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dam so much for that teaser texas got there ass kicked...Comment -
Not trying to hate but I feel like this system does not produce as well as just simply evaluating teams and not using any specific filtersComment -
Not sure if it's a reliable angle to look at, but I was thinking about betting against TEXAS and on NEBRASKA and I didn't. Both won (ISU and NEBRASKA) Texas got their win and was happy, and nebraska was pissedComment -
Week 8 plays:
Filter A: Stanford (-34.5) LOSS
Filter B: Texas (-21.5) LOSS
YTD:
A: 5-5
B: 1-3
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6-8Comment -
A very bad weekend all around...Comment -
70kgman seemed to have disappeared. I'll try to keep this going.
Week 9 plays:
TCU -35.5 (A)
Ohio St -25.5 (B)
YTD:
A: 5-5
B: 1-3
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6-8Comment -
These are correct. Hopefully these start to turn around. For whatever reason they aren't really panning out this season. Last season there were only 4 combined losses between the 2 filters all season long. Also on pace to get nearly double the amount of plays this season than last season. Could be the growing number of running quarterbacks and all the wildcat stuff skewing all these YPC averages.Comment -
hopefully a big bounce back this weekend...Comment -
2-0 this week. next week...
Filter A: Oregon -28
Filter A: Michigan St. -24Comment -
very good - thanksComment -
yes was nice i teased both of them!Comment -
WOW oregon was some great value when I locked it on monday for -28! The line is -35 now....Comment -
1-1 for this week... Do you have next weeks plays yet?Comment -
1-1 this week. The loss was another near miss that was just a couple points away from covering. That seems to be the trend this season.
11/12
Filter A - Air Force -31.5
Filter A - Wisconsin -21.5
Filter A - Nebraska -34.5
Filter A - Boise St. -35
Filter B - Illinois -20.5
YTD:
A: 7-6
B: 2-3Comment -
Thanks, those look good.Comment -
BOL this weekComment -
If I am not mistaken we went 2-3 this week... Anyone have next weeks plays?Comment -
These are the plays, but to be honest, I think I am just going to be tracking for the rest of the year and not actually putting money on them. The system just seems to be 50/50 this year. There have been quite a few bad beats and near misses, but just the fact the system seems to be producing twice as many plays this season as any other year sort of makes me think the angle might be skewed now due to changes in the game (mainly style of play).
Filter A - Oklahoma St. -22.5
Filter A - Nevada -37.5
Filter B - Hawaii -30Comment -
And of course the first week I decide to stop playing them for real money they go 3-0. Isn't that always how it goes?
If anyone is playing these til the end, or wants to see them for any other reason, these would be next weeks plays...
Filter A - Northern Illinois -23
Filter B - Hawaii -26.5
Filter B - Missouri -24.5
Filter B - San Diego St. -24.5
A - 11-8
B - 3-4Comment -
i like NIU and hawaii.Comment -
Tough break 70kg. Thanks for keeping the thread alive though.Comment -
good luckComment -
Dam that sucks I didnt play them either....Comment -
keep it going, its interesting to see how it will pan out by the end of the year.Comment -
I still like the angle. Though I think it needs to be modified for next season. In my opinion, the heavy increase in running QB's and wildcat stuff these last few years in college football is skewing the running averages and making them less accurate for the angle of this system. This is probably why the system is producing far more plays than any other year. The concept of the system is for these big favorites to ideally get a big lead by halftime, and then mainly use their running game to run clock in the 2nd half, thus exposing bad run defenses to run up the score and keep the other team off the field in the process. And late in the game running out clock, the running game mainly comes from the running backs, not QB runs. The system isn't bad or anything this year, it is still up 3 or 4 units so far, but finding a way to eliminate QB running averages from the mix should make it much stronger and bring back it's edge.Comment -
Ill give it a shot.. Ive got a system.. bet Boise State no matter what the spread is!!Comment -
I was kind of hoping to see Wisconsin -23 in your mix. They are pretty much defined by the running game. Old school power football. And Northwestern gave up 591 yards rushing to Illinois last week. The Illini were breaking off some really big runs. For Wisconsin, it appears the key to their running game is their massive offensive line, even more so than their talented running backs. So even with Clay out against Michigan, and even with them running their 2's, 3's and 4's against Indiana, the offense was still potent.
My biggest concern with Wisconsin is they can go to sleep on you for a half or so. Did this in the first half against Purdue. Did it in the second half against Michigan. Beat Michigan 28-0 in first half, then basically traded points with them in the second. Michigan winning 2nd half by 4.
Northwestern on the other hand is thin and tends to wear down in the 4th quarter. Persa -- their starting QB who I believe was also their leading rusher -- is out and his replacement is a freshman who went 10 for 20 passing last week. Not the kind of high-scoring spread like Michigan has that did put up points in the 2nd half. Thinking of buying Wisky down to -21. I'd appreciate any feedback you might have on this K-man.
I was also looking at Hawaii but decided to lay off. The game starts at the equivalent of 7 a.m. Hawaii time. That's a little early for a high-flying offense to get up to speed.
Happy Thanksgiving and BOL to everyone on their plays this weekend.Comment -
It's been talked about before on a different forum about teams that out rush their opponent 2 to 1, have covered at around 75-80% over the past 3-4 years. It's possible that sportsbooks are picking up on this as well and thus have inflated the spreads enough to try and bring in that percentage which may have accounted for all of those tough losses this year? Regardless, I definitely think these rushing numbers play a major role in handicapping college games.Comment -
I think your reasoning sounds pretty solid to me. Northwestern also have been pretty bad on the road this season (1-4 ATS) which helps. Two things I also like to look at when capping college football games is SOS and how many home/away games each team has played to that point. Both teams have played 5 away and 6 home so no advantage there, but Wisconsin has had the more difficult schedule, so looking at statistics alone, you can give Wisconsin even more of edge than what you see on the surface because they have put up those numbers against tougher opponents.Comment -
Nice write up..thanks for the tipComment -
70kgman, you may have answered this already, so I apoligize if I am being redundant, but why is the system only limited to 20+ point underdogs? Wouldn't the theory behind the system also work with smaller favorites?Comment -
Sorry. Missed this question earlier. The reason it only works in concept with large 20+ favorites is because those games are going to be blowouts the majority of the time. And most of the time these big favorites are going to have large multiple possession leads by halftime. So the 2nd half you are going to see far more running from them than passing. In a close game (or projected close games), you are going to have a balanced attack of running and passing from start to finish which isn't going to exploit the bad run defenses as effectively.Comment -
Anyway, system went 4-0 this week. It is now 7-0 over the last two weeks. Guess it just took a while to get going, I guess as the stats accumulate week after week and average out more, the system gets stronger later in the year.Comment
