Sides: 7-7-1, +.12
Totals: 6-2, +3.7
ML: 1-1, +.25
YTD: 14-10-1, +4.07
2* New Mexico +7: This is the biggest game of the year for New Mexico, as they get the defending conference champion, a team I don’t feel is nearly as good as a year ago, at home. The Lobos should be 4-0, instead suffering their lone defeat at UTEP 10-6 in a game in which they outgained the Miners nearly 2:1, yet squandered several opportunities in the red zone. These are two evenly matched teams: BYU is slightly better defensively, both feature very talented, yet largely inexperienced QB's, but I think NM has a decided advantage at the skill positions, where they feature the best RB and WR tandem in the MWC in Rodney Ferguson, Travis Brown and Marcus Smith. This figures to be a close, competitive game throughout, and I'll gladly take the TD cushion.
2* Arizona -1.5: It’s easy to assume by this line that the oddsmakers feel WSU is the better team and would be favored on a neutral field. I’m just not seeing it. After a disappointing performance in the opening game against BYU, Arizona’s new spread offense has shown steady improvement over the last 3 contests. The offense, led by the underrated Willie Tuitama, should continue to perform well against a WSU defense that I have ranked as the worst in the Pac 10. Arizona’s defense has struggled a bit against the likes of Cal, whose offense is loaded, and a very good New Mexico offense, but there’s too much talent on the defensive side of the ball for the play to not get better. WSU will put up some points, but I think they will need to score on almost every possession to keep up with AU, as the Cougars’ defense is just that bad. Arizona played their best game of the season in a 27-17 victory on the road against WSU last year, in which they held the Cougars to just 45 yards on the ground, and I expect Zona to take care of business again in a game in which Mike Stoops can’t afford to lose if he hopes to keep his job beyond this season.
2* Georgia Tech +3: Do or die game for GT. You lose consecutive games, one to BC, far and away the premier team in the ACC, and another a hard-fought game on the road to a very talented Virginia team, and suddenly you’re a home dog against a very flawed Clemson squad? Sure, Clemson’s been relatively impressive, but this is their biggest test to date. I mean, Clemson looked great last season as they jumped out to a 7-1 start and appeared headed to a BCS bowl, only to implode down the stretch. That doesn’t necessarily mean it will happen again, but I’m not at all sold on this Clemson team. Lost in GT’s defeat to BC was the fact the Yellow Jackets held the Eagles’ Callender and Whitworth, RB’s that closely rival the talents of Clemson’s Davis/Spiller tandem, yet receive nowhere near the same publicity, to 102 yards on 29 carries (3.51 YPC). GT’s defense will be able to focus even more carefully on containing Clemson’s running attack than they did against BC, for as good as Cullen Harper’s numbers are to this point, he’s still unproven on the road in conference play. There’s no shame in allowing 400+ passing yards to Ryan, one of only three QB’s who can make a legitimate claim to being the best QB in the country (Woodson and Brennan being the others), but Harper is no Matt Ryan. Not even close. GT would have been a 4-5 pt. favorite had this game been played in week 1. Has that much changed in the first 4 weeks that Clemson is a 3-pt. road favorite? I don’t think so. I see GT winning this game outright, but I’ll take the 3-pt. cushion as added insurance.
Totals: 6-2, +3.7
ML: 1-1, +.25
YTD: 14-10-1, +4.07
2* New Mexico +7: This is the biggest game of the year for New Mexico, as they get the defending conference champion, a team I don’t feel is nearly as good as a year ago, at home. The Lobos should be 4-0, instead suffering their lone defeat at UTEP 10-6 in a game in which they outgained the Miners nearly 2:1, yet squandered several opportunities in the red zone. These are two evenly matched teams: BYU is slightly better defensively, both feature very talented, yet largely inexperienced QB's, but I think NM has a decided advantage at the skill positions, where they feature the best RB and WR tandem in the MWC in Rodney Ferguson, Travis Brown and Marcus Smith. This figures to be a close, competitive game throughout, and I'll gladly take the TD cushion.
2* Arizona -1.5: It’s easy to assume by this line that the oddsmakers feel WSU is the better team and would be favored on a neutral field. I’m just not seeing it. After a disappointing performance in the opening game against BYU, Arizona’s new spread offense has shown steady improvement over the last 3 contests. The offense, led by the underrated Willie Tuitama, should continue to perform well against a WSU defense that I have ranked as the worst in the Pac 10. Arizona’s defense has struggled a bit against the likes of Cal, whose offense is loaded, and a very good New Mexico offense, but there’s too much talent on the defensive side of the ball for the play to not get better. WSU will put up some points, but I think they will need to score on almost every possession to keep up with AU, as the Cougars’ defense is just that bad. Arizona played their best game of the season in a 27-17 victory on the road against WSU last year, in which they held the Cougars to just 45 yards on the ground, and I expect Zona to take care of business again in a game in which Mike Stoops can’t afford to lose if he hopes to keep his job beyond this season.
2* Georgia Tech +3: Do or die game for GT. You lose consecutive games, one to BC, far and away the premier team in the ACC, and another a hard-fought game on the road to a very talented Virginia team, and suddenly you’re a home dog against a very flawed Clemson squad? Sure, Clemson’s been relatively impressive, but this is their biggest test to date. I mean, Clemson looked great last season as they jumped out to a 7-1 start and appeared headed to a BCS bowl, only to implode down the stretch. That doesn’t necessarily mean it will happen again, but I’m not at all sold on this Clemson team. Lost in GT’s defeat to BC was the fact the Yellow Jackets held the Eagles’ Callender and Whitworth, RB’s that closely rival the talents of Clemson’s Davis/Spiller tandem, yet receive nowhere near the same publicity, to 102 yards on 29 carries (3.51 YPC). GT’s defense will be able to focus even more carefully on containing Clemson’s running attack than they did against BC, for as good as Cullen Harper’s numbers are to this point, he’s still unproven on the road in conference play. There’s no shame in allowing 400+ passing yards to Ryan, one of only three QB’s who can make a legitimate claim to being the best QB in the country (Woodson and Brennan being the others), but Harper is no Matt Ryan. Not even close. GT would have been a 4-5 pt. favorite had this game been played in week 1. Has that much changed in the first 4 weeks that Clemson is a 3-pt. road favorite? I don’t think so. I see GT winning this game outright, but I’ll take the 3-pt. cushion as added insurance.
