NCAAF Betting: NC State hosts Cincinnati
The Big East has taken a big bite out of college football bettors' wallets the first two weeks of the 2010 season, cashing just three of 16 lined games so far. The Cincinnati Bearcats will try and get the conference back on track when they travel to Raleigh for a Thursday meeting against the North Carolina State Wolfpack. The Bearcats are two-point underdogs to the 'Pack, with ESPN providing the midweek telecast.
We knew the Big East was going to have a hard time this year. But 3-12-1 ATS after two weeks? That takes suckage to a whole new level.
Too bad, because the Cincinnati Bearcats had a nice little program going there. They won all 12 of their regular season games last year (6-6 ATS), led by one of the very best offenses in the nation – No. 4 in the FBS according to Brian Fremeau’s efficiency stats. Brian Kelly handily won his third straight Big East Coach of the Year award.
But he won’t win a fourth; Kelly left Cincinnati in December to take over the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, and the ‘Cats lost the Sugar Bowl 51-24 to the Florida Gators (-12) in his absence.
We’ve seen this movie before. The Louisville Cardinals (Bobby Petrino) and West Virginia Mountaineers (Rich Rodriguez) lost their head coaches; the Cardinals fell apart under Steve Kragthorpe, but the Mountaineers have managed to hold their own with Bill Stewart at the controls. Which path will the ‘Cats take under Butch Jones?
It looks rather shaky at the moment. Cincinnati is one of four Big East teams to start the season at 0-2 ATS, losing 28-14 to the Fresno State Bulldogs (-2½ at home) and beating the Indiana State Sycamores (an FCS team from the Missouri Valley) 40-7 as a 44-point home chalk. The ‘Cats were up just 12-7 on the Sycamores at halftime.
Let’s not put this all on Jones, however. Cincinnati also has a new starting quarterback in junior Zach Collaros, who played very well last year in relief of Tony Pike. But his development curve threatens to be cut off by an offensive line that lost its two most important players to graduation, center Chris Jurek and left tackle Jeff Linkenbach. Without their protection, Collaros was sacked eight times by Fresno State, and the win over Indiana State was the result of 263 yards of offense on the ground.
“We’re going to run the football when we can,” Jones told the Cincinnati Enquirer after beating the Sycamores.
This Bearcats team in transition is making the short turnaround to face the North Carolina State Wolfpack on Thursday (ESPN, 7:30 p.m. ET) in Raleigh. The ACC has had its ups and downs so far this year, but the Wolfpack are one of two teams at 2-0 SU and ATS – the Maryland Terrapins are the other. The Pack’s victims thus far: the Western Carolina Catamounts (+33) of the FCS Southern Conference, and the UCF Knights, who lost 28-21 on Saturday as 3-point home faves against the college spread.
While Cincinnati’s program appears to be taking a step back, the Wolfpack is looking for a breakthrough in its fourth season under Tom O’Brien, who previously led the Boston College Eagles to a high of No. 18 in the AP rankings in 2005. Here’s what the Pack have done under O’Brien:
2007: 5-7 SU, 5-7 ATS
2008: 6-7 SU, 9-2-1 ATS
2009: 5-7 SU, 5-6-1 ATS
Last year was supposed to be a big one for N.C. State, but the offensive line was once again at fault. The Wolfpack actually finished No. 11 overall in offensive efficiency, but only No. 92 in rushing (120.9 yards per game) and No. 24 in passing (272.9 yards per game). On top of that, the defense was a mess without linebacker Nate Irving, who missed the season after suffering a broken leg and a collapsed lung in an automobile accident.
Corrections have been made. The offensive line is better, although still in need of improvement after allowing three sacks by the Catamounts. But the Wolfpack ran for a respectable 134 yards against UCF, and the defense (anchored in the middle by Irving) held the Knights to 95 yards rushing while creating five turnovers. These are very good signs for the Pack as they prepare to host the Bearcats; the betting odds have swung heavily toward the home side, moving from Cincy -1 at the open to N.C. State -2 at press time.
The Big East has taken a big bite out of college football bettors' wallets the first two weeks of the 2010 season, cashing just three of 16 lined games so far. The Cincinnati Bearcats will try and get the conference back on track when they travel to Raleigh for a Thursday meeting against the North Carolina State Wolfpack. The Bearcats are two-point underdogs to the 'Pack, with ESPN providing the midweek telecast.
We knew the Big East was going to have a hard time this year. But 3-12-1 ATS after two weeks? That takes suckage to a whole new level.
Too bad, because the Cincinnati Bearcats had a nice little program going there. They won all 12 of their regular season games last year (6-6 ATS), led by one of the very best offenses in the nation – No. 4 in the FBS according to Brian Fremeau’s efficiency stats. Brian Kelly handily won his third straight Big East Coach of the Year award.
But he won’t win a fourth; Kelly left Cincinnati in December to take over the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, and the ‘Cats lost the Sugar Bowl 51-24 to the Florida Gators (-12) in his absence.
We’ve seen this movie before. The Louisville Cardinals (Bobby Petrino) and West Virginia Mountaineers (Rich Rodriguez) lost their head coaches; the Cardinals fell apart under Steve Kragthorpe, but the Mountaineers have managed to hold their own with Bill Stewart at the controls. Which path will the ‘Cats take under Butch Jones?
It looks rather shaky at the moment. Cincinnati is one of four Big East teams to start the season at 0-2 ATS, losing 28-14 to the Fresno State Bulldogs (-2½ at home) and beating the Indiana State Sycamores (an FCS team from the Missouri Valley) 40-7 as a 44-point home chalk. The ‘Cats were up just 12-7 on the Sycamores at halftime.
Let’s not put this all on Jones, however. Cincinnati also has a new starting quarterback in junior Zach Collaros, who played very well last year in relief of Tony Pike. But his development curve threatens to be cut off by an offensive line that lost its two most important players to graduation, center Chris Jurek and left tackle Jeff Linkenbach. Without their protection, Collaros was sacked eight times by Fresno State, and the win over Indiana State was the result of 263 yards of offense on the ground.
“We’re going to run the football when we can,” Jones told the Cincinnati Enquirer after beating the Sycamores.
This Bearcats team in transition is making the short turnaround to face the North Carolina State Wolfpack on Thursday (ESPN, 7:30 p.m. ET) in Raleigh. The ACC has had its ups and downs so far this year, but the Wolfpack are one of two teams at 2-0 SU and ATS – the Maryland Terrapins are the other. The Pack’s victims thus far: the Western Carolina Catamounts (+33) of the FCS Southern Conference, and the UCF Knights, who lost 28-21 on Saturday as 3-point home faves against the college spread.
While Cincinnati’s program appears to be taking a step back, the Wolfpack is looking for a breakthrough in its fourth season under Tom O’Brien, who previously led the Boston College Eagles to a high of No. 18 in the AP rankings in 2005. Here’s what the Pack have done under O’Brien:
2007: 5-7 SU, 5-7 ATS
2008: 6-7 SU, 9-2-1 ATS
2009: 5-7 SU, 5-6-1 ATS
Last year was supposed to be a big one for N.C. State, but the offensive line was once again at fault. The Wolfpack actually finished No. 11 overall in offensive efficiency, but only No. 92 in rushing (120.9 yards per game) and No. 24 in passing (272.9 yards per game). On top of that, the defense was a mess without linebacker Nate Irving, who missed the season after suffering a broken leg and a collapsed lung in an automobile accident.
Corrections have been made. The offensive line is better, although still in need of improvement after allowing three sacks by the Catamounts. But the Wolfpack ran for a respectable 134 yards against UCF, and the defense (anchored in the middle by Irving) held the Knights to 95 yards rushing while creating five turnovers. These are very good signs for the Pack as they prepare to host the Bearcats; the betting odds have swung heavily toward the home side, moving from Cincy -1 at the open to N.C. State -2 at press time.
