Wal's 2011 College Football Thread

[wal66]

Week 6 Game 2


Oklahoma vs Texas

That’s right it’s time for the Red River Rivalry.

This game almost slipped past me due to the line. I saw the Oklahoma -9.5 and thought, yeah, that’s about right. Then I looked deeper and thought, hey, not so fast there partner.

I remembered so vividly the game between Oklahoma and FSU earlier this season and what a fantastically brutal affair that was. I also remembered how Texas struggled at home earlier this season against BYU and how unimpressed my memory of Texas was.

If my simple brain was remembering these things I would assume that others might be as well. So now this line made perfect sense and not in the way you might think.

Texas is 4-0 and the winning team in this contest hasn’t won by more than 10 points since 2006 although Texas did win by exactly 10 points in 2008. This is a rivalry game and rivalry games are often upsets or close games.

The line isn’t a trap, I don’t believe in traps. I do believe that Vegas understands public perception and there are times that lines reflect that and I think this line falls into that category. I THINK the masses will ASSUME Oklahoma is THAT good and Texas is THAT bad. Maybe Oklahoma is but I don’t think Texas is and I will gladly take the side I don’t think Vegas thought I would.

Play: Texas +9.5

[Hent2525]

hey

hey wal, if it's not to much trouble can you post all the lines like you do weekly? I use it for my capping and it's been really helpful. if you can thanks, if not well thank you anyways for everything you do.

[wal66]

Week 6 Adjusted Lines:

Western Kentucky
Middle Tennessee St -14.3

California
Oregon -16

Boise St -26
Fresno St

Colorado
Stanford -29

Washington St
UCLA -3

Illinois -20.5
Indiana

Kansas
Oklahoma St -24

Arizona -11.5
Oregon St

Boston College
Clemson -28

Iowa St
Baylor -5.5

Arizona St -3.5
Utah

Texas A&M
Texas Tech -2.5

Oklahoma -3.5
Texas

UConn
West Virginia -15.5

Minnesota
Purdue -12.5

Kentucky
South Carolina -17.5

Maryland
Georgia Tech -17.5

Mississippi St -24
UAB

FSU -8.5
Wake Forest

Memphis
Rice -15

Army -12
Miami Ohio

Bowling Green
Western Michigan -12

Florida International -17
Akron

Temple -6
Ball St

Eastern Michigan
Toledo -14

Kent St
Northern Illinois -7.5

Ohio U -14
Buffalo

Missouri
Kansas St -3

Miami
Virginia Tech -11

Air Force
Notre Dame -12

Southern Miss
Navy -2.5

Pittsburgh
Rutgers PK

Iowa
Penn St -4.5

Central Michigan
NC State -8.5

UNLV
Nevada -17.5

LA Tech -1.5
Idaho

Michigan -24
Northwestern

East Carolina
Houston -14.5

Georgia
Tennessee PK

Marshall
Central Florida -6

Troy
UL Lafayette PK

Vanderbilt
Alabama -31

Arkansas St -7.5
UL Monroe

Auburn
Arkansas -3.5

Florida Atlantic
North Texas -1.5

Florida
LSU -10.5

Ohio St
Nebraska -9

Wyoming -4
Utah St

Syracuse -17
Tulane

San Jose St
BYU -14.5

TCU -5
San Diego St

[wal66]

Week 6 Plays:

Arizona St -3.5 (now at -4 good to -7)
Texas +9.5 (now +10 good to +7)
Wyoming +11
Auburn/Arkansas OVER 63.5
Florida/LSU UNDER 41

Opinions:

Kentucky +21
FSU -11
Mississippi St -17
Minnesota/Purdue OVER 48

[ram1502]

Week 6 Plays:

Arizona St -3.5 (now at -4 good to -7)
Texas +9.5 (now +10 good to +7)
Wyoming +11
Auburn/Arkansas OVER 63.5
Florida/LSU UNDER 41

Opinions:

Kentucky +21
FSU -11
Mississippi St -17
Minnesota/Purdue OVER 48

No plays on Tx tech? Rutgers? Idaho? Sir?

