N. Texas (0-3) vs. Florida Atlantic (1-1) thoughts

[ramones951]

Thinking of making a big play on FAU at -10. The line opened at -5 and has been steadily increasing since then.

North Texas is down to their 3rd string QB after their 2nd stringer was injured this past weekend. They also lost their starting center and a wide receiver in that game.

Down at FAU, Rusty Smith's successor Jeff Van Camp has been improving every game. In games against UAB and Michigan state, where FAU were 14 and 28 point dogs respectively, Van Camp is 38 for 60 with 4 TD's and only 1 INT. FAU does have a rather weak defense, but it they have been facing offenses far superior to North Texas.

FAU was off this past weekend so they will have 2 full weeks to prepare for this game, and it is their home opener.

The only thing that scares me is that 70% of the public is on FAU, and I hate making plays on the popular public choice, and usually don't end up betting on them.... What do you guys think?

[CMangano]

Ya, I am kicking myself for not betting on this when it was -5. I still think -10 is too low though and still a good bargain. I just would have loved it way more at -5.

[Ralphie Halves]

I heard somewhere that the 3rd string QB for NoTex is actually a WR. Any truth to this? Not good when you run a spread offense.

Got shut out by Army, and FAU is a comparable team, maybe slightly better. -10 sounds just fine.

[M.W.]

Ralphie, he was moved to WR this year because of shoulder injuries that limited his ability to throw the ball. He was the starting QB last year, however.

I bet this game at -6, and I guess I still like it at -10, but one thing really bothers me. How can I bet a favorite that is allowing its opponents to gain 7.4 yards per rush? I don't know, but I did it anyway. Good luck if you play it.

[Ralphie Halves]

Ralphie, he was moved to WR this year because of shoulder injuries that limited his ability to throw the ball. He was the starting QB last year, however.

I bet this game at -6, and I guess I still like it at -10, but one thing really bothers me. How can I bet a favorite that is allowing its opponents to gain 7.4 yards per rush? I don't know, but I did it anyway. Good luck if you play it.

Riley Dodge, that's right, I actually remember that. Yeah, I love -10 now.

[daprospecta]

im on the over

[TPowell]

I had this game lined at FL Atlantic -7.5 but with the injuries, I would almost call it a no-play

[harlee71]

Riley Dodge, that's right, I actually remember that. Yeah, I love -10 now.

Coaches son on top of that.

[The General]

Laying the 10 when open at 5 is tough. You are betting into a real bad number off of the opener. Good thread and best of luck. I just couldn't bet the line after such a move. Seems a decent general rule of thumb.

Thanks for sharing, though.

[ACCBlitz]

After analyzing the hell out of the N.Texas/Clemson game (obviously covering Clemson there), I'd say watch out for the Mean Green.

BUT.

With Dodge at QB, they are NOT good. Not even close. Their RB Dunbar is the real freakin' deal, but he won't be able to hold off FAU by himself.

I'm going against line movement protocol and taking FAU -10. BOL to everyone

[scoobs]

It's a no play for me.