Air Force to test TCU Horned Frogs defense
The unstoppable force meets the immovable object Saturday evening in Ft. Worth when the nation's leading rushing attack comes face-to-face with one of the top defensive units in the country. TCU, fifth in the first BCS rankings, is an18½-point favorite against Air Force which just fell out of the two human polls. Andy Dalton and the Horned Frogs look to ground the Falcons and keep their BCS title hopes alive.
Bettors should get a better sense of just how good No. 4 TCU’s defense really is when the Horned Frogs (7-0 SU, 3-4 ATS) host Air Force (5-2 SU, 2-5 ATS) at Amon Carter Stadium on Saturday night (8 p.m. ET).
Look, all of us are handicapping college football betting odds to cash slips week-in, week-out, but we also have our eyes on potential BCS teams and matchups. Essentially, we’d love to pick the winner for Saturday’s MWC battle between the Frogs and Falcons, but we also need to do our homework on Texas Christian if it continues on its current BCS Bowl pace.
The Frogs come into Saturday’s game with the best scoring defense (9.3 PPG) in the country. TCU also ranks in the top 10 nationally in total defense (second, 218.3 YPG), pass defense (second, 128.0 YPG), and run defense (ninth, 90.3 YPG).
Pretty good stuff, until you consider the Frogs play in the Mountain West, where their competition has been pretty slack lately.
Before all you non-BCS conference lovers start shooting off about how I’ve downgraded TCU and the MWC in general, let me say this: Yes, the Mountain West is a stronger conference than the Big East. But there’s no way the Frogs deal with the opposition a team in the SEC or the Big 12 does on a weekly basis.
It’s next to impossible to know how solid is Texas Christian’s defense. The Frogs have outscored their opponents 103-3 over their last three games, but they played Colorado State, Wyoming, and BYU.
At 83rd in the country, the Rams had the top-ranked offense of the three. The Cougars are in a down year, as evidenced by their 31-3 loss at TCU last Saturday. As for the Cowboys, they sport the worst offense in all of college football.
The good news for Frogs backers is they fared pretty well against BCS conference opponents before the MWC schedule began. In three games in Fort Worth, Texas Christian defeated Oregon State 30-21, Texas Tech 62-7, and Baylor 45-10.
Also lost in the shuffle of the Frogs’ potentially impressive defense is an offense that’s 15th in total yards (467.3 YPG), 10th in rushing (254.3 YPG), and seventh in scoring (40.1 PPG).
Air Force isn’t a juggernaut by any stretch, and it’s certainly been overvalued since its close loss to Oklahoma, but it should give TCU’s defense a test.
Using the triple-option, the Falcons lead the land in rushing (346.9 YPG), and are 13th overall offensively (470.1 YPG). Quarterback Tim Jefferson Jr. is always a threat to run under center, and running back Asher Clark is solid as the first option.
Air Force dropped its fifth straight game against the number (2-3 SU) in its 27-25 loss at San Diego State (+1) last Saturday, but it posted 302 yards on the ground.
Jefferson had 88 yards rushing on 15 carries, while Clark finished with 116 yards on 19 attempts with a touchdown. The former did struggle through the air against the Aztecs, however, going 13-of-30 for 175 yards with a score and an interception.
The disparity in passing games should be the difference against the spread on Saturday. TCU is listed as an 18- or 18½-point favorite depending on the outlet (one Vegas shop has the Frogs laying 19 points), and it should be able to cover the number.
Texas Christian knows what’s coming, remember. The Frogs have dealt with the Falcons’ run-heavy triple-option for years, and they’ve fared well for bettors. TCU is 5-2 ATS and 6-1 SU in the last seven meetings between the schools, although Air Force covered as 10-point home underdogs in a 20-17 loss to the Frogs last season.
The total opened at 48½, and it was available at 49 at some shops as of press time. The ‘under’ appears to be the sharp wager: The Falcons are 2-5 O/U this season, and are 2-6 O/U in their last eight games as an underdog. The ‘under’ is also 10-1-2 in TCU’s last 15 games on grass.
The unstoppable force meets the immovable object Saturday evening in Ft. Worth when the nation's leading rushing attack comes face-to-face with one of the top defensive units in the country. TCU, fifth in the first BCS rankings, is an18½-point favorite against Air Force which just fell out of the two human polls. Andy Dalton and the Horned Frogs look to ground the Falcons and keep their BCS title hopes alive.
Bettors should get a better sense of just how good No. 4 TCU’s defense really is when the Horned Frogs (7-0 SU, 3-4 ATS) host Air Force (5-2 SU, 2-5 ATS) at Amon Carter Stadium on Saturday night (8 p.m. ET).
Look, all of us are handicapping college football betting odds to cash slips week-in, week-out, but we also have our eyes on potential BCS teams and matchups. Essentially, we’d love to pick the winner for Saturday’s MWC battle between the Frogs and Falcons, but we also need to do our homework on Texas Christian if it continues on its current BCS Bowl pace.
The Frogs come into Saturday’s game with the best scoring defense (9.3 PPG) in the country. TCU also ranks in the top 10 nationally in total defense (second, 218.3 YPG), pass defense (second, 128.0 YPG), and run defense (ninth, 90.3 YPG).
Pretty good stuff, until you consider the Frogs play in the Mountain West, where their competition has been pretty slack lately.
Before all you non-BCS conference lovers start shooting off about how I’ve downgraded TCU and the MWC in general, let me say this: Yes, the Mountain West is a stronger conference than the Big East. But there’s no way the Frogs deal with the opposition a team in the SEC or the Big 12 does on a weekly basis.
It’s next to impossible to know how solid is Texas Christian’s defense. The Frogs have outscored their opponents 103-3 over their last three games, but they played Colorado State, Wyoming, and BYU.
At 83rd in the country, the Rams had the top-ranked offense of the three. The Cougars are in a down year, as evidenced by their 31-3 loss at TCU last Saturday. As for the Cowboys, they sport the worst offense in all of college football.
The good news for Frogs backers is they fared pretty well against BCS conference opponents before the MWC schedule began. In three games in Fort Worth, Texas Christian defeated Oregon State 30-21, Texas Tech 62-7, and Baylor 45-10.
Also lost in the shuffle of the Frogs’ potentially impressive defense is an offense that’s 15th in total yards (467.3 YPG), 10th in rushing (254.3 YPG), and seventh in scoring (40.1 PPG).
Air Force isn’t a juggernaut by any stretch, and it’s certainly been overvalued since its close loss to Oklahoma, but it should give TCU’s defense a test.
Using the triple-option, the Falcons lead the land in rushing (346.9 YPG), and are 13th overall offensively (470.1 YPG). Quarterback Tim Jefferson Jr. is always a threat to run under center, and running back Asher Clark is solid as the first option.
Air Force dropped its fifth straight game against the number (2-3 SU) in its 27-25 loss at San Diego State (+1) last Saturday, but it posted 302 yards on the ground.
Jefferson had 88 yards rushing on 15 carries, while Clark finished with 116 yards on 19 attempts with a touchdown. The former did struggle through the air against the Aztecs, however, going 13-of-30 for 175 yards with a score and an interception.
The disparity in passing games should be the difference against the spread on Saturday. TCU is listed as an 18- or 18½-point favorite depending on the outlet (one Vegas shop has the Frogs laying 19 points), and it should be able to cover the number.
Texas Christian knows what’s coming, remember. The Frogs have dealt with the Falcons’ run-heavy triple-option for years, and they’ve fared well for bettors. TCU is 5-2 ATS and 6-1 SU in the last seven meetings between the schools, although Air Force covered as 10-point home underdogs in a 20-17 loss to the Frogs last season.
The total opened at 48½, and it was available at 49 at some shops as of press time. The ‘under’ appears to be the sharp wager: The Falcons are 2-5 O/U this season, and are 2-6 O/U in their last eight games as an underdog. The ‘under’ is also 10-1-2 in TCU’s last 15 games on grass.
