MartinBlank's 2010 CF Picks Week 2 (Write Ups)

[MartinBlank]

Lesson learned last week.

Importance of line shopping will always be the difference between a winning weekend and a losing one. Last week I was convinced the Notre Dame-Purdue line would creep up toward 12---so I jumped on 11.5 midweek. WRONG. The Purdue money brought that line all the way down to 10.5 at kickoff and it cost me a chance at a winning weekend.

This week it is the same routine. 5 games. Here they are.

#1. Florida Atlantic +28 v. Michigan State (BetJam) Risking 110 to win 100.

How's this an idea for a home game? Florida Atlantic is leaving the gorgeous weather of south Florida to take their home date to----of all places---gulp--Detroit to take on Michigan State.

28 points is an awful lot of lumber to be laying down with the most inconsistent team in the Big 10. Michigan State always seems to have a way of playing down to their level of competition, and I expect that to continue this weekend against Florida Atlantic.

Western Michigan had some success throwing the football against Michigan State, and I think Florida Atlantic can have the same success. The Owls have walked this path before. In 2007 they beat Minnesota, and Schnellenberger knows a thing or two about coaching.

Last week the Owls won in dramatic fashion, blocking a 28 yard FG as time expired to beat UAB 32-31.

Michigan State on the other hand rolled WMU, 38-14---getting a short FG with 7 minutes left to cover the number by a few points.

Michigan State had a balanced attack against WMU---getting solid production from their running and passing game but its the defense that I think Michigan State backers need to worry about.

Florida Atlantic is fast, and they have some very good skill position talent. FAU will get their points, and I just don't see Michigan State being able to get into the mid-50's.

Breaking it down is simple. FAU will get their points---they will be able to throw on MSU and if they get to 24----MSU needs 53 to get a cover. I don't see that happening.

My first pick is Florida Atlantic +28.

[MartinBlank]

Pick #2. Wake Forest (-6) v. Duke (BetJam) Risking 110 to win 100.

The Deamon Deacs are my second selection, and I loved this number when I first saw it. Both of these teams began their 2010 season by playing weak teams---Wake Forest took on Presbyterian, and Duke played Elon.

Wake ran at will in their 53-13 win, gaining over 400 yards on the ground, and a total offensive output of over 500 yards. Duke struggled considerably more in their 41-27 win over Elon. In fact, the Blue Devils only led 27-20 in the 4th quarter and Elon had the ball in Duke territory. Elon moved the ball pretty well against the Blue Devils----gaining over 400 yards, including 125 yards on the ground. The shocking statistic though was Elon's average per rush----6 yards per carry!!

Jim Grobe of Wake Forest is a very good football coach, and his semi-wing T offense will give the Blue Devils fits. The Deacs will chew up large chunks of yards with their dynamic and unique rushing approach and I just don't see Duke being in this game. The Blue Devils are small up front on defense, and they aren't very good in their front 7.

This line is 6---I am grabbing it now because I am convinced this climbs as gametime approaches.

Breaking this one down in the simplest terms. Wake can run the football, Duke can't stop the run. Wake is good along their OL, Duke isn't so good. David Cutcliffe is one of my favorite coaches in college football because he is a really good guy, but he is outmanned and outgunned here. The Deacs win by double digits.

[ZBOIZ]

I love that Wake Forest play. I actually got it at -4 with my local

[M.W.]

You left out the part about Elon being 30+ points better than Presbyterian. I think the over is the best play in that game.

[MartinBlank]

You left out the part about Elon being 30+ points better than Presbyterian. I think the over is the best play in that game.

Elon may be 60 points better than Presby. In fact, I should have noted that Presby is the absolute worst team in the Big South.

Duke still shouldn't be in a tight game with them in the 4th quarter.

The very best FCS team in the country----Villanova lost to Temple.

Elon is probably a top 15 FCS team----any team in a BCS conference like Duke---shouldn't be in a tight game with a team that seats 800 students per home game (Exaggeration noted).

[wal66]

Good luck Martin and looking forward to reading the rest.

[MartinBlank]

Pick #3. Alabama (-12) v. Penn State (BetJam) Risking 110 to win 100.

When I break down a game, I try to make look at the opposite side of my selection and try to make a case for the opposing team. In this game, I tried every way imagineable to make a case for Penn State keeping this game close, and just can't find one.

Every criteria any bettor can come up with favors Alabama. Alabama has edges at QB, OL, DL, Coaching, and location. To make matters worse for Penn State they are starting a true freshman QB on the road against perhaps the toughest place to play right now in college football. And if that weren't enough? It is a night game on national television.

Alabama will be without Mark Ingram, but really does it matter? Trent Richardson will get the bulk of the carries, and for those of you who don't know who he is, think back to the National Title game against Texas---Richardson was the back that Texas couldn't catch all night long.

Penn State has a respectable defense, and that may keep them in this for a quarter or so, but eventually the Tide will wear down Penn State and the points will come.

I expect Penn State will have a gameplan as vanilla as they come----in spots like this, Penn State likes to limit their mistakes and keep the game close. That is their only choice, especially given their QB situation. Robert Bolden was impressive in his first start last week, but let's be serious, Youngstown State?

Breaking this game down is easy. Alabama----big, strong, fast, insanely talented at every position. Penn State---freshman QB on the road making his first start against non-high school competition (yes, I am including Youngstown State in that statement).

Nick Saban won't allow his team to be flat. The lumber is laid down, Alabama -12 is my 3rd selection.

[MartinBlank]

Pick #4. South Carolina (-3) v. Georgia. (Greek) Risking 110 to win 100.

Taking the ole ball coach in this matchup of SEC rivals. I am not a big fan of Stephen Garcia---the kid makes way too many mistakes, but I am willing to give him a shot in this spot because I think he is catching Georgia at a good time for South Carolina.

Southern Miss got their yards against South Carolina in last Thursday's opener, but that is misleading. South Carolina had clearly built a comfortable 24-6 halftime lead and were well on their way to winning the game.

What impressed me most about South Carolina's performance in that game was two things----Garcia didn't throw a pick, and South Carolina didn't make any dumb South Carolina penalties that they have done so in the last few years. Spurrier is clearly not the same coach who dominated the SEC with Florida---but he is still a good enough coach in this spot. If Spurrier doesn't win with this group of seniors he has now, he won't ever get it done in South Carolina.

Georgia is still without their All-American WR--AJ Green. Green was suspended for selling his game-used jersey for some extra ching in the off-season. The biggest thorn for Georgia will come under center. Bulldog Qb Aaron Murray is playing his first road game as the Georgia starter---and SEC fans aren't like Big 10 fans---SEC fans tend to make it difficult for opposing QBs---especially first time starters.

Bottom line in breaking it down. South Carolina at home, laying a relatively small number against a new QB, and a very suspect Georgia defense.

[MartinBlank]

Update.

Today is starting very good.

Florida Atlantic got the cover.

South Carolina got the win and the cover.

Today: 2-0

Net $: +200.00

[MartinBlank]

Third play of the day pushed.

Wake Forest -6.

Today: 2-0-1

[MartinBlank]

Alabama finished the day for me.....not a loss on the card.

3-0-1 for the weekend.

[talnted]

nice write ups best of luck.

[masr]

nice saturday!