Diesel's Public Fade Thread of Dogs 51% or Higher (2nd Season)

[The-Diesel]

Hey guys, this thread was very sucessful last year during the regular season. Here's the link to last year's thread. http://forum.sbrforum.com/college-fo...52-higher.html
I'm trying to devolpe a system to single out good games to bet on. I hope it's going to help along with your own capping skills. It worked nicely in college football last year. I will run this thread thru the entire 2011 regular season and see what it brings us. The system does not work well in the Bowl games. Also found out the RLM pretty much breaks even in college football.

Note a few things.

1. I don't bet all the games the system calls out for just the ones that match up with what I capped.
2. I will post the systems plays and my own personal plays seperate.
3. I will be only using pregame numbers so you will see different percentages from other sites.
4. Due to posting early the percentages and lines may change before gametime. I recommend you wait as close to gametime before betting if you like a play.
5. Bet at your own risk because we all know no system is perfect.

GL this season and let's make some cash. =

[figue]

[figue]

good luck season 2011

[Anthonyd]

Good luck brother

[mafioso]

This is right up my alley, Love it.
Have you also tried going against covers consensus?
For example and this worked very well for me last season, If a favorite of 3.5 to 14 was the biggest Percentage play on covers consensus and the line went from lets say -7 to -6.5 Id play the dog.
I mean why would the line drop if everyone and their mother and sister was betting on the favorite?
I would consider this to be a sharp play, thats the only reason I can think of for the line not reflecting waht the public was backing.

[bornselling]

Note a few things.

[The-Diesel]

[The-Diesel]

good luck season 2011

Thanks figue

[The-Diesel]

This is right up my alley, Love it.
Have you also tried going against covers consensus?
For example and this worked very well for me last season, If a favorite of 3.5 to 14 was the biggest Percentage play on covers consensus and the line went from lets say -7 to -6.5 Id play the dog.
I mean why would the line drop if everyone and their mother and sister was betting on the favorite?
I would consider this to be a sharp play, thats the only reason I can think of for the line not reflecting waht the public was backing.

Thanks mafioso

[figue]

[Aussiecapper101]

Can't wait! Good luck mate

[DSchex]

Followed all season last year. Looking forward to this season...

[rmikeyd]

Welcome back, Diesel! Had a blast following you last year...anxious to see how things work out this season. BOL & Roll Tide!

[figue]

Diesel said me :

Soory team

I'm e-mailing you from work. Hurricane Irene hit me hard. I'm still without power at home and trying to get things worked out. Please let everyone know on my thread.

[figue]

sorry about what happened to Irene my friend

[Aussiecapper101]

Diesel said me : Soory team I'm e-mailing you from work. Hurricane Irene hit me hard. I'm still without power at home and trying to get things worked out. Please let everyone know on my thread.

Thats no good, sorry to hear that, hopefully everything works out for him

[09Gamecock]

Thanks for the update, figue. Glad you got me to the right thread.

[The-Diesel]

[COLOR=#000000 !important]Thanks for the well wishes everyone

Just got power back on yesterday at 5:00pm. I have 5 big trees still down in the yard but luckly none of them hit the house or cars and we are safe. Damn internet is still in and out. Lot of cleaning up to do.

Diesel[/COLOR]

[figue]

[figue]

my friend i m looking this games for tomorrow :

Boston College -3.5 36% USC -24 36% Notre Dame -10.5 40% BYU -2.5 44% California -10 38% Colorado 6.5 34% Purdue -16.5 45%
am i correct ??

[figue]

colorado game rlm

[The-Diesel]

my friend i m looking this games for tomorrow :

Boston College -3.5 36% USC -24 36% Notre Dame -10.5 40% BYU -2.5 44% California -10 38% Colorado 6.5 34% Purdue -16.5 45%
am i correct ??

I don't play RLM in college figue, so Colorado wouldn't be a system play. The rest is correct. Here's a few more that could be a system play. Still early I will post the final plays around 11:30 Saturday morning.

42% Texas Tech
35% Kansas St
44% UCF
8% UTEP
28% S.D. State
42% Arizona

[figue]

I don't play RLM in college figue, so Colorado wouldn't be a system play. The rest is correct. Here's a few more that could be a system play. Still early I will post the final plays around 11:30 Saturday morning.

42% Texas Tech
35% Kansas St
44% UCF
8% UTEP
28% S.D. State
42% Arizona

you are the boss

[The-Diesel]

Opening Saturday Plays 9/3/11

Well guys opening Saturday is here and I'm for one am very excited. Have some system plays but remember no system is perfect and it will having winning days along with losing days. Just compare them with the games you cap and hopefully it will help find that solid play we are looking for. Remember these play withh be posted around 11:15 or 11:30 and the percentages will change after I post the plays. Let's have a great year and GL.

More later

1 unit system plays
40% Boston College -4 (-110) Matches up with a RLM. Personal Play
46% Purdue -14.5 (-110)
27% Iowa -35.5 (-110)

Persoanl Plays

5 units
Boston College -4 (-110)

[No coincidences]

Good to see you back man!

Hope all is well on the homefront.

[angelodebo]

I'm all over BC this morning. Obviously I'm not gonna bet to big because these first couple weeks are very difficult to bet. Either way..I like BC in early action.

I also like Notre Dame because South Florida is getting more action than Notre Dame! Whenever a dog get more action I usually fade them.

good luck guys! Lets go Eagles!

[The-Diesel]

Good to see you back man!

Hope all is well on the homefront.

Everythings going OK. Still have trees to cut up, but just relaxing and watching some football today.

[The-Diesel]

I'm all over BC this morning. Obviously I'm not gonna bet to big because these first couple weeks are very difficult to bet. Either way..I like BC in early action.

I also like Notre Dame because South Florida is getting more action than Notre Dame! Whenever a dog get more action I usually fade them.

good luck guys! Lets go Eagles!

Thanks and hopefully BC will cash for us

[Dtown66]

Just found this thread.....Looks like you or your computer might know a thing or two....Good luck with your picks and getting your homefront back together....will definitely follow you dude....

[Love The Action]

Glad to hear everything is going well on the homefront. Good luck this year Diesel

[The-Diesel]

Just found this thread.....Looks like you or your computer might know a thing or two....Good luck with your picks and getting your homefront back together....will definitely follow you dude....

Thanks Dtown

[The-Diesel]

Glad to hear everything is going well on the homefront. Good luck this year Diesel

Thanks Love The Action

[The-Diesel]

These percentages are moving fast today. Wait as long as you can. I might have got screwed on the B.C. game. I will post the official dog public plays tonight for tracking. Going to track these to the Tee this year.

1 unit system plays
Boston College -4 (-110) Matches up with a RLM. Personal Play
Purdue -14.5 (-110)
Iowa -35.5 (-110)
USC -24
ND -10
BYU -2
S.C. -20.5
NC State -27
Cinny -41.5
UCF -41
UTEP -13.5
Arizona -26

Persoanl Plays

5 units
Boston College -4 (-110)

[The-Diesel]

Persoanl Plays

5 units
Boston College -4 (-110)
Clemson -14.5 (-105)

[figue]