Once again, we have a tough game for the handicapper. Still, team and player propositions are popular and there could be some value in playing certain ones. Good luck all.
Game 11 Insight Bowl Iowa – Missouri 12/28
Iowa went 7-5 as they were not as lucky this year as they were in ’09. All losses were by 7 or less. Missouri lost just twice as the program has clearly moved into a more elevated category. Still, something is missing here. For Iowa, it is institutional control as players continue to get into trouble. For Missouri, the Big 10 “used” them in getting Nebraska, and they still play 3rd fiddle to Oklahoma and Texas in the Big 12. The matchup is decent but the excitement may be lacking.
Iowa Analysis: Iowa’s issues include losing their top RB and co #1 WR to violations. Iowa ran 4.35/149 but now must hope RB Coker (6 games, 5.0 YPC) can step up. If not, the pass attack still may be viable as QB Stanzi hit nearly 65% with a 25-4 ratio! Iowa’s run D was stout as usual with 8-12 at 105 or less. Michigan ran 42-188 but below their average. Ditto Wisky, who ran just 38-150. Ohio St ran 36-158, and only Minny exceeded expectations, but that came after Ohio St closed out Iowa’s bowl hopes and we were heavily against the Hawkeyes. Iowa consistently forces interceptions and got 17 in ’10 despite a huge rise in pass D% from 50+ to 61%. The D is capable of better but Missouri will be a tough test. Iowa had a 20-20 sack ratio, a PK who hit 11-13, and a good kickoff specialist.
Missouri Analysis: Missouri’s point D was solid in ’10. Nebraska scored 31 but mostly the Tigers held tough. The run O jumped to 4.95. 3 RB’s share time and all are interchangeable. Iowa is a tough team to run on but Missouri’s run-pass balance enables them to have some success. They ran 25-78 vs. A&M, 39-178 vs. Oklahoma and 34-142 vs. a sub-standard Nebraska run D. Iowa will make things tough and we project about 4.0 or less here. The Missouri run D was a bit high at 4.3/161. Teams can run on them but Iowa is thin right now at RB. How they do in the ground game will be a key. The Missouri pass O hit 62+%. The QB is accurate but does not throw for as many TD’s as one would think (15) and the scheme is for short completions. Egnew caught 83, but just for an 8.4 average. Moe caught 77 for an 11.6 average. Missouri threw for 30-72-1 in the 2 losses but should cross 60% here even if Iowa stiffens. The question will be if the yards can increase. Missouri’s pass D% was <57 which was an improvement. SD St hit 20-44-1. Oklahoma hit 64%. TT hit 60%. Poor teams were held <50%. Iowa has a solid QB and he should hit over the 57% average and could hit >60%. Missouri’s sack ratio was 38-20. Their PK hit 16-18 and he’s good. Their punter has a great directional leg.
Other stats, trends and game keys: Iowa counters Missouri’s short pass attack with a pass D that keeps plays in front of them. This could mean that Missouri’s patience will be tested if they have to go on long drives. Both teams play good D in the punt return game. It’s hard to use rush data here with the Iowa suspensions and that’s unfortunate with the data use good for these teams. Iowa keys are to win the field position game and force Missouri to go on long drives vs. their D, hope Coker and Stanzi have solid games, and force some turnovers. Missouri keys are to run effectively, put pressure on Stanzi without sacrificing the big play, and avoid offensive interceptions.
SCORE: This continues a series of games where we have little or no solid opinion on who will win the game. Iowa is in turmoil which negates their bowl history edge. Missouri could be the more excited team, and would love to make this an 11 win season. The line opened 1 and in most places is still about 2. That seems low, so we’ll lean their way in perhaps a lower scoring game. Missouri 24-17.
Game 11 Insight Bowl Iowa – Missouri 12/28
Iowa went 7-5 as they were not as lucky this year as they were in ’09. All losses were by 7 or less. Missouri lost just twice as the program has clearly moved into a more elevated category. Still, something is missing here. For Iowa, it is institutional control as players continue to get into trouble. For Missouri, the Big 10 “used” them in getting Nebraska, and they still play 3rd fiddle to Oklahoma and Texas in the Big 12. The matchup is decent but the excitement may be lacking.
Iowa Analysis: Iowa’s issues include losing their top RB and co #1 WR to violations. Iowa ran 4.35/149 but now must hope RB Coker (6 games, 5.0 YPC) can step up. If not, the pass attack still may be viable as QB Stanzi hit nearly 65% with a 25-4 ratio! Iowa’s run D was stout as usual with 8-12 at 105 or less. Michigan ran 42-188 but below their average. Ditto Wisky, who ran just 38-150. Ohio St ran 36-158, and only Minny exceeded expectations, but that came after Ohio St closed out Iowa’s bowl hopes and we were heavily against the Hawkeyes. Iowa consistently forces interceptions and got 17 in ’10 despite a huge rise in pass D% from 50+ to 61%. The D is capable of better but Missouri will be a tough test. Iowa had a 20-20 sack ratio, a PK who hit 11-13, and a good kickoff specialist.
Missouri Analysis: Missouri’s point D was solid in ’10. Nebraska scored 31 but mostly the Tigers held tough. The run O jumped to 4.95. 3 RB’s share time and all are interchangeable. Iowa is a tough team to run on but Missouri’s run-pass balance enables them to have some success. They ran 25-78 vs. A&M, 39-178 vs. Oklahoma and 34-142 vs. a sub-standard Nebraska run D. Iowa will make things tough and we project about 4.0 or less here. The Missouri run D was a bit high at 4.3/161. Teams can run on them but Iowa is thin right now at RB. How they do in the ground game will be a key. The Missouri pass O hit 62+%. The QB is accurate but does not throw for as many TD’s as one would think (15) and the scheme is for short completions. Egnew caught 83, but just for an 8.4 average. Moe caught 77 for an 11.6 average. Missouri threw for 30-72-1 in the 2 losses but should cross 60% here even if Iowa stiffens. The question will be if the yards can increase. Missouri’s pass D% was <57 which was an improvement. SD St hit 20-44-1. Oklahoma hit 64%. TT hit 60%. Poor teams were held <50%. Iowa has a solid QB and he should hit over the 57% average and could hit >60%. Missouri’s sack ratio was 38-20. Their PK hit 16-18 and he’s good. Their punter has a great directional leg.
Other stats, trends and game keys: Iowa counters Missouri’s short pass attack with a pass D that keeps plays in front of them. This could mean that Missouri’s patience will be tested if they have to go on long drives. Both teams play good D in the punt return game. It’s hard to use rush data here with the Iowa suspensions and that’s unfortunate with the data use good for these teams. Iowa keys are to win the field position game and force Missouri to go on long drives vs. their D, hope Coker and Stanzi have solid games, and force some turnovers. Missouri keys are to run effectively, put pressure on Stanzi without sacrificing the big play, and avoid offensive interceptions.
SCORE: This continues a series of games where we have little or no solid opinion on who will win the game. Iowa is in turmoil which negates their bowl history edge. Missouri could be the more excited team, and would love to make this an 11 win season. The line opened 1 and in most places is still about 2. That seems low, so we’ll lean their way in perhaps a lower scoring game. Missouri 24-17.