[Hent2525]

thanks alot dude, tried to give you my points but it wouldn't let me... don't know what that's about. If I have a few more winning weeks i'll paypal you over something worth while.

[wal66]

thanks alot dude, tried to give you my points but it wouldn't let me... don't know what that's about. If I have a few more winning weeks i'll paypal you over something worth while.

Hents, keep your points and absolutely keep your money. I appreciate the offer but we are here to help one another or should be at least. I was just lazy this week and didn't post the adjusted lines. I will keep posting them Sunday nights or Monday's as long as they are of help to someone.

I hope you are using them better than I am this season. I'm winning but not hitting at the rate I had hoped.

[wal66]

1-4 this week and the losses weren't even remotely close.

[Hent2525]

sorry to hear that bud. I really do appreciate you posting the lines.

[wal66]

Week 7 Adjusted Lines:

San Diego St
Air Force -3.5

USC -3.5
California

Hawaii -5.5
San Jose St

Iowa St
Missouri -10

BYU -6.5
Oregon St

Colorado
Washington -17.5

Kansas St -1.5
Texas Tech

Baylor
Texas A&M -6.5

Utah
Pittsburgh PICK

Purdue
Penn St -20.5

Indiana
Wisconsin -40

South Carolina -8.5
Mississippi St

Louisville
Cincinnati -12.5

Michigan -7.5
Michigan St

Buffalo
Temple -17

Navy
Rutgers -10.5

Miami
North Carolina -7

UNLV
Wyoming -8.5

Eastern Michigan
Central Michigan -6

FSU -7
Duke

Rice
Marshall -2.5

Ohio St
Illinois -8.5

Miami Ohio
Kent PICK

Oklahoma St -7.5
Texas

Georgia Tech -14.5
Virginia

Ball St
Ohio U -8

South Florida -7.5
UConn

Western Michigan -7.5
Northern Illinois

Central Florida
SMU -8.5

LSU -19
Tennessee

UTEP -10.5
Tulane

Western Kentucky
Florida Int -17

New Mexico
Nevada -31.5

North texas
UL Lafayette -12.5

Boise St -35
Colorado St

Alabama -33
ol' Miss

Virginia Tech -10
Wake Forest

Clemson -14.5
Maryland

Florida
Auburn PICK

East Carolina -12.5
Memphis

Georgia -9.5
Vanderbilt

Northwestern
Iowa -13

UL Monroe
Troy -12

Stanford -21
Washington St

UAB
Tulsa -33

Idaho
New Mexico St PICK

Oklahoma -34
Kansas

Utah St -1
Fresno St

Arizona St
Oregon -6

[wal66]

I'm in early this week.

Plays:

Virginia Tech -7
Michigan +3
Tulsa -21.5
Clemson -9

[Pin Fish]

no taj at clemson

[Coach Jake]

No Taj!!! I hate bettin on Tech, might as well be Penn state...Take a shot on one of the offenses, Stanford, Ok St, Oregon, or GT....look em up!

[ElCapitan]

Wal, assuming you're using these adjusted lines vs. the posted lines as a starting point for picking games, is there a reason you did not like Georgia Tech? Your line has them at -14.5 and the posted line is at -7.5.

[wal66]

Wal, assuming you're using these adjusted lines vs. the posted lines as a starting point for picking games, is there a reason you did not like Georgia Tech? Your line has them at -14.5 and the posted line is at -7.5.

While it's true I use my program to qualify what usually will become a play it is mere a filter of sorts. If I played program plays as is they have a history of about 50%.

The original formula for my program was pretty good the first 2 seasons and then my computer crashed and like so often is the case I didn't have things backed-up. I recreated it from memory and it has never been exactly right since. I am still missing something I had in the original form.

