

2-0 to start this card and just need a 4-4 finish to have a profitable week.

[birdmanweezy]

wow dude, we have almost the same exact lines and plays....good luck to us

[wal66]

wow dude, we have almost the same exact lines and plays....good luck to us

BirdMan, we may in fact be the same exact person. Do you want to suffocate in the ass cheeks of CoCo Austin as well?

[pavyracer]

Have Auburn and UCF. Good luck with others.

[birdmanweezy]

BirdMan, we may in fact be the same exact person. Do you want to suffocate in the ass cheeks of CoCo Austin as well?

no not really

[wal66]

LSU -3 WINNER
Iowa St +4.5 WINNER
Auburn +4 LOSER
Central Michigan +6.5 LOSER
Texas -3.5 WINNER
Texas Tech -19 WINNER
Central Florida -4 LOSER
Houston -7.5 LOSER
Ball St -4.5 LOSER
Oklahoma -3 WINNER


I wasn’t greedy and I had reasonable expectation of simply going 6-4 for the first week of using the program, didn’t happen though. I went 5-5 this week and some of the losses weren’t even close while others had warning signs from mid-week on that I was probably in trouble if you watched the line movement.

I can’t say I won’t have another bad week but I’m gonna hold off putting my plays out so early. I’m not good enough to beat the number by anticipating which way the lines are gonna move.

Week #1 (3-2)
Week #2 (4-2)
Week #3 (5-5)

[wal66]

Week 4 Adjusted Lines

NC State -1.5
Cincinnati

Central Florida
BYU -3

North Carolina
Georgia Tech -2

FSU
Clemson -3

South Dakota
Wisconsin -36

LSU -7
West Virginia

Kansas St
Miami -30

UL Monroe
Iowa -21.5

SMU -17.5
Memphis

Eastern Michigan
Penn St -24.5

Central Michigan
Michigan St -14.5

San Diego St
Michigan -7

Toledo
Syracuse -6

Georgia -12
Ol’ Miss

Temple
Maryland -12

UMass -5.5
Boston College

Bowling Green -7.5
Miami Ohio

Ohio U
Rutgers -2

Army
Ball St -3

Portland St
TCU -36

VMI
Akron -10.5

Tennessee St
Air Force -31

South Alabama -6
Kent St

Cal Poly
Northern Illinois -10

Western Michigan
Illinois -14.5

Arkansas
Alabama -13

Virginia Tech -24
Marshall

UCLA -2
Oregon St

Southern Miss
Virginia -8

California -7
Washington

Colorado
Ohio St -17.5

Tulane
Duke -7.5

UAB
East Carolina -22

New Mexico St -2
San Jose St

Middle Tennessee St
Troy -10.5

Fresno St -6.5
Idaho

Sam Houston St -10
New Mexico

UConn -13.5
Buffalo

UL Lafayette
Florida International -13.5

LA Tech
Mississippi St -14.5

Florida -21
Kentucky

Florida Atlantic
Auburn -35

UTEP
South Florida -24

North Dakota St -2
Minnesota

Rice
Baylor -20

Oklahoma St -3
Texas A&M

Indiana -8
North Texas

Vanderbilt
South Carolina -12.5

Nevada -12.5
Wyoming

Tulsa
Boise St -19.5

Colorado St
Utah St -11.5

Missouri
Oklahoma -17.5

Central Arkansas
Arkansas St -17.5

Georgia St
Houston -35

Southern Utah
UNLV -10

Oregon -13.5
Arizona

USC -6.5
Arizona St

UC Davis
Hawaii -15