Diesel's Public Fade Thread of Dogs 51% or Higher (2nd Season)

[The-Diesel]

Persoanl Plays (Final Card)

5 units
Boston College -4 (-110)
Clemson -14.5 (-105)
Mississippi +2 (-105)
ECU +21 (-107)
Fresno St. +10.5 (-109)
Austin Peay +41.5 (-110)

[The-Diesel]

Late play

10 units
Colorado +7

[figue]

im on this

[dogs1972]

Rough start

[figue]

[The-Diesel]

9/5/11 Total Bomb

Trying to save my season early. GL guys

25 units
Miami/Maryland Under 45.5 (-105)

[funnyman]

Not a good idea to try to get it all back in one play. Chasing is bad for your bankroll.

[Tanko]

Although week 1 did not pan out with this system (bet against public dogs), realize it may take a few weeks before it starts hitting. Why? Its difficult to tell how good teams will be until ~ week 3 or 4 when teams starts playing conference games and/or games against teams that people are more familiar with (e.g. no more Fordham, Tenn Tech, etc...).

With a 60% performance last year over 9 weeks and having only 1 losing week, I think its worth using. Just not quite yet.

[Love The Action]

Wow!!!!! Good luck Diesel

[Tanko]

Looking over some of the 2010 data, if you eliminate the smaller conferences (Sunbelt, WAC, MW, MAC, C-USA), these are the non-automatic bowl bid conferences, and the winning % increases with this system. It will be interesting to see if it has the same impact this year.

Also, the closer the public betting is to 50% the higher the winning % for this system. It seems the more the public betting % is on the dog the worse the winning % for this system. One key point to make is that there may not be enough games from the 2010 system to be statistically applicable.

Diesel any thoughts?

[No coincidences]

Unders just don't hit anymore, unfortunately.

[figue]

[dogs1972]

Unders just don't hit anymore, unfortunately.

Which I great if you play overs.

[The-Diesel]

That's what I get for chasing. Broke the number 1 rule of betting. Worst week of my life. Be playing big next week. This will be the worst year I ever had or the best come back on record. Either which way I'm not giving up.

[BetWeather]

Take a look at home field advantage. Much... more value there.
It is always under-rated.

[Tanko]

Take a look at home field advantage. Much... more value there.
It is always under-rated.

BetWeather, You are correct. From the 2010 regular season data, the win % increase from 60% to ~63% if you include a filter in which you only take home teams with this system. It seems like most of the games selected (54 out of 67) with this system were home field teams. Thanks for pointing that out.

[BetWeather]

BetWeather, You are correct. From the 2010 regular season data, the win % increase from 60% to ~63% if you include a filter in which you only take home teams with this system. It seems like most of the games selected (54 out of 67) with this system were home field teams. Thanks for pointing that out.

Could not be easier.
90% of my bets are on two teams with a low spread.
Then I take the home team.
Works even better on college games.

Many teams will choke on the road. Especially early season.

Example Maryland v Miami

Expect to go 22 or 24 for 30 this weekend.

[BetWeather]

Late play

10 units
Colorado +7

This is the only play of yours I agree with ,

[Tanko]

So, using this system TheDiesel brings up, if you combine the home field team, only pick major (BCS auto-bid) conferences, and use the 40-48% public betting range and you would get to 67% win rate on the 2010 data. The problem is you would only be betting 9 games in 9 weeks. Pretty small data set to make a trend. But I like the idea on the home team selection.

Thanks BetWeather.

[BetWeather]

Tanko - Here are my college picks for friday and Sat.
STRAIGHT BETSep 09CFB [306] LOUISVILLE -4-110
STRAIGHT BETSep 10CFB [334] WASHINGTON U -6½-110
STRAIGHT BETSep 10CFB [338] COLORADO +6½-110
STRAIGHT BETSep 10CFB [346] WAKE FOREST +2-110
STRAIGHT BETSep 10CFB [352] GEORGIA +2½-110
STRAIGHT BETSep 10CFB [370] VANDERBILT -2½-110


All home field advantage.

[figue]

That's what I get for chasing. Broke the number 1 rule of betting. Worst week of my life. Be playing big next week. This will be the worst year I ever had or the best come back on record. Either which way I'm not giving up.

[No coincidences]

That's what I get for chasing. Broke the number 1 rule of betting. Worst week of my life. Be playing big next week. This will be the worst year I ever had or the best come back on record. Either which way I'm not giving up.

Good luck Diesel. I know you'll bounce back -- you're too good of a capper not to.

Nice RLM so far with Rice, Marshall, Air Force and Vandy. Stay tuned.

[Aussiecapper101]

That's what I get for chasing. Broke the number 1 rule of betting. Worst week of my life. Be playing big next week. This will be the worst year I ever had or the best come back on record. Either which way I'm not giving up.

Dude I've never seen u chase like that, be careful out there take a step back and keep your head up, your a good capper as others have mentioned also so in due time u will be rolling again no doubt now back to business

[The-Diesel]

Well guys coming off an awefull week 1. I'll be going out of town this weekend so will be posting my plays Friday afternoon which is a little early for me.


YTD Results
Week 1 = (2-6) (25%) (-49.05 units)
Week 2 = (0-0) (0%) (0.00 units)
Total = (2-6) (25%) (-49.05 units)

[Dtown66]

Looking forward to seeing what you got Diesel......GL.....

[The-Diesel]

Looking forward to seeing what you got Diesel......GL.....

Thanks DTown

[The-Diesel]

9/10/11 Play

Going out of town for the weekend so posting early. GL guys

10 units
Kentucky -10.5 (-101)
S. Florida -20 (-108)
Vanderbilt -2.5 (-105)
USC -8.5 (-108)
Notra Dame -3 (-105)
Michigan St. -32 (-105)
Kent St -8 (-108)

YTD Results
Week 1 = (2-6) (25%) (-49.05 units)
Week 2 = (0-0) (0%) (0.00 units)
Total = (2-6) (25%) (-49.05 units)

[No coincidences]

[figue]

[Inkwell77]

Tanko - Here are my college picks for friday and Sat.
STRAIGHT BETSep 09CFB [306] LOUISVILLE -4-110
STRAIGHT BETSep 10CFB [334] WASHINGTON U -6½-110
STRAIGHT BETSep 10CFB [338] COLORADO +6½-110
STRAIGHT BETSep 10CFB [346] WAKE FOREST +2-110
STRAIGHT BETSep 10CFB [352] GEORGIA +2½-110
STRAIGHT BETSep 10CFB [370] VANDERBILT -2½-110


All home field advantage.

4-2 this weekend, good stuff.

[No coincidences]

9/10/11 Play

Going out of town for the weekend so posting early. GL guys

10 units
Kentucky -10.5 (-101)
S. Florida -20 (-108)
Vanderbilt -2.5 (-105)
USC -8.5 (-108)
Notra Dame -3 (-105)
Michigan St. -32 (-105)
Kent St -8 (-108)

YTD Results
Week 1 = (2-6) (25%) (-49.05 units)
Week 2 = (0-0) (0%) (0.00 units)
Total = (2-6) (25%) (-49.05 units)

Couple of amazing covers.

Good stuff Diesel.

[Aussiecapper101]

USC would have covered but they ran on the field if in correct

[Tanko]

Nice job Diesel.
I see at 5-2 this weekend w/ only ND and Kent St. failing to come through.

[figue]

[The-Diesel]

9/10/11 Play

Going out of town for the weekend so posting early. GL guys

10 units
Kentucky -10.5 (-101)
S. Florida -20 (-108)
Vanderbilt -2.5 (-105)
USC -8.5 (-108)
Notra Dame -3 (-105)
Michigan St. -32 (-105)
Kent St -8 (-108)

YTD Results
Week 1 = (2-6) (25%) (-49.05 units)
Week 2 = (0-0) (0%) (0.00 units)
Total = (2-6) (25%) (-49.05 units)

Had a nice come back this week a terrible start in week 1. Finish week 2 5-2 +28.70 units

YTD Results
Week 1 = (2-6) (25%) (-49.05 units)
Week 2 = (5-2) (71%) (+28.70 units)
Total = (7-8) (46%) (-20.35 units)