These two games today are not in our opinion major handicapping opportunities. Those who bet player and team propositions may find some help. Good luck all!
Game 10 Champs Bowl (Orlando) NC State – West Virginia 12/28
As we expected, NC St had a turnaround year, going 8-4. Still, with the Divisional title on the line they lost to Maryland. WV closed strong after a pair of early setbacks and went 9-3. They were seconds away from a BCS appearance but UConn won their game. WV’s reward, a 12/28 game and their HC put on notice that 2011 would be his last year. Which team can set aside a bit of disappointment?
Game Analysis: NC St made various attempts to run more effectively but only ended up 3.55/126. Greene and Haynes have talent but with the SR QB the run to pass ratio was not good. NC St ran 37-139 vs. UCF and 36-160 vs. Cincy. Even when they did hit 4.0 it was vs. teams that usually allow far greater. WV allowed 3.7+ - 90 per game. LSU and Syracuse ran for about 4.5, near their averages, but UConn, Louisville and Pitt were held way down. We expect NC St to be stopped here. WV disappointed on their run O at 4.0/167. We projected 4.95. Devine was banged up and ran 884-4, with 6 run TD’s. Game by game #’s went pretty much as expected. NC St was projected at 4.6 on their run D but excelled at 3.6/124. VT and FSU broke through but most others went below their usual averages. While WV could surprise us and regroup, the prediction here is just 42-149. On the passing front, QB Wilson hit 58% with a 26-14 ratio. 5 players caught 3 or 4 TD’s so he really spreads it around. 7-12 games were 61% or >, while 5-12 were 51.5% or less. WV’s pass D slipped a bit to 57.5%, which is still fine. WV has not faced that many QB’s like this one, and based on seasonal totals we expect Wilson to hit 60%, but with 1 or 2 interceptions. On offense, WV hit 65+% with a nice TD to interception ratio. Louisville, LSU and Syracuse stopped them, but the other 9 were better. NC St is vulnerable through the air and allowed 61%. WV’s QB won’t throw picks and Sanders, Austin and company have talent. WV will hit 60+ here and maybe much more. NC St scored 27 or > 11 times and had a nice 30+-26 point ratio vs. 9 bowl teams. WV had a 26.5-12.5 point ratio that changed to 20.5-14 vs. 7 bowl teams. WV never allowed more than 21 points in any game!
Other stats, trends and game keys: NC St recovered 16 fumbles, which may or may not be random. They have a 40-34 sack ratio. The PK was 17-22 with 4-4 over 40 yards. The special team unit is susceptible to blocks however. WV allowed just 3 run TD’s! They had a 40-25 sack ratio and will try to put pressure on Wilson since they will likely not respect the NC St run game. Their PK was 10-15, and 2-5 from 40-49 yards. Can WV run on NC St? Can Wilson survive the pass rush of WV and therefore have the super pass %? WV is the slight rush and point pick (if the odds stay <3), but with no value.
SCORE: Bill Stewart wants to prove a point but his offense is a bit plodding unless the run attack wakes up. Wilson’s performance may be the ultimate key, + or -. The WV defense is better than NC St’s and might dictate play. Beyond that, WV has a negative bowl momentum trend. For us, we lean with WV but it’s never wise to lay points with this type of HC. We’ll watch the line movement. For now, WV 27-24.
Game 10 Champs Bowl (Orlando) NC State – West Virginia 12/28
As we expected, NC St had a turnaround year, going 8-4. Still, with the Divisional title on the line they lost to Maryland. WV closed strong after a pair of early setbacks and went 9-3. They were seconds away from a BCS appearance but UConn won their game. WV’s reward, a 12/28 game and their HC put on notice that 2011 would be his last year. Which team can set aside a bit of disappointment?
Game Analysis: NC St made various attempts to run more effectively but only ended up 3.55/126. Greene and Haynes have talent but with the SR QB the run to pass ratio was not good. NC St ran 37-139 vs. UCF and 36-160 vs. Cincy. Even when they did hit 4.0 it was vs. teams that usually allow far greater. WV allowed 3.7+ - 90 per game. LSU and Syracuse ran for about 4.5, near their averages, but UConn, Louisville and Pitt were held way down. We expect NC St to be stopped here. WV disappointed on their run O at 4.0/167. We projected 4.95. Devine was banged up and ran 884-4, with 6 run TD’s. Game by game #’s went pretty much as expected. NC St was projected at 4.6 on their run D but excelled at 3.6/124. VT and FSU broke through but most others went below their usual averages. While WV could surprise us and regroup, the prediction here is just 42-149. On the passing front, QB Wilson hit 58% with a 26-14 ratio. 5 players caught 3 or 4 TD’s so he really spreads it around. 7-12 games were 61% or >, while 5-12 were 51.5% or less. WV’s pass D slipped a bit to 57.5%, which is still fine. WV has not faced that many QB’s like this one, and based on seasonal totals we expect Wilson to hit 60%, but with 1 or 2 interceptions. On offense, WV hit 65+% with a nice TD to interception ratio. Louisville, LSU and Syracuse stopped them, but the other 9 were better. NC St is vulnerable through the air and allowed 61%. WV’s QB won’t throw picks and Sanders, Austin and company have talent. WV will hit 60+ here and maybe much more. NC St scored 27 or > 11 times and had a nice 30+-26 point ratio vs. 9 bowl teams. WV had a 26.5-12.5 point ratio that changed to 20.5-14 vs. 7 bowl teams. WV never allowed more than 21 points in any game!
Other stats, trends and game keys: NC St recovered 16 fumbles, which may or may not be random. They have a 40-34 sack ratio. The PK was 17-22 with 4-4 over 40 yards. The special team unit is susceptible to blocks however. WV allowed just 3 run TD’s! They had a 40-25 sack ratio and will try to put pressure on Wilson since they will likely not respect the NC St run game. Their PK was 10-15, and 2-5 from 40-49 yards. Can WV run on NC St? Can Wilson survive the pass rush of WV and therefore have the super pass %? WV is the slight rush and point pick (if the odds stay <3), but with no value.
SCORE: Bill Stewart wants to prove a point but his offense is a bit plodding unless the run attack wakes up. Wilson’s performance may be the ultimate key, + or -. The WV defense is better than NC St’s and might dictate play. Beyond that, WV has a negative bowl momentum trend. For us, we lean with WV but it’s never wise to lay points with this type of HC. We’ll watch the line movement. For now, WV 27-24.