Sorry, I'm not answering your question. I have no real answer is the reason. The games I listed as plays so far were simply the ones that struck me first. I am still looking into several games further including Georgia Tech, Baylor and Kansas St to name a few that may still be added.

ElCap, an argument could be made that Georgia Tech is a better option than any of the ones already listed. I will be looking deeper into it.

[wal66]

no taj at clemson

Has this been confirmed? I see that he is listed Day to Day on the site I use for injury reports? I mean it's too late cause my bet is in but if this is a definite then I won't be using this game for a write-up at least.

[Hent2525]

thanks wal

[wal66]

I'm in early this week.

Plays:

Virginia Tech -7 WINNER
Michigan +3 LOSER
Tulsa -21.5 LOSER
Clemson -9 WINNER

2-2 and really should have been 1-3. So discouraged with how things are going. I am missing indicators that in the past I recognized. I am laying off games I am confident in. Just making so many mistakes. Everyone likes to say it's a marathon not a sprint but all I have managed to do is circle the block.

[Hent2525]

dude, keep it up. It'll come back to you.

[wal66]

Hent, I didn't post this week's adjusted lines at the other sites. I wasn't gonna post them at all really but here they are for you.


Arkansas St -2
Central Florida -28.5
UCLA -11
Rutgers -1
West Virginia -16.5
Iowa -16.5
Virginia -3.5
Illinois -14
FSU -4
Miami -2
Wake Forest -8
Arkansas -25
Cincinnati -1
Clemson -15
Northern Illinois -9
Virginia Tech -26.5
Texas A&M -19
Western Michigan -8
TCU -37.5
Ball St -5
Tulsa -13
Vanderbilt -12.5
Utah St -2
Temple -16
Ohio U -18
Oklahoma St -14
Oregon -32
Nebraska -32
Utah -6
Boise St -31
Kansas St -21
Oklahoma -21
Washington St -8.5
Navy -7.5
Nevada -11
Houston -19
Penn St -22
Toledo -19.5
Alabama -30
Notre Dame PK
SMU -7.5
Stanford -11.5
LSU -21
Wisconsin -16
UTEP -10
Hawaii -9
UL Lafayette -18.5
Mid Tenn St -9
UL Monroe -3

[BigdaddyQH]

Wal, if you have UCLA at -11, you really are missing something. UCLA should not be -11 to any Pac 12 team. They are going to Arizona, a place where they do not win. They are going up against a team with an "interim" head coach who must win if he want the job on a permanent basis. They are also going against a team with one of the top 3 QB's in a QB rich Pac 12. This should be a PK game.

[wal66]

QH, there are always a few games that are off by a good bit either way. As mentioned many times, I start with a base of Sargins and then go from there with a lil home-brew thrown in.

Sargin's is good but still biased towards certain teams. They still rate Florida relatively high and much higher than they should be.

I automatically throw out games that are too far off in either direction personally but always include every game I run through the program.

QH, what all that means is, I agree with you.

[wal66]

So far I am on................

Wisconsin -7 (got it opening for me)
SMU +133


I will add more as they come.

[Hent2525]

Wall i appreciate it man. I use your numbers in combination with 2 other sets an narrow my games down like that. Don't let it get to you, we all have a few bad weeks. This past week I went 1-4 first losing week of the season (thank fully i'm up alot more so I can do with a losing week, I peg myself at a 60%-65% capper, I'm way above that right now so need to come down to earth). You're a vet and good just go with the waves dude, you'll be alright. BTW while I wish SMU was getting more then 3, the money line is amazing value. On that for 1.5 units. Goodluck this week buddy and again thank you.

[TheBetBuysDanK]

Keep your head up, wal! you're one the best cappers and downright nicest dudes on the board. the Ws will come. keep pluggin'!

I'm with you on Wisc. I too got it at -7 on sunday night. I'm not so sure I would play it past that number.

[Hent2525]

Lines buddy?

[Sunde91]

UCLA -11

[Hent2525]

As a note for wal's tool... I would ignore any game that is off by 9 or more.