(sometimes spreadsheet doesn't update/show my most recent pick, so I don't post it, like in my Nevada thread)
I know this is not the best line, but it may be the best line and price I can get this late. This could be +5.5 at most shops before kick. The best I could hope for at this point would be a +6.5 at about -115 to -120, so I'm fine taking it at this line/price.
I have a few angles to take the Owls here.
1) Home Dog - Home dogs, getting low to a moderate amount points, are usually always pretty solid bets.
2) Public Fade - The public has been all over UCONN in this spot. SBROdds currently shows 66%, and was as high as 75%. Covers is currently showing 68%. Sportsbook.com (the squarest book out there) currently shows 87% and I believe was around 92% earlier in the week. I think there could be still a "square" perception among these bettors that UCONN is still the decent, sleeper type team that won in ND last year and shared the Big East title a few years back. I'm not too sure UCONN will fair all that well this year, even in the miserable Big East. I really don't think the public has good reasoning to lay 6 points on the road in this spot.
3) Line Movement - This opened +4 and moved to +6 very quickly. But for this to open at +4 in the first places says Vegas has some respect for Temple here. Ever since it's opening and move to +6, the public has been pounding it virtually non-stop. So why then has it stayed basically at 6, even moved down to 5.5 and 5 at some shops? Right now, it's +5.5 +100 at Pinny. That speaks volumes to me, considering it's +6 pretty much everywhere else. At Matchbook (basically the best lines/prices you can find), +6 is getting juiced -106 with +102 on the -6. Greek has it +6 -115 on a 20 cent line. Both interesting, cause it's getting pounded, but it hasn't moved in a few days, and is now getting gouged. Either the books are confident to take a stand at +6 against the public and UCONN, or "sharps" are keeping it there, and are accounting for the no movement/small RLM, good either way.
4) Trends - I'm not a big trend guy, but I see some things I like here. Temple is 5-0 ATS against UCONN in the last 5 meetings, which includes a 12-9 SU loss on a +7 spread in Temple in 2008, and a 22-17 loss on a +31.5 spread in UCONN in 2007. It's obvious Temple has given UCONN problems, and now they're getting 6 points at home in a game they could SU win; that's hard to pass up.
5) Will UCONN be up for this game? - UCONN is coming off an absurd 62-3 win over Texas Southern. Typically, it's pretty hard for a team to respond on the road against a comparable team after they just laughably destroyed a nobody. It's just hard to keep focused and hungry, cause it becomes like a joke and then you have to get right back to competing. It happens all too often that a team destroys a nobody at home, and then gets slapped around in the next game on the road, see Cal on Friday.
6) Others - UCONN has 18 returning starters to UCONN's 16; both teams have their QB back from last year. I'm also seeing a lot of injuries for UCONN. It's reported that LB Scott Lutrus will be out, along with DE Marcus Campbell and WR Geremy Davis, who were confirmed out before this. Also, the Temple D could be important. Temple is 26th in stopping the run, giving up just 91 ypg; it will be important to stop UCONN's 27th ranked rush O, putting up 222 ypg. Temple is 54th in Total D.
Good Luck.
