Okay, I guess I will share my NCAAF system/strategy

[TheCommish]

Sounds interesting enough to pay attention to. I like at least 2 of the games you listed anyways, so this is good.

[3PtShooter]

3 interesting plays,,,,good luck

[KASHMAN24]

Wow. This is the best system I have ever heard of. It makes sense and they are all independent plays. I gonna go huge on Boise. I already liked it. I was hoping Nevada over unlv fit. That is my biggest play in week 5. Nevada only favored by 19. They average 5+yards per carry and UNLVgives up 4+ yards per carry. It would be a b bet

[Hawk007]

Thanks for posting 70kgman, I love a good system.

[70kgman]

Note: Get them as soon as the lines come out, as the line usually continues to climb in favor of the favorite. You will typically get an extra 0.5 - 3 points of value wagering on the opening line most of the time.

See what I mean about the line movement? It is only Tuesday and Boise St. and UCLA have already moved 2 points, and South Florida 1 point. Lots of value getting these as soon as they come out each week. Just think how much it would cost to buy all those extra points...

[dume walker]

See what I mean about the line movement? It is only Tuesday and Boise St. and UCLA have already moved 2 points, and South Florida 1 point. Lots of value getting these as soon as they come out each week. Just think how much it would cost to buy all those extra points...

So when can we expect you to post these games so we can jump on these lines early? And thanks again for the work you put into this and for sharing it with the rest of us.

[70kgman]

So when can we expect you to post these games so we can jump on these lines early? And thanks again for the work you put into this and for sharing it with the rest of us.

I will have them posted by Monday afternoon each week.

[surftex]

Found a near miss match-up:

Auburn(-35) over U. Louisiana-Monroe
Auburn run avg /carry of 5.6 to Louisiana-Monroe def. avg./carry of 3.8.

Do you ever allow for any flexibility in the requirements in order qualify more match-ups, such as discrepancy in avg yds/carry vs avg. def. yds/carry?

Anyway, thanks for sharing. Very interesting!

[70kgman]

Found a near miss match-up:

Auburn(-35) over U. Louisiana-Monroe
Auburn run avg /carry of 5.6 to Louisiana-Monroe def. avg./carry of 3.8.

Do you ever allow for any flexibility in the requirements in order qualify more match-ups, such as discrepancy in avg yds/carry vs avg. def. yds/carry?

Anyway, thanks for sharing. Very interesting!

This system started as somehting much more broad, and has been tweaked and filtered little by little over the last 5 years until I came up with the finalized filters that isolated the best plays. But feel free to experiment with your own expansions if you want.

p.s A defense averaging 3.8 yards per carry against is actually quite good, so I wouldn't consider that anything close to a "near miss" to be honest. 3.8 may not sound like it is too far away from 5, but over a large sample size, it is.

[jose21_us]

as long as nothing crazy happens in the Boise game we should go 2 for 3. Will take that all day!!!

[Flight]

So you are placing bets with complete disregard to the actual position of the line? ie If the line were -34 instead of -24, it doesn't matter, the system says "play it" ?

I caution all those that decide to follow.

[doublej95]

looking like 2-1 to start your system, good job.

[70kgman]

Good start. Both wins were the Filter A plays (2 units). So 2-1, +2.90 units.

[Wrecktangle]

nice start, thanks.

[khaden]

Nice start

[cakasmaloy]

Thx

[70kgman]

Hmm, far more plays this week than I have have ever seen with this system. There were only nine filter A plays in total all of last season, already seven after two weeks this year.

Week 6

Filter A: Oregon -34.5

Filter A: TCU -35

Filter A: Air Force -23

Filter A: Wisconsin -21

Filter A: Ohio St. -23.5

Filter B: Vanderbilt -23.5

[dume walker]

Congrats on the 2-1 start, K-man. Let me admit that I was wrong about South Florida not covering. Only one that concerns me now is Ohio State. Not sure what Pryor's condition will be. If he'll play at all and if he does how mobile he'll be or how quick they'll look to pull him, especially since they have to go up to Camp Randall the week after.

I know your filters take in run stats and defensive stats. Do they factor in injuries at all? I mean, a team could have great stats; one of the stars who contributed to those stats is suddenly out, but the filters don't pick up on it because his absence is yet to be felt in the numbers you calculate.

[dume walker]

Also to point out re: injuries... Your one pick that lost Saturday was UCLA, where their starting QB sat out the game due to injury.

[70kgman]

Congrats on the 2-1 start, K-man. Let me admit that I was wrong about South Florida not covering. Only one that concerns me now is Ohio State. Not sure what Pryor's condition will be. If he'll play at all and if he does how mobile he'll be or how quick they'll look to pull him, especially since they have to go up to Camp Randall the week after.

I know your filters take in run stats and defensive stats. Do they factor in injuries at all? I mean, a team could have great stats; one of the stars who contributed to those stats is suddenly out, but the filters don't pick up on it because his absence is yet to be felt in the numbers you caculate.

If a top running back is going to be out, I will usually void that play at my own discretion. I checked all these teams injury reports beforehand and no running backs were listed for any team. An injury to any other position I don't pay attention to, the linesmakers will make the necessary adjustments, and this system relies solely on running stats (stats that go under the radar in the linesmaking process in my opinion, which gives it it's edge).

[70kgman]

Also to point out re: injuries... Your one pick that lost Saturday was UCLA, where their starting QB sat out the game due to injury.

Yeah, I noticed the QB injury for UCLA, he wasn't ruled out of the game until late in the week, and the line dropped from 27.5 to 24 because of it. Nothing I could really do about that one since I rely on getting these on the opening line for value. Just some bad luck really and had to settle to laying a couple more points that I should of rather than the other way around.

UCLA's defense was the reason they didn't cover that game, they really played a bad game...gave up a lot more points than they should of, forced no turnovers, and never gave the offense good field position. UCLA's offense did what I expected them to and what the system expected of them, if the defense even played an average game, the offense would of scored a lot more than 42 points and covered easily. It happens. Even though it lost, it still made me feel pretty good about the play.

[dume walker]

If a top running back is going to be out, I will usually void that play at my own discretion. I checked all these teams injury reports beforehand and no running backs were listed for any team. An injury to any other position I don't pay attention to, the linesmakers will make the necessary adjustments, and this system relies solely on running stats (stats that go under the radar in the linesmaking process in my opinion, which gives it it's edge).

Not to be a pain about this, but Pryor is Ohio State's leading rusher, even though he's not listed as a running back. Reason I'm apprehensive about this was my biggest bet this past Saturday was Ohio State -18. They won by 11. Illinois scored on the first drive but after that OSU held them to just 2 field goals. I think they could have handily beaten the spread. But once Pryor got injured they put in the backup QB who on his first play threw an interception. They got Pryor in the game and went to a strict running game using the running backs, not Pryor -- who is their biggest running threat. Even the announcers couldn't figure out what Tressel was doing. After the game Pryor admitted his leg hurt so bad he could not run and could barely pass. They put him in that game, it seems, for his experience with game management. And maybe to force Illinois to keep a man on him to make sure he didn't take off running.

Anyway, you see my point. Pryor's not listed as injured yet, but sometimes that decision doesn't get made till near the end of the week. UCLA is another case in point. Prince was listed as questionable all week. Line opened at -24.5 went up to -27. On Friday, line suddenly plunged 3 points. Evidently, word got out that day that Prince would definitely sit the game.

Just something to ponder...

[dume walker]

BTW, I was composing my previous post while you were doing yours about UCLA. Sorry if there was some crossover there.

[jorge1]

Sounds like a great system bro...really does...imma give it a go this week...

BTW, have you tried the reverse to find good 20+ or worse dogs? For example, if they have really good run defense, and the fave isnt too good running the ball, have you ever thought of a system or filter to find good dog plays?

thanks

[70kgman]

BTW, I was composing my previous post while you were doing yours about UCLA. Sorry if there was some crossover there.

I noticed Pryor on the injury report listed as day-to-day. Typically if a key RB or running QB is questionable/day to day, I will take my chances and play it. But of course, that is my preference. I will let everyone else playing these in some form use their own judgment regarding injuries, or deciding to play or not play lines that have already moved a bit.

[70kgman]

Sounds like a great system bro...really does...imma give it a go this week...

BTW, have you tried the reverse to find good 20+ or worse dogs? For example, if they have really good run defense, and the fave isnt too good running the ball, have you ever thought of a system or filter to find good dog plays?

thanks

I do remember looking into something like that along the way. Wasn't anything there, a team that is a big underdog, has a great run defense, going against a (big favorite) poor running offense is a situation that will come up as often as a blue moon.

[shroomysoup]

Cool system. I will give it a shot. A couple of questions:

1) Do you take into consideration the underdog's offensive production or just look at their rushing defense?

2) Do you take into consideration the favorite's rushing offense?

[MBP22]

Loved your plays this week, will tail again this week. Wasnt TCU a 20+ fav last week? If so why wasnt it listed? Just curious......great system, ready to eat my books biscuits again this week!

[70kgman]

Cool system. I will give it a shot. A couple of questions:

1) Do you take into consideration the underdog's offensive production or just look at their rushing defense?

2) Do you take into consideration the favorite's rushing offense?

Nope and nope. The linesmakers will take care of that. This system relies on stats that go under the radar a bit and applies them to situational games where they have the most value. At least in concept anyway, and past results cant prove that theory wrong.

Loved your plays this week, will tail again this week. Wasnt TCU a 20+ fav last week? If so why wasnt it listed? Just curious......great system, ready to eat my books biscuits again this week!

They weren't playing a team that averaged over 5 yards per carry against on defense at the time.

[dume walker]

Left points again in appreciation for the work you do and sharing it with us. So... Is the better nickname for you k-man or 70 keys?

[70kgman]

Left points again in appreciation for the work you do and sharing it with us. So... Is the better nickname for you k-man or 70 keys?

Thanks. K-man sounds pretty catchy, and Cosmo Kramer surely does it need it anymore.

[CLASSIC ROCK]

I like this system,think I'll hang around for awhile.good luck this week

[mtltitans2]

2-1 start thanks for the picks/system

[Bartmeister]

Good luck! I was hoping you would of hit the BetJamaica contest, good luck next weekend!

[Saintsfan1]

Went 2-0..laid off UCLA...I took all of them this week..Good Luck all.